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Not alone is Willie Mullins the better trainer but is much the better poker player.
His aim isn't to put away ante-post punters but to ensure that the opposition is as weak as possible.
Altior may have the physique of a chaser but would win this champion with his head in his chest.
Henderson has been mopping up novice chases worth in total 60k where the likes of Chitbello, the New One and Irving have being mopping up graded hurdles at up to 70 grand per pop.
We all tend to like the Henderson stable and think they'll have a decent festival but he has almost too much respect for WPM now and Willie is exploiting that weakness ruthlessly.
His aim isn't to put away ante-post punters but to ensure that the opposition is as weak as possible.
Altior may have the physique of a chaser but would win this champion with his head in his chest.
Henderson has been mopping up novice chases worth in total 60k where the likes of Chitbello, the New One and Irving have being mopping up graded hurdles at up to 70 grand per pop.
We all tend to like the Henderson stable and think they'll have a decent festival but he has almost too much respect for WPM now and Willie is exploiting that weakness ruthlessly.
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Agree, he is afraid of his life of Mullins. Altior completely unexposed as a 2 mile hurdler having been a pretty exceptional looking Supreme Novices winner, I don't think Henderson has ever sent such a horse over fences.
I think Henderon might also cognisant of his record of the winning most trainer at Cheltenham and wants to top that up with what he probably views as an Arkle penalty kick. You could possibly lump Buveur D'Air in there too until the issues with the Mullins horses surfaced. Mullins has basically changed Henderson's his MO with fast, top class novice hurdlers |
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I think the game changed a bit with Faugheen in the Neptune, what was he 5/2 the morning of the race from a 3m heavy ground hurdle in Limerick, race looked competitive or whatever smashed into 10/11, wins as he likes.
That was the day that they discovered that what happens at home on Mullins' gallop is probably important than what we see on the course. Could be the same again with Melon. Don't think Nicholls and Henderson have ever recovered from that, or any English trainer and they will always doff the cap to Mullins. Mullins be like He probably think he could, but, but I don't think he should! |
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on phone, apologies for typos
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Neil, Did you back PM at 9/4 ew last week as you suggested on the other thread? There was always the possibility that Faugheen wouldn't show or if he did, wouldn't be running to 170+ (given it wasn't bullet to the head time)
It was almost certain that WPM knew that Annie Power wouldn't make Cheltenham when suggesting the possibility of the champion hurdle clash. Ruby deserved a medal for his "surprise reaction" after the clarence house. Think about the logistics of a text even if it was that late in the day. Why are the racing media so spineless ( without exception). Surel the possibilty of being frozen out is there in other sport also. It's as if any criticism can be taken as casting a slur on one's integrity because of the prevalence of betting in the sport. For me this is an excuse and cast irons the omerta. This incidents are becoming more common and from Willie's perspective are not correlated with betting but the intention of influencing his competitor's long term plans |
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I did back him yeah, got lucky and worked out better than I expected in truth. He had that profile and running style that I'm a sucker for. Thought he'd do it better in the end but they say they went hard. I think Mullins' is a place where horses can get better forged in the fire so to speak, working with their betters and maybe that happened with Footpad as well as a bit of a pace collapse.
There's a ruthlessness about Mullins. I watched the doc on his father like all the rest of us on here, and you get the sense that overall, he never trained the quality of horse that his talent merited. Think this might have made WPM a pretty cold bast*rd in ways. Omerta is right. I don't blame the guys so much as if WPM won't speak to you, you're basically irrelevant. It isn't like the EPL where they're mandated to speak I don't think. Maybe if it was a condition of the grant! It's one thing i would commend Nicholls for, think I read that the Kauto star schooling fall wasn't reflected straight away in the exchanges, maybe it was the first sign he was going soft. |
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Its like he's thinking in his mind, if I keep this under my hat another few days; that's probably another schooling session a reverter from fences has had over the larger obstacles than the hurdles, maybe another half of a percent in his favour.
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I'd agree with that concept Neil, it's clever but is only as effective as it has been because of his recent success and his competitor's " respect".
He has increased the probability in his favour whatever the result. I'd imagine WPM is as ruthless as you could get, by all accounts he gave Paul Townend an extremely tough times of things in the early days. |
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Don't know Paul Townend or anybody that knows him but he always seemed a really affable fella in interviews, and then I saw a picture of him in a Pokemon onesie on ATR which was provided by one of his housemates I think.
Natural talent who everything comes easy to, could see how WPM had to show him how this was serious sh!t! He stepped in extraordinarily well when Ruby was out, probably showed the esteem he was held in even then. There's a story of Paul Nicholls tearing into Ruby in front of the public for the ride he gave Azertuyip when Moscow won the Tingle Creek. Its funny I can never picture them having that dynamic; but it happened by all accounts. The succession issue with Walsh is soooo compelling, you'd hear himself needs the cash, will get choosy and stick around possibly another 3 or 4 years. with the progression rate David Mullins is on, that puts a question that it might be him that takes over. The reason I wonder is that Mullins appears so much to the manor born, is so self-assured and is family. I'd suspect Townend might be easier to say 'no' to. I'd rather see him number 1 at hendersons than some sort of high end David Casey if there is any doubt at all about his role post Ruby. |
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There is still an investigation into the withdrawal of Faugheen last year,there is still money in escrow.
The eye is firmly on the Mullins stable with regards these withdrawals,betting accounts are being monitored. |
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With the amount of stable stars he has i would be surprised if Willie Mullins was involed in any wrong doing [betting wise],, having said that any one who had Knowledge before the press got hold of Faugheen withdrawal would be on there phones Pronto.
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You're correct WMFB, BF are holding money that they don't have any entitlement to but they do that every week
You also made an accusation that Faugheen failed a test at Kempton last year after the Christmas hurdle. You said that a court injunction had halted proceedings, this can not be corroborated and to me is extremely loose talk |
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I never said he failed a test after Kempton.
All I remember saying was that I thought he was carrying some injury the day he got beaten in Punchestown. There was an injunction but I thought it concerned a vet ( not the Carlow one )looking to stop some unfortunate publicity. |
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Apologies if I misinterpreted your comments on a thread last summer as that wasn't my intention.
BD 10 lengths behind Altior in the supreme and hammers the fighting fifth winner (IRVING) by 12 lengths today. Henderson winning 5k-15k novice chased with Altior and BD while the likes of the new one, chiteblleo and Irving were winning 60-70k graded hurdle races this year is poor judgement and placement. The reason he took these options is an obsession with the Cheltenham festival (like many other trainers) and too much respect (bordering on fear) of WPM |
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Didn't see Buveur today but he must be doing serious stuff at home. Wouldn't like to say what his ceiling could be, Geraghty pulling his hair out I'd say having to choose. They'll water the **** out of it for the Tuesday if nature doesn't do it, think that helps him too!
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Thats a bit harsh Dj86. Altior would make it to the top whether hurdling or chasing and seeing as they always saw him as a chaser then this season was the right time to go that route.
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I think Altior could quite possibly be the best 2 mile horse in training.
In strictly monetary terms (excluding prestige) winning an Arkle is worth around 85k in comparison to in excess of 250k for the champion. You state that he would reach the top whether over hurdles or fences and think I am being harsh by stating that Henderson should have been mopping up the graded hurdle races (60-70k to the winner each time) in the UK this year rather than winning 3 novices chases worth an accumulated total of 50k? |
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Yes,just like Douvan, he could be winning those hurdles this year but he could be a champion 2 mile chaser or a gold cup horse next year.
He's now 7 so if not now then when should they go chasing with him or are you saying he shouldnt be sent chasing at all? I cant see how its poor judgement seeing as he's taking so well to chasing so far. |
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You couldn't have picked a worse example.
Massive difference, the trainer and owner had the last 2 champion hurdle winners in training. You were hardly expecting them to send a champion hurdle winning mare over fences? or Faugheen? What had they to gain by keeping the 3 of them over hurdles? If you can't understand that if Altior had been kept over hurdles this year, he probably would have earn in excess if £500,000 if he wins the Arkle he'll have earned £135,000. BD is at least 10lbs inferior to ALtior but stuffs one of this year's moderate grade 1 winners by a dozen lengths ( some allowance for being in receipt of weight) Aside from the monetary variance, winning an arkle when a champion hurdle is a very distinct possibility is the equivalent of winning an intermediate title in comparison to a senior title. It really is that simple. |
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I understand the economics of it and obviously the top novices have less earning power than in open class.
I take it then that you are saying Altior should never be sent chasing because of the money he's leaving behind over hurdles. I've seen nothing so far to think that Henderson got it wrong going chasing so we'll have to agree to disagree. |
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I think he'll p1ss the Arkle, he'd be a short price favourite for the champion hurdle now and you still think that's not an error?
Look at what has won the graded races in the UK this year and tell me he shouldn't have been kept over hurdles. It's not even debatable. I've seen nothing so far to think that Henderson got it wrong going chasing so we'll have to agree to disagree. 350k difference in prize money, that's not much sure- Not an error so. GL. |
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Right back to the question so...Do you think that Altior should never be sent chasing?
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Its a prestige thing for me as much as money as to why he should've stayed hurdling, it was a duck of Faugheen as such and they went so far down that line they were unwilling to turn back.
There's a great programme for 2 mile hurdlers in the UK and Ireland, loads of options Most prestigious races at Cheltenham 1. Gold Cup 2. Champion Hurdle 3. Champion Chase 4. Arkle 5. Stayers Hurdle, for good horses that fall short doing other things; Ryanair the same really. 6. Supreme Novices & 2m5f novice are equally prestigious, made up of Gold Cup & Champion Hurdle horses 7. RSA |
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Arkle can have future Gold Cup and Champion Chase horses, a great race.
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or*
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Neill, Altior was always going to be a chaser.He wasn't sent chasing to avoid Faugheen over hurdles.Next season he'll be meeting the likes of Douvan and/or Thistlecrack.
For sure he would be a force over hurdles too but he can't run in everything. If he stays sound and holds his form he's going to win some serious prizemoney over the next few years, not that it would be about the money given the number of bumper horses, point-to-pointers,and French horses in- training which are bought up for 200k or 300k a pop every day of the week and turn out to be worth buttons. Traditional owners and trainers, when given the option of having a top hurdler or chaser, would prefer a chaser. |
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Altior is flat bred through and through,he's not unlike Istabraq in that regard.
He hasn't had a decent race over fences yet so we don't know how he would jump under pressure. They should have given him a shot at the Champion Hurdle. |
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I laid Altior for the Arkle myself at 1.8 not because i dont think he will win but for the reasons that Wildman outlines in his post,theres also some good horses still in the race, i hope some of them will take him on,time will tell.
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You'd want to get yourself a stiff drink now Frank
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I see Min is out of the Arkle,
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It has ended up a very mundane looking Champion Hurdle,nothing exciting and much of a muchness on ratings.
It probably was at the mercy of Altior now,Henderson though in some mitigation has a couple of legitimate challengers. To a slightly lesser extend the thread could have been Yorkhill rather than Altior, i was surprised WPM didn't allow him to switch back to hurdles,maybe he given the open nature is happy to fire darts? Footpad has a chance of running well on last run,quicker pace should suit but prior hard to see winning. Wicklow Brave on flat form is entitled to a chance,a lot to find on his hurdles running though. Vroom Vroom by all accounts is going for the mares(liquid),she hasn't sparkled lately. Willie even though it was misfortune looks as if he was caught bluffing. |
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I've lost you there Pa...bluffing how?
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Just going back to the original few posts Firsttimevisor,ie declare everything and put the horrors in the opposition, as time wore on though between Faugheen first and Annie then,he seems to have ended up with a poor hand.
Poor use of English alright(yet again) |
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Would think once Annie and Faugheen were ruled out he would have accepted the champion hurdle was going to another home this year though he still could win it.
For Yorkhill and Altior though, they had gone down the chasing route before those injuries and I would have been amazed if either had switched back to hurdles. |