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JimmyK
23 Nov 09 13:59
Joined:
Date Joined: 26 Dec 02
| Topic/replies: 590 | Blogger: JimmyK's blog
As we all know the general public no nothing about gambling.

The 'Vegas Pro' rule is that anytime 70% or more of the money is going with one side, you should look at the other team with a view to betting them.


Interestingly, so far there is just one for this upcoming Thanksgiving Weekend fixture fest!

Miami 73.9%
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Report JimmyK November 24, 2009 2:56 PM GMT
still only Miami on 73.8% but Minnesota ticking up towards that magic 70%.
Report JimmyK November 24, 2009 2:56 PM GMT
6-3 for last two weeks ATS using this formula
Report shogun November 24, 2009 3:31 PM GMT
Some bizarre lines in the games guys.
Here are the current lines.


Patriots +3 @ New Orleans
Packers -10.5 @ Detroit
Raiders +13.5 @ Dallas
Giants -6.5 @ Denver
Miami -3 @ Buffalo
Colts -3.5 @ Houston
Cleveland +14 @ Cincinatti
Carolina +3 @ Jets
Tampa +12 @ Atlanta
Washington +9 @ Philadelphia
Seattle -3 @ St. Louis
Kansas City +13.5 @ San Diego
Jacksonville +3 @ San Francisco
Chicago +10.5 @ Minnesota
Arizona @ Tennesse Not available yet
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore Not available yet
Report Ace High November 24, 2009 3:38 PM GMT
Why bizzare?
Report CJ November 24, 2009 4:09 PM GMT
Detroit look big at home to my beloved GB. Two big injuries last week for the Pack and Det had a moral boosting win.
Report shogun November 24, 2009 4:23 PM GMT
Why bizarre?
I'll tell ye wh7y its bizarre..
1. Miami -3 in Buffalo. Miami are playing much better the last month than at the start of the season. A settled offense and tough as teak defence. Playing a suspect team that have just lost their coach and may indeed have lost their starting QB to injury! I have the spread in my book at -9!

2. Colts going to Houston giving them 3.5 pts. Houston were just beaten by a resurgent Titan team that Vince Young managed to pick apart when Houston decided to stop the rush. Peyton Manning led Colts will tear them a new one!! Houston are usually a prospect against anybody at home but this Colt team are uber confident at the moment and saying that just one field goal seperates them is just plain madness!

3. Kansas going to Qualcom with 13.5 pts in the pocket! Kansas have been getting beat this year by quality teams and the Chargers walloped them by 30 but since then they have bye, jaguars -3, Raiders by 6 and Steelers in OT. Momentum in my book and they will be right up for a go at San Diego again.

4. Jaguars going to Candlestick with 3 points in hand! Jaguars are 3 wins out of 3 against Chiefs, Jets(away) and Bills. The 49 ers on the other hand are one win out of five since the bye week and that was one of the worst games shown on TV in ages against the Bears! I think the Jags beat them straight and with 3 points in hand it just compounds the value!
Report shogun November 24, 2009 4:24 PM GMT
Why bizarre?
I'll tell ye wh7y its bizarre..
1. Miami -3 in Buffalo. Miami are playing much better the last month than at the start of the season. A settled offense and tough as teak defence. Playing a suspect team that have just lost their coach and may indeed have lost their starting QB to injury! I have the spread in my book at -9!

2. Colts going to Houston giving them 3.5 pts. Houston were just beaten by a resurgent Titan team that Vince Young managed to pick apart when Houston decided to stop the rush. Peyton Manning led Colts will tear them a new one!! Houston are usually a prospect against anybody at home but this Colt team are uber confident at the moment and saying that just one field goal seperates them is just plain madness!

3. Kansas going to Qualcom with 13.5 pts in the pocket! Kansas have been getting beat this year by quality teams and the Chargers walloped them by 30 but since then they have bye, jaguars -3, Raiders by 6 and Steelers in OT. Momentum in my book and they will be right up for a go at San Diego again.

4. Jaguars going to Candlestick with 3 points in hand! Jaguars are 3 wins out of 3 against Chiefs, Jets(away) and Bills. The 49 ers on the other hand are one win out of five since the bye week and that was one of the worst games shown on TV in ages against the Bears! I think the Jags beat them straight and with 3 points in hand it just compounds the value!
Report Jollop November 24, 2009 4:51 PM GMT
Didnt Indianapolis beat Houston by 3 two weeks ago in Indianapolis?? The Texans missed a FG attempt that would have taken it to OT.

In fact the Colts last four wins have been by a combined 10pts
Report JimmyK November 24, 2009 5:01 PM GMT
CJ

I agree about the Lions looking big but they will probably be without both Stafford and Johnson.

If they both dont play can the Lions get to double digits?
Report Gazzy November 24, 2009 9:22 PM GMT
Any news on Orton's status in Denver?

I know they are in free fall but the Giants are not a great team. Had Orton started against SD that game would've been mighty different
Report cunnybobbler November 24, 2009 9:52 PM GMT
kansas city are gash. they fluked the win against the steelers, should of got completely hammered out of site. i dont think 13.5 is particularly unusual
Report cunnybobbler November 24, 2009 9:52 PM GMT
*sight! i keep doing that ffs :(
Report orioles November 24, 2009 11:07 PM GMT
Your know different to the rest of us on hear, Cunny.

Relax, man ;)
Report Lifetaker November 25, 2009 2:42 AM GMT
I like ,
Miami -3 @ Buffalo
Carolina +3 @ Jets
Kansas City +13.5 @ San Diego
Report THE OLD WIFFER OF WIFFING November 25, 2009 7:21 AM GMT
Gazzy 24 Nov 22:22
Any news on Orton's status in Denver?

I know they are in free fall but the Giants are not a great team. Had Orton started against SD that game would've been mighty different

horse sh1t
Report Gazzy November 25, 2009 9:18 AM GMT
Well, he led them to the red zone twice early on, when they subsequently turned the ball over.

I gave up watching at that point, but the game was over before Orton came in and I don't believe SD would've sent those blitzs at Orton if he'd been there. Maybe Denver wouldn't have won, but the scoreline would not have been what it was.

Still think the G-Men are a stupid price
Report HARRY22 November 25, 2009 9:55 AM GMT
patriots and giants for me so far...
Report HARRY22 November 25, 2009 9:56 AM GMT
add the colts to that list
Report JimmyK November 25, 2009 10:34 AM GMT
I think McDaniels should be smart and bench Orton this week. They have three very very winnable games to come. One bad knock Thursday could put him out for the season, after Thursday they will have 10 days rest.
Report JimmyK November 25, 2009 10:35 AM GMT
Indy now up to 68.5%
Report db1974 November 25, 2009 12:43 PM GMT
Gazzy 25 Nov 10:18
Well, he led them to the red zone twice early on, when they subsequently turned the ball over.


Have to correct you here - only one of those turnovers was when Orton was the QB and you couldn't blame him for that turnover. In fact he was very impressive when he came on for Simms and if that TD was scored, I think the game would have ended up much tighter than we saw in the 2nd half, not least because McDaniels wouldn't have gone for an onside kick without telling the rest of the team!
Report Gazzy November 25, 2009 12:45 PM GMT
Ah my mistake.

I was still filled with rage from the Bal game at that point.
Report Saluting Darren Lockyer November 25, 2009 5:42 PM GMT
giants on the drift,i can't see why they're an evens shot at -6.5 on the road to a denver team that's in dissaray,yeah they've a busted secondary but i don't see a half fit orton doing much about it anyway.
Report Lifetaker November 25, 2009 11:23 PM GMT
OK. here Go's , Bold statment comming up ,

The GAME , .....the Thankgiving Game that they pray for the WIN
denver BRONCO"S v new york GIANT"S
Wont just be a WIN ! But the difference between Winning and Surrendering their Division.Going to the Play-off's or Not , NFC East v AFC West.

It's a Bounus for the Bronco's to be @ home , but will it be enough ?
Nice Odd's on Veriouse market's ,
Report Lifetaker November 25, 2009 11:34 PM GMT
Oh yes , RAIDER"S to make a Joke out of the Cowboy's .....Please ,
Report JimmyK November 26, 2009 12:12 PM GMT
Miami 75.4%


No other side even above 65%
Report JimmyK November 27, 2009 3:38 PM GMT
holding strong Miami at 74.7%
Report JimmyK November 29, 2009 11:32 AM GMT
only pick this week then

Miami 73.5%

6-3 ats

pick is to go against the Dolphins.
Report JimmyK November 29, 2009 6:27 PM GMT
7 apiece up in buffalo
Report JimmyK November 29, 2009 7:58 PM GMT
surely not 7:3 ATS
Report d13phe November 29, 2009 7:59 PM GMT
nice shout
Report good value losers November 29, 2009 8:07 PM GMT
spooky
Report TwoTonTed November 29, 2009 8:33 PM GMT
top bombing Jimmy, I was with you on this one, great win for the Fav Opponants - cheers :) :D
Report healingmylegalhealingmyheart November 29, 2009 8:34 PM GMT
ANNNTTTOOOONNIOOOOOOOOO GATTTTTEEEEEEEESSSSSSSS
Report JimmyK November 30, 2009 10:24 AM GMT
no worries everyone, it has been very rewarding the last 3 weeks but with only one selection last week it appears the market makers are ensuring the lines are more competitve than they were early in the season. we shall see where we go this week..............
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