Irish Sports
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I have it between Outlander, the Tizzard horses & Djak
Mullins and Walsh would surely feel they have Outlander and Djak covered on what they already know about them.
I'd fancy taking on Cue Card at this time of his life.
Can see Ruby sitting off Native Riverand picking him up between the last two fences. I think this happens lads. If Douvan is going to be a Gold Cup horse, when does he ever get a better opportunity at it.
And here is the absolute kicker for me, iof they go down the Champion Chase route his year, they will be seen as ducking Altior if they don't run against him in it in 2018. Is there a staying Novice of the calibre of Altior at the minute that will be a Gold Cup horse next year, no way there is.
There will be easier races in the staying division next season and the way reputations are protected in NH these days, I don't think they'll want to be seen to be ducking Altior and his big-mouth jockey.
Mullins and Walsh would surely feel they have Outlander and Djak covered on what they already know about them.
I'd fancy taking on Cue Card at this time of his life.
Can see Ruby sitting off Native Riverand picking him up between the last two fences. I think this happens lads. If Douvan is going to be a Gold Cup horse, when does he ever get a better opportunity at it.
And here is the absolute kicker for me, iof they go down the Champion Chase route his year, they will be seen as ducking Altior if they don't run against him in it in 2018. Is there a staying Novice of the calibre of Altior at the minute that will be a Gold Cup horse next year, no way there is.
There will be easier races in the staying division next season and the way reputations are protected in NH these days, I don't think they'll want to be seen to be ducking Altior and his big-mouth jockey.
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Edit thread title, 2017 obviously, hope it doesn't take from my point!
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Maybe 2018 Neill?
Douvan would want to stay the Gold Cup distance well,no proof of that as an extended 2m max at most until now. I would think myself Native River would have him well burned out before 2 out,Native River as a horse has no choice but to put them to the sword as he stays so well. Outlander and Djakadam are closely enough matched. I think QM right for Douvan this year,slight bit more prestige than the Arkle,it would have made the festival that clash. Vautour was Mullins ace for GC,while it couldn't happen this year anyway i was a bit disappointed that Annie wasn't given a sighter at it,though would hate if anything happened her over a fence. |
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My thinking would be that he is that much better than them that the trip is immaterial. A very rare thing but the way Mullins raves about Douvan, how nothing can really work with him, I just think if any horse could do it he could.
One thing I think is in his favour is that he isn't keen like we'll say prime Sprinter Sacre or Masterminded who were both very effective over two-and-a-half miles. WPM has been gassin about going out in trip I would say he definitely gets 2m4f - 2m6f. Its highly unusual to have that belend of speed and stamina, but I don't think his running style was that of a pure two miler. I think if he had stepped up in trip straight after the Arkle, nobody would have batted an eyelid. It is just that they have gone the 2 mile route which would throw you, but I think that was as much due to circumstance with the trainer thinking he had Vautour and Un De Sceaux not quite being the horse they had hoped he was. |
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To be honest, if he were mine, I'd probably run him in the Champion Hurdle on the Tuesday and the Gold Cup on the Friday!
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Ha,the Champion Hurdle and Queen Mother could well be on, you can have a loan of my personal idea of colours,black and blue for the couple of days.
Yes agree would probably even get 3m's, Native River is a funny one though,zero chance of a slow pace,Mullins leaves little to chance, he will test the water distance wise and no doubt factor in rivals as well(Altior plans) |
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Rich men, cosseted horses, (irrelevant) Irish trainers' championship' jockey's earnings and avoid real competition at all costs, if softer alternatives available. A "poor" man cannot avoid selling a horse these days such is the money on offer and then these horses are not put to the true test.
Look what happens when the hand is forced a la Annie Power and we get moments of magic. Who cares if Douvan won't stay? it would be a spectacle reminiscent of the past when you didn't sleep wondering if Carvills Hill was the true reincarnation of Pegasus in the toughest test know to beast. |
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The great Flyinbolt won the Queen Mother and was 3rd in Champion Hurdle 2days later, If i had the good fortune to own Douvan he would be running in the Gold cup , he looks like he;s going down to the start at the end of his races.
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I think they do it lads, because looking at the opposition; it really isn't that difficult a feat and they would get mega praise for it. people will say they saved the Cheltenham Festival, it will cement Mullins' legacy and that of the horse. He'd have to win 3 or 4 champion chases to be held in the esteem he would be if he wins a Gold Cup in this way.
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It also really opens up options for them. Better options. should he stay, The Haydock Betfair and King George are far far easier options next season than a Tingle Creek showdown with Altior.
The **** will fly if they run in the Champion Chase and then duck Altior in December. |
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i see Thistlecrack is out of the Gold cup now.Many a anti/post Euro gone with that news.
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Neill d I'd say for certain he will have a crack at the KG next year.If he comes through that he would probably go the GC route.I would think this has always been the long term plan
But what troubles me is this talk of ducking Altior in December! Did you not say recently that Altior was only sent chasing so as to duck Faugheen over hurdles? I really don't think the connections of Altior or Douvan are thinking about ducking anybody. |
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More chance of Wonky getting the PHD than Douvan thriving on that test.
Mullins is conservative or pragmatic and chasing records. |
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I really don't think the connections of Altior or Douvan are thinking about ducking anybody.
That's a staggering comment. |
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That's a staggering comment. What do you think dj876?
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DJ,At least I have the odd winner,you on the other hand have made a career of getting odds on shots beat.
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That's very unfair Wonks.
DJ has demonstrated on several occasions his ability to turn a profit...there have been several threads where over the course of a week or some festival or other he has gone to the trouble of putting up his selections and a staking plan...and kept a running tally..to impressive effect. We all get short ones beaten. DJs analysis is always well written, interesting and incisive. You having a pop at him whilst asserting your own alleged tipping superiority is a classic example of Dunning–Kruger effect at work. (Pa can google that now that he has the hang of it). |
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I'm not sure WPM would have too much meas in the Tingle Creek(fair enough Un de Sceaux) but picking up the likes of the Hilly Way,Dial A Bet etc without breaking sweat and then having him bang on for March,as unsexy as it is,it is probably right.
Would it be possible that Henderson would bring Altior over for Punchestown, maybe that could be on,he likes a runner. |
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If Altior wins hard held in the Arkle Pa [which looks likely] we just might see Douvan v Altior at Punchestown.
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I'd be 99% sure that won't happen, in fact I'd say Mullins would see it as bad form on the part of Henderson. Would piss off the country set if Henderson did something like that!
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It might unfair in your eyes Oz,but he has proved the death knell for many a odds on shot,no matter how well his write ups appear.
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No chance of Henderson running Altior at Punchestown, he blames himself for running SS at Punchestown as a contributory factor.
The ducking of Faugheen/Annie Power combined with the ambition to right some wrongs and to emulate SS (or even better him) is the reason Altior won't be winning the champion hurdle on the bridle this year. |
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Hopefully DJ naps Altior in its next race and we can all make a few quid.
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