Irish Sports
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Great card, all races either feature quality or at least horses who are well matched (the Gold Cup and juvenile a case in point) and a few bets.
1.30 Blazing West 16/1. I like this guy Austin with his handicap hurdlers and this horse has won one in the past and is below her last winning mark. Coming off a good spell in chases and finished second last time, 9 pounds lower over hurdles so could have a little bit to work with. I very much respect Who's That in her big for the 3 in a row in this race under the capable Blackmore for another trainer I like (Cusack) but the prices point me towards Blazing West.
3.00 Chateau Conti 9/1. Very, very impressive at Cork and was talked about as a supreme horse after. Can totally understand Ruby and Paul's refusal of this horse but if anything in here is special I think this could be it.
3.30 Balko Des Flos 33/1. If Bellshill is in form it wins but has run the odd shocker at this time of year and obviously beaten on this day last year. I think Balko can beat the rest though, between 3 out and 2 out I thought it was a question of how far it would win last time and he's dropped back in trip today. Might be able to lead too which would really suit.
4.00 Sizing John 11/2. Very impressed with his win last time, race looked good to me as they dropped the bad horses well behind. On a convoluted line through Sub Lieutenant and Outlander he has the beating of Don Poli, Minella Rocco will surely improve for the run and for me was going nowhere when falling last time, and Carlingford Lough is a little ordinary. Empire Of Dirt is a little too free going for me and I think it will be a proper test. The chase course takes some getting from 2 out. As for Sizing John himself, I really felt he improved last time. Loved the step up in trip (didn't like it at Aintree last year but De Bromhead wasn't in great form at the time and a few ex De Bromhead horses have improved up in trip for Tizzard too) and Harrington is firing on all cylinders.
Hunter chase looks rotten, the green and gold will all probably need the run, I'll be at the track so might put a dirty each way on Need To Know, have to take advantage of these on track opportunities when you can't get each way bets on online.
1.30 Blazing West 16/1. I like this guy Austin with his handicap hurdlers and this horse has won one in the past and is below her last winning mark. Coming off a good spell in chases and finished second last time, 9 pounds lower over hurdles so could have a little bit to work with. I very much respect Who's That in her big for the 3 in a row in this race under the capable Blackmore for another trainer I like (Cusack) but the prices point me towards Blazing West.
3.00 Chateau Conti 9/1. Very, very impressive at Cork and was talked about as a supreme horse after. Can totally understand Ruby and Paul's refusal of this horse but if anything in here is special I think this could be it.
3.30 Balko Des Flos 33/1. If Bellshill is in form it wins but has run the odd shocker at this time of year and obviously beaten on this day last year. I think Balko can beat the rest though, between 3 out and 2 out I thought it was a question of how far it would win last time and he's dropped back in trip today. Might be able to lead too which would really suit.
4.00 Sizing John 11/2. Very impressed with his win last time, race looked good to me as they dropped the bad horses well behind. On a convoluted line through Sub Lieutenant and Outlander he has the beating of Don Poli, Minella Rocco will surely improve for the run and for me was going nowhere when falling last time, and Carlingford Lough is a little ordinary. Empire Of Dirt is a little too free going for me and I think it will be a proper test. The chase course takes some getting from 2 out. As for Sizing John himself, I really felt he improved last time. Loved the step up in trip (didn't like it at Aintree last year but De Bromhead wasn't in great form at the time and a few ex De Bromhead horses have improved up in trip for Tizzard too) and Harrington is firing on all cylinders.
Hunter chase looks rotten, the green and gold will all probably need the run, I'll be at the track so might put a dirty each way on Need To Know, have to take advantage of these on track opportunities when you can't get each way bets on online.
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Hunter chase looks rotten, the green and gold will all probably need the run, I'll be at the track so might put a dirty each way on Need To Know, have to take advantage of these on track opportunities when you can't get each way bets on online.
If it goes to form, On The fringe will need the run... not getting any younger. A one to keep an eye on is STAKER WALLACE, looks to be the EW bet in the race. |
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Staker Wallace it is then, looks like I was overly quick to dismiss him as the form of his last point looks great. On The Fringe makes the market, I'd go win only if not for Foxrock's exceptional record here.
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Two e/w bets for me today;
Head Turner 10/1 Tough mare who thrives in soft ground as shown when winning @ Limerick over Christmas. A lot of these mares may not appreciate underfoot conditions so knowing that this mare loves it is a big boost in the context of the race. She's on a career high mark but the race lacks depth so hopefully she'll be in the 3 at least. A Toi Phil 14/1 Horses for courses is the angle here. 3 wins out of 4 @ Leopardstown, the only time he was beaten when running over 3 miles @ Christmas. This intermediate trip should suit a lot better. He's probably not the most straight forward but she showed last time he does try when push comes to shove. There are a few doubts over his rivals. Belshill possibly better on a flat track, Disko might not appreciate drop in trip and Blue et Rouge must improve jumping. Looks a very open race and one to look forward to. Best of luck. |
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Blood Crazed Tiger is a horse I've followed over a cliff, same again today ,unlucky last time when doing what he does best imo, that's leading, its going to take getting out there today and this lads stamina will hopefully come into play.I think this is a monster e/w chance .Have backed Bapaume, he came on for the run the last day ,as someone alluded too already Bellshill ran a stinker here last year,carrying my pieces of silver,Disco is worth a punt here. Don Poli has a mind of his own,it was on show @ D.R.were to say he was mullish is a understatement ,if in the right frame of mind he will take all the beating today....
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I think it's rather inaccurate to refer to a horse that has won a Galway plate, grade 1 Topaz Novice chase at Christmas, a grade 1 novice chase at Punchestown, a grade 1 Punchestown gold cup, two Irish Hennesy gold cups and 4th in a Cheltenham Gold Cup as a little ordinary. At 11 he's pushing on (a fair observation) but I would have him as favourite today and at 9/2 is overpriced after showing his well being over an inadequate distance behind Jezki, also this race is his main aim.
It could be a cracking day for veteran/gentleman trainer John Kiely, although the ground has gone against his mare in the first,I am still hoping she might get away with it. She did handle soft ground at Wexford and Punchestown but seemed to improve for the better ground here last time. I wouldn't be Dennis O'Regan's biggest fan by any stretch but his quiet style suits this listed flat winning mare. The ground has definitely brought question marks as to whether it will blunt her finishing kick though. Her full brother isn't out of the bumper (ran on well over C&D after meeting trouble) either although I presume with a DOC/JK partnership in a bumper,exaggerated waiting tactics will be employed. I can rarely remember such competitive racing (obviously a small number of connection dominate numerically) on an Irish grade 1 card and would love to see Carlingford Lough notch up the hatrick or an old school gent. |
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WD on sizing john, op
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Well done on S.John C. C. A bitterly cold day, not a bad crowd either, really enjoyed the big race 5 in line at the last,each one giving its all.Not sure Disko would have held on if Duke hadn't made that mistake at the last,I was near the line and was a little worried as Duke ground it out all the way after the last, I for one was glad the line came when it did.
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Our duke is clearly a very nice prospect for next season, 3 miles today he wins half the track,
Sizing John proving what I thought all along a 3 mile plus horse, he'd stay 4 miles on his head if needed. Empire of dirt ran a cracker didn't think Kennedy covered himself in much glory with the ride he gave him, still improving at the age of 10 and has a good a chance as many in the gold cup. |
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I would never have thought S.J.would have stayed that far myself Chelt so well done on spotting that.I wouldn't really fault Jack on that ride, I'd say if you gave him 2nd before the race he'd have bit your hand off,thought he kept him nicely settled and tried to pinch it near the line.
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Absolutely horrible conditions today, first time I've ever left a card early, didn't hang around for the bumper and despite the good race I don't regret that call. Bellshill looked in big trouble when he fell, screens were going up before he leapt to his feet. Wouldn't fancy any of the winners today for the future, don't think Sizing John is quite good enough for the gold cup but it boosts Sub Lieutenant for the Ryanair. On The Fringe obviously a big horse to take out of today, jumped brilliant (although made to look better by Foxrock's slow leaps) and has never run so well on his seasonal reappearance.
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Yeah can understand what they were thinking tactically with empire of dirt but just my opinion having watched it back couple of times that he slightly over did the tactics it's as if he rode him to be placed having him so far back but I wasn't complaining too much I backed SJ again today,
Thought Endas other horse was the big eye catcher Custom. |
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Agree, rode it far enough out the back though.
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I fell for Bellshill and I'm annoyed with myself.
I should have listened to Workrider,he not alone tipped up Disko but gave a pertinent reason to swerve Bellshill,he doesn't like Leopardstown. I don't think we saw a Cheltenham winner in any of Group 1s. Sizing John got the 3 miles but off a slow pace,big doubt about him staying the Gold Cup distance. The Hunters Chase was informative in that although 12 On The Fringe looked as good as ever,he normally needs the run and that's not his ground. Having said that Staker Wallace is the horse to take out of that race,I can see him winning races in Punchestown for years to come. I don't think Ruby is riding well,injuries are catching up with him,he doesn't seem to be able to hold on to a horse like he used nor can he use his whip like he used. Its sad but age and injury seem to be catching upon him. |
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Twice now a messy last hurdle cost Toe The Line,i half expected her to be pulled out given the ground and the ho-haa last time over better ground suiting her a lot better.
Handicapper gave her 5lb for that,harsh on the face of it for a 2nd but lenient if she ran that race on so called unsuitable ground, her style(held up,one attack) says an ew shout on better ground in a big field handicap possibly Punchestown festival. Agree with Stalker Wallace. Head on showed how unlucky Empire of Dirt was,stablemate did just enough to cost him the race,Ryanair compo. From the weekend thought Altior was just awesome, Ballyandy will be a justified market fancy in Coral/County after that. |
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Ruby called the big race very well beforehand with a lack of natural pace in the race - a slip up by Gigginstown.
I am not sure if the O'Learys would have been overjoyed to hear Ted Walsh describe Cooper and Ruby being ecstatic cheering home Puppy Power. Surely outward;y at least Brian should have been cheering his employer's placed horses. Ruby didn't do anything wrong on Sunday but would tend to agree with WMFB that his riding has dipped this year (one of course could accurately point to a slight chnge in the guard etc) His ride on Chambord du Lys at Fairyhouse was an absolute disgrace, two stone in hand and leading by a head going to the last is inexcusable (pocket talk) Altior is the best 2 miler in training, it annoys me to hear about breeding when you have individual form to view. It's like talking about a horse not staying a trip on breeding when you have his own actual form to make that judgement |
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I'd agree Ruby probably hasn't been riding at his very best this winter but I'd hold judgement until after Cheltenham. Good ground, a fast pace and high quality horses around Prestbury Park seperates the men from the boys and that's when we'll be able to make a proper judgement about him.
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His accomplishments for the season may well depend on a few days at Cheltenham and of course he will be more than likely be top notch.
but I don't think it's being unfair to judge his riding on a whole throughout the year from an impartial perspective(regardless of Cheletenham) |
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He has quit Nicholls place a fair while, (and rode beautifully for most of the time since) but I wonder is riding less possibly finally starting to effect his sharpness? People have opined Geraghty has slipped a little as well and I wonder is it slightly similar. Okay its a gruelling schedule over and back to England, but I imagine it has benefits like keeping the eye in and controlling weight. There wasn't loads of jumping in January, like.
The Chambord du Lys ride reminded me a lot of something Paul Carberry might do, just really lax. The likes of Ruby don't neccessarily need to be on the best horses to have a bonanza at Cheltenham. I love that French horse that is favourite for the Triumph, was reading about his background on the AP forum here when a poster called Now We Know flagged him a good while ago; but then I saw him jumping up the straight at Chepstow over Christmas; Philip Hobbs; Jesus I just can't have him as a trainer, wouldn't trust him to have him there right at all; I know he has had Captain Chris, detroit City and a few more, but I just can't have him. Have a fairly strong fancy for Megafortune now on the new course on a bit of good to soft. Think he is a lot pacier than his laziness makes him look too. |
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Bit gutted about Bellshill, I think I will probably still back him on the day of they take up the RSA engagement; going on his Feltham price, I'm not sure the Henderson camp really believe in Might Bite.
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Very obvious point to make, but that Our Duke looks a bit of a moral for the 3m1f at Punchestown. We can get a deluge that week, but usually it is okay, the trip and his relative freshness will obviously be a massive bonus, but I'd say the biggest factor as much as anything will be that he will jump way better out of nicer ground.
Empire of Dirt ran some race, didn't jump the last great, really fancy him for the Ryanair at this stage. Come some way from falling with a beginners at his mercy in Thurles a couple of years ago. Elliot is some upgrade. |
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From the other thread you know i have a vested interest in might bite and i think your possibly right.
Although he won at cheltenham over hurdles i think all his best form is on flat tracks. Hopefully he,s still improving though. |
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Might Bite generally wins his races on the bridle or not at all. He's been extremely unimpressive under pressure. Watch his Ffos Las run and his 2 Cheltenham hurdle runs. Also his Newbury bumper. For whatever reason Kempton really suits him. Wouldn't really trust him around Cheltenham but it could be a bad enough RSA that he can win on the bridle. As for Our Duke, I don't mind the decision to skip Cheltenham, I'd keep him to more conventional tracks for the time being. The 3 mile novice at Aintree would really suit him. I just hope connections are willing to go there.
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