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orioles
10 Sep 09 21:51
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Date Joined: 26 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 9,509 | Blogger: orioles's blog
Tenn @ Pitts

Wow! What an opener! This should be a real squeaker too.

This has everything I like; grudges (a bit of towel stamping after a beating) bitterness at a lost opportunity (the Ravens? Really?) an off-season full of tabloid junk (it ain't so, Ben) Pro bowlers butting heads and a couple of good teams ready to roll.

These two are practically unchanged from last season, but the one crucial change of course, is Haynesworth. The effect of his loss on the Titans, is one of those unknown knowables we sometimes don't know about. Interestingly, when Haynesworth didn't play last year, Tennessee went 1-4 ... the game they won without him? Against the Steelers. All that aside, I see the Titans pressuring Big Ben again just because they are confident they can dammit, and shackling the Steelers pretty effectively, particularly on the ground.

I really like the Titans' offense. Collins is more settled, White and Johnson are a nice one two punch and there are options downfield.

The Titans have won four of the last five matchups and the only loss was when Parker (remember him?) ran all over them.

The other reason for taking the Titans is the price. They are on offer at 3.7+ and 3.5+ generally and I can't resist that kind of value on a good side with a live chance.

Personally, I tend not to bet on the first couple of weeks of the season, but as it's the opener, I'll take a small interest to go alongside my bacon sarnies and pot of tea ...

Pick: Titans SU @ 3.5+

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Replies: 68
By:
Tom Petty is God
When: 10 Sep 09 21:57
good post

one very picky thing

it's johnson and white not white and johnson
By:
orioles
When: 10 Sep 09 21:59
White and Johnson is a talcum powder, isn't it?

Fair enough though ...
By:
orioles
When: 11 Sep 09 00:00
Bironas making my ulcer ache :|
By:
orioles
When: 11 Sep 09 00:42
:_|

Shoot him.
By:
DoggyLFC
When: 11 Sep 09 03:03
Even with one of those missed figgy's you would have still lost ;)
By:
orioles
When: 13 Sep 09 13:26
Uncle Os Game of the Week

Dal @ TB

What happens when you get an attention hungry girl and boy out of your life? Well, you may just be able to concentrate on doing what they pay you millions of dollars to do. Jones has been packed off too, as the decks are cleared in Irving.

Dallas arent going to be slinging it about like a short order cook at a San Antonio diner, but this may be Tampas Alamo.

I take Romo to have a nice season and to marshal the Cowboys offense with a more settled mind. I know that T.O. was on the end of Romos big numbers, but Williams can provide. I suspect the Cowboys will be a little
By:
orioles
When: 20 Sep 09 14:05
Uncle Os Game of the Week

Hou @ Ten


Well, having predicted that Dallas would throttle back on their passing game (Romo 16-27, 353) and that Leftwich would be sacked all day (0) Im reminded why I leave the first two weeks alone.

However, I like this matchup and, with Tennessee giving up less than a TD, its my game of the week.

Houston were poor at the Jets last week, where they had trouble moving the ball on the ground, ending the game with just 183 yards. Their only TD came 17 points down, on an interception. By the end, Schaub had the look of a man resigned to pass rushers using him as a dancefloor, as the Jets blitzed them off the park.

Tennessee on the other hand, put up a solid performance on defense against the World Champs with little sign theyre missing fat Albert, conceding a solitary TD. Presumably, the Titans will copy the Jets; key safety coverage on Johnson, rush Schaub and jump on Slaton. It aint rocket surgery.

The Texans will be wary of the Titans running game, because they know that if Chris Johnson gets free he can do real damage and the stats suggest that if he puts up big numbers, the games over (Titans are 4-0 when he reaches 100 yards). The Houston front four were weak against the Jets and I expect the Titans to find some room to run. LenDale White has scored four times in the last four encounters; proof, if it were ever needed, that you should leave the Tequila alone, kids.

With the box stacked, Collins should be able to find some receivers downfield. He was solid last week (22-35, 244, TD, interception) against a strong D and I like Gage, Washington, Britt and Cook (if he plays) to make some grabs against a weak Texans secondary.

On the negative side?

It cant be denied that the Texans have the weapons on offense, but they are spiked, at least temporarily. Walter and Davis are banged up and this shifts even more pressure over to Johnson who, as excellent as he is, will be getting all the love the Titans have got to give. Slaton is no slouch and has nice numbers against the Titans. Despite his poor showing against the Jets (17 yards on 9 carries) hes still a risk. However, Tennessee performed well against the run last week and Ill trust them to keep him bottled up. He remains my biggest fear though, next to my having to get a job or bathe regularly.

Id also like to see the special teams step up for Tennessee. Dallas gave me fits on ST last week and it looks as though the Titans werent exactly thrilling in that department either.

The Titans have had the whip hand in these encounters recently (6-1 in Tennessee all-time and have won the last four in Nashville. Fisher is 11-3 against the Texans. Kubiak is 1-5 against both Fisher and Tennessee as a head coach) and I make Tennessee at least 10 points better than Houston at home in this Divisional game, so giving up 6.5 is a no-brainer ... right? Right?

Pick: Ten -6.5 @ 1.91
Pick: First TD LenDale White @ 8.00
Pick: Anytime TD Justin Gage @ 3.00


ATS Nap
Ari +3

The rest ...
Atl -6.5
Min -10
Bal +3
Pit -3
GB -9.5
Oak -3
NO SU
NYJ +3.5
Was -10
Buf -5
SF -1
Den -3
NYG +3
Ind -3

Acca
Atl
Ten
Buf
Ind @ 4.0+

Value Acca
Bal
NYJ
NYG @ 13.0+

Next week:
By:
Tom Petty is God
When: 22 Sep 09 08:25
is that 10 right and 1 push, with the value acca landed, good going

i managed only 9-7 (21/11) outright but 13-3 ats
By:
orioles
When: 27 Sep 09 14:29
Uncle Os Game of the Week

Miami @ San Diego


Wow, how did the fins not put away the Colts? Manning and the ball were barely acquainted all day, but Indy galloped outta town with the win. Surely Miami are due a win with the wildcat?

Well, that thinking and LTs absence (amongst other injuries) has kept the line low all week and I believe at -5.5 SD, its about 4 points too low and I shall be smashing in with the full £2. Now, Im trying to be shrewd here and, as Zeeny will confirm, Im not very smart, so I reserve the right to look a berk as the Miami run gashes San Diego!

What Im relying on here is the Chargers preying on Miamis vulnerability to the big play and holding Miami on D. Im confident Rivers, Gates and Jackson will put up some big numbers against Gibril Wilson and a secondary under construction. Rivers put up 436 yards last week, but two picks hurt the bolts badly as the Ravens took them both back for scores. Sproles has taken on a slightly different role from LT in the backfield, but still provides Rivers with options, so San Diego have the weapons in a nice matchup, because sure as eggs is eggs, Miami arent Baltimore on defense.

If the Chargers think they were unlucky last week, the Dolphins are sobbing into their**coladas; 45+ minutes of possession and still Peyton places them in the loss column. That hurts. But this is where I have a problem with Miami and believe they are getting too much respect; they cant move the ball without the wildcat and eventually, defenses will adapt, or their execution will stutter and then theyre left with Pennington and his 5.8 yard bombs. This means that blitzing the QB isnt such a priority (it wouls still be nice for Merriman to find some form ... and he might!) and defensive patterns can be adapted to cope with trick plays.

The downside? Well, the Bolts D has gaps and injuries have robbed them of key players on both sides of the ball. Miami will try to keep Rivers off the field just like they did with the Colts, and San Diego has given up yards on the ground, but Im not buying the wildcat/run two weeks in a row in a game where adaptation is everything.

Remember too, Miami are coming off a short week and long trip. So Im laying the points.

SD -5.5 @ 1.9+

First TD Antonio Gates @ 9
To score anytime Ricky Williams @ 2.6+


ATS Naps
Bal -13.5
NYG -6

The rest ...
Phi -8.5
Wash -6
StL +7
SF +7
Ten +3
Atl +4.5
Hou -3.5
Chi -2.5
Buf +6
Oak +2.5
Cin +3.5
Ind +3
Dal -8.5

Acca
Phi
NYG
Min @ 3.4+

Value Acca
Buf
Oak
Cin @ 18+

[b]
By:
Tom Petty is God
When: 27 Sep 09 14:33
that acca is value, can easily see it winning
By:
orioles
When: 04 Oct 09 11:15
Uncle Os Game of the Week

St. Louis @ San Francisco


Gores gone baby, Gores gone, but I like a nice steaming cup o Coffee.

The Rams are horrible and losing Bulger and Robinson makes them look ripe for a prison yard beating. True, Jackson is a top back, but the 49ers managed to stifle the Vikes on the ground, and if they can hold Peterson, Jackson shouldnt do too much damage. Singletary is using some innovative schemes and the SF D is shaping nicely; Favres
By:
zeeny
When: 04 Oct 09 13:46
When the PC throws out Den +3 as best bet, you know it's time for an upgrade uncle O.
In the end, 640k may not be enough...
By:
orioles
When: 04 Oct 09 13:50
It's the program's best bet by a country mile too :)

To be fair, when I paid the $1,500, he did say that the data required would mean that predictions were unreliable until about Week 13 :|
By:
cunnybobbler
When: 04 Oct 09 13:56
im surprised the nfl let isaac bruce play with his zimmerframe
By:
orioles
When: 04 Oct 09 14:44
You won't be saying that after his 80yd TD reception tonight.
By:
orioles
When: 10 Oct 09 23:29
Uncle Os Game of the Week

Minnesota at St. Louis


I feel like Im bullying them, but St. Louis stink. Theyve been badly hit with injuries (another 6 starters may be out this weekend) but they honk. Im even taking on one of my
By:
Tom Petty is God
When: 11 Oct 09 09:35
is this computer a denver fan ?
By:
tevez's turkey neck
When: 11 Oct 09 13:36
tom petty disagreeing? surely not.
By:
Tom Petty is God
When: 11 Oct 09 13:38
disagreeing with what?
By:
tevez's turkey neck
When: 11 Oct 09 13:39
mainly with what people have said.

that is all.
By:
orioles
When: 11 Oct 09 14:24
I am merely the messenger for HAL 9000.
By:
glory hornet
When: 11 Oct 09 15:11
Tom keep up the good work , Minnesota -9.5 for my pennys worth
By:
cunnybobbler
When: 11 Oct 09 15:14
'puter picks definitely get beat this week imo. maybe it has a virus?
By:
cunnybobbler
When: 11 Oct 09 15:16
my 'puter (my brain lol) says washington and denver lose on those hcps. feel free to gloat if im wrong and your vic 20 is right ;)
By:
orioles
When: 11 Oct 09 15:17
Careful CB, HAL will refuse to open the bomb doors next week! :(
By:
glory hornet
When: 11 Oct 09 19:17
My peny was worth it
By:
cunnybobbler
When: 12 Oct 09 21:42
wow. 4 out of 4 on the puter handicaps! cap fully dothed and suchlike. from this moment onwards i shall never diss HAL again! all hail the mighty HAL and all who sail in her! time to start singing...you can call me HAL
By:
orioles
When: 12 Oct 09 21:55
I'm mildly excited about Prog1, I must be honest.

It's gone 8-5 SU this week, but 10-3 ATS. It's 9-1 on it's top rated picks for the season.

If it keeps it up for a couple of seasons, I may start betting on its picks!
By:
orioles
When: 18 Oct 09 15:29
Uncle Os Game of the Week

Baltimore @ Minnesota


OK, I admit it, Im struggling with my overpowering man-love for Jared Allen. The guy is a G-O-D and while I wouldnt pick solely on the basis of a crush I have on a 66
By:
rink rat
When: 20 Oct 09 03:21
Good value accumulator, that should keep you in weiners and beans for a while.
By:
orioles
When: 20 Oct 09 13:16
I have wronged Prog1 though, I posted the wrong selections :(

My weiner will be like ashes in my mouth.

Oh wow.
By:
orioles
When: 25 Oct 09 15:58
Uncle Os Game of the Week

Atlanta @ Dallas


I dont get this line at all and it may be that Ill be made to look more stupid than usual with this pick, not Tom Petty is God stoopid, but pretty stupid nonetheless.

Is Romo a bust? Well, I suspect hes slipping further down Jerry Jones Christmas card list every week and although Ryan isnt Zeeny under centre (Bulgarian HOF) hes getting it rolling and if Atlanta can get Turner involved (I wish Ovie Mughelli was fit), I can see the Falcons taking this straight up. Look for some of the Falcons deep threat to finally see some love, if only because the Cowboys pass rush is not the one youd fear at the moment (tied for 23rd in the NFL with 10 sacks on the season) especially with DeMarcus Ware playing hurt and Atlanta protecting Ryan nicely (no sacks in the last 4). I expect Meg to stand in and find Gonzo, White and Jenkins downfield against a ropey Dallas secondary.

Dallas has the weapons and stopping the run will be a key for the Falcons, similarly the Atlanta secondary are a fresh faced bunch, who have given up a lot of yards. However, the Falcons D seems to transform in the redzone and has proved difficult to score on, although losing CB Brian Williams will be a big blow. Im looking for some pressure on Romo (either via the pass rush, unlikely, or from the scoreboard) to expose perhaps his greatest weakness, his poor decision making.

Pick: Atl +4

Pick: First TD Tony Gonzalez @ 11
Pick: Anytime TD Miles Austin @ 2.5


ATS Naps
Ind -13
SD -4.5
NO -6
Car -7

The Rest
Chi +1
TB +14.5
Min +5.5
Hou -3
GB -9
Oak +6
Ari +7
Phi -7 (Buy Sacks Supremacy Phi/Was @ 1)

Acca
GB
SD
NO @ 2.5+

Value Acca
Chi
Oak
Atl

Puter Picks
Prog1
No bet

Prog2
No bet

Puter Totals
NO/Mia Over 47
Min/Pit Over 45
Buf/Car Over 37
SF/Hou Over 44

Results so far
4/2 GOW
6/6 ATS NAPS
51/38/1 ATS
3/3 Acca
2/3 Value Acca

[b]
By:
orioles
When: 01 Nov 09 15:25
Uncle Os Game of the Week

Min @ GB


Hell, its live and its Favre Bowl, so why not? This is a difficult one though, so I wont be refinancing my trailer to smash in.

Well, packing the box (geddit?) all day (GEDDIT, AGAIN? Man, Im on fire) didnt work for Green Bay last time out against the Vikings and Favre had an easy gig on third down, converting 9-11 and putting Minnesota over the top. Stopping Adrian Peterson is always important, but the Pack have to bring it in the early downs if theyre going to keep Favre and the rapidly developing Rice off the board (11 receptions for 136 yards last week).

Its not particularly the Packers defense that worries me however, its their O line. Rodgers has been getting poorly protected all season and they really need to give him a chance because, if they do, he can get it done. In the last matchup between these two, Rodgers was sacked 8 times, but the knock was on the QB who held the ball for more than four seconds on 6 of those occasions. No O line is going to afford you that much time, so lets hope hes been working on his release. The possible return of Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton should help. My man-love for Jared Allen has been well documented and he has done nothing to put me off him (that restraining order has no effect in the UK) but with Winfield out, there are chances for Rodgers against a soft Minnesota secondary. My other worry would be the relative weakness of the Packs opponents (2-11 opponents), but Ill offset that with the Vikes triple
By:
orioles
When: 08 Nov 09 15:06
Uncle Os Game of the Week

San Diego at New York


Well, any team that can beat the Raiders ...

Actually, it would appear that even that cupcake victory had interesting elements for todays matchup. The Chargers seem to be pulling it together on defense, which has been a worry after having previously shown little interest.

With the defense finding some form Im taking the bolts plus the points, because the Giants offense has begun to stutter, their secondary is missing key players and Rivers can get it done.

Like Pittsburgh, New York will try to run it up the gut, but Bradshaw and Jacobs have looked off their game a little recently and the SD run D is moving forward. Plan B will fall to Manning to get it downfield and I have no confidence in him at the moment. He looks rushed and uncomfortable in the pocket.

One interesting stat is that New York ranks first in 20+ yard plays, as teams have stuffed the box to stop the run, allowing Manning to hit big plays vertically. On the other side of that stat today is San Diegos D, which ranks fourth AGAINST the 20+ yard play. The Giants usual gamebreaking plays downfield therefore, are reliant on a QB who is seriously out of form, against a team who can defend those plays.

Rivers has thrown on everyone and Jackson is an elite receiver capable of troubling any secondary, let alone the badly banged up New York secondary. The Giants reputation on D is odd: on the one hand they rank third in ypg allowed, but on the other they rank 22nd in ppg. I like Sproles to make some plays, but theres no getting away from the fact that the Chargers running game is the most God awful bust, although even here, LT began to show some signs of life last week.

This is a matchup between two fragile teams and I suspect the one that starts best and gets some momentum will come out on top. Its a big game that really requires the Giants to step up if theyve got any ambitions on the season, but there are just too many holes for my liking. Dont bet huge, but take the points.

I like the Overs here too, as I expect something of a shootout.

Pick: San Diego +4.5
Pick: Over 47.5

Pick: First TD Vincent Jackson @ 10.5
Pick: Any time TD Steve Smith @ 2.25

ATS Naps

SF -4
NO -12.5
NE -10.5

The rest ...
Wash +9
Ari +2
Jax -7
Ind -8
Bal -3
GB -9.5
Sea -10
Phi -3
Den +3

Acca
Atl
Ind
Jax @ 2.14

Value Acca
Ari
Cin
Den @ 12

[b]
By:
rink rat
When: 09 Nov 09 04:59
I knew this was a tough week, you can bail out with Denver though. I like em too.
By:
orioles
When: 09 Nov 09 15:06
I've had a severe kicking ATS :(

GOW was ok and I may land the accas ... but ouch! One of those weeks where you seem to end up a score the wrong side of the spreads.

I should've known when I backed Hou IR for a lump and then they blew it. I was so confident I didn't Lay it back.

My head hurts.
By:
orioles
When: 15 Nov 09 11:02
Uncle Os Game of the Week

Denver @ Washington


The Redskins just cant get it done on offense. Campbell is banged up and shouldnt expect any protection from a porous O line that has given up 28 sacks of its QB so far and is so thin that it now has Levi Jones at LT. The Broncos Elvis Dumervil and his hound dogs look like having a good day and the Denver D has 26 sacks on the season, so it could be a horror story for Campbell who also has a bad ankle and bruised chest. Hes a hit away from leaving.

As Washington will have trouble throwing the ball, theyll look to the ground, but Portis is missing. Betts is likely to be the featured back therefore, but the Washington Post is reporting he is also injured and that Cartwright and Ganther will, at the very least, see reps. The Redskins have not scored more than 17 points in a game this year and they dont look like changing that trend in this matchup.

Turner tore the Washington D apart on the ground last week, but it has to be admitted that Buckhalter and Moreno arent quite as fearsome. Still, theyll see lots of touches, if for no other reason than Orton has an arm like wet spaghetti and cant get the rock downfield quickly and those of you that can trade this game in-running should bear that in mind; if Denver get behind, they will struggle to come back late. Both Denver backs laboured against Pittsburgh and if the Broncos dont get it going on the ground, this game will be uglier than Zeeny and Ron Nastys lovechild. It should be the case though, that sheer weight of carries will allow Denver to grind down a demoralised Washington D and there may be opportunities later on for Marshall to pick on the
By:
orioles
When: 22 Nov 09 15:31
Uncle Os Game of the Week

Seattle @ Minnesota


Im banking here on a continuing, rejuvenated Favre (I assumed he would have blown up by now) and a Seahawks defense that is struggling with injuries and doesnt effectively rush the passer. Im hoping this all adds up to a blow out, so Ill give the 10.5 points.

Even on the other side of the ball, Seattle is struggling to protect Hasselbeck. They are giving up over 3 sacks a game and although the Seahawks have recently worked on giving Matt a chance, the Minnesota defense got after Detroit last week and will be licking its lips at the prospect of this matchup.

With Lucas out and Trufant and Wilson banged up, Seattle is very short at the corners and I like the chances of both Rice and Harvin to take advantage and score. Peterson should have a massive game too, but his price is too short, so Ill take the wides for value on the TD markets.

Pick: Min -10.5***

Pick: 1st TD Sidney Rice @ 12**
Pick: Anytime TD Percy Harvin @ 2.4*
Pick: Over 46**


ATS Naps
Cin -9.5
NYG -6.5
Jax -8.5

The rest ...
Wash +11
Cle +3
SF +6.5
Pit -10.5
NO -10.5
Ind -1
StL +9.5
NE -10.5
SD -6.5
Chi +3
Ten +4.5

Acca
NYG
SD
Phi @ 3.3

Value Acca
Cle
SF
Ten @ 25+

[b]
By:
orioles
When: 29 Nov 09 14:58
Uncle Os Game of the Week

Carolina @ NY Jets


Smash mouth. All day. Neither team trusts its QB (I invested in one the other day and got murdered) and even if the Panthers could get it to Smith, Darrelle Revis is likely to be joined to him at the hip. Sanchez completed just 8 passes last week, so lets trust that the Jets receiving corps is hardly going to be looking for the oxygen at halftime. Both of these teams limit the receivers well, so carnival time, it aint.

So thisll come down to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart vs Thomas Jones and how well the respective defenses handle the run. New York has given up 219 rush yards and 3 TDs to opposing RBs in its last two games and crucially is missing Kris Jenkins at nose tackle.

The Panthers run D is even worse off, with injures decimating the line. Kemoeatu went before the off and now theyve lost Thomas Davis and Landon Johnson too; the front seven is looking very threadbare and last week, even though Miami was reduced to the single option on the ground when Brown went down, Williams still gashed the Carolina defense. Peppers was only used on passing downs last week and theres beginning to be a feeling of
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