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I would say i am a frequent user of the MLB markets and when it comes to pricing up the two teams in my head i have to weigh up two major factors; the pitcher and of course, the rest of his team.
The reason i say team instead of lineup is because that the relievers play as much as a part in helping the starting pitcher as the offense does. The Mets bullpen cost Santana roughly 8 wins last season with their poor efforts. Not to mention the lack of run support he recieved. And this what brings me to my main question, does the pitcher really need that much support, or will good hurler find a way to win anygame? Tim Lincecum had some of the worst run support (if not the worst) in the league last year but still managed to notch 15 wins and only 7 losses. It can also be shown that a team will feed of a pitcher's performance and visa-versa, but who is more important in the the scheme of betting?
The reason i say team instead of lineup is because that the relievers play as much as a part in helping the starting pitcher as the offense does. The Mets bullpen cost Santana roughly 8 wins last season with their poor efforts. Not to mention the lack of run support he recieved. And this what brings me to my main question, does the pitcher really need that much support, or will good hurler find a way to win anygame? Tim Lincecum had some of the worst run support (if not the worst) in the league last year but still managed to notch 15 wins and only 7 losses. It can also be shown that a team will feed of a pitcher's performance and visa-versa, but who is more important in the the scheme of betting?
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Hard to split imo - markets often overreact to elite pitchers as well as big name teams
From a personal point of view i'd rather have the team on my side |
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Yeah, depending on the teams and pitchers you can see a 3 game series go: 1.5, 2.7, 2.1.
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Baseball betting revolves round the Pitchers. The market is set 100% on the starting pitchers.
A good team will struggle against a bad team with an excellent pitcher and a bad team will beat a good team with a duff pitcher. Without the slightest of doubt, the Pitcher is the most important player. |
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So it's the Yankees(guthrie) v Pittsburg(greinke) at a neutral venue how do you bet?
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Good question.
You'd have a whole load more stats at your disposal usually, unless they decided to open the season with this game in Japan like they did with Boston and Oakland a couple of years ago. I'd probably bet Yankees 2.15 / Pirates 1.87 for that matchup. |
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Well Greinke was just filthly last year and with a pitcher like that the pirates would just play small ball to beat the Bronx Bombers. Go for a safe 3 or 4 runs agains Guthrie and Zack shouldn't waste the support. I would price it up as the Yanks - 2.52 Pirates 1.64
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Yanks @ 2.52 yes please :)
reckon it's quite close |
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Who's more important, the pitcher or the team...?
" YOUR OWN BACK POCKET " |
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later on in the season,i pay alot of attention to the lefty/righty match-ups..you will find some teams batting 278 against a righty and 223 versus a lefty..cheers
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i will todasy share the big value bet for the world series, the rockies at 20/1, get on quick!
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