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arthur bitter
23 Jun 10 23:07
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Date Joined: 11 Oct 01
| Topic/replies: 279 | Blogger: arthur bitter's blog
The Mets are 1.85 at the moment which is very good value for a team that is 25 - 10 at home being visited by a club that is 13 - 20 on the road. Not to mention New York are probally the hottest team over the past month or so and outscored Detroit 14 - 6 last night to prove their still sizzling.

As for the pitchers; it is a complete mismatch favouring the Mets. Dickey has won his last 5 starts and while Bonderman is also on some form, he has terrible splits: 5.26 ERA at night and a 6.03 ERA on the road. Dickey has a 2.19 ERA at home and a 2.30 ERA at night.

Sorry you had to read all that just for a tip but make it worth your while! Cool

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Replies: 56
By:
SM
When: 23 Jun 10 23:50
The price reflects uncertainty about Dickey who is pitching far above anything he has shown in his career previously.

Is Dickey likely to keep pitching so well? Well, he's 35 so you'd usually say that he's just been very lucky this year and that regression to the mean surely awaits.

However, it is conceivable that Dickey has finally mastered the dark art of knuckleballing. He's only been a knuckleballer since 2006 and it's a really hard skill to perfect.

Dickey's a difficult pitcher to price up. Clearly he won't maintain a sub 2.50 ERA this season but how much he regresses is anybody's guess.
By:
arthur bitter
When: 23 Jun 10 23:54
I know Dickey is a disaster waiting to happen, he is like Wakefield; either shut the oppents down completely or get lit up. He should be even money every time.

But unlike Wakefield, Dickey has show consistency and you can't go against his great form. Also unlike Wakefield, Dickey can get away with mistakes pitching at Citi field while Wakefield is pitching in the most hitter friendly ballpark in the bigs.

Are you on anything tonight SM?
By:
SM
When: 24 Jun 10 00:08
To be fair to Wakefield he's won 160 odd more games in his career than Dickey. Wakefield's been a bit unlucky this season (his 2.59 K/BB ratio is his best effort since 2002), certainly not as bad as his ERA or record would suggest.

Speaking of Boston, I'm betting them tonight against Colorado. Ubaldo's a hard man to oppose, of course, but he's probably going to have to be at his best to subdue the hard hitting Red Sox. Shorn of Tulo I also don't like the look of the Colorado batting line-up much.
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 00:10
Starting now, are you watching it?
By:
SM
When: 24 Jun 10 00:16
No. Watching Toronto-St Louis. Good luck with your bet arthur.
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 00:16
arthur

what you thinking over under 8.5 runs here?
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 00:19
8.5 is pretty low considering the two pitchers and the hot offences, the spread is always low at Citi because of the dimensions. The wind is not doing much so i would take overs... What you on?
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 00:20
Out of trouble there Dickey... Cool
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 00:21
trying to get matched on overs

poor liquidity
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 00:28
Ha, commentator said: 'If Reyes hits a leadoff triple you might aswell put that run on board' leadoff triple and no run Confused
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 00:29
You should get matched now...
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 00:30
trying to get 50 on at 2.5

had a bit of 2.04

also got money at 1.9 waiting on NY METS

in play liquidity shocking unless you like getting mugged
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 00:30
Wow, just looked at the total runs market, very poor liquidity...
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 00:33
Web Gem there by Ike Davis [smiley:crazy]
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 00:35
matched 60 on mets at 1.9

leaving runs alone now

slow start
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 00:35
Yeah good idea, good luck...
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 00:37
Bonderman has 4 straight outs but he doesn't look that impressive...
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 00:38
managed to get 20 more on mets at 1.8
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 00:40
Bonderman has thrown 14 of 16 pitches for strikes, that is too aggressive. They should be able to punish him next time through the lineup. Look for the runs to start to flow soon...
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 00:42
was thinking that

some decent prices available on overs now
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 00:51
The Mets need men on base, Bonderman is bad pitching out of the stretch...
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 00:55
finally a run
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 00:56
Could of been two if that ball went into the corner..
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 00:57
yes missed opportunity there

good runners
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 01:05
Did you watch England today Chelsea?
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 01:09
Lazy at-bats there by the Mets...
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 01:11
yes mate i did

was very nervous in the last 10 minutes

germany will be a very tough game

-30
-30

in run market

+40
+45 mets

in match odds lol
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 01:13
Thats an ok book i suppose [;)]

Enland played alot better than their first 2 games, but will struggle against Germany...
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 01:13
First strikeout for Dickey [:D]
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 01:14
It was only Bonderman though, he has as much chance of hitting the knuckleball as Heskey has in scoring a goal...
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 01:23
thats outta here!

reyes!

yes mate heskey is a terrible player, so glad he dropped him

are you american? your boys done well mate
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 01:24
Ha, no I'm English. Do i seem American?
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 01:31
no - its just you seem to know your stuff with the baseball thought you maybe a yank Happy

im more of a casual watcher

and the north american forum

is it always this dead here?

i would have thought in play MLB would have better liquidity aswell
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 01:33
I saw a game the other day with 150k on it by the end of it, not even televised. It's strange how games go from one extreme to another in terms of liquidity.

That's a bit like the forum, either a big discussion or nothing...
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 01:36
Wow someone was laying the tigers at 6.4, very good price giving it is close game and detroit have very explosive hitters...
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 01:38
im thinking METS price is a bit skinny here

going to lay a little
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 01:40
You should wait till a break really, someone may have coverage quicker than you [:(]
By:
chelsea_blue
When: 24 Jun 10 01:41
im laying at my own odds

not getting matched just put a few hundred in at 1.15

no one wanst to match it anyway
By:
arthur bitter
When: 24 Jun 10 01:44
It's fun watching Zumaya, hardest thrower in the bigs [:D]
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