Do you keep NFL stats to work out value bets?

the main one i look at (and helped me to win last nights bet) is how effective a team are running the ball to the other team stopping the run.

IMO if a team can run the ball well they control the clock, churn up yardage keep the other teams defence on the field and inevitably take the lead.

the only time this seems to blow up in my face is when the unpredictable happens such as a team who for all season have been rubbish at stopping the run suddenly hold a team to about 40 yards the entire game.

ok that makes sense. Good start - thanks!

Do you actually do a calcutation for this ('net rushing yards per play' for example) or is it a case of just looking at the figures for you?

Yes.

Heads or tails.

www.footballoutsiders.com give valuable stats, but take the time to understand when they're worth using and when they're cack.

Oh, and a shameful plug for myself, but the articles I'm linking to are free so I hope it's not too spammy:

http://www.priceform.com/writers/41_lori.html (Scroll down to the handicapping the NFL articles, you may or may not find them of use.)

Lori writing articles on NFL capping?

Stop the world, I want to get off ;)

Reddy,

I used to keep run yards gained and allowed, pass yards gained and allowed, sacks achieved and allowed, first downs both ways (you get the picture), fumbles and interceptions and special team points.

As the first respondent said calculated estimate if rushing yards in an upcoming game had a far far greater correlation factor to victory than pass yards. The biggest correlation by far however was turnover differential but the problem was turnover differential in the past wasn't as good an indicator of turnover differential in the future as the yardage stars. Special team points the same as turnover differential but the next step down the ladder in importance.

So in the end I gave if up and concentrated on two stats. Wins and losses.

If you have time though keeping everything is great. If nothing else it makes you understand and appreciate the game more.

Cutler on thursday - 29 of 52 for 307 yards with no sacks and 5 interceptions. You should realize how truely terrible a performance that is.

if rushing yards in an upcoming game had a far far greater correlation factor to victory than pass yards.

Be very careful about cause and effect. Teams often run because they're winning not winning because they run.

http://www.milehighreport.com/2009/6/19/899228/tales-of-mythology-part-1-the

Quite a nice article on that, it's a constant feature of the FOA (previous Football Prospectus) too.

cheers for the replies so far(except orioles!)

It's interesting to hear other people's approach to this.

So many of the stats available are inextricably linked with each other.

My initial feeling was to look at possession time stats as a jumping off point and then look at how effective teams are with and without possession. But it's not that bloody simple is it! :^0

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2007/tdz-bended-knee

A sarcastic lesson but a good one.


http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/establishment-clause

Some better analysis

Hey, you asked how I do it! :)

:^0 o

Is that why you were consistantly bottom of the taikai challenges last year O?

:-)

thanks for all that lori - will read 'em all

They were fixed :p

I suspect Zeeny. He's never forgiven me for the 'incident'.

The run...lol...this isnt the 1970s boys.

Theres lies,damned lies and statistics.

stats are useful but read the match reports, watch highlights

find out why teams have lost.

also, the previous weeks results in the NFL are almost always reflected in the next weeks prices, rightly or wrongly.

agree with d13phe...with such a fine line between winning and losing the stats can be misleading...especially offensive and defensive rankings..pass yards etc etc