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orioles
12 Sep 10 14:31
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Date Joined: 26 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 33,752 | Blogger: orioles's blog
Uncle O’s Game of the Week

San Francisco @ Seattle

Everybody’s high on the Singletary 49ers and, while I like them for the NFC West, I’m not feeling the stirring in my loins I feel for my Dave Butz signed shirt. That said, this is a solid game of the week.

Carroll and GM John Schneider have shuffled the pack in Seattle, but the sum of the remaining parts doesn’t fill me with confidence.

The 49ers are going to run the ball first as Jimmy Raye sets up the throwing game, and if Frank Gore doesn't fire, San Francisco can stutter, as they did so often last year (hence my slight reservation about their prospects for the season).

Gore had a strange time against the Seahawks last year; murdering them in the first one and then struggling on limited touches in the second.  Ominously, Shaun Hill was under centre for the first game, and Smith for the second.  However, Seattle was poor against the run last year and I expect the 49ers commitment to the run to ensure that Gore has a big game today. It's worth bearing in mind that, while he didn't seem to prosper with Smith under centre in the second game, Smith himself had a good time, throwing for 310 yards and two touchdowns.

Once the running game gets going, that should see Crabtree and Davis profit against the likes of Trufant, Jennings, old man Milloy and new-boy Earl Thomas. The pass rush from Seattle isn’t terrifying and they are going to find it difficult to improve upon last year's defensive woes when wide receivers had their way with them like Zeeny after a litre of Rakia when the fleet’s in town. Seattle was 24th in total defense (356.4 ypg) and 30th against the pass (245.4 ypg).

On offense, Seattle also have problems; Okung is out, his replacement Pitts is banged up, Hasselbeck is on the down side of the curve and wideout addition Mike Williams has arrived to rebuild his career under his former college coach. I suspect Williams will get most looks downfield as he had a decent pre-season (and there are few options!) but he will experience a much more rigorous defense than the relatively gentle zones he’s seen so far in 2010 and Clements will test his resolve. 

The Seattle O line got torn apart last year, giving up an eye-watering 41 sacks and the San Francisco linebackers will be licking their lips at the thought of getting after Hasselbeck. The 49ers led the league in forcing fumbles and are strong against the run, so I don't anticipate the Seahawks’ RBBC is going to cause too many problems and while Seattle will want to test the secondary, I doubt Matt will get that West Coast timing going under so much pressure.

The 49ers have the skill players and the power to put a hurting on the wing clipped Seahawks and, giving up just three points, San Francisco look the standout bet of the first week.  I like Crabtree and Davis to score and Hasselbeck should be in for a torrid time.  Remember, it is early doors, so if you’re sufficiently unhinged to follow my picks, don’t go too big. Enjoy!

Pick: SF -3

Pick: 1st TD (Anytime TD) Crabtree @ 10 (2.7); Davis @ 10 (2.7)
Pick: Spread - Sacks Supremacy: San Francisco/Seattle Buy @ 0.9

Acca

Ind @ 1.88
GB @ 1.72
Dal @ 1.56
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Report JimmyK September 12, 2010 3:39 PM BST
as always orioles, top work.
Report orioles September 13, 2010 12:15 AM BST
Well, there's wrong, and there's wrong! Plain

SF really have to sort out this redzone problem. If you hand a home team like Seattle that much momentum, you're always going to be in big trouble.

Now, I need to be alone with my shame Sad
Report orioles September 19, 2010 5:08 PM BST
Uncle O’s Game of the Week

Bears @ Cowboys


Ah, the rebound game. It brings a tear to me old glass eye just thinking about one of the great old principles of betting US sports. Dallas managed to blow it last week, performing like drunken monkeys in the red zone, with the zebras throwing flags like Zeeny on National Potato Day in Bulgaria.  However, the Bears didn’t impress in their win over Detroit, relying on a little luck, and I expect America’s team to be ‘bringing it’ at home.

The key matchup is going to be the Dallas defense against Cutler and his receivers. Martz is going to keep da Bears throwing the ball all day, but this isn’t the Lions’ zone defense with its soft underbelly - the Cowboys will go man-to-man, and Terence Newman and Mike Jenkins will make it a much more difficult day for Cutler downfield. This will impact Forte, who particularly enjoyed the Detroit scheme, and I expect Dallas to give him a much rougher ride, even with his rediscovered speed. 

Cutler was sacked four times and hit another seven by the Detroit defense, and if they can tiptoe through his protection, I shudder to think what DeMarcus Ware and his buddies are going to do. As I said, the Bears will air it out all day anyway, and if they get behind early, it could get crazy; so look for Cutler to throw picks.

On the other side of the ball, Miles Austin is money.  The problem is, he sometimes looks as though he’s the only fully functioning part of the Dallas offense. Colombo and Kosier should be back this week and that might be important against a Bears’ front who did okay last week (although that has to be qualified by the fact that Stafford got knocked out of the game) and they can pressure Romo, but the Bears’ secondary is weak and with Dallas clearly committed to the passing game, Austin, Bryant and Witten should get plenty of looks.  It would be nice to invest some real confidence in the Dallas running game, and they may do okay here with a bit of push back up front, but it may be that the committee is more of a diversionary tactic than a hammer blow.

I’ll give the points again this week and hope that the team turns up!

Pick: Dal -7*

Pick: 1st TD Austin @ 10, Barber @ 7.5, Forte @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Austin @ 2.25* (PP)

Pick: Buy Dallas Performance @ 67


Acca
Min
Atl
Car (3.12)

Value Acca
Cin
KC
Sea (14.61)
Report orioles September 26, 2010 4:02 PM BST
OK, here we go for 2010 ...

Uncle O’s Game of the Week

Buffalo @ New England


NEVER lay double digits in a GOW: it’s da law. Right?

Oddly, were the Pats rolling, I’d stay with the rule (especially after the Bills seemed to trouble them last year) but Tom doesn’t like to lose and the Pats will be straining every sinew to put things right at home – oh, and the Bills stink like Zeeny’s lentil and brussel sprout casserole on a sultry Sofia summer’s eve.

My concerns revolve around a decent Bills’ secondary and New England’s lack of a running game, but I’ll set those niggling doubts aside, bearing in mind Buffalo’s rotten front seven, non-existent pass rush, and Fitzpatrick appearing under centre. Chan Gailey’s indecision is my comfort blanket: he makes some bewildering choices (step forward C J Spiller, bench-warmer) and I take the Bills to get their doors blown off in Foxboro.

Welker got a smack upside the head last week and only made it onto the field 39 times, but he’s good to go and I like him to have a monster game in this match-up where Brady should have time to find him at will and considering the loss of Faulk will limit New England’s options somewhat. Moss will similarly benefit, don’t be surprised to see a couple of deep balls finding Randy using both hands. Oh yes. The Bills have Lee Evans ... and they refuse to throw to him. No targets last week at all. That said, with big Fitz taking the snaps now, Evans can be a legit threat and offers a little value in the ‘anytime’ market.

Two scores are available and, even with that whacking spread, I’ll lay the points. One caveat: the line has drifted all week and I wouldn’t want to lay anything bigger than 14.

Pick: NE -14

Pick: 1st time TD Moss @ 6, Welker @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Lee Evans @ 3.5

ATS Naps

Bal -10.5
Was -3.5
Phi -3

The rest ...

Titans +3
TB +3
Cin -3
Dal +2.5
KC +2.5
Min -10.5
Atl +4
Oak +4.5
Sea +6
Ind -5.5
Mia -2.5
GB -3

Acca
Phi
Cin
GB @ 4.49

Value Acca
Ten
TB
Dal @ 12.66

‘Puter Picks
KC +2.5
Det +10.5
Hou -2.5

‘Puter Totals

Cle/Bal Under
Atl/NO Under
Det/Min Under
Report orioles October 3, 2010 5:03 PM BST
Uncle O’s Game of the Week

SF @ Atl

A must-win game, a fired OC (after an offensive performance that allegedly saw the Chiefs’ sideline calling the plays as they came in) and the favourites for the NFC West seem to be teetering on the edge of calamity. I’ve seen trends favouring the 49ers (home favourites coming off road wins of 1-3 points are 21-48 ATS since 2000; teams that have beaten the world champions as dogs are 16-24 ATS the following week since 2000) as well as write-ups pointing out that this is a classic example of a strong play on the dog as they need it more and the Falcons will be let-down after such a big win. San Fran is a no-brainer ATS.

So I’m picking Atlanta.

I’m just not buying a team that is struggling on Offence against a team that can stop the run (two big plays notwithstanding) because as Frank Gore goes, so go the 49ers. Also, Jimmy Raye has been replaced by QB coach Mike Johnson and, while I’m not going to suggest that means he has a blinkered approach, his instincts, with the team in a hole, may be to shuffle the tactical deck in favour of the pass and that could prove fatal. If SF fall behind in the game too, that problem could be exacerbated. I just don’t like Alex Smith - he has thrown more picks than touchdowns this season and, although Atlanta are no great shakes against the pass, I will trust to Smith’s ineptitude and the 49ers inability to pull their Offence together.

Atlanta are coming off a fine (if fortuitous) win and I like the look of Turner matched up against a 49ers D that is low on confidence and being re-jigged after under-performing mightily in the first three weeks. The SF run D looks shaky (the Chiefs gashed them) and they seem to struggle on the road in particular. If Turner can find some outside speed, then he’ll really enjoy the day. Look too for Snelling catching the occasional pass out of the backfield. Ryan, White, Crabtree and Tony G (who inspired man love last week) are beginning to roll; I like the balance and options available to Atlanta on this side of the ball.

I’ll give the points.

Pick: Atl -6.5

Pick: 1st TD, Michael Turner @ 7, Tony Gonzalez @ 13, Frank Gore @ 7
Pick: Anytime TD, Roddy White @ 2, Vernon Davis @ 2.8


ATS Naps
Cin -3
Ind -7

The rest ...
NYJ -6
Det +14.5
Ten -6.5
Stl +2
NO -13
Bal +2.5
Oak +3
SD -9
Phi -5.5
Chi +3.5
Mia +1

Acca
Cin
Ten
Atl @ 3.16

Value Acca
Bal
Oak
Mia @ 12.65

‘Puter Picks
Chi
Pit
Atl
Ind

‘Puter Totals
Car/NO Under
NYJ/Buf Over
Ari/SD Under

So far ...

GOW: 0-1
TD Picks: +4

ATS naps: 1-2
ATS: 9-3

Acca: 0-1
Value Acca: 0-1

Puter Picks: 1-2
Puter Totals: 1-2
Report Nilsson Schmilsson October 4, 2010 12:21 AM BST
Cry
Report orioles October 4, 2010 12:23 AM BST
Oh man.

When it bites, it REALLY bites Plain

When Atlanta gave up a TD with a blocked punt, I knew it was going to be a bumpy night.
Report Nilsson Schmilsson October 4, 2010 12:28 AM BST
i feel the same, all on the da bears tonight @ www.kjbetting.co.uk

after the acca is let down by 1 again CryCry
Report orioles October 10, 2010 5:19 PM BST
Uncle O’s Game of the Week

Chi @ Car


The Panthers stink. Not as badly as my picks this season, but they stink nonetheless.

They do have Steve Smith out wide ... well, no they don’t, they’ll start two rookies at WR, and that just about extinguishes any hope they had. Why they should be giving points, even to an embarrassed Bears team that will start Collins instead of the bewildered Cutler (it says ‘concussion’ on the injury report, but we all know the truth) is beyond me.

Da Bears were horrible last week, turning in a performance that was like watching Zeeny trying to use a knife and fork – it was a cutlery disaster (oh, COME ON) on both sides of the meatball, but the Panthers are declawed these days with Peppers on the other side of the table now.

Although moving the ball on the ground has been a problem for Chicago, I take them to get something going today against a poor run D and with Collins likely to hand it off more than usual.  The alternate QB and shaky O line may make Olsen an interesting play in the TD market, as Cutler’s favourite check down will inevitably be Collins’.

Carolina has nothing but the run: Lafell and Gettis are like starting me at receiver and even if I had game, Clausen sure as hell wouldn’t get me the ball. The Bears will like the look of Clausen, who could find himself pressured into mistakes that might make the Chicago D the gamebreaker. That means Carolina will fall back on Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, both capable backs, but the Bears can defend the run and that’s unlikely to get the Panthers home.

I’ll take the points and hope Chicago has been shamed into a big game.

Pick: Chi +3

Pick: 1st TD/(Anytime TD): Forte @ 7 (2), Olsen @ 13 (3.5)
Pick: Buy Chicago Performance @ 30


ATS Naps
Stl +3
Ind -7
Den +7
Atl -3

The rest ...
Buf -1
NYG +3
Cin -6.5
GB-2.5
NO -7
Ten +7
Phi +3.5
SD -6
NYJ -4

Acca
Buf
Atl
NYJ @ 4.71

Value Acca
Chi
Phi
Den @ 24.44

‘Puter Picks
KC +7
StL +3
Ten +7
Phi +3.5

‘Puter Totals

StL/Det Under
NO/Ari Under

Results so far

GOW: 0-2
1st TD: +3
Anytime TD: +0.8

ATS naps: 1-4
ATS: 14-9

Acca: 0-2
Value Acca: 0-2

Puter Picks: 1-5
Puter Totals: 3-3
Report Nilsson Schmilsson October 10, 2010 10:43 PM BST
Happy
Report orioles October 10, 2010 10:54 PM BST
Would've taken 65pts out of the spread bet too, but Collins went 6/16/32 with 4 picks to take 40pts off!Shocked

Useless old git Laugh
Report Nilsson Schmilsson October 11, 2010 12:40 AM BST
my acca is being let down by 1 team again

enough to be SEETHING
Report orioles October 17, 2010 5:13 PM BST
Uncle O’s Game of the Week

Colts at Redskins


The Colts aren’t the team they were and the ‘Skins are putting together some nice wins, right? Well, I think both statements have been over-sold. Yes, the Colts were hobbled by the excellent Crennel last week, but the 3-4 defense can be porous if not highly disciplined; that does not bode well against the most accomplished and astute QB in the game. Indy will run anyone prepared to volunteer (the waterboy may suit up) but I like Wayne, Collie, Garcon and Clark to have a big game receiving tonight against the likes of Rogers and DeAngelo Hall. Washington brought all sorts of blitzes last week, after the Packers set off at a gallop, and it slowed them down; but Manning will murder you with reads at the line of scrimmage if you’re over-eager.

The Achilles’ heal of course, is the Colts’ complete inability to defend the run and Torain is an interesting prospect, especially with Bob Sanders and possibly Gary Brackett out. The Redskins’ O line though, has not been great at creating clear lanes for Torain, who is a downhill, power runner – he’s not going to make people miss. The Packers limited him, and I don’t fancy him to carry the game. The other interesting offensive player for Washington in betting terms is Anthony Armstrong, who looks like a decent deep threat when Santana Moss is gathering heavy coverage. If the Redskins get behind, McNabb might look for Armstrong for a big play downfield.

However, I’ll take 18 to see the Colts home as he picks on the Washington secondary and Iandianapolis does enough on the other side of the ball. I’ll give a field goal.

Pick: Indy -3

Pick: 1st TD Wayne @ 10, Clark @ 10, Torain @ 8.5
Pick: Anytime TD Armstrong @ 4.5, Clark @ 2.2


ATS Naps

Chi -6
Atl +2.5
Hou -4.5
Oak +7

The rest ...
Bal +2.5
NYG -10
Pit -14
GB -3
StL +8
NO -4
NYJ -3.5
Dal +1
Jax +3

Acca
Hou
Chi
Ind @ 3.4

Value Acca

Bal
Atl
Oak @ 17

‘Puter Picks
Atl +2.5
NYJ -3.5

‘Puter Totals
SD/StL Under
NO/TB Under
KC/Hou Under
NYJ/Den Over
Dal/Min Under

Results so far

GOW: 1-2
1st TD: +9
Anytime TD: +0.8
Spread +25

ATS naps: 3-6
ATS: 18-14

Acca: 0-3
Value Acca: 0-3

Puter Picks: 3-7
Puter Totals: 3-5
Report orioles October 24, 2010 6:00 PM BST
Uncle O’s Game of the Week
OUCH ... last week was brutal, like a date with Zeeny where the there's too much Rohypnol and sand in the lube. Anyway, we press on ...

Stl @ Tampa

I like Bradford, I like Jackson, I like the points.

The Bucs are giving it up against the run and have allowed 100yds in the last 3 and Jackson gives the Rams a depth that Tampa lack with a stuttering Cadillac.

Pick: StL +3

Pick: 1st TD/Anytime Jackson @ 7,2; Alexander @ 13, 3.25


ATS Naps
NE +2.5
Den -7.5
KC -9

The rest ...
Atl -3
Was +3
Ten -3
Pit -3
NO -12
SF -2.5
Bal -12
Sea -7
Min +3
NYG +3

Acca
Atl
Pit
Ten

Value Acca
NE
Was
StL

(Bit rushed, sorry - like any of you are reading this lol)
Report orioles October 24, 2010 6:07 PM BST
Puter Picks
Cle +13
Oak +7.5
NE +2.5
NYG +3

Totals

Cle/NO Under
Min/GB Under
Report curious-cat October 24, 2010 6:15 PM BST
Google has stolen my password - I need legal services. Happy
Report orioles October 24, 2010 6:20 PM BST
That's a brief fee of £25,000 and a daily fee of £5,000.

Let me know Grin
Report curious-cat October 24, 2010 8:38 PM BST
I was hoping for a gifted amateur Grin
Report Nilsson Schmilsson October 25, 2010 12:20 AM BST
that roddy white's some player Happy
Report orioles October 25, 2010 1:04 AM BST
I know - I have him on a couple of my teams!
Report FatoteSport October 28, 2010 6:36 PM BST
orioles, 7 games in, who are you liking the look of for the outright?
Report orioles October 31, 2010 5:02 PM GMT
Uncle O’s Game of the Week

Minnehaha @ NE


“WHAT? Have they slipped something into your cocoa, O?” I hear my reader shout (hello granny) but this is one of those games where so much is stacked against the visitors, with all the on and off-field drama bearing down on the Vikes, that I believe they can jump up and bite New England. And this is why:

Favre suits up and preys upon the rotten Pats secondary. There’s no pass-rush to talk of and he’ll hobble around hurling it all over the place – this’ll spell trouble for the Pats.

Tarvaris goes as Brett waves goodbye ... and the same thing happens. If Favre isn’t under centre, Big Bill has to figure they’re just going to hand it off to Peterson all day (hehe) and so NE will pack the box and shore up their run defense, exposing that secondary even more. Jackson isn’t the greatest QB in the NFL, but he ain’t the worst (see Hall, Max). This all points to Harvin and Moss making plays.

All this is in the context of Petersen; he’s money (or bartering goods as Zeeny would understand it) and although he will go up against an improving run D, his catches out of the backfield and raw talent add a dimension that the Pats lack.

I’m essentially picking balance against a one-dimensional O, because Brady is going to throw the pill from the start to his next hair styling. There’s no run, there’s no option. That presents a problem because Minnesota can bring it to the opposition QB and Brady has been sacked a lot recently. My man love for Allen has abated a little, but along with Edwards they can pressure a NE O line that is under-performing. Brady will rely on short passes to move the ball with the absence of home-run plays in the book these days and that can break down as dink and dunk can leave you with some third and long situations against Vikes’ CBs that are getting healthy and the good ol# ‘bend but don’t break’ philosophy. I’ll be looking for guys like Hernandez and Welker to have big games underneath in this gameplan. I see points people.

So there we are. The Vikes need it ... and so do I!

I’ll take the points.

Pick: Min +5.5
Pick: Over 43.5

Pick: 1st TD/Anytime TD: Harvin (11, 2.62) Petersen (6.5, 1.91) Hernandez (13, 2.62) Welker (11, 2.25)
Anytime TD only – Moss @ 2.88
Spread: Sell TD Yardage Supremacy: New England/Minnesota @ 13


ATS Naps
Buf +7
GB +6.5
SD -4
Was +2.5
Den +2.5

The rest ...
StL -2.5
Dal -6.5
Cin -1
Sea +2
TB +3
NO -1
Hou +5.5

Acca
StL
SD
Cin    @ 5.22

Value Acca
Den   
Was   
Sea    @ 11.13

‘Puter Picks
Prog1
KC -7
Ten +4.5

‘Puter Totals
Pit/NO Under

Results so far(Hall of Shame)

GOW 2-1-1
ATS Naps 5-11
ATS 27-24
Acca 1-2
Value Acca 0-3
Puter Picks 8-8
Puter Totals 6-9
Report orioles October 31, 2010 5:17 PM GMT
Guess who didn't change his watch Plain
Report curious-cat October 31, 2010 8:13 PM GMT
Laugh
Report curious-cat October 31, 2010 8:15 PM GMT
Are you coming down to London to dribble over one of the cheerleaders Uncle O ?
Report orioles October 31, 2010 8:16 PM GMT
At my age?

My pig's lung and baboon heart would never stand it Cry
Report curious-cat October 31, 2010 8:38 PM GMT
I'm on the vikings as well ......... but I don't do the fancy stuff.

I generally start off laying the favs. Grin
Report curious-cat October 31, 2010 8:39 PM GMT
most games seem to be decided by the defence / offence lineups.

...... though in the Wembley game there wasn't a lot of activity from either team.
Report curious-cat October 31, 2010 8:49 PM GMT
all the on and off-field drama bearing down on the Vikes

Is that the stuff about Favre and the coach ?
Report curious-cat October 31, 2010 8:51 PM GMT
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=startribune&page=nfl/gridi...
Report curious-cat October 31, 2010 8:52 PM GMT
/tsnform.aspx?c=startribune&page=nfl/gridiron/index.aspx?ID=3314
Report curious-cat October 31, 2010 8:52 PM GMT
page=nfl/gridiron/index.aspx?ID=3314
Report orioles October 31, 2010 8:58 PM GMT
If you can pay attention to key position injuries according to the offensive/defensive schemes that are favoured by the respective teams, you can get a bit of a clue as to how things might go. Mind you, that sounds good, but I'm having a dreadful season lol.

Look for Brady picking on rookie corner Chris Cook tonight, for example.
Report curious-cat October 31, 2010 9:04 PM GMT
ok will do ......

coming up to 2 years of watching AF

I have learnt the hard way about sides being able to score 2 points by opting to run after a TD instead of a kick ....

also was amazed when the side who were losing made a TD by running it rugby union style ( several passes backwards ) like a threequarter movement.

Why don't they do this more often ? ? ?
Report curious-cat October 31, 2010 9:06 PM GMT
Harvin seems to have recovered Happy
Report curious-cat October 31, 2010 9:11 PM GMT
..... and Favre doesn't seem to be getting a lot of protection from his defence.

which makes me a little uneasy.
Report orioles November 7, 2010 4:57 PM GMT
Uncle O’s Game of the Week

Colts @ Eagles 5* ‘Please God, rescue my season lock of the year’


Number 18 has been the only reliable thing in my season so far and I really like him going up against the RSPCA’s Man of the Year today. He’s dealing with no running game, and a variety of walking wounded downfield, protecting him and on his D, but as we saw last week, it just doesn’t worry the guy at all.

Phillie will throw everything at him in an attempt to stem the flow of passes as Manning concentrates on simple routes to move the ball, occasionally changing it up with a run or two for Brown and James (there’s two names to strike fear into the hearts of linebackers up and down the league!) The problem with blitzing Manning is that he murders teams that come after him too much with his intelligence and quick release.

There’s a particularly interesting matchup today; Dimitri Patterson should be making his first ever start with Hobbs out ... and he’ll match up on Reggie Wayne. A terrifying prospect and one that Peyton is bound to enjoy. It may take time to develop, but the over-eager corner is going to be out-thought at some stage by the Manning/Wayne axis. On the other side, Garcon will match up on Samuel who is very aggressive and while that makes him the Eagles’ top corner, it can be a problem if he gambles against the best QB in the game. Tamme looked promising too and Manning likes going to the TE in the red zone, so I’ll take him to score; the 21 on offer for 1st TD looks too big.

The Phillies have gone with Vick. Well, ok, it may just be that Andy Reid knows more about the game than me, but ditching a hot hand in favour of a guy who tends to break plays and rely on his movement to manufacture something positive, seems odd to me, particularly against a D that has speed and a different look to the Jags and the Lions. All that said, Indy are badly banged up on this side of the ball and Vick might like some of the deeper match ups on guys like Aaron Francisco and Justin Tryon. Look for DeSean Jackson on a big play deep.

I’m going to put it all on my man Manning though, and take the points with a confidence born of a genius football ‘capper like me that has lost nearly every bet this season.

Pick: Colts +3
Pick: Over 46.5

Pick: 1st TD Tamme @ 21(SJ)
Pick: Anytime TD, Tamme @ 2.8, Wayne @ 2, DeSean Jackson @ 2.1, McCoy @ 1.91


ATS Naps
Mia +5
Ari +7.5
SD -3
Cle +4


The rest ...
Buf +3
TB +10
NO -6
NYJ -5.5
Sea +7.5
Oak +1
Dal +7
Pit -4.5

Acca
SD
NYJ
Pit  @ 3.59

Value Acca
Buf
Cle
Ind @ 16.46

‘Puter Picks
Ari +7.5
Sea +7.5

‘Puter Totals

None
Report curious-cat November 7, 2010 6:03 PM GMT
gl Happy
Report orioles November 14, 2010 4:47 PM GMT
Uncle O’s Game of the Week

St Louis @ San Francisco


I like St Louis in this game.

Despite lacking a receiver corps with any stand-out targets, Bradford has kept this team rolling with a strong arm and intelligent protection of possession. Of course, having a running back of the calibre of Steven Jackson helps – and if he gets it going tonight, the Rams should dominate completely – but I like the way St Louis are coming together on both sides of the ball.

Jackson gets a lot of touches, as you might expect with Bradford under centre, and needs to come off the bye week with a bit of vigour back in those old legs. However, the 49ers are strong against the run, and could limit the big, battering workhorse. This may put Bradford in long yardage situations, which would make me nervous if it kept occurring, so keep an eye on how that develops. Bradford needs to be able to get it to guys like Laurent and Gibson, who will be matching up on SF’s disappointing secondary containing a dinged up Clements, Shawntae Spencer and particularly rookie safety Taylor Mays and if he does, the Rams can get it done.

San Francisco rely on their premium runner too, but the St Louis run D is very strong, with Fred Robbins, Gary Gibson and James Laurinaitis really stuffing the run. Troy Smith will see a lot of different looks from the Rams’ D and will be under a good deal more pressure this week as St Louis can also defend downfield – this may offer some value with Vernon Davis operating as a safety valve for Smith underneath and getting looks in the redzone.

I’ll take the points.

Pick: St Louis +6
Pick: 1st TD Steven Jackson
Pick: Anytime TD Vernon Davis


ATS Naps
Ten SU
Hou +1.5

The rest ...
(Atl -1)
TB -7
Buf -2
Cin +7
Min -1
Jets -3
Den +1
Dal +13.5
Sea +3.5
Pit -4.5
Phi -3

Acca
TB
Pit
Phi @ 2.07

Value Acca
Ten
Hou
Den @ 7

‘Puter Picks
Det +3
StL +6
KC -1

‘Puter Totals
Det/Buf Over

Results so far

GOW 3-2-1
ATS Naps 11-16
ATS 35-30-1
Acca 2-3
Value Acca 0-5
Puter Picks 9-11
Puter Totals 7-9
Report curious-cat November 14, 2010 10:23 PM GMT
do you get involved ir orioles ?

Dallas 16-3 up Grin
Report orioles November 14, 2010 10:27 PM GMT
Small interest, CC, I'm letting it run. Really liked Denver too tonight but didn't bother Plain

Still so sick about the Vikes' pathetic show, I'm sulking lol

The Rams can save my mood Happy
Report curious-cat November 14, 2010 10:28 PM GMT
...... and do you get involved in all of your tips ?

for the first time I'm following one nore match other than the televised match.

....... was a bit of struggle for the first game and lost on the 'other' match.

but I picked on the Dallas match and have already traded out.

I'm knackered due to following the Singapore Open (golf) so I might trade out in the televised match soon.
Report orioles November 14, 2010 10:33 PM GMT
Generally, yes I do. I'm not a big punter (50 - 150 range) and I've found over the years that betting the whole card works best for me. Very disappointed with tonight's naps, a 50yd bomb with 4 seconds left and a loss to a team down to its third string QB, but that sort of makes my point. (If that makes any sense!)
Report curious-cat November 14, 2010 10:33 PM GMT
I think my interest in Am foot is almost solely due to ir

possibly the best sport to trade in ( or perhaps it's the simplest one and suitable for me Grin )


---

as I was coming from rugby union ( a sport I rarely had a bet on -- perhaps the varsity match --- as I loved it too much ) I found the delays ( time outs, injuries and umpiring get togethers ) spoiled the flow.

I was ok once I stopped comparing it to rugby union.
Report curious-cat November 14, 2010 10:37 PM GMT
Yeah !

It's amazing what happens in any sport ,,, NFL has it's fair share of incidents.

I got really involved last week when a player was injured ( fair tackle ) but accidentally collided with the helmet of an innocent runner.

Of course the zebras got it wrong.
Report curious-cat November 14, 2010 10:42 PM GMT
When I started ( play offs 2008) there was a run of the outsider winning so I did quite well ...... I've curbed my enthusiasm for going in big on the trades after some losses.

like most events on here I do better by not being too greedy and not thinking I'm some kind of a professional !
Report orioles November 14, 2010 10:44 PM GMT
If you understand the US mindset - their sport is designed around thrilling finishes that also capture TV markets - then you've discovered why US sports are so lucrative for IR betting.

Sure things get busted all the time in baseball and football (I couldn't offer an opinion on hockey and basketball) It's hellishly difficult to run out the game in those games (I realise the kneel-down gives a lie to that, but it's not the game killer it looks) and easy to score a lot of points quickly.

The delays are frustrating in football, but if you've got a few bets running, they can help ... and it allows me to shout for more tea and cake Silly
Report curious-cat November 14, 2010 10:51 PM GMT
I wish I had an old retainer !
Report orioles November 14, 2010 10:53 PM GMT
I didn't say any tea and cake necessarily arrived! Happy
Report curious-cat November 15, 2010 12:20 AM GMT
http://www.veetle.com/index.php/channel/view#4ce05abd698ed

gives a feed of the Dallas game.
Report orioles November 21, 2010 6:04 PM GMT
Uncle O’s Game of the Week

Houston Texans @ New York Jets


I have the Jets as one of my teams to go all the way (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Oakland, as you ask) and I’ll take them against Houston today. The Texan deep threats are potent and Schaub is capable, and paired with Foster they present the kind of balanced offense that I like: the problem is, it’s the Jets D, Houston stink on the other side of the ball, and there are real injury concerns on the Oilers’ sideline.

Everyone knows you attack Houston vertically, and every week they get torched. They have no pass rush to speak of, their safeties, Bernard Pollard and Eugene Wilson, are poor, and CBs Glover Quin and Kareem Jackson are out of their rookie depth. That makes them vulnerable deep and underneath, so I expect Edwards, Holmes and Keller to find room and Sanchez could put up big numbers through the air. The problem for Houston is exacerbated by the rejuvenated LT and Greene one-two punch on the ground. The Texans are giving up the fifth most ypg rushing over the last four as their line begins to creak too.

Houston are far from toothless - Andre Johnson is superb and can do real damage (just ask the Jags: 9/146/1 last week) but he is banged up and of course, he will find Darrelle Revis everywhere he goes today. With the dominant corner getting his game back as he regains his fitness, that’s going to be a problem for Schaub/Johnson. Another problem is Schaub’s knee, which saw him in hospital this week and I still see him listed as questionable on the injury report. His ribs are damaged too and the Jets will surely come after him and Orlovsky/Leinart ain’t getting it done.

I’ll give the points and take some interest in a Houston team with a toothless pass rush and the Jets hunting an immobile Schaub.

Pick: NYJ -6.5 (3pts)
Pick: 1st TD Santonio Holmes 12/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Dustin Keller 6/5 (1pt)
Pick: Sacks Supremacy Jets/Texans Buy at 0.8 (0.5pt/tick)


ATS Naps
Cle +2.5
Ten -7
GB -3
Phi -3

The rest ...
Ari +8
Cin -4.5
Dal -5.5
Oak +7.5
Bal -13
Atl -3
NO -10.5
SF -3
Colts +4
Den +9.5

Acca
Dal
SF
Phi

Value Acca
Ari
Cle
Ind

‘Puter Picks

Det +
Den +
Oak +

‘Puter Totals
None
Report curious-cat November 21, 2010 9:04 PM GMT
Shocked
Report orioles November 21, 2010 9:44 PM GMT
One of those days, CC. Picks being made with children running about, complete bedlam, house guests for the weekend, me creeping off to have a look at the games.

I'll charge for Sunday lunch next time [;)]
Report curious-cat November 21, 2010 9:50 PM GMT
children running about, complete bedlam

I thought for a moment you were describing the Jets !
Report orioles November 21, 2010 9:55 PM GMT
I have them for the Super Bowl, but if they lose concentration like that, they have no chance.
Report curious-cat November 21, 2010 10:04 PM GMT
It happens often enough ....... an interception, a penalty decision or some other vagary of fate can give the losing team some momentum.

I came a cropper on the 7.5 h'c but had hedged with a lay at 1.06 on the match odds which I was able to back back when Houston were in the lead.

ended up with a loss of £3 overall so it felt like getting out of jail. Grin


not that I know what that feel likes your honour Devil
Report curious-cat November 21, 2010 10:04 PM GMT
feels like
Report orioles November 21, 2010 10:16 PM GMT
Unlike the people I defended Laugh
Report orioles November 28, 2010 4:29 PM GMT
Uncle O’s Game of the Week

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons


The coach killers take on the 19-1 home trigger man. This should be a great game; two teams who are playing well and look destined to be significant players down the stretch.

I know I harp on about this (and it’s hardly a startling insight!) but I like to see strength on both sides of the ball – it doesn’t have to be overwhelming, but there must be balance. In this respect, the Packers have the clear edge in this matchup.

When Finley went down, I feared for the Pack. He was the x-fator on the offense that somehow seemed to make it tick, even so early in his career, but Rodgers has got Green Bay rolling as Greg Jennings, , James Jones and latterly Donald Driver have proved their worth and the offense has been devastating recently. Getting Rodgers as a dog, even in the Georgia Dome, is an attractive proposition. The Falcons’ secondary is beatable and if they’re hoping to stop Green Bay by getting to Rodgers, you should bear in mind that the Pack’s O line has only given up 6 sacks in the last three and conversely, the Atlanta pass rush has got home only three times in their last three. Look for Rodgers to attack Grimes in the Atlanta secondary and Jennings to score as he has recovered from a slow start to be the got to receiver in this offense.

Ryan is 19-1 at home, it must be the most quoted QB stat of the season, but he’s matching up on a Green Bay defense that will test his nerve and decision-making under pressure. Over that recent three game spell, the Packer D has yielded 10 points to the opposition. Total. That’s against the Jets, Dallas and Minnesota – that’s some line of form. Their corners are dominant and in Clay Matthews they have the league leader in sacks. Atlanta have protected Ryan nicely and any team that boasts Roddy White out wide and Tony Gonzalez over the middle, along with a more capable supporting cast downfield has a puncher’s chance, but they really need to establish the run and unfortunately that seems unlikely as the Atlanta run game has been sketchy and Green Bay are tough on the ground. The Falcons are 1-3 ATS when they put up fewer than 100 yards on the ground and I don’t see Turner dominating B.J. Raji , Frank Zombo and Clay Matthews.

The Pack are more solid all round and they should have enough to break the Ryan home magic.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +2 (4pts)

Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings 8/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD James Jones 2/1 (0.5pt)

ATS Naps

Pit -6
Phi -3
SD +2.5

The rest ...
(NYJ -10)
(NE -6.5)
(NO -3.5)
Cle -9
NYG -7
Min -1.5
Ten +6
Sea +3
Oak -2.5
Den -3.5
TB +7.5
SF -1

Acca
Den
Hou
Oak

Value Acca
Min
Sea
SD

‘Puter Picks

Ten +
StL +
Chi +

‘Puter Totals
Jac/NYG Over
GB/Atl Under
Ten/Hou Over
SD/Ind Under
Report curious-cat December 5, 2010 4:32 PM GMT
.
Report curious-cat December 5, 2010 4:36 PM GMT
New York Jets safety Jim Leonhard will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing surgery for a broken right leg.
Report orioles December 5, 2010 5:33 PM GMT
Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Simple - if Collins goes for the Titans, then lay the points, if he doesn’t and Rusty Smith is under centre, take the Jags and points. I’m getting nothing on the late injury reports, so I’ll assume Collins goes.

Collins can at least get it done and involve Johnson in the game (Rusty Smith managed to remove his own ace from the game) and the threat of guys like Moss and Washington downfield, the Titans will change it up as required, particularly as the Jags’ pass rush/defense is very poor. They’ve defended the run well recently, but Tennessee must get the run going first, and Johnson will see the ball a lot early.

The QB issue is the biggest concern because the Titans are solid on D and they should be able to control this side of the ball and pressure Garrard whom they knocked out last time. All that said, Maurice Jones-Drew has been strong recently and is worth a touch for 1st TD.

Give the points.

Pick: Tennessee -3 (3*)

Pick: 1st TD Maurice Jones-Drew 5/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Randy Moss  13/8 (1pt)

ATS Naps

Chi -5
StL -3.5
NE -3.5

The rest ...
(Phi -8)
Buf +5
Cle +5.5
NO -6.5
GB -8.5
Den +9
NYG -7
SD -13
Car +4.5
Dal +5.5
Atl -3
Pit +3

Acca
Ten
Atl
NE

Value Acca

Cle
Car
Pit

‘Puter Picks
Oak +
Buf +
Cle +

‘Puter Totals
None
Report curious-cat December 5, 2010 5:52 PM GMT
I've laid the Titans @ 1.6 with a view to trading.

The Jaguars seem to have posted some decent results since losing 3-30 at home to the Titans.
Report curious-cat December 5, 2010 5:59 PM GMT
RP tips for TV matches are exactly the same as yours orioles.

You have to improve the security inside your head.
Report orioles December 5, 2010 6:00 PM GMT
Opposing my picks can only make you rich Happy
Report orioles December 12, 2010 4:22 PM GMT
Uncle O’s Game of the Week

Bucs @ Redskins


I like the Bucs here. My Redskins have the look of a team that have given up, and while the Buccaneers managed to blow a 10 point lead last week, they look the team most likely.

The Redskins malaise is particularly evident on defense and LeGarrette Blount should have a big game.  He is a massive unit and can wear down a Washington defense that sits last in yards per carry given up. Interestingly, Raheem Morris has expressed increasing frustration at the big boy's inability to convert short yardage and at the goal-line, and the 3/1 on offer at Paddy Power for Earnest Graham to score may offer some sneaky value as he may get those carries in the redzone. The Washington secondary has struggled all season and is banged up and Josh Freeman, even with limited options downfield, is developing into an efficient and talented QB.

Losing Aqib Talib is a blow for the Bucs, so I expect them to come after McNabb to limit the aerial attack and they should get to him. The 'skins O line is playing poorly, allowing 13 sacks in the last four weeks and Tampa have 12 sacks over the same period. That is a worrying combination of stats for McNabb. Washington is also turning over the ball much too much. Their running game is a shambles, so I don't expect the Bucs to be too troubled on the ground, which is a bust for Washington as that probably represents their best chance.

I'll give the point.

Pick: Tampa Bay -1 (3*)

Pick: 1st TD Mike Williams 8/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Earnest Graham 3/1 (1pt)
Pick: Buy Tampa Bay Sacks @ 2.4 (1pt/tick)


ATS Naps
GB -6.5
Den -4

The rest ...
(Ind -3.5)
Cin +8.5
Atl -7.5
Cle +1
Oak +4
StL +9.5
Sea +5.5
Mia +5
SD -9
NE -2.5
Dal +4
Hou +3

Acca
Atl
GB
NO
SD

Value Acca
Cle
Oak
Hou

‘Puter Picks
Ten+)
KC+
Oak+
Sea+
Cle+
Atl-
Chi+
StL+

‘Puter Totals
Cle/Buf Over
StL/NO Under
Report curious-cat December 13, 2010 1:31 AM GMT
I'll give the point.

Pick: Tampa Bay -1 (3*)


ul - very
Report orioles December 14, 2010 11:40 AM GMT
The highlight of this week was having a close look last night at the Bal/Hou game on my blog ... and picking Bal after picking the Oilers on this thread Shocked

Not my finest hour.
Report orioles December 19, 2010 6:08 PM GMT
ATS Naps
Ari +2.5
Cle +1
NO +2

The rest ...

(SD -9.5)
Dal -9.5
Buf +6
Det +5
Ten -1
Jax +4.5
StL -3
NYG +3
Report orioles December 19, 2010 7:50 PM GMT
Atl -6
Oak -8
Jets +4
GB +14
Chi -8
Report curious-cat December 19, 2010 9:53 PM GMT
First game I chose to follow I backed NYG -2.5 at evens.
Report curious-cat December 19, 2010 9:54 PM GMT
Luckily I laid off as I was doing other things.
Report orioles December 19, 2010 9:55 PM GMT
There have been some crazy games today, but getting the right side of the Philly result was ridiculous Sad
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