best value team to win the superbowl!

I love wildcard weekend, proper play off football and every chance of some kip on Monday night !
I'll be with Saints, Packers and Ravens, and I'm toying with the idea of getting with Jets who are a team I dislike but their wildcat/trickery could easily fool one of the worse run defences around, and if Revis and Cromartie step up Manning will run out of ideas and I can see him having a 2 or more turnover day, 2.26 to win outright is a price I like

Help - Thomas and Ivory done for the season, Saints have officially no running game hence the lack of love for their superbowl chances

jets packers ravens saints for me.

i think steelers are the better value.....if the bears keep up their good form the saints could have 3 road games then the superbowl,dont think they are much value now,i have 18s

im just going against the eagles and if they prove me wrong im happy [;)]

horse i havent read much news this week..is pierre done?

Yes mate, place on IR yesterday.
Only 2 RB on their roster, Julius Jones who's had 48 carries all season (9 for 19 yards last 3 weeks) and Reggie Bush who had good numbers against the Buccs last week but against the Ravens 2 weeks earlier actually managed 4 carries for negative yardage

That makes things interesting..pierre  killed the game off v atlanta when they needed him to get key 1st downs...massive blow...if they win do they go to atlanta?if so advantage atlanta imo

Yep, big loss. I can't discount Saints in an game of football because of the Brees factor, his performance in last years superbowl was as good as I've seen from QB, and one thing the Saints have is decent receivers.
I'm just a believer that you need variation to your offence to win games and if you're predictable you'll come unstuck, Colts were awful on pass rush and secondary last year, not convinced the Falcs will be so generous.
Falcs around 1.7 will be a steal

how would you see the bears chances in atlanta if they met?  if it was at soldier field id take the bears with some confidence.

I have spent hours debating this with myself to the point where I have actually taken most of my money off the table. Like Harry I backed saints at 18/1 but bailed this week when their RBs were both put on IR.

I am thinking of watching this weekend as it will tell you a lot about which teams are serious contenders.
i have a small interest on the colts and ravens at this point but that is all.

Harry, I've been anti Beers all season, they have an average QB who has over performed this year, a high quality RB and solid defence, not convinced they have anything that will scare anyone and are one of only 3 teams I don't believe can will superbowl (with Chiefs and Seahawks).
Soldier Field is a massive advantage for them but even the Skins and Seaawks have been there and won this year, I also think they got very lucky against Packers, caught Eagles on a very off day, and enjoyed a fairly soft schedule, I know I could eat these words but they are the weakest team with a bye IMO and will go one and done come divisional weekend

Anti Bears even - haven't been anti beers since Jan 88 !

I have been in the same anti beers club since week 3 lol......but they worry me,yes i know they have had a few bad results at home,but they have improved a lot since then....they have this habit of getting big turnovers...the jets looked like they had them and then a collapse...special teams seem to get them out of trouble.

Do we know the colts injury status? They are a very big price

just looked at the cbssportline.com playoff schedule..it has saints packers or eagles at chicago..same for the other fixtures...whos playing who lol... i think the jets are going to win in indy,i dont like the jets but think they may do it.

Yep, Chargers fans will tell you there's no point having the best ranked offence and defence if your special teams are going to undo all the hard work.
Bears have 2 things in their favour, home field advantage (for div weekend) and a healthy roster, but as a punter how would you price Bears/Eagles or Bears/Saints ?
I'd be pick em v Eagles and probably Bears 1.80 v Saints, but if Bears were to host Packers for NFC Championship game I think Packers would be favs

its a headache [smiley:crazy]  its hard to price it as someone may put in a fantastic performance this week...id say chicago would be shorter v saints than the eagles,especially if the weather is bad

I can't see jets winning against the colts. The colts have got a running game going now and this apparently great jets secondary has been torched all season. In a shootout can't see Sanchez matching manning.
The colts are one to watch IMO.

d13 - absolutely, if it becomes an aerial shoot out there's only one winner and it ain't Sanchez.
True they got Rhodes and Addai fit but they're not elite backs IMO, they put up good numbers against an inconsistent Oakland line and did OK against the #26 ranked Tennessee run defence last week.
I agree the Jet secondary hasn't been as good as it was last year but they're still ranked #6 and were missing Cromartie and Revis for a few weeks and Revis played hurt as well.
I just got a hunch that against the Colts run defence they can move the ball and take time off the clock limiting Mannings time.
They're the sort of team who can completely blow up so I won't be playing spreads but 2.26 seems a nice price where the matchup is IMO favourable

Colts don't need elite backs though - they just need half a running threat so Manning can use some play-action to buy some extra time in the pocket. Their problem so far has been that they have had zero rushing game this season so opponents have known that Manning is going to throw because he has had no other option. Without Addai/Rhodes I would fancy a Jets upset but this game is one to stay away from IMO

I wouldn't be judging how good / bad the bears are by how the Jets came unstuck against them.  The Jets are an awful team imo and are very lucky to be in the playoffs. I know every1 seems to be writing of the Colts against them this week, I think the Colts will win and don't see the bears doing fcuk all either.  Have to think the steelers are the team, the match against Baltimore was brilliant, they hung around all day and when it came to crunch time they got the job done.  Was very impressed with big ben that night, he took a hiding but got straight up for more every time.

big ben seen it done it been there 1 tough hombre who will stick in there all day 2 make a play.

I just got a hunch that against the Colts run defence they can move the ball and take time off the clock limiting Mannings time.

Are you not concerned with the colts run D stepping up in recent weeks.  They have shut down CJ, MJD, and McFadden.  LT isnt running the way he was at the start of the year either.

Still, my gut is saying Jets too for some reason.  Hopefully Rex will finally figure him out!

But for those of you who like the colts ouright, Pinnacle are going 15/1 on them winning the AFC.  Seems a much better bet than superbowl @ 22/1.

can't remember who they were playing but a recent pass-interference call not given to the Steelers finally made me think the conspiracy theorists were onto something - it was absurd... and costly.

Im not surprised the colts run D stopped CJ.he likes to get to the outside which suits the colts as they have so much speed,you have to run it up the middle against them....been thinking the jets all week,im going to wait for the lineups to be named,see who the colts have available

it was vs the jets anton it wasnt that costly in the end as they had 2 win 2 of there last 3 to finish 2nd seeds which they did hpoe people are wrong about these conspiracys will have 2 wait & see.

hope* ffs

anton_chigurh
can't remember who they were playing but a recent pass-interference call not given to the Steelers finally made me think the conspiracy theorists were onto something - it was absurd... and costly. 

No-one ever mentions the 1st down that the Steelers got in that game despite only gaining 9 yards!

People are obsessed with conspiracy theories

new england @ 2/1 i think may be value....

Ed Reed situation sounds bad...MVP of that D imho too

i think the colts at 25s is actually huge, have a sneaky feeling they just might do it this year

Austin collie being done is a big blow...hard to call this game,dont think the colts would win it even if they come thru this game.

any thoughts on what price they will go to if they come through this game ,


25s at the min?

wouldnt like to say..14s? all depends how good they look etc..cant see them going to pitts and them most likely new england and winning

big ask for them, hoping for a decent trade if they go through,

was think more 18s but 14 will do lovly

16s most likely..14s a bit short with who they have to face

what price saints if they win big !!!

saints price wont budge much after tonight i cant imagine, not against a weak hawks team

fancy the eagles 2 go 2 the superbowl do u think its best 2 back them now or wait till after the saints/ seahawks game ?

Atlanta fans and backers loving this

Anyone in NFC is loving this.
I can't have Colts, nowhere near the team that won the thing 4 years ago or got to superbowl last year

im taking the jets later....

I know I'm hedging somewhat, but for me its

Patriots or Steelers   vs  winners of Packers/Eagles

Need to calm down the seahawks

steelers for me

Glad I laid the saints now - phew
Would have lost a ton tonight!

What a shock...after that no team should be below 5s [smiley:crazy]

Pats below 2s

New England are the value at 2.84.

The playoffs are full of very average teams they have to beat the jets again which of course they did in style in week 13. It will surely be closer but still.

The hardest game will be next against most likely Pittsburgh but if not Baltimore.

Think Green Bay might give them most to do if they make it to the superbowl but really cant fear any team in the NFC they have all been beating each other all year and are very average.

Atlanta at 7.8? Were 6 before the game! Honestly, this is an overreaction of the highest proportions.

how  so....atlanta getting the packers rather than seattle...

Green Bay now shorter than Atlanta?

What will it take for this market not to love an ordinary team.

atlanta deserve respect.

They were 7.8 at the start of the week when it was all but given they would face New Orleans.

Instead - the Saints are out of the competition and they are facing, in my opinion, a poorer opponent but in general, not a massively better team.

And yet they are a higher price?

Can understand Pittsburgh's drift but Atlanta's is crazy - but their price has been ridiculous all year anyway.

Looking like packers will be favourites in Atlanta rightly or wrongly

Packers were 2.12 when at Atlanta in week 12, will be interesting to see how the price compares this time round.

packers are not a poorer team than the saints

I just don't rate the Packers. Have had running battles with the market all year (San Diego, Green Bay, Chicago and Atlanta.) Been more right than wrong upto now, but in one off games...

i dont know what you want from a team tbh...they have excellent secondary....good pass rush qb and receivers,even found a running game.

it pains me to say but i agree with harry

think they could go all the way but tough game against falcons

after tonights showing you gotta say the team to beat is the pats, packers good in the fh but were shocking under P in the second , eagles with a little more sence would have won that game , never mind the to fg misses, packers are a huge lay imo

the pack are sound...won more easily than score suggests tonite..will take a proper team to beat them....falcons?....nope.

Falcons is a proper team ffs, better every week on D, all round on O...
Packers week side on the D (sill good) is run D and short passes in the middle...Turner will have another good one vs Pack and Tony G will be hard to stop...they have the tools to stop White however. Falcons favs imo in a close one

Moaner has a huge red on the Pack, must be sweating now are brushing aside Vick and co. Average team indeed

That game tonight was way way closer than the Eagles deserved. Jones catches that pass end of the 2nd and the game was done at HT. Packers controlled the virtually the entire game. That was impressive.

The worry for the Packers is that they should have closed that game out long before the final whistle.

The Eagles were the width of Brent Celek's foot away from converting that 2-point conversion which meant that they would have only needed a FG to bring the game into OT. Then Vick still had a shot at the EZ which the Packer corner did very well to intercept.

They can't afford to dominate matches like that and still leave the opposition a 2-min drive at the end of the 4th quarter to win the game. Hands up who doesn't think that Brady or Roethlisberger or even Matt Ryan wouldn't have won that game last night.

I laid the Pack as insurance at 1.15, so that's probably your answer, seen it all to often this year. Putting teams away after controlling games has been a big issue, evidence by GB's continued loss by 4 points or less, usually when they've held a lead in the 4th.

Their defence was huge last night, although didn't get the regular turnovers they usually would. The offence played ok, not superb  (apart from Starks & Rodgers who were excellent), Jennings & Jones only 1 rec each, Driver and Jones both had easy drops, and the amount of fumbles was worrying. That said, they subdued Vick and got the win.

ATL v GB is a tasty match up with a **** paper between them in terms of quality, can't wait.

Think people are just trying to pick holes in teams performances....its not as if they were playing the panthers.the eagles are no mugs,only criticism i have is mccarthy should of been more positive on their last drive...its the playoffs,you are supposed to win tight games,look at the saints,they are out....matt ryan needs to do it in big playoff games not regular season games...we may see next week.

btw how many packers fans were crapping themselves on that play where vick found desean in the middle of the field..thought he was going to take it to de house.

Every GB fan will have been nervous but it's something you are accustomed too because it's all regular with McCarthy.......as good as he's coached his team this year his conservatism in his play calling with a lead is a flaw in his make up.

That's the main reason that the Packers are in lots of close games, it's been the same throughout his tenure in Green Bay.

It's infuriating to watch many games and realise that the Packers are clearly the more talented team but fail to put teams away due to the head coach not putting his foot on the gas when he has a lead.

Totally agree, if the roles were reversed & GB were 4th and 1 on the goal line needing 2 scores, he would 100% have taken the 3 points.

Was a brave call by Reid, but the one every fan would've called.

chingachgook Joined: 19 Feb 09
Replies: 1059 03 Jan 11 04:44   
1/2 1/2 and 1/3 in the final = 2/1
right price imo

looking like they'll be sub 1.35 in 1st conference game
yes the 2/1 was value

If only mike had a bit of the sean payton in him they wouldnt get into this kind of trouble Heart in mouth time when vick hung that pass up...imagine if tramon had slipped lol

Not DaBears... 9.6
Go Seahawks [:D]

i am still in shock after the loss to saints! how in the world did Seahawks pull out the win ?!

thats why i love NFL; you never know who will win[;)]

Mike mayock on commentary was a bonus....he did point out,well this was when the saints were behind,that the last time they met the game was closer than the scoreline...matt hass also killed the saints D in that match even though he only threw 1 TD,he had 366 yards, lynch coughed the ball up twice on that day..no idea if he fumbled in the redzone

'The worry for the Packers is that they should have closed that game out long before the final whistle'

Spot on IMO.
I am a Pack backer but a more street wise team would have killed that game before H/T, go in 3 TDs up and breeze through the second half, they created problems for themselves that otehrs wouldn't.

Opening line Falcs -1.5, moved up to 2, which is reflected in the superbowl market where Falcs are 7 and Pack 8

Pats @ 2.75.  Now that is too short.

As a pats backer, I have a bad feeling about this jets game.  Ace's gut rarely wrong!

Can anyone explain the irrational drift on the Falcons whilst they stay at the same price in the Match Odds?

No good explanation...market has Falcons as huge outsider in the superbowl of some reason

The Prophet Of Profit Joined: 11 Jul 07
Replies: 49 12 Jan 11 06:50 
Pats @ 2.75.  Now that is too short.

As a pats backer, I have a bad feeling about this jets game.  Ace's gut rarely wrong!

ace must be seething...did you listen to yer gut and lay

jets@steelers gonna be a classic game imo...hard to call..have to go with big ben tho and that steelers D will shut down the running game which will put it in sanchez hands

Steelers are going to have their second Dynasty in a couple of weeks!

[:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D]

We shut out Manning and the Colts / Shut Brday and the Pats. Ben and the Steelers ? Will be over by the 3rd quarter. Ben will hveno targets and willb be feeling a lot of dirt hitting his back !!

Packers price is built around the markets hte for the Bears - they were underated all regular season, sneaked the #2 seed, have homefield advantage in the championship game yet are the outsiders of the four ? ? ?
Seahawks didn't show up for 3 quarters and even if they had done they wouldn't be strong enough in all areas to dominate the game, 7-9 doesn't lie, but the way the Bears allowed them back into the game is worrying for Bears fans. Did they get complacent ? Take their foot off the gas ? Who knows, but a largely toothless Seattle were allowed to get back into a game that was dead and run up 170 odd yards and 21 4th quarter points.
Packers looked serious in all areas but I can't remember a road team in the championship game being fav for superbowl - backed into 2.82 now.
Pittsburgh look the best value for me at 3.15 though the prices suggest Packers would be around 1.75 and Steelers 2.2 for superbowl

should the Packers meet Steelers in Dallas.

Sorry - always a good idea to finish your message before hitting send

firstly well done on beating the pats, secondly dont make the same mistake the ravens made by thinking the game was over by the 3rd quarter the steelers play 4 sixty minutes its never over till the last nail goes in, as 4 the QB who will be feeling dirt on is back, ermm let think about that....... GL sunday here's 2 a great game may the best team win !!!

Much and all as I would love the Jets to beat the Steelers, I think the Steelers will win for 2 reasons:

1. The Jets beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 15 and the Steelers will be out for revenge for this defeat. I just can't see any team beating the Steelers twice in Pittsburgh in the same season.

2. The Jets were so pumped up for last Sunday that defeat was almost out of the question. They beat the enemy in their own backyard and subconsciously they will feel that that was their Superbowl right there.

Steelers for me but I hope the Jets can prove me wrong.

I think this will be close but i give the edge to steeler nation...ben had a chance to win the game late in the last meeting....mendenhall rushed for a 100 yards,the dangerous wallace had 100 yards receiving,i believe he is the key man for pitts,very explosive...jets got off to a flyer in the last meeting with the kick off return...sanchez didnt even throw for 200 yards and the running game they depend on will be shut down by the best run D and then you have the TROY factor who i  believe missed the last meeting,correct me if im wrong?

your right harry he came back 4 the last game @ the browns hes still not fully fit but at this time of the season you've got 2 get out & play, think it will be close again, fat rex as got them fired up, but think steelers edge it offense playing well lol the D as good as ever u dont run on pittsburgh & sanchez 2 throw a pick, if the steelers avoid turnovers they will win imo.

As a Steelers fan, obviously I'm biased. But I can think of 5 reasons why the Steelers will reverse the Week 15 result:

1. Troy Polamalu will be playing.
2. Heath Miller will be playing.
3. The Steelers cannot possibly concede an easier kick-off touchdown return as they did at the beginning of the first game.
4. Bruce Arians cannot possibly call as stupid a play as that which resulted in Mewelde Moore being tackled in his own end-zone, thus conceding a safety.
5. Surely, when Antonio Cromartie commits a pass interference foul against Emmanuel Sanders at the four yard line again on Sunday, officials will have no choice but to throw their flags this time. (Not that I'm still bitter about that call. Honest! [;)] )

it didnt matter in the end look forward not back my friend, steelers

the best thing is that we know that it will be an even match:) looking forward to both matches..

go green bay[:)]

Harry - nah, i never trade out of my bets (trading out is for weak willed individuals imo). Atlanta was the only worry for my book, so im glad theyve gone.  Got small winners on steelers and bears, an ok win on jets, and a big win on the packers. 

If its a bears v steelers superbowl, ace might not watch.  What a dull fest that would be.  You just know it would be some sloppy 17-10 win for the steelers that ends with hines ward grinning like a buffoon.  Please god no.

Jets v Packers superbowl best for neutrals.

lol prophet..weak willed individuals

17-10 2 win 4 the steelers that ends with hines ward grinning like a buffoon, god i do hope so that would be the prefect end 2 the season

if its a pack steelers bowl il have a nice book...remember that post steelcurtain...where i told u who wins superbowl lol [;)]

i remember hope u clean up, both games should be crackers, got monday off work so will be getting pi$$ed 1 way or the other cant wait 4 sunday night 2 come round