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norn iron
13 Mar 17 09:15
Joined:
Date Joined: 18 Feb 08
| Topic/replies: 12,472 | Blogger: norn iron's blog
RIGHT LADS ILL STICK  THREAD   UP EACH DAY  SEE IF SOME  OF US CAN WIN LOADS . TWICE IVE WON  1400 / 2600£ SO IM HOPING DEJA VUE  BUT LAST 3 MONTHS  IVE HAD WORSE LUCK THAN CLAUDIO RANRIERI Shocked   SO GOOD LUCK PUNTERS  . 

MINE TO FOLLOW  TONIGHT  OFF TO WATCH FEW MY U7 CRICKETERS TRY WIN RUGBY SCHOOL FINAL
Pause Switch to Standard View CHELTENHAM TUESDAY CERTS OR DONKEYS ?
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Report pa lapsy March 13, 2017 12:30 PM GMT
Hope you are getting the weather i'm having for the cricket Norn,glorious and makes ya glad to be alive.

Different year to the last few in the sense Mullins seemed to have "good things",not so this time though a winner or two seems likely on the odds.

"Donkeys"
I'm going to plagarise two posters with these,the odds look big at 50/1 best prices on both,i think there was a fair bit of merit in what both said previously.

Labaik, Supreme
Be prepared to take your money out of your pocket and fling it on the street!!!!!!!, At 13.31 the question of why oh why did i ever do that could well be asked,a good chance of not getting to the first hurdle,still a talented horse who Gordon makes no secret of his potential.

Briery Queen, Mares
I just know Tony57 will be at least having a small ew and at 50/1 why not? She is a big hefty Mary,no one asks her to dance,though she is sound out and as honest as the day is long.
Why back her? Vroom Vroom probably has regressed  as she only just managed to beat Midnight Jazz a head,Briery Queen was a head behind Midnight Jazz and a further 3L behind Lifeboat Mona,5/2 Vroom and 50's BQ?,a huge discreapancy even if Mullins mare did't run her race. Limini looks a ridicolous price imo,i'm not sure she will confirm form with Apples Jade.
Think Briery with Richard Johnson board will run well and hoping for a place.

"Certs"
I wish i knew Norn,i think the days racing is open, i would like to think Ballyandy,Yanworth(though jumping dodgy) and Noble Endevour are at least place certs.

Hope your luck changes,enjoy the racing.
Report wildmanfromborneo March 13, 2017 2:37 PM GMT
We get a chance to combine two theories of mine in the first race tomorrow.

Labaik is an out an out mule.
He has failed to start in his last three races,he technically started in Naas last time but was a long way back,its what happened after he finally deigned to race that's important.
He appeared to me to makeup a phenomenal amount of ground.
We know he has loads of ability but the start is a huge problem.
Normally that would be that,no bet and definitely not an each way wager.

This race however is different,its the first race of the festival.
I'm fairly sure that if Labaik fails to start Paddy Power will return your stake.

For these reasons I'm backing Labaik each way,I'm also backing him in small stakes ( the refund could be for 50 quid or less ) nothing stopping you getting a pal to shove a score each way for you and so on.
Report workrider March 13, 2017 4:21 PM GMT
Like Pa one that caught my attention at a huge price  for small money was Kerrow in the 4 miler ,I really think the step up in trip will suit ,44/1 and 10/1 to place on here.
Report Rocketfingers March 13, 2017 6:09 PM GMT
I agree with Wildman here for a change, Labaik is 50/1, his behaviour at the start on previous occasions ismore than factored into the price,for the fun i was thinking of having something very small EW. I know the likely out come but happy to play the healthy odds.
Report norn iron March 13, 2017 8:04 PM GMT
BALLYANDY     SAVER EW HIGH BRIDGE     GLARING  MIGHT BE WORTH FEW£   EW   AS VERY GOOD FLAT HORSE AND WAS IMPRESSIVE FTO

AHARES BREATH EW W/O FAV 

UN   TEMPS POUR TOUT   EW  HENRY  PARRY MORGAN

YANWORTH        EW THE NEW ONE   

JERS GIRL    EW BRIERY QUEEN

A GENIE IN BOTTLE   /MARTELLO TOWER

SIZING TENNESESSE EW NAP   TULLY EAST

FEW REV4CASTS 


MY BISMARK  MELON 

GOOD LUCK PUNTERS
Report TellTheKing March 13, 2017 8:08 PM GMT
PP ran a starter insurance market on Labaik the last day. Presume the same tomorrow rather than a refund.
Report Major Rumpus March 13, 2017 8:23 PM GMT
The assistant starter with Long Tom in Uk may help to start labaik. Loads ability though whether good enough to win is a question. Maybe his best chance of starting tomorrow.
Report keen leader March 13, 2017 10:17 PM GMT
my lays for day 1
noble endeavour...lay win and place.
champers on ice..win lay and place

the price of 5/2 on ten or less irish winners at the festival is fair. I have backed, and expect a max of only 2 irish wins on tuesday, probably only 1, and that 5/2 may be down to 13/8 tomorrow night.
Report one last chance March 13, 2017 10:20 PM GMT
5/6 under 12.5 bet all year
Report by purpose March 13, 2017 10:58 PM GMT
Standing start which could happen in 1st would be much against Labaik.
Report neill d March 14, 2017 12:05 AM GMT
Here we go!

1:30, Melon, experience is important but horses can win without it and it is usually least important when you're dealing with a potentially exceptional horse. One thing they do need is raw ability and if he is the horse his trainer thinks he is, then he will win. The fact that there isn't an outstanding candidate from Elliot or Henderson is also a massive plus to his chances as they would have been produced to run their races. Ballyandy went really strongly all the way through the Betfair last time and will have had a hard race despite appearances.

2:00, Riyal Caviar ew and without, fences have transformed this horse and I could see him winning something like a Power Gold Cup having gone really well here. Not having run since Christmas is a plus as he strikes me as the type of horse that gives himself a hard time. Will be immaculately produced for the day and his hurdles form behind B'all D'Arc and Sutton Place in particular makes him a clear second best for me.

Bailey, Jefferson and Ellison horses are just the types at big meetings where you will read the next week in the paper that something wasn't right and that was why they blew out. Ellison has been pretty upbeat about his but there are levels to this sh1t and this is the one meeting of the year where you can back a Mullins 16s shot that isn't marbh!

2:50, Holywell: Don't think he has been wanted in the betting for anything yet this year and you'd get the sense this is the only day that counts. Wouldn't be too surprised to see him take this and then give the Irish National a good crack. will love the bit of better ground if he still has it. I know there is rampant SP manipulation, but he went off 11/1 for the Grand National last year and is still only ten.

3:30: Yanworth, a street fighter for what is likely to be a Bar Room Brawl of a Champion Hurdle. Quicker pace should really help his jumping. Wouldn't have been wound up at Wincanton and I like the way he dealt with The New One at Kempton on a track he wouldn't have appreciated either. They were absolutely raving about how good this guy was last season. I remember Brave Inca winning in 2006 when off the bridle a long way out and hoepfully we are in for a repeat. Think this race is every Irish person's favourite horse race of the year, always delivers.

4:10: Vroum Vroum Mag: I'm reading a lot about Apples Jade being the e/w angle here and I can certainly see why but I have never liked her and have a woeful feeling she is going to be brutally outpaced here by the Mullins pair and wouldn't be surprised to be a laboured fifth or sixth. The consensus is that the big field, nicer ground and strong pace will suit her but i think it could be just as likely to cut the other way and see her out of her ground.

Limini is obviously a very good mare and a machine of a work horse, the choice of Ruby; I think she is susceptible to the more natural two-and-a-half miler here in Vroum vroum Mag, Mullins is at pains to point out how quick she is and she looks to me more of a 2miler. I think there could be a plunge on VVM tomorrow, think she is in danger of falling into the camp of being underrated. I'd completely discount Doncaster as she simply wouldn't be here if her work was reflective of that level of form since, she is the e/w bet iof the meeting for me at 3's.

4:50: think the Cheltenham record of Noel Meade and the way Jospeh's horses jump are two major negatives for the main Irish protagonists here. Henderson's Beware the Bear won a very good Ascot race earlier in the season against a Tom George horse Singlefarmpayment that if I remember rigfht was pretty strong in the market that day. Like the Mullins horses, this lad will be produced beautifully and Waley-Cohen is a capable pilot in the context of this race. His winning experience around proper tracks with proper fences like Ascot and Newbury will help him too.

5:30: Saw Tom George give Bun Doran a massive mention on ATR a while ago, intimated that the reason why he has made it in under the ratings ceiling is because of soft ground and the fact that he is a bit in and out. Said he is working like a proper fast horse now and should travel here. That is a massive plus here for me as I feel a lot of these horses simply will not be able to go the pace and will find the race a massive culture shock.
Report neill d March 14, 2017 12:17 AM GMT
On a less constructive note, I think Nico is very cocky and could get banged some day in the relatively near future. Talking to a few on twitter, they have him down as top-class. I don't see enough English racing day to day, but I don't think it is conceivable that he could be, nobody thought he would even make a jockey when he started in Henderons and that wasn't a million years ago.

Thought a few of his answers have been a bit cheeky this winter and I think the team in general are playing the 'we knew all along' card with Altior. Fck off, ye sent him off 2/1 against Maputo in his third, count it, third novice hurdle. The weakness of the Henderson team has always been that bar Geraghty, his stable jockey has never known his arse from a hole in the ground.

will laugh my bollocks of if it gets chinned tomorrow!
Report CustomCut March 14, 2017 12:58 AM GMT
My selections are Holywell for his outstanding festival record and All Hell Let Loose who's running off a mark he'd achieved when with Sandra Hughes and could be very well handicapped. Jumped well on stable debut at Kilbeggan.

Neill, what do you make of the fact that Nico has ridden 203 winners in his career when betfair starting price suggests he would only be expected to win 165? The lad's top class.
Report keen leader March 14, 2017 1:22 AM GMT
nico is an ordinary jockey and if based in Ireland would struggle for two rides in a routine week. I would bracket him in the jim culloty mould, another ordinary jockey in his time. what the pair share in common is that they possess(or in culloty's case, possessed) a big day cool and calm temperament, a very important and much overlooked quality in sportsmen in a heated cauldron. to date in his career, nico has been cool as a cucumber on pressurised days and it is only fair to acknowledge the fact.

thought provoking preview neill. we will all differ, I could not have royal caviar for all the tea in china, he did run in late January and had one opponent to beat after half a mile. he is a weak finisher and will melt when he sees the hill. I have always respected the form of the lightning chase at Donny,invariably, a proper Arkle trial, and I think those northern horses you don't rate may get closest to Altior.  Cloudy Dream on good ground is a proper tool.

Plus for good measure I think Apples Jade will spank the Mullins pair! it is a game of opinions and that is what drives the betting game.
Report huddys March 14, 2017 6:42 AM GMT
The life changing e/w super yankee selections
Champion hurdle- Wicklow brave 28/1,
National hunt novice chase-Edwuff 5/1,
County hurdle-Ivanovich Gorbatov 12/1
Ryanair chase-Empire of Dirt 4/1,
Gold cup-Djakadam 7/2,
Report pa lapsy March 14, 2017 8:00 AM GMT
In regards Labaik PP have indeed a starter insurance market as said above(16/1),a preemptive strike!
Report kavvie March 14, 2017 8:40 AM GMT
a very intresting write up neill .one thing id ask you tho.why will apples jade get badly outpaced and finish a badly beaten 5th or 6th?  wheres the evidence?  remember aintree?all sorts of weird reasons have been put forward for that run and a few more but the fact is she has the form to beat the 2 mullins ones.whether she does or not we will know soon enough
Report CheltenhamRoar March 14, 2017 9:52 AM GMT
Wherever apples jade finishes jers girl will be right upside, at the prices jers girl will do for me.
Report workrider March 14, 2017 10:33 AM GMT
My little contribution is as follows e/w super yankee.
River Wylde .8/1
Go Conquer 25/1
Yanworth  11/4
Kerrow 33/1
Powersbomb 20/1 .
After they have all won I will consider the first 5 applicants only for a loan.Laugh
Report neill d March 14, 2017 10:43 AM GMT
Apologies Keen Leader, you are indeed right re Royal Caviar.

Nico has indeed never messed up in a big race and is very cool, I just find it crazy that he can have improved that much.

I'd just be wary of a mare that is coming off the bridle so early all the time Kav, think there might be a day where she will chuck it in.
Report neill d March 14, 2017 10:46 AM GMT
I have no defence to those figures Custom, I was stirring it a bit in fairness saying Henderson should go and get David Mullins or Davy Russell!

Just thought he was very dismissive of Min earlier in the season and was a bit disrespectful. Keen Leader sums him up perfectly for me and I was thinking to myself hang on....
Report neill d March 14, 2017 10:47 AM GMT
Was listening to Heskin last night and he was saying that Irish racing is a lot more tactical and that they ride way tighter. You could drive busses through the gaps in some of those English races midweek.
Report macrocky March 14, 2017 11:38 AM GMT
1.30 melon must be destroying bunk off early and the rest at home given that Willie said ruby will have no problem making up his mind and ballyandy is no machine.
Altior  is one for the big hitters --super horse.
Noble endeavours form looks strong however 143 in ireland 153 in England.  Ibis de rheu should run well.
I like petit mouchoir sitting close to the pace and yanworth should be rattling home.
Ricci pulled limini out before VVM.   VVM is the e/w bet of the day
A genie in a bottle has caught my eye ever since his place at galway last autumn. A true honest stayer and he has Codd on board.
5.30 I came down on foxtail Hill and I would consider hammersly lake well handicapped and David mullins has had a great winter
Report padlock March 14, 2017 12:33 PM GMT
Few ew fancies today
2:50 IBIS DU RHEU
4:10 BRIERY QUEEN
4:50 Dancing Shadow, Tiger roll
5:30 Powersbomb

Melon + yanworth double
Report newapproach March 14, 2017 1:17 PM GMT
Ballyandy and A Genie in a bottle are my main bets today. Ballyandy looks the solid option in the supreme against the unknown quantity, Melon. The penny seemed to drop with Ballyandy in the Betfair hurdle and granted a strong pace which you usually get in the festival opener, he should win.

Neil Makes a valid point about Noel Meade's record @ Cheltenham but the excellent record of Jamie Codd's negates that for me. Hen looks a high class novice that should stay all day and fits the bill for this race. Edwulf's jumping is a massive negative.

I've had smaller e/w bets on a  good skin in the 3mile handicap chase and burton's well in the novice handicap. A good skin was 2nd in the Kim Muir last year off a higher mark and should like the ground and the course. Burton's well looks a progressive horse for in an in form trainer and should run well if he handles the ground which I think he will.

Good luck all.
Report pa lapsy March 14, 2017 1:35 PM GMT
YA FECKIN BEAUTY WILDMAN
Report norn iron March 14, 2017 1:36 PM GMT
CONGRATS ALL LAIBAK FOLLOWERS
Report Major Rumpus March 14, 2017 1:37 PM GMT
well done wildman
Report newapproach March 14, 2017 1:38 PM GMT
very well done lads
Report norn iron March 14, 2017 1:39 PM GMT
PA DID YOU GET 50/1 ? FAIR PLAY APPARENTLY GORDON SAID IF  STARTS WILL BE DEFF PLACED
Report pa lapsy March 14, 2017 1:43 PM GMT
33/1 with pp,and averaged out at 45's on exchanges,Norn, it was easy, Wildmans post on the day he jumped off way behind said it was something else,that is the forum,as quiet as it is that was some nugget, fair play again Wildman,hope you done very well.
Report by purpose March 14, 2017 1:45 PM GMT
Hats off.
Report Monte Christo March 14, 2017 1:48 PM GMT
Congrats Labaik backers.

Great Shout lads.
Report punchestown March 14, 2017 1:49 PM GMT
Well done on Labaik lads,you couldn't make this stuff up if you tried..Laugh
Report norn iron March 14, 2017 1:51 PM GMT
CORRECT  PA   WILDMAN  POST WAS GOOD THINKING AND IVE IDEA THAT EACH DAY GOING BE FEW GOOD POSTERS COME UP WITH THE GOODS 

WELL DONE PA EXCELLENT START
Report norn iron March 14, 2017 1:57 PM GMT
FAIR PLAY   ITV CRACKING TRIBUTE TO  JP MCNAMARA  SHOWS HOW DANGEROUS THIS RIDING IS AND WE ALL COMPLAIN  FAR TO MUCH WHEN LOSE A FEW £ ON EVEN THE BEST JOCKEYS

HARD NOT SHED TEAR WATCHING THAT
Report norn iron March 14, 2017 1:59 PM GMT
ID SAY LAIBAK AFTER  REFUSING FEW TIMES WAS CLOSE 1000/1 ON HERE ANTE POST ? AND IDEAS LADS?
Report Monte Christo March 14, 2017 1:59 PM GMT
Few for today :

2.50 A Good Skin & Vic De Touzaine (e/w)

3.30 Buveir Dair

4.10 Vroum Vroum Mag

4.50 Arpege Dalene & Flintham (e/w)

5.30 Two Taffs & Tully East
Report macrocky March 14, 2017 2:06 PM GMT
That's top tipping lads . Hopefully that guarantees a winning 2017 cheltenham even if ye have nothing else.
Top class
Report CheltenhamRoar March 14, 2017 2:07 PM GMT
Get in labaik! Handicapper walloped it up for its last run he knew!!
Report CheltenhamRoar March 14, 2017 2:34 PM GMT
That thread (in which pa is referring to re wildmans comments on labaiks last race) appears to have vanished
Report CheltenhamRoar March 14, 2017 2:38 PM GMT
By the way, we may have some history here, the first horse to win at the festival who raced at the beach (Laytown)Laugh
Although he did refuse to partake that day too!
Report workrider March 14, 2017 3:04 PM GMT
Well done Wildmanfromborneo, the milky bars are on you!Laugh
Report padlock March 14, 2017 5:14 PM GMT
Laugh
Report padlock March 14, 2017 5:24 PM GMT
Tiger roll got me out of the mess i made of day1
Report workrider March 14, 2017 5:54 PM GMT
Got a little back myself backed Powersbomb @ 6.4 tbp .It hit every fence then took it up with 2 too jump,surely would have gone close if jumping better.Well done padlocked on T.Roll.
Report norn iron March 14, 2017 6:06 PM GMT
WELL DONE ALL WINNERS  ROLL ON TOMORROW MISTER MYAGI EW NAP
Report pa lapsy March 14, 2017 6:09 PM GMT
Good shot Norn/Monte with Tully East.

One tough day for punters overall,Gordon had a great day and deserves it.
Report macrocky March 14, 2017 6:22 PM GMT
Is edwulf ok lads?
I thought English handicapper stopped noble endeavour. 10lbs  hike meant the difference. Michael o leary might have a point.
Report pa lapsy March 14, 2017 6:32 PM GMT
Donnacha O' Brien thinks he is okay and had a seizure, (not confirmed).

Agree, just a few lb too much for NE
Report neill d March 15, 2017 12:19 AM GMT
fair play to ye lads, especially wildman on the Edwulf shout, some great tipping on this including Buveur and Tully east by Norn and Monte plus Tiger Roll by padlock. Roll on tomorrow
Report neill d March 15, 2017 1:47 AM GMT
Labaik rather*
Report neill d March 15, 2017 9:11 AM GMT
Called the mares race and the Arkle bang right as well, Keen Leader. Apples Jade is a far better horse than I gave her credit for.
Report workrider March 15, 2017 9:19 AM GMT
Shattered Love anyone ? looks as if shes improving with each run,sure worth a few quid at the price.
Report CheltenhamRoar March 15, 2017 10:13 AM GMT
Can't decide between her and bon papa wr, might back both.
Report macrocky March 15, 2017 10:29 AM GMT
Neill d I said a topic couple months ago I thought Apples Jade is a world hurdle horse.  Slickster slagged me off.
I think Apples Jade stays very well. It hadn't the pace this season over 2 miles. It's been headed twice by VVM and won.
2018 cheltenham must be the year elliot will target the world hurdle
Report neill d March 15, 2017 11:04 AM GMT
I probably would've as well! Much much better mare than I gave her credit for, if you'd told me VVM was going to travel like that, I'd have said she'd leave her toiling. Got the lot wrong yesterday. Hoping to get a bit back on Bacardys, looks rock solid.
Report pa lapsy March 15, 2017 11:14 AM GMT
Neill i think Bacardys is a very poor price,may well win but Neon Wolf looks special, even besides that i think the "value" price is with Brelade simply has to find 3L + a LB on last running with Bacardys, 25/1 or 7/2?
Even circa 16/1 without fav is a sporting bet imo.
Very odd day yesterday,almost mundane for a Cheltenham talent wise i thought,poor results in the main,i wouldn't be surprised if another bookies day.
Report neill d March 15, 2017 1:06 PM GMT
You're probably right Pa, can't see him out of the frame, though and he's supposed to have improved. Its the kind of bet I like usually. Brelade will like the ground drying out for sure, excellent e/w shout.
Report neill d March 15, 2017 1:08 PM GMT
That Labaik win yesterday was one of the great forum moments of recent times, hope ye won plenty.
Report pa lapsy March 15, 2017 1:24 PM GMT
Probably one of the best races at the festival,looking forward to this one,going to take a good one.
I'll be ahead at the end of the meeting Neill which won't be a compliant anyway.
Wildmans comments were on the "Barry Geraghty" thread.
Best of luck today.
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