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As we all know the general public no nothing about gambling.
The 'Vegas Pro' rule is that anytime 70% or more of the money is going with one side, you should look at the other team with a view to betting them.
The last four weeks has seen this theory go 11:3 ATS
Very very early I know but only one side touching the mark so far:
San Diego 70.6%
The 'Vegas Pro' rule is that anytime 70% or more of the money is going with one side, you should look at the other team with a view to betting them.
The last four weeks has seen this theory go 11:3 ATS
Very very early I know but only one side touching the mark so far:
San Diego 70.6%
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JK , Is this for line betting or head to head in terms of laying ?
Cheers Aussie
Cheers Aussie
JK , Is this for line betting or head to head in terms of laying ?
Cheers Aussie
Cheers Aussie
this is going against the team that is heavily favoured on the spread
JimmyK 07 Dec 06:31
this is going against the team that is heavily favoured on the spread
San Diego are the dog this week Jimmy.
this is going against the team that is heavily favoured on the spread
San Diego are the dog this week Jimmy.
They are still attracting 70% of ATS picks though which means that the Cowboys less the points are the shroooood choice for this match!
its a brave man who goes against this given the 11-3 ATS in the last four weeks!
Green Bay 70.1%
Not good news for Packer fans this!
Green Bay 70.1%
Not good news for Packer fans this!
just done it redrich, i should make a certain time per week really. not sure how they change much day to day, by the way, trialling this myself on the NBA and so far am 4-2 ATS on plus 70% and 2-1 ATS on plus 65%.
If this theory carries over to MLB as well..........maybe just maybe......we have found the GOLDEN GOOSE
If this theory carries over to MLB as well..........maybe just maybe......we have found the GOLDEN GOOSE
I would say Saturday night is the best time for the cut-off
Presumably the better punters will wait for late team news/weather before making their picks so best to get the selection when it's mostly the mugs who have done the picking
I do all my betting on the Wednesday cos I'm too excited to wait for Sunday!
Presumably the better punters will wait for late team news/weather before making their picks so best to get the selection when it's mostly the mugs who have done the picking
I do all my betting on the Wednesday cos I'm too excited to wait for Sunday!
Did a bit of work on the NBA season today in the ATS market
In all cases I have assumed that odds of 10/11 are the best available
To date there has been 106 matches where the favourite had been picked to beat the spread by 65% of punters
Backing the dog in these cases would have yielded a LOSS of 4.77pts.
Of those 106 matches, in 56 of them the favourite had been picked to beat the spread by 70% of punters
Backing the dog in these cases would have yielded a LOSS of 8.25pts.
Obviously where you selected the dog in cases of 65% but 70% you would have shown a PROFIT of 3.48pts from 50 bets but there's no real logic to this in the context we are working in.
As a small (but fairly useless unless you have the patience of Job)aside, in 3 cases the dog was favoured by 70% to beat the spread, and they did each time
In all cases I have assumed that odds of 10/11 are the best available
To date there has been 106 matches where the favourite had been picked to beat the spread by 65% of punters
Backing the dog in these cases would have yielded a LOSS of 4.77pts.
Of those 106 matches, in 56 of them the favourite had been picked to beat the spread by 70% of punters
Backing the dog in these cases would have yielded a LOSS of 8.25pts.
Obviously where you selected the dog in cases of 65% but 70% you would have shown a PROFIT of 3.48pts from 50 bets but there's no real logic to this in the context we are working in.
As a small (but fairly useless unless you have the patience of Job)aside, in 3 cases the dog was favoured by 70% to beat the spread, and they did each time
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