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As I'm confined to my bed, I thought I'd throw this out there ... for what it's worth! All my betting is informed by my interest in fantasy sports, so forgive the whiff of pre-draft analysis.
American League
AL EAST
I picked the bombers last year to go all the way and they duly obliged, but despite freshening up the outfield and adding Vazquez, Im going to oppose them this year, both Divisionally and for the whole thing. Theyre old enough in key areas to under-perform and those players are the pinstripes beating heart. Guys like Jeter cant OVER-perform two years running .... can they?
That leaves the Bosox and the Rays (even Im not prepared to put my beloved Birds forward and the Blue Jays are rebuilding) and Im going to favour the Rays at the price. Boston has swung into defensive mode and I dont like the loss of Bay, despite Epsteins best efforts and the addition of Lackey.
Tampa are young and fell away last year thats two knocks on them but I like the fact they got proactive and plugged the gap at the back of the
American League
AL EAST
I picked the bombers last year to go all the way and they duly obliged, but despite freshening up the outfield and adding Vazquez, Im going to oppose them this year, both Divisionally and for the whole thing. Theyre old enough in key areas to under-perform and those players are the pinstripes beating heart. Guys like Jeter cant OVER-perform two years running .... can they?
That leaves the Bosox and the Rays (even Im not prepared to put my beloved Birds forward and the Blue Jays are rebuilding) and Im going to favour the Rays at the price. Boston has swung into defensive mode and I dont like the loss of Bay, despite Epsteins best efforts and the addition of Lackey.
Tampa are young and fell away last year thats two knocks on them but I like the fact they got proactive and plugged the gap at the back of the
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I think you are a little bit harsh on the Whitesox. Danks and Floyd would get into most rotations so its not just Peavy and Buerhle.
Their Bullpen also looks like ti could be very solid this year after adding Pena and Putz and Thornton looks like a closer in waiting.
There is also speed and power in abundance in their lineup. Pierre was a great pick up.
I havent looked at their odds yet but feel that they are well equipped to go well this year. Ill take them at 9/4
I totally agree on the Angels being there for the taking. But im going with Texas rather than the Mariners.
Texas will outscore most teams, outside of the Phillies and Yanks, this could be the strongest hitting lineup in the Major Leagues.
If Harden stays fit for a whole year, he could inspire this bunch of young hoodlems :p and between Francisco and CJ Wilson this is a promising bullpen.
The lack of Power in Seattle really puts me off so ill take 9/4 about the Rangers too :)
I love Tampa at 6/1 though. Same reasons as you darling :)
Their Bullpen also looks like ti could be very solid this year after adding Pena and Putz and Thornton looks like a closer in waiting.
There is also speed and power in abundance in their lineup. Pierre was a great pick up.
I havent looked at their odds yet but feel that they are well equipped to go well this year. Ill take them at 9/4
I totally agree on the Angels being there for the taking. But im going with Texas rather than the Mariners.
Texas will outscore most teams, outside of the Phillies and Yanks, this could be the strongest hitting lineup in the Major Leagues.
If Harden stays fit for a whole year, he could inspire this bunch of young hoodlems :p and between Francisco and CJ Wilson this is a promising bullpen.
The lack of Power in Seattle really puts me off so ill take 9/4 about the Rangers too :)
I love Tampa at 6/1 though. Same reasons as you darling :)
Well, you say 'darling', but Harden is clearly your squeeze. You're obsessed with the girl!
Danks and who? ;)
Danks and who? ;)
In the National League :
The Phillies look a mortal lock at 8/13. Too much power, too much speed and too much pitching.
In the Central however I really like the look of the Brewers this year. The Cards are worthy favs but 8/13? Ill take Prince and Braun to keep this close and at 9/1, definately worth a shout.
The Cubs are perennial losers so best to avoid :^0 .
The DBacks look interesting to me at 9/2 especially if Webb is back to his old self. HUdson came back awesome so why cant Webb ( for the sake of my fantasy team :( ) . Haren and Webb? Yes please. (that sounded so gay :| ) . This team WILL score runs this year too.
The Phillies look a mortal lock at 8/13. Too much power, too much speed and too much pitching.
In the Central however I really like the look of the Brewers this year. The Cards are worthy favs but 8/13? Ill take Prince and Braun to keep this close and at 9/1, definately worth a shout.
The Cubs are perennial losers so best to avoid :^0 .
The DBacks look interesting to me at 9/2 especially if Webb is back to his old self. HUdson came back awesome so why cant Webb ( for the sake of my fantasy team :( ) . Haren and Webb? Yes please. (that sounded so gay :| ) . This team WILL score runs this year too.
Oh and im backing the Rangers/ White Sox / DBacks and Brewers for the WS also :)
Good stuff Uncle O.
For one reason or another I had a full season 'off' baseball last year, and I mean totally 'off' - no fantasy, mlbtv, not one bet, nothing. I didn't even watch the World Series. In fact I didn't know who won until I looked it up last week. (When I found out I was quite glad I'd missed it all, as a Red Sox man). I wasn't in jail, but I might as well have been. My spare time is occupied by home and away Man City watching and I'm unsure if I can fit baseball into it again, especially in a World Cup summer.
I've decided within the last week to go for it, but it's very strange trying to catch up a year's knowledge. It ma/y be too late for fantasy this season as I've missed the drafts, but I'm starting off modestly by trying to come up with a divisional six-timer. You know, the sort of bet that will instantly pay off your mortgage just in time for Christmas.
I'm leaning heavily on the top online resources/stats: you know the ones I mean:
Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA; CHONE; The Hardball Times; Uncle O's 2010 Betting Preview.
So far I'm leaning towards these as value picks:
AL EAST - Boston 7/2 (wont back the Yanks and refuse to believe Tampa can finish above BOTH the big guns)
AL CENTRAL - Cleveland 12/1 (obviously a long shot, but big odds for such a poor division where anything over .500 may be enough)
AL WEST - Texas 9/4 (though tempted by Oakland @ 9/1 - why exactly are they so big?)
NL EAST - Atlanta 7/2 (Seems a coin toss to me so Phillies are a big lay at the prices)
NL CENTRAL - St Louis 8/13 (absolute lock, should be 1/3)
NL WEST - Colorado 11/4 (should be favourites)
For one reason or another I had a full season 'off' baseball last year, and I mean totally 'off' - no fantasy, mlbtv, not one bet, nothing. I didn't even watch the World Series. In fact I didn't know who won until I looked it up last week. (When I found out I was quite glad I'd missed it all, as a Red Sox man). I wasn't in jail, but I might as well have been. My spare time is occupied by home and away Man City watching and I'm unsure if I can fit baseball into it again, especially in a World Cup summer.
I've decided within the last week to go for it, but it's very strange trying to catch up a year's knowledge. It ma/y be too late for fantasy this season as I've missed the drafts, but I'm starting off modestly by trying to come up with a divisional six-timer. You know, the sort of bet that will instantly pay off your mortgage just in time for Christmas.
I'm leaning heavily on the top online resources/stats: you know the ones I mean:
Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA; CHONE; The Hardball Times; Uncle O's 2010 Betting Preview.
So far I'm leaning towards these as value picks:
AL EAST - Boston 7/2 (wont back the Yanks and refuse to believe Tampa can finish above BOTH the big guns)
AL CENTRAL - Cleveland 12/1 (obviously a long shot, but big odds for such a poor division where anything over .500 may be enough)
AL WEST - Texas 9/4 (though tempted by Oakland @ 9/1 - why exactly are they so big?)
NL EAST - Atlanta 7/2 (Seems a coin toss to me so Phillies are a big lay at the prices)
NL CENTRAL - St Louis 8/13 (absolute lock, should be 1/3)
NL WEST - Colorado 11/4 (should be favourites)
Great to see you back, RJ :)
I'm worried though, that the combination of being an ardent Man City fan and leaning on my MLB thoughts, means that really you've been MIA as a result of being locked in a rubber room!
I wouldn't put you off any of those picks necessarily, and the mortgage killing acca may be lurking in there somewhere. I'm just not a fan of accas or short prices in MLB.
You're right about AL Central, but I don't like the lack of activity by the Tribe. They'll need guys like Sizemore and Hafner to bounce back, as well as Carmona, Westbrook and Wood. Too many imponderables for my taste. Minnesota look the danger, but I liked Detroit at the price; notwithstanding the back of their rotation.
I believe the A's are unfancied as a result of last year's performance (usually a betting opportunity in my view) and the feeling that they are still in transition and the lack of offense. They're always a target for criticism on that front because of the decline of guys like Cust (free agency bust) and the lack of punch from the middle order in general. The Kooz might help them out.
Also, the A's rotation is suspect from a health point of view. I doubt the top of the rotation is going to do enough work to get them anywhere near the post-season; Sheets always falls over, it's just a question of when. The younger pitchers look vulnerable and Bailey is face to face with the sophmore curse.
I'd swerve them.
I'm worried though, that the combination of being an ardent Man City fan and leaning on my MLB thoughts, means that really you've been MIA as a result of being locked in a rubber room!
I wouldn't put you off any of those picks necessarily, and the mortgage killing acca may be lurking in there somewhere. I'm just not a fan of accas or short prices in MLB.
You're right about AL Central, but I don't like the lack of activity by the Tribe. They'll need guys like Sizemore and Hafner to bounce back, as well as Carmona, Westbrook and Wood. Too many imponderables for my taste. Minnesota look the danger, but I liked Detroit at the price; notwithstanding the back of their rotation.
I believe the A's are unfancied as a result of last year's performance (usually a betting opportunity in my view) and the feeling that they are still in transition and the lack of offense. They're always a target for criticism on that front because of the decline of guys like Cust (free agency bust) and the lack of punch from the middle order in general. The Kooz might help them out.
Also, the A's rotation is suspect from a health point of view. I doubt the top of the rotation is going to do enough work to get them anywhere near the post-season; Sheets always falls over, it's just a question of when. The younger pitchers look vulnerable and Bailey is face to face with the sophmore curse.
I'd swerve them.
Still waiting for Amazon to deliver Baseball Prospectus. Getting twitchy.
After a few days research I'm strong on St Louis, Atlanta and Colorado for their divisions. (Don't you love instant experts?). The others I'm more prepared to be swayed. I can only imagine I was smoking crack or something when I thought the Red Sox were 7/2 to win the AL East (it's their AL pennant price). I'll rethink that one (perhaps). I don't spread bet but I may find somewhere to go long on the Nationals win total.
Interested to know who people think are currently the best sportsbooks to use for baseball for day to day betting.
After a few days research I'm strong on St Louis, Atlanta and Colorado for their divisions. (Don't you love instant experts?). The others I'm more prepared to be swayed. I can only imagine I was smoking crack or something when I thought the Red Sox were 7/2 to win the AL East (it's their AL pennant price). I'll rethink that one (perhaps). I don't spread bet but I may find somewhere to go long on the Nationals win total.
Interested to know who people think are currently the best sportsbooks to use for baseball for day to day betting.
National League
NL EAST
Im hating on the Mets. OK, they went after Bay, but other than that it was a messy off-season with lots of tinkering at the margins, but nothing to get too excited about. Theyre still difficult to read because all of the same questions remain, none of which were successfully answered last season, but that doesnt mean they wont this year. They should hit better (although Reyes has fallen over and the idea of a
NL EAST
Im hating on the Mets. OK, they went after Bay, but other than that it was a messy off-season with lots of tinkering at the margins, but nothing to get too excited about. Theyre still difficult to read because all of the same questions remain, none of which were successfully answered last season, but that doesnt mean they wont this year. They should hit better (although Reyes has fallen over and the idea of a
Nice write up, think i'll be looking at some A's game this year, and laying the shorty opponents. Their smallball will get them some unexpected wins :)
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