North American
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As we all know the general public no nothing about gambling.
The 'Vegas Pro' rule is that anytime 70% or more of the money is going with one side, you should look at the other team with a view to betting them.
The last four weeks has seen this theory go 11:3 ATS
Very very early I know but only one side touching the mark so far:
San Diego 70.6%
The 'Vegas Pro' rule is that anytime 70% or more of the money is going with one side, you should look at the other team with a view to betting them.
The last four weeks has seen this theory go 11:3 ATS
Very very early I know but only one side touching the mark so far:
San Diego 70.6%
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Replies: 16
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JK , Is this for line betting or head to head in terms of laying ?
Cheers Aussie |
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JK , Is this for line betting or head to head in terms of laying ?
Cheers Aussie |
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this is going against the team that is heavily favoured on the spread
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Cheers
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Arizona 73.4%
San Diego 71.1% |
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JimmyK 07 Dec 06:31
this is going against the team that is heavily favoured on the spread San Diego are the dog this week Jimmy. |
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They are still attracting 70% of ATS picks though which means that the Cowboys less the points are the shroooood choice for this match!
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Just got:
Green Bay 73.1% |
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when is your weekly cut off Jimmy?
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its a brave man who goes against this given the 11-3 ATS in the last four weeks!
Green Bay 70.1% Not good news for Packer fans this! |
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just done it redrich, i should make a certain time per week really. not sure how they change much day to day, by the way, trialling this myself on the NBA and so far am 4-2 ATS on plus 70% and 2-1 ATS on plus 65%.
If this theory carries over to MLB as well..........maybe just maybe......we have found the GOLDEN GOOSE |
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bad week, 11-4 now ATS over 5 weeks
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I would say Saturday night is the best time for the cut-off
Presumably the better punters will wait for late team news/weather before making their picks so best to get the selection when it's mostly the mugs who have done the picking I do all my betting on the Wednesday cos I'm too excited to wait for Sunday! |
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^good point
Sat night it is then :-) |
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Did a bit of work on the NBA season today in the ATS market
In all cases I have assumed that odds of 10/11 are the best available To date there has been 106 matches where the favourite had been picked to beat the spread by 65% of punters Backing the dog in these cases would have yielded a LOSS of 4.77pts. Of those 106 matches, in 56 of them the favourite had been picked to beat the spread by 70% of punters Backing the dog in these cases would have yielded a LOSS of 8.25pts. Obviously where you selected the dog in cases of 65% but 70% you would have shown a PROFIT of 3.48pts from 50 bets but there's no real logic to this in the context we are working in. As a small (but fairly useless unless you have the patience of Job)aside, in 3 cases the dog was favoured by 70% to beat the spread, and they did each time |
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in 3 cases the dog was favoured by 70% to beat the spread, and they did each time
Bingo! |