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12 Aug 10
17:22
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Date Joined:
16 Nov 08
Always wanted to do one of these tipping threads, not really for anyone else's benefit, more for my own to see if I can keep my discipline, attain a winning percentage and make a profit on my straight bets (not trading) over the course of a season.
My rules: All bets will be to a £100 level stake and must be either handicaps or totals. No moneylines. No parlays.
The goal: To be in profit at the end of the season and to have a win rate of at least 55%
If anyone one else want to post tips and keep track of their record alongside me please feel free.
Pre-season Week 1
Pick 1: Baltimore -3.5 (-110) at home against Carolina
My rules: All bets will be to a £100 level stake and must be either handicaps or totals. No moneylines. No parlays.
The goal: To be in profit at the end of the season and to have a win rate of at least 55%
If anyone one else want to post tips and keep track of their record alongside me please feel free.
Pre-season Week 1
Pick 1: Baltimore -3.5 (-110) at home against Carolina
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Wd last nite though preseason not for me, but will post reg season bets.
Also mate i didnt recive that email with your keepers can you post it on here, or send me a new email cheers.
Also mate i didnt recive that email with your keepers can you post it on here, or send me a new email cheers.
best of luck, athough i think your rules are a bit daft
thanks sky. i think i picked hines ward and jay cutler for my keepers which shows how bad my team is 
which rules do you think are daft nilsson? i was contemplating using kelly over level stakes. it's a season long experiment so i welcome all comments and feedback.
YTD: 1-0, 100%, +£100 (all bets are to win £100, so risking £110 with normal juice)
Pre-Season Week 1
Pick 2: Washington -4 (-110) at home against Buffalo
which rules do you think are daft nilsson? i was contemplating using kelly over level stakes. it's a season long experiment so i welcome all comments and feedback.
YTD: 1-0, 100%, +£100 (all bets are to win £100, so risking £110 with normal juice)
Pre-Season Week 1
Pick 2: Washington -4 (-110) at home against Buffalo
not a fan of level stakes, too restrictive. i wouldn't ditch moneyline either as i think they can be value on low spread games 
YTD: 2-0, 100%, +£200
Pre-Season Week 1
Pick 3: Miami -3.5 (+100) at home against Tampa
Pre-Season Week 1
Pick 3: Miami -3.5 (+100) at home against Tampa
YTD: 2-1, 66%, +£100
Pre-Season Week 1
Pick 4: San Francisco -3 (-117) at Indianapolis
Pick 5: Denver +3.5 (-109) at Cincinnati
Pre-Season Week 1
Pick 4: San Francisco -3 (-117) at Indianapolis
Pick 5: Denver +3.5 (-109) at Cincinnati
The exhibition games are pointless betting on pretty much, even if you have a large bank I'd hold off until the proper stuff starts.
Betting on nfl preseason games. Degeneracy at its finest.
plenty of good betting opportunities pre-season. if you do your homework on the depth charts, the coaches mentality in these games and also trawl the local papers for info on how long the starters are going to play then you can take advantage of softer lines than the regular season.
to completely write it off as a betting medium is missing out imo.
to completely write it off as a betting medium is missing out imo.
YTD: 3-2, 60%, +£91
Pre-Season Week 1
Pick 6: NY Jets -2.5 (-110) against NY Giants
Pre-Season Week 1
Pick 6: NY Jets -2.5 (-110) against NY Giants
Im sure there is mate. But im usually a mental wreck by week 12 of the regular season. Another 4 weeks of betting would tip me over the edge.
I hope your not betting odds on - because over the course of the year a 55% win streak is going to result in a loss not a profit, for example you are currently +91 and if you lose another £100 then you will be 3-3 (50%) but down £9?!?!?!
i'm sure it still wouldn't equate to a profit over the season, he sould be aiming for 66%, isn't that the strike rate pro gamblers have?
52.38% would be break even joey if all bets were at -110. I don't know about 66%, I think 57-59% is what the pros manage.
after some thought I'm ditching the level stakes and will adjust my bets according to my perceived edge (which may or may not be accurate, but thats's what this experiment is for, to test my handicapping skills or lack of!) so my stake range will be to win between 1 and 3 units.
YTD: 3-3, 50%, -0.19u
Pre-Season Week 2
Pick 7: Philadelphia +3 (-115) at Cincinnati to win 1 unit
after some thought I'm ditching the level stakes and will adjust my bets according to my perceived edge (which may or may not be accurate, but thats's what this experiment is for, to test my handicapping skills or lack of!) so my stake range will be to win between 1 and 3 units.
YTD: 3-3, 50%, -0.19u
Pre-Season Week 2
Pick 7: Philadelphia +3 (-115) at Cincinnati to win 1 unit
YTD: 3-4, 43%, -1.34u
Pre-Season Week 2
Pick 8: Pittsburgh -4 (-105) at NY Giants to win win 3 units
Pre-Season Week 2
Pick 8: Pittsburgh -4 (-105) at NY Giants to win win 3 units
YTD: 4-4, 50%, +1.66u
Pre-Season Week 2
Pick 9: Under 37 points (-104) in the Arizona @ Tennessee game to win 1 unit
Pre-Season Week 2
Pick 9: Under 37 points (-104) in the Arizona @ Tennessee game to win 1 unit
YTD: 5-4, 55%, +2.66u
Pre-Season Week 3
Pick 10 New England -7 (-110) against St. Louis to win 2 units
Pick 11 Green Bay -3.5 (-110) against Indianapolis to win 1 unit
Pre-Season Week 3
Pick 10 New England -7 (-110) against St. Louis to win 2 units
Pick 11 Green Bay -3.5 (-110) against Indianapolis to win 1 unit
you're fishing right?
Pick 10 New England -7 (-110) against St. Louis to win 2 units
to win 2 units at -110 i'm risking 2.2 units. and if you must know 1 unit for me = £100
Pick 10 New England -7 (-110) against St. Louis to win 2 units
to win 2 units at -110 i'm risking 2.2 units. and if you must know 1 unit for me = £100
Fishing? It was a genuine question because I virtually skimmed over your first post and have barely followed it since.
YTD: 6-5, 54%, +1.46u
Pre-Season Week 3
Pick 12: NY Jets -4.5 (-110) against Washington to win 2 units
Pick 13: New Orleans -3 (-116) against San Diego to win 3 units
Pre-Season Week 3
Pick 12: NY Jets -4.5 (-110) against Washington to win 2 units
Pick 13: New Orleans -3 (-116) against San Diego to win 3 units
YTD 7-6, 54%, +2.46u
Pre-Season Week 3
Pick 14: NY Giants +4(-105)at Baltimore to win 1 unit
Pick 15: San Francisco +1 (-106) at Oakland to win 1 unit
Pre-Season Week 3
Pick 14: NY Giants +4(-105)at Baltimore to win 1 unit
Pick 15: San Francisco +1 (-106) at Oakland to win 1 unit
YTD: 8-7, 53%, +2.41u
Pre-Season Week 3
Pick 16: Pittsburgh -2 (-110) at Denver to win 2 units
Pre-Season Week 3
Pick 16: Pittsburgh -2 (-110) at Denver to win 2 units
YTD: 8-8, 50%, +0.41u
Pre-Season Week 4
Pick 17: Tennessee -7.5 (-105) against New Orleans to win 1 unit
Pick 18: Denver +4 (-110) at Minnesota to win 1 unit
Pick 19: Miami -1.5 (-110) at Dallas to win 1 unit
Pick 20: Pittsburgh -6.5 (-103) against Carolina to win 1 unit
Pre-Season Week 4
Pick 17: Tennessee -7.5 (-105) against New Orleans to win 1 unit
Pick 18: Denver +4 (-110) at Minnesota to win 1 unit
Pick 19: Miami -1.5 (-110) at Dallas to win 1 unit
Pick 20: Pittsburgh -6.5 (-103) against Carolina to win 1 unit
YTD: 9-11, 45%, -1.84u
Week 1
picks 21-28
New Orleans -4.5 (-108) to win 2 units
Chicago -6.5 (-107) to win 1 unit
New England -4 (-108) to win 1 unit
Cleveland +3 (-107) to win 1 unit
Indianapolis -2 (-110) to win 2 units
Green Bay -3 (-102) to win 2 units
San Francisco -3 (+104) to win 2 units
Baltimore +2.5 (-110) to win 2 units
Week 1
picks 21-28
New Orleans -4.5 (-108) to win 2 units
Chicago -6.5 (-107) to win 1 unit
New England -4 (-108) to win 1 unit
Cleveland +3 (-107) to win 1 unit
Indianapolis -2 (-110) to win 2 units
Green Bay -3 (-102) to win 2 units
San Francisco -3 (+104) to win 2 units
Baltimore +2.5 (-110) to win 2 units
Week 1: 4-3-1, +1.93u
YTD: 13-14-1, 48%, +0.09u
Week 2
Picks 29-34
Baltimore -2.5 (-111) to win 2 units
Tennessee -5 (-104) to win 2 units
Chicago +7.5 (-104) to win 1 unit
Washington +3 (-110) to win 1 unit
Jacksonville +7 (-104) to win 1 unit
Indianapolis -5 (+101) to win 2 units
YTD: 13-14-1, 48%, +0.09u
Week 2
Picks 29-34
Baltimore -2.5 (-111) to win 2 units
Tennessee -5 (-104) to win 2 units
Chicago +7.5 (-104) to win 1 unit
Washington +3 (-110) to win 1 unit
Jacksonville +7 (-104) to win 1 unit
Indianapolis -5 (+101) to win 2 units
Week 2: 2-4-1, -3.37u
YTD: 15-18-2, 45%, -3.28u
Week 3
Picks 35-43 (all to win 1 unit)
NY Giants -3 (+103)
Cncinnati -3 (-109)
New Orleans -4 (+102)
Houston -2.5 (-106)
Washington -3.5 (-103)
Denver +6.5 (-110)
Oakland +4.5 (-102)
Green Bay -3 (+104)
49ers@Chiefs Over 36.5 (-110)
YTD: 15-18-2, 45%, -3.28u
Week 3
Picks 35-43 (all to win 1 unit)
NY Giants -3 (+103)
Cncinnati -3 (-109)
New Orleans -4 (+102)
Houston -2.5 (-106)
Washington -3.5 (-103)
Denver +6.5 (-110)
Oakland +4.5 (-102)
Green Bay -3 (+104)
49ers@Chiefs Over 36.5 (-110)
Week 3: 3-6, -3.19u
YTD: 18-24-2, 43%, -6.47u
had a horrible 2 weeks but hopefully can turn it around this week.
Week 4
Picks 44-50
Baltimore@Pittsburgh Over 34 (-107) to win 1 unit
NY Jets -5 (-110) to win 3 units
Chicago +4 (-110) to win 2 units
Green Bay -14 (-110) to win 2 units
New England -1 (-110) to win 1 unit
Washington@Philly Over 42.5 (-110) to win 1 unit
Houston@Oakland Under 43.5 (-110) to win 1 unit
YTD: 18-24-2, 43%, -6.47u
had a horrible 2 weeks but hopefully can turn it around this week.
Week 4
Picks 44-50
Baltimore@Pittsburgh Over 34 (-107) to win 1 unit
NY Jets -5 (-110) to win 3 units
Chicago +4 (-110) to win 2 units
Green Bay -14 (-110) to win 2 units
New England -1 (-110) to win 1 unit
Washington@Philly Over 42.5 (-110) to win 1 unit
Houston@Oakland Under 43.5 (-110) to win 1 unit
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