Consenus Picks Week 11

following on from last weeks 3-1 effort adopting this theory.

all five remaining strong with Detroit still on 74%.

maybe a play against all five may reap three winners on a scattergun approach!

is this su or ats?

Jimmy, my software is saying that all of those favourites can be opposed, bar Detroit.

None of the bets are sufficiently strong to trigger an automatic bet (although Kansas is pretty close) but still, it might be worth a more careful look.

It all depends on who the NFL and the Zebras want to win surely.

Have to factor all that in now :(

good value, its ats

can we really trust detroit tho????

not sure i get it.

so 76.2% of the money is going on detroit...does that mean 76.2% of the money that is being bet on that game?

one thing that spring to mind is that the total amount of money being bet on that game probably isnt very much. also id of thought bets are heavily influenced by the number of fans watching a particular team. probably most of the people backing detroit are detroit fans. who else will even bother watching it?

How does a pickem (Ind@Bal) end up with 70%+ of the money on one team?

The line must've got absolutely hammered

cunny

this is the wagerline consensus, as some have previously stated this figure may not be entirely accurate as some people just blindly select the favourite.

Pittsburgh 78.65%
Philly 75.7%
Cincy 74.5%
Indy 73.9%
Detroit 72.7%

Pittsburgh 78.65%
Philly 75.7%
Cincy 74.5%
Indy 73.9%
Detroit 72.7%

Uncle O Puter %ge Win (SU)
Pit 79.2
Phil 51.2
Cin 72.7
Ind 51.9
Det 72.2

Accuscore
Pit 84.6
Phil 57.2
Cin 75.7
Ind 60
Det 49.2

FFL
Pit 68.4
Phil 58.3
Cin 78.8
Ind 41.7
Det 64.4

Make of that what you will (we may be refining a foolproof system here!)

It's a slow morning :p

Pittsburgh 78.65%
Philly 75.7%
Cincy 74.5%
Indy 73.9%
Detroit 72.7%

Aggregates
Pit 77.22
Phil 55.57
Cin 75.73
Ind 51.2
Det 61.93

Difference +/-
Pit -1.43
Phil -20.13
Cin +1.23
Ind -22.7
Det -10.77

So, the bets would be:

1. Bal +1
2. Chi +3
3. Cle +3.5
4. KC +10
5. Oak +9.5

so these are doing very nicely at the moment!

can u explain further how you arrived to these selections tho??

Howd u work out the aggregate and %win Accuscore FFL??

thanks :)

This is all Jimmy's work.

The consensus picks are taken from Covers (I think), the other probabilities are taken from my own software and a site called Footy Forecaster. I took the aggregate of the latter two, compared them to the consensus percentages and ranked the picks accordingly.

It was a bit of fun really, but the principle of opposing the public is always an interesting one in gambling.

3/2 and my initial thoughts look great calls now with both Cincy and Pits losing outright.

find ats very hard :( i'll stick to su i think. 12/14 favs won yesterday. 1pt level steak showed approx 2.66pt profit)

6/3 ats using this system over the last two weeks. it is not pure science but just gives a general idea.