North American
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12 Aug 10
17:22
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Date Joined:
16 Nov 08
Always wanted to do one of these tipping threads, not really for anyone else's benefit, more for my own to see if I can keep my discipline, attain a winning percentage and make a profit on my straight bets (not trading) over the course of a season.
My rules: All bets will be to a £100 level stake and must be either handicaps or totals. No moneylines. No parlays.
The goal: To be in profit at the end of the season and to have a win rate of at least 55%
If anyone one else want to post tips and keep track of their record alongside me please feel free.
Pre-season Week 1
Pick 1: Baltimore -3.5 (-110) at home against Carolina
My rules: All bets will be to a £100 level stake and must be either handicaps or totals. No moneylines. No parlays.
The goal: To be in profit at the end of the season and to have a win rate of at least 55%
If anyone one else want to post tips and keep track of their record alongside me please feel free.
Pre-season Week 1
Pick 1: Baltimore -3.5 (-110) at home against Carolina
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Replies: 33
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Wd last nite though preseason not for me, but will post reg season bets.
Also mate i didnt recive that email with your keepers can you post it on here, or send me a new email cheers. |
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best of luck, athough i think your rules are a bit daft
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thanks sky. i think i picked hines ward and jay cutler for my keepers which shows how bad my team is
 which rules do you think are daft nilsson? i was contemplating using kelly over level stakes. it's a season long experiment so i welcome all comments and feedback. YTD: 1-0, 100%, +£100 (all bets are to win £100, so risking £110 with normal juice) Pre-Season Week 1 Pick 2: Washington -4 (-110) at home against Buffalo |
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not a fan of level stakes, too restrictive. i wouldn't ditch moneyline either as i think they can be value on low spread games
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Your team is infinitely better than mine
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YTD: 2-0, 100%, +£200
Pre-Season Week 1 Pick 3: Miami -3.5 (+100) at home against Tampa |
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YTD: 2-1, 66%, +£100
Pre-Season Week 1 Pick 4: San Francisco -3 (-117) at Indianapolis Pick 5: Denver +3.5 (-109) at Cincinnati |
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The exhibition games are pointless betting on pretty much, even if you have a large bank I'd hold off until the proper stuff starts.
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Betting on nfl preseason games. Degeneracy at its finest.
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plenty of good betting opportunities pre-season. if you do your homework on the depth charts, the coaches mentality in these games and also trawl the local papers for info on how long the starters are going to play then you can take advantage of softer lines than the regular season.
to completely write it off as a betting medium is missing out imo. |
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YTD: 3-2, 60%, +£91
Pre-Season Week 1 Pick 6: NY Jets -2.5 (-110) against NY Giants |
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Im sure there is mate. But im usually a mental wreck by week 12 of the regular season. Another 4 weeks of betting would tip me over the edge.
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I hope your not betting odds on - because over the course of the year a 55% win streak is going to result in a loss not a profit, for example you are currently +91 and if you lose another £100 then you will be 3-3 (50%) but down £9?!?!?!
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oh dear joey
thats why he says 55% not 50% |
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i'm sure it still wouldn't equate to a profit over the season, he sould be aiming for 66%, isn't that the strike rate pro gamblers have?
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52.38% would be break even joey if all bets were at -110. I don't know about 66%, I think 57-59% is what the pros manage.
after some thought I'm ditching the level stakes and will adjust my bets according to my perceived edge (which may or may not be accurate, but thats's what this experiment is for, to test my handicapping skills or lack of!) so my stake range will be to win between 1 and 3 units. YTD: 3-3, 50%, -0.19u Pre-Season Week 2 Pick 7: Philadelphia +3 (-115) at Cincinnati to win 1 unit |
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YTD: 3-4, 43%, -1.34u
Pre-Season Week 2 Pick 8: Pittsburgh -4 (-105) at NY Giants to win win 3 units |
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YTD: 4-4, 50%, +1.66u
Pre-Season Week 2 Pick 9: Under 37 points (-104) in the Arizona @ Tennessee game to win 1 unit |
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YTD: 5-4, 55%, +2.66u
Pre-Season Week 3 Pick 10 New England -7 (-110) against St. Louis to win 2 units Pick 11 Green Bay -3.5 (-110) against Indianapolis to win 1 unit |
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How much are you putting on each bet?
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you're fishing right?
Pick 10 New England -7 (-110) against St. Louis to win 2 units to win 2 units at -110 i'm risking 2.2 units. and if you must know 1 unit for me = £100 |
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Fishing? It was a genuine question because I virtually skimmed over your first post and have barely followed it since.
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YTD: 6-5, 54%, +1.46u
Pre-Season Week 3 Pick 12: NY Jets -4.5 (-110) against Washington to win 2 units Pick 13: New Orleans -3 (-116) against San Diego to win 3 units |
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YTD 7-6, 54%, +2.46u
Pre-Season Week 3 Pick 14: NY Giants +4(-105)at Baltimore to win 1 unit Pick 15: San Francisco +1 (-106) at Oakland to win 1 unit |
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YTD: 8-7, 53%, +2.41u
Pre-Season Week 3 Pick 16: Pittsburgh -2 (-110) at Denver to win 2 units |
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YTD: 8-8, 50%, +0.41u
Pre-Season Week 4 Pick 17: Tennessee -7.5 (-105) against New Orleans to win 1 unit Pick 18: Denver +4 (-110) at Minnesota to win 1 unit Pick 19: Miami -1.5 (-110) at Dallas to win 1 unit Pick 20: Pittsburgh -6.5 (-103) against Carolina to win 1 unit |
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how much?
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YTD: 9-11, 45%, -1.84u
Week 1 picks 21-28 New Orleans -4.5 (-108) to win 2 units Chicago -6.5 (-107) to win 1 unit New England -4 (-108) to win 1 unit Cleveland +3 (-107) to win 1 unit Indianapolis -2 (-110) to win 2 units Green Bay -3 (-102) to win 2 units San Francisco -3 (+104) to win 2 units Baltimore +2.5 (-110) to win 2 units |
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Week 1: 4-3-1, +1.93u
YTD: 13-14-1, 48%, +0.09u Week 2 Picks 29-34 Baltimore -2.5 (-111) to win 2 units Tennessee -5 (-104) to win 2 units Chicago +7.5 (-104) to win 1 unit Washington +3 (-110) to win 1 unit Jacksonville +7 (-104) to win 1 unit Indianapolis -5 (+101) to win 2 units |
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also:
Philadelphia -6.5 to win 1 unit |
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Week 2: 2-4-1, -3.37u
YTD: 15-18-2, 45%, -3.28u Week 3 Picks 35-43 (all to win 1 unit) NY Giants -3 (+103) Cncinnati -3 (-109) New Orleans -4 (+102) Houston -2.5 (-106) Washington -3.5 (-103) Denver +6.5 (-110) Oakland +4.5 (-102) Green Bay -3 (+104) 49ers@Chiefs Over 36.5 (-110) |
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Week 3: 3-6, -3.19u
YTD: 18-24-2, 43%, -6.47u had a horrible 2 weeks but hopefully can turn it around this week. Week 4 Picks 44-50 Baltimore@Pittsburgh Over 34 (-107) to win 1 unit NY Jets -5 (-110) to win 3 units Chicago +4 (-110) to win 2 units Green Bay -14 (-110) to win 2 units New England -1 (-110) to win 1 unit Washington@Philly Over 42.5 (-110) to win 1 unit Houston@Oakland Under 43.5 (-110) to win 1 unit |
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also:
Cincinnati -2.5 (-113) to win 3 units |