North American
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Hi Guys
As you may remember from last season when this proved very rewarding this is what the public think.
The Golden Rule is if any team is fancied by 70% or more of punters then you should look to oppose them as hey, what do the public know!
This week sees 5 teams above the 70% mark and worryingly are the two teams i fancy the most!
Cincinnati 81.5%
New England 77.4%
Washington 75.9%
Green Bay 71.7%
Pittsburgh 70.2%
All thougts more than welcomed!
As you may remember from last season when this proved very rewarding this is what the public think.
The Golden Rule is if any team is fancied by 70% or more of punters then you should look to oppose them as hey, what do the public know!
This week sees 5 teams above the 70% mark and worryingly are the two teams i fancy the most!
Cincinnati 81.5%
New England 77.4%
Washington 75.9%
Green Bay 71.7%
Pittsburgh 70.2%
All thougts more than welcomed!
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5 teams are now 2 teams?
I assume you meant to say your two high picks fell under your 70% rule? |
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What profit did it show last year?
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Skins and Packers have potential banana skins but the other 3 have to be certanties.
The Pats line has moved from 11 to 15, I reckon they've got a point to prove an will win by 20+, Bills are just an awful football team right now |
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the strike rate last season was about 64% off of the top of my head.
I massively like Pittsburgh and New England tonight personally but this is the rule!! I would say the first two weeks can be a watching brief and we will go for the next 15 regular weeks and see what it hits. |
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”Fighting Irish” NFL Preview & Betting Advice for Week Three (Sun 26th Sept)
Not the greatest start prediction wise last weekend. With the patriots getting turned over by the jets and the cowboys completely fluffing their lines againt a resurgent chicago team it was a strange kind of weekend. The saints struggled to put away a beligerent 49ers side who really upped their game in response to head coach SIngletary questioning his teams desire after a shocking week one performance. Nonetheless the reigning superbowl champions still found a way to scrape a win despite their much vaunted offence under performing for a second week in a row. They will be further blunted by the unfortunate loss of star playmaker Reggie Bush for a minimum of six weeks with a broken leg. They should still have enough on offense to progress to the playoffs when they will hope Bush will be returning to give them some fresh impetus but Brees really needs to take a hold of this offense and show the kind of qualities that made him superbowl MVP. Elsewhere the Redskins threw away a huge lead to an improving Houston team that lead the league this season in rushing. Considering that they lead the league last year in passing they are getting together a seriously balanced offense and face the misfiring Cowboys this week. Looking ahead to this week and again focusing on the Live TV games to start with we are going to see more of the Saints as they play host to the Atlanta Falcons. This looks like another difficult one for the saints. The falcons have got off to a great start and wont fear what they have seen from the saints on offfense this season. Matt Ryan is also quite a handful and could prove to be a tough matchup for the saints defence. He is hard to get pressure on as he doesnt hang on very long in the pocket and delivers the ball quickly. The saints defence are not the biggest but they are quick and do tend to make big plays which have helped out the offence considerably this season. Considering even the largest defencive units have difficulty getting to Ryan I think New Orleans speed in the secondary and ability to turn the ball over on defence could stand them in good stead against Atlanta. Combine this with how difficult they are to beat in the Superdome and the fact that this offence is too good to keep stuttering and I take them to to cover the -3.5 offered by boyles and re-establish themselves as the big dogs against their division rivals. In the second game this evening Peyton Manning brings his colts to Denver. I dont like the older Manning and therefore constantly under rate him. Last week (as he is most weeks in fairness) he was absolutely stunning and handed his younger brothe Rest on http://www.sportsnewsireland.com/2010/09/26/%E2%80%9Dfighting-irish%E2%80%9D-nfl-preview-betting-advice-for-week-three-sun-26th-sept/ |
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you still owe me some money....................!!
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yes you Sports News Ireland........
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anyway, less of chasing my debts.
So, last week saw 3-2 ATS on this system. At present just 4 teams reaching the magical 70% and they are as follows : Houston 76.5% Cincinnati 74.5% (interestingly second week in a row they appear) NY Jets 74% Indianapolis 70% Of the four I am looking at the top two, ironically, to be the ones to let punters down this week. |
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I'd been on a major heater all week, but the Champions League, something one would expect, with amazing liquidity, and analysis, would be a no-brainer, wrecked my roll.
Anyway. Decided to leave off betting til Sunday again, with one outstanding bet on West Ham, and one 7-fold acca, of which 3 results are already in... Now, I mention this here, because of the remaining 4, 3 are NFL, obv! So... needing Collingwood in the AFL first thing, 5. Carolina + 13.5 6. Ravens +2.5 7. Falcons to win.... Those are my 3 picks, and should the 4 come in, I'll have a bet on the Bears later that night. Good luck all. |
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bears phins double for me this week hopefully 2 late nights entertainment
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Minor correction above.... Seems I have Carolina +13... which I am certainly less enamoured of than the 13.5 elsewhere. Still, given the utter pants performance of the erstwhile hero Saints, who made me a mint in the SB I might add, I'd take +10.5 just as quickly.
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Jimmy, a little tweak you might want to consider.
84% of the time the team that covers the spread also wins. So it's worth looking at how betting these teams SU might work. Last week, the Rams and the Bears got home at 2.75 and 2.35 respectively. GL. |
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Houston 75.8%
Cincinnati 72.1% Indianapolis 71.3% NY Jets 70.2% Last week 3-2 so lets see what happens today! |
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2-2 this week, going on 5-4 for the season so far since week 3
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SU
Cin 2.43 Kax 7.14 |
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SU
Cle 2.43 Jax 7.14 |
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Morning All, this week just the three to look to oppose :
New Orleans 78.7% Atlanta 74.1% Green Bay 70.6% So far we are 5-4 ATS going against the teams 70% and higher favoured by the public |
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Where do you get your numbers from Jimmy? Ones I'm looking at show 5 over 70%
Chargers 80%, Saints 82%, Packers 83%, Falcons 80%, Texans 70% |
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You are RIPPING IT UP, Jimmy
 Picks SU Ari @ 3.7 Was @ 2.3 |
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Not sure you are getting enough credit for this fred.......great stuff.....very interesting
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was it a clean sweep last week, I have been so busy this week I did not check.
anyway, this is late for today..... only one. Indianapolis 71.2% It is worrying to me that I am also against this pick. As normally I do not like it when I agree with the sentiment...maybe that's why I am classed as the 'public' |
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Tampa
kansas singles and double them up also,,im confident [:p] |
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Was @ 2.5
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kind of lost track of the stats last couple weeks, think last week was a push.
Only one this week and its : Baltimore 72% |
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still only the one, lets go against Baltimore 71.9%
Interestingly my strongest bet of the season goes today and its the 49ers -2.5 at the Panthers and they are only favoured by 63.7% of people. I believe we are 7-5-2 ATS with plenty of straight up wins, however not sure we should be going against the Ravens straight up! |
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Bills @ 7
 I think this system has legs though, Jimmy. I'm plotting various levels of consensus ATS/SU and plugging them into staking plans to see how it goes over the season. |
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8-5-2 now I believe
Only 1 outright at the moment : St Louis 74.8 but interestingly New England are 69.9 |
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I don't belive that this is the golden egg that it is made out to be
The system was 21:19 for the season last year which is a profit of 0.09 points for 40 staked Why does it matter that 70% of people think that one team is going to beat the spread. The odds don't change on the other side Fair enough if you are taking on 1.7 shots but you're not - you're taking on 1.91 shots with another 1.91 shot. Not the road to riches IMO |
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My post above reads a lot more dismissive than I meant it to
While I'm all for taking on the public I just don't see the logic in this all the way through so to speak It would make more sense to me if you identified the 70% games early on and then backed the less fancied team. Then if the odds or the spread itself moved you would have a value bet on your hands Otherwise I don't see how it's anything other than luck IMO |
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st louis the only team to reach the mark this week with a 73% figure.
Good luck everyone |
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Carolina @ 2.1 SU
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This week, 8:6:2 so far this campaign, look to go against :
New Orleans 80.3 New England 79.2 Indianapolis 70.1 |
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only two now as Indy have slipped below :
New England 77.8 New Orleans 77.2 Good luck all |
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Carolina don't look like beating ANY spread ANY week!
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Bills have been mugged. How did they manage to lose the +2.5 spread when 19 -14 up with six minutes and the ball with the QB against the awful bears. Totally miffed.
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Tampa Bay 78.6%
Philly 71.2% Arizona 70.6% for this week |
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9:7:2 for the season
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Tampa and Arizona are truly god awful home teams.
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Cardinals are 2-1 at home this season
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