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roadrunner46
23 Sep 18 00:57
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Date Joined: 25 Apr 11
| Topic/replies: 7,659 | Blogger: roadrunner46's blog
i would like to share and write down some of the things ive learned this year, as you know not good practice to give away too much information.
so let me start by saying that every race and selection you pick, will more often than not be vital clues going forward, as far as your
knowledge of the form and horses (names), this is why my preferred method is to pick quality over one hit wonders in low grade racing, low grade stuff is ok from time to time, whole point of a season is to build up a knowledge of the horses and the form patterns. you can only achieve this through betting on races that are going to be useful in supplying good form lines for future races.

so notebooking all selections for future email alerts is sensible, unlesss you bet on a lot of crap, then it would just be useless,
reason being its good to remind and refresh your brain matter , that they could be possible bets when they run.

also find an awareness of pedigrees is essential, if you dont know where to start , i suggest first season sires every year,
there are new and exciting stallions to follow every new racing year. and it helps the monotony of just doing form study
all the time, which can be too time consuming.

betting is all about your own evolution of learning, what works for some people and is the perceived conventional wisdom,
is not always useful to everyone, conventional wisdom by its very nature is already outdated in many instances.

these are just my thoughts and thinking on horse racing
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Report peckerdunne September 23, 2018 2:11 PM BST
Fair play for posting honestly.
Report roadrunner46 September 24, 2018 10:46 AM BST
the first season sire stallions every year is where you can gain a massive advantage over recreational
punters, im no expert in this area as im just starting to learn this sector of racing myself.its not
about trying to find the winner of the FSS championship every year, as you know is calculated on prize money
and for betting purposes on the amount of winners, precocious type stallions will always be the most sought
after, personally i dont mind the more late developing types myself, as long they have a group 1 race track
record, for me sprinters are my favourites.

so a typical 5 year studying plan would look something like this.

year 1

3 new stallions 2019 = 3 crops

year 2

3 new stallions 2020 = 3 crops + additional 3 crops from year 1 + year 1's 2nd crop = 9 crops

year 3

3 new stallions 2021 = 3 crops + additional 15 crops from year 1 and 2 = 18 crops

year 4

3 new stallions 2022 = 3 crops + additional 27 crops from year 1 and 2 and 3 = 30 crops

year 5

3 new stallions 2023 = 3 crops + additional 42 crops from year 1 and 2 and 3 and 4 = 45 crops

after that you will have the required knowledge and understanding of 15 stallions and you will know
all those crops better than anyone on the planet, the edge you will enjoy over most recreational
gamblers and even some of the so called professional gamblers will be devastating. as you begin
to learn and understand the natural ebb and flow of the results of the FSS, you learn additional
clues in how to decipher which ones are action bets and prime bets. also you will be upto date
on which of the other FSS are doing well, the ones you havent chosen, you will know the good
horses worth following. this is all about the horses and increasing your knowledge, and as an
additional aid to your form study. most of the horses from these crops will not be very good,
just a fact of life, doesnt mean they have no value, what might seem a crap 2yo, could be a good money spinner as a 3/4 yo.

goodluck
Report RoyalAcademy September 24, 2018 4:52 PM BST
Weatherbys list 33 FSS on their 2018 lists so selecting three rookies any year means you are most likely to pick a dose of duds.

I don't disagree with part of your logic but a more fruitful approach is pick winners and work back. I have often studied winning sires at the end of their second season, compare these results to a year earlier-good database needed, combine them with sales results and crops to come and you have an intensive, ready-made labour of love. I remember putting forward Archipenko here a few years ago and there are a few unfashionable horses already among this year's list like Gregorian, Kuroshio and Gale Force Ten that might tick a few boxes for 2020. In the meantime, my break at Christmas will be studying leading second and third season sires of 2018 to build my strategy for next year's turf flat season. Generally, if you select the less-than-stellar stallion pedigrees you will always be hunting in deep waters not frequented by many. Finally, sageform on the bloodstock forum is a man that has followed sires in a different capacity for a long time.
Report roadrunner46 September 24, 2018 5:08 PM BST
you will never get started if you are worried about picking duds, its not difficult to use your intelligence
and form an opinion on which stallions might be worth following. i selected SLADE POWER this year,
turns out it has been the most profitable stallion to follow this season from the top 10 FSS'S and also has
had the most prolific winner PRINCESS POWER on 4 wins so far.
Report RoyalAcademy September 24, 2018 5:26 PM BST
good man, you make it a struggle
Report roadrunner46 September 24, 2018 5:41 PM BST
this season you had the champion miler kingman/ no nay never who sold extremely well and a group 1 sprinter
slade power who was a late developer on the race track, as you have mentioned a few, mukhadram had less
than 10 runners on the racetrack, when knighthayes romped home on the AW  at 170/1 BFSP, so some of these
lesser known stallions can be worthwhile to follow too.

so you just use your racing knowledge to decide which ones you might be interested in following,
you dont have to be an expert, im not interested in just the precocious type stallions, im thinking
about a few years down the line, sometimes the late developers on the race track, could turn out to be
the best to follow in the long run.
Report roadrunner46 September 25, 2018 3:24 PM BST
2018

no nay never

kingman

slade power

2019

muhaarar

golden horn

gutaifan

much better if you follow your instincts and pick your own stallions to follow, will go through kingman
and no nay never's results at the end of the year, and get an insight into whats been happening, been
a few winners in ireland for no nay never, dont follow irish racing full stop, unless its champions day
meeting. usually only interested in group 1 winning stallions, next year will make an exception for
gutaifan, because one of dark angels sons. dont try and be too clever, more detailed approach in finding
the best stallions to follow, requires a lot more effort. i will follow the ones i know from the race track.
Report roadrunner46 September 26, 2018 12:35 AM BST
2020 just two, not impressed by the names for that year

twilight son

the last lion

2021

caravaggio

aclaim

profitable


from these first 11 stallions there are 8 different stud farms and only 5 of them are based in england
with 3 more for 2022, that will make it 14 stallions in total.
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