North-East Trends Fan

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -120.00pts ROI: +00.00%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

It's the final California-based event of the season this week as the PGA Tour heads to the classic Riviera Country Club for the Northern Trust Open.

I'm focusing on accuracy off the tee and solid iron play as the players attempt to negotiate this tight and testing track which abounds with testing rough.

Given the absence of the likes of Woods, Scott, Mickelson, Stenson and Garcia, I'm struggling to find much value among those at the head of the market and instead I'm opting for a multitude of decent ball strikers at more attractive prices.

Of those at shorter prices though I'd expect to see the likes of Dustin Johnson (@14), Webb Simpson (@23), Jimmy Walker (@24) and Keegan Bradley (@32) challenging come Sunday evening.


Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):
Lee WESTWOOD 2.25pts @ 85
- His solid ball striking should suit this tight and testing layout
- T21 here last year

Cameron TRINGALE 1.5pts @ 140
- California resident who has finished T24 or better here for the last three seasons
- T13 last week and T12 in Phoenix the week before that

Martin LAIRD 1.25pts @ 230
- The Scot is solid from tee to green and T25 here in 2010
- Multiple winner on PGA Tour and has four Top 25s since the turn of the year

John MERRICK 1pt @ 190
- Defending champion here who is 6th in Driving Accuracy this year on Tour and 34th in GIR

Brendon de JONGE 1pt @ 170
- Another solid ball striker who finished T29 here in 2010

Trevor IMMELMAN 1pt @ 250
- Two-time winner on tour (including the Masters) who T29 here in 2010 and was T10 in the Farmers three weeks ago

Kevin STREELMAN 1pt @ 170
- 3rd in Driving Accuracy this year and he T27 in this last year
- Posted his maiden Tour win last season

Spencer LEVIN 0.5pts @ 390
- California resident who has shown signs of a return to form this season following injury and personal tragedy in 2013
- Solid ball striker and an almost certain future winner on Tour

Ben CURTIS 0.5pts @ 980
- A simply huge price for a multiple winner on Tour who has shown he can win from nowhere when seemingly out of form

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -110.00pts ROI: +00.00%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

Second again last week! For the third time in four weeks my top pick finished runner-up as Graham DeLaet (@38) ended the Phoenix Open just one shot behind first time PGA Tour winner Kevin Stadler.

Back to California this week and its the AT&T Pro-Am, played over three different courses with only the host course, Pebble Beach, visited twice.

Looking for good putters, preferably in form, with course form too who can go low:

Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):
Patrick REED 3.5pts @ 44
- Won twice on tour in recent weeks
- T7 here last season. Good putter who makes a stack of birdies

Sean O'HAIR 1pt @ 310
- Classy type who can win from nowhere
- T16 here last year and T29 the year before

James DRISCOLL 1pt @ 160
- Excellent putter who was T9 here last year and T13 in 2011

Aaron BADDELEY 1pt @ 120
- Top 12 finishes here for  the last three season
- Another excellent putter and a five-time winner on tour

Sang-Moon BAE 1pt @ 210
- Tour winner who was 30th in Strokes Gained Putting and 11th in Birdie Average in 2013
- 8th in Strokes Gained Putting this season

Bryce MOLDER 1pt @ 100
- T12 here last year and T6 in 2011
- Good putter and the shorter courses this week should suit him

Robert GARRIGUS 1pt @ 120
- This long hitter finished T22 last year and T20 in 2012
- 29th in Birdie Average in 2013

Greg CHALMERS 0.5pts @ 240
- Superb putter in decent form this season

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -100.00pts ROI: +00.00%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

A tie for 10th (Seung-Yul Noh @ 270 ) was the best I could do last week in a gripping renewal of the Farmers at Torrey Pines, won by Scott Stallings.

Huge, boisterous crowds are in store this week at the desert course of TPC Scottsdale as the Tour moves to Arizona for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Birdies galore and low scores will once again be the order of the day and I'm focusing on solid drivers with a proven liking for the easier courses.


Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):
Graham DeLaet 3.25pts @ 38
- This long-hitting Canadian is in splendid form this season and is surely a winner waiting to happen
- 1st in Total Driving (a combination of length and accuracy) on tour in 2013 and 16th in Birdie Average
- T2 in California last week

Bill HAAS 3pts @ 38
- Great driver of the ball and a five-time winner already on the PGA Tour
- T6 here last year and Top 30 finishes the previous two years as well

Brendan STEELE 1.25pts @ 90
- Long hitter who has won on Tour
- T6 here last year and T5 the year before that

Ben CRANE 1pt @ 100
- Four-time winner on tour and a superb putter who is at his best when the scoring is low
- 2nd here in 2012 and T11 last season

Russell HENLEY 0.5pts @ 440
- 21st on Tour in Total Driving in 2013 and 33rd in Birdie Average
- Gained his first PGA Tour win at the Sony Open in 2013

Jonathan BYRD 0.5pts @ 490
- Five-time winner on Tour who is generally a good driver of the ball
- All of his wins have come in very low scoring events

John ROLLINS 0.5pts @ 430
- Another solid driver of the ball and a three-time winner on the PGA Tour
- T24 here last year and T8 in 2012

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -90.00pts ROI: +00.00%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)


Yet more promising signs for the upcoming tournaments in the Humana Challenge last week as, for the second week in a row, my top pick (this time Ryan Palmer @ 42) finished in a close 2nd place.

On to the famous Torrey Pines in California this week for what promises to be a cracking event boasting a high-class field, headed most notably by seven-time tournament winner Tiger Woods making his seasonal debut.

The tournament is staged on both the North and South courses here but I'm mainly looking for classy long hitters armed with the right credentials to tackle the South course. It is the longest course played on Tour this year and one which any eventual winner will have to play well three times this week (whereas each player will only face the shorter North course once).

Of those at the head of the market, Tiger Woods (@ 3.55) is the most likely winner given his outstanding previous results here and return to form last season. I can also Jason Day (@ 34) and previous winner Bubba Watson (@ 36) going well but below are my value tips for this week. Good luck one and all:

Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):
Hunter MAHAN 3pts @ 42
- Top 15 finishes here in each of the last three seasons
- Long off the tee with a superb all round game and a classy, proven, multiple winner on Tour

Keegan BRADLEY 3pts @ 38
- Top 25 finishes here in 2011 & 2012
- First in Par 5 performance on tour last season and 11th in Driving Distance
- Consistent and already a multiple winner on tour who put in a promising display in the Humana Challenge last week

Jimmy WALKER 2.5pts @ 42
- I don't normally like to back players next time out after a win but I just can't ignore Walker's strengths or his previous record here
- T4 here last season and T8 the year before that
- 20th in Driving Distance on tour last season and 40th in Par 5 performance and putting superbly recently
- In outstanding form, with two wins in his last six events on the PGA Tour

I do see the winner coming from those closer to the head of the market this week but I also fancy three at more fancy prices who could go well:

Brendan STEELE 0.5pts @ 510
- T27 here last season and T17 in 2011
- California resident who is long off the tee and has won on tour and put in a solid run towards the end of last season

Geoff OGILVY 0.5pts @ 580
- Classy, multiple PGA tour winner and it wouldn't be stretching the imagination too far to see him return to form and compete this week
- Long hitter who can get very hot with the putter too

Seung-Yul NOH 0.5pts @ 270
- Young South Korean of tremendous potential who hits it a mile off the tee
- T27 here in each of the last two seasons
- Mainly his putting which has let him down recently but he can compete here given a better week with the flat stick

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -80.00pts ROI: +00.00%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

Desperately unlucky last week as Chris Kirk could only finish second after going in to the final round in the lead, ultimately finishing one shot behind winner Jimmy Walker (who typically had been my headline tip just the week before).

It's the Human Challenge in California this week where going very low on some relatively easy courses is very much the order of the day.

Selections (all prices from Betfair unless stated):
Ryan PALMER 2.5pts @ 42
- Three time winner on tour who finished T6 here last year and 4th in 2011
- T8 in the Sony Open in Hawaii last week
- 6th in Birdie Average on tour in 2013 and 38th in Strokes Gained Putting and a long hitter who should create plenty of chances

Billy HORSCHEL 3pts @ 36
- Extremely consistent last season and opened his PGA account with a win in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans
- T10 here last season
- 8th in Birdie Average on tour in 2013 and 28th in Strokes Gained Putting

Bryce MOLDER 2pts @ 130
- At his best when the birdies are flying and a previous winner on tour in a low scoring event
- T16 here last season
- 10th in Strokes Gained Putting on tour in 2013 and 33rd in Birdie Average

Rory SABBATINI 1.5pts @ 110
- Streaky sort who can go very low and win when seemingly out of form
- Six time winner on the PGA Tour
- T14 here in 2012
- 3rd in Birdie Average on tour in 2013

James HAHN 0.5pts @ 225/1 (Bet365)
- T4 in this event last season with a four round score of -24

James DRISCOLL 0.5pts @ 260
- 7th in Strokes Gained Putting on tour in 2013 and 40th in Birdie Average
- T26 here in 2012

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -70.00pts ROI: +00.00%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

On to Waialae CC in Honolulu for the second Hawaii based tournament of the new year.

Looking for accuracy off the tee, a hot putter and the ability to go low.

Selections (all prices from Betfair):
Chris KIRK 3pts @ 36
- Won twice on tour now (including the McGladrey Classic in November) and can go very low
- T5 here last year
- 16th in Strokes Gained Putting on tour this season

Brian GAY 2pts @ 48
- Multiple winner on PGA tour
- T6 here in 2012 and T13 in 2011
- 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting on tour this season

Boo WEEKLEY 1.5pts @ 80
- 1st in Driving Accuracy on tour this season
- Also 4th in GIR and 28th in Strokes Gained Putting
- Proven winner on PGA tour

Michael THOMPSON 1.25pts @ 110
- T6 here in 2012
- 4th in Driving Accuracy on tour this season and 20th in Strokes Gained Putting

Brian STUARD 1.25pts @ 85
- T5 here last year
- 2nd in the Mayakoba in Mexico on his last start
- 25th in GIR on tour this season

Justin HICKS 0.5pts @ 180
- 3rd in Driving Accuracy this season and 2nd in GIR
- T6 last time out in the Mayakoba

Briny BAIRD 0.5pts @ 380
- Course should suit his accurate game
- 2nd in the McGladrey Classic earlier this season

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -56.00pts ROI: +00.00%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

Selections (all prices from Betfair):
Jimmy WALKER 5.5pts @ 30
Gary WOODLAND 4.5pts @ 34

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -50.00pts ROI: +00.00%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)

Very close last week with Brian Gay (@ 280) just not quite getting home.

Off to Mexico this week for the OHL Classic and the final full tournament of 2013 on the PGA Tour.


Selections (all prices from Betfair):
Ben CURTIS 1.5pts @ 180
Kevin STADLER 2.5pts @ 48
Mark WILSON 2.5pts @ 75
Johnson WAGNER 1 pt @ 180
Justin LEONARD 1pt @ 300
Tim PETROVIC 0.5pts @ 360
Jerry KELLY 1pt @ 140

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -40.00pts ROI: +00.00%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)




Selections (all prices from Betfair):
Sean O'HAIR 3pts @ 65
James DRISCOLL 2pts @ 190
David TOMS 2pts @ 55
Aaron BADDELEY 1.5pts @ 100
Brian GAY 1pt @ 280
Heath SLOCUM 0.5pts @ 210

SEASON 2013-14 P/L: -40.00pts ROI: +00.00%
(SEASON 2013 FINAL P/L: +85.23pts ROI: +20.79%)




Selections (all prices from Betfair):
Sean O'HAIR 3pts @ 65
James DRISCOLL 2pts @ 190
David TOMS 2pts @ 55
Aaron BADDELEY 1.5pts @ 100
Brian GAY 1pt @ 280
Heath SLOCUM 0.5pts @ 210