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wildmanfromborneo
28 Jan 17 21:32
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Date Joined: 30 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 21,252 | Blogger: wildmanfromborneo's blog
He's currently 8/1 with Ladbrokes for the stayers,that's a huge price.
Unowhatimeanharry is scaring them all off but looks very beatable to me.
Jezkis return at Navan showed his jumping hadn't changed as he skipped over them,must come on plenty from that run.
Its rare Champion Hurdlers run in the Stayers but it seems to be his target.

The huge falling away of Champion Hurdle horses may bring about a change in plan so the best bet is non runner no bet,some of you good scavengers should be able to find that concession.

While your at it you could do worse than back him for the Champion Hurdle as well on the same basis.

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Replies: 25
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 28 Jan 17 23:30
Not a chance this will happen if Harry turns up fit and well for Cheltenham, the Champion hurdle is cutting up and JP has Harry who is a strong jolly in the stayers. He has Yanworth in the champion but that race is starting to cut up and may even cut up further and become quite an open race. You need to apply some logic to the situation by actually thinking about somethig you clearly have not done yet, as well as that if you want to play the 8's your going to have to bet it without the non runner no bet concession as the books that offer that are only 5's & 6's, which is no value. My advice to you even though i don't have a clue of horse racing is keep your shillings in your pocket my friend.
By:
allways collects
When: 29 Jan 17 01:05
Would i be right in saying that you are of the opinion that Jezki will run in neither the champion or stayers hurdle?
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 29 Jan 17 02:36
No ac, what i am saying, or trying to say rather mate, is there is far more chance he runs in the champion hurdle than the stayers because of Harry being such a warmm order for the stayers. I think what is being flagged up here is a very poor bet.
By:
macrocky
When: 29 Jan 17 10:51
Will Apples Jade go for the slayers.  I thought last day it's stamina showed through
By:
slickster
When: 29 Jan 17 16:37
At 5 years of age? You having a laugh?
By:
one last chance
When: 29 Jan 17 22:56
Slickster ur a laugh everytime you post
By:
pa lapsy
When: 29 Jan 17 23:32
I,m not convinced with uknowwhatimeanharry either, it is beating the same ones each time over which look average,Snow Falcon looked to be the only one giving it a race this season.
I wasn,t gone on the way it idled late on yesterday either,Barry was quick to dismiss that thinking it was in keeping with the horse.

Jezki,s plan is the Red Mills in the middle of next month, that 2m trip would have me raising a question with regards the stayers,it won,t totally dismiss it but beating the Fly over 3m wouldn't guarantee it is a natural stayer,it does seem without much evidence it could work.

I do think an ew against the fav was the way to go(nrmb),bit disappointed Clondaw won,t be the one,Snow Falcon i thought was a bit unlucky Milsean went as that was harrying Shaneshill,but doubt that race will give the winner.
The uncertainty with Mullins runners/plans is another headache,Annie out and Vroom Vroom could go Mares.
Pure guessing with the stable but a bit of blue on oddschecker(still 33's) for Footpad, though never beyond 2m, i got the impression it may stay and seemed to be ridden out the back,i got half a feeling not to dismiss that yet.
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 30 Jan 17 00:13
Footpad flattered to finish so close today, PM & NC went some lick from flag fall and didn't stop, was always gonna be something finishing in behind, wouldn't read too much into that.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 30 Jan 17 11:38
^ Fair enough, if i had to knock that race i'd say Nicholls Canyon wouldn't get a medal for consistency,i did take 33's(nrnb) for a smallish bet,that race(Irish cham),an unknown quantity,not a clue what is happening with Mullins plans,not gone on fav, a few reasons, i think it would be 10/1 if he lined up.
I can see the merit of the thread in having a look at alternatives rather than the fav,Jezki and Apple Jade if lining up would come into consideration,the nrnb is a must now though.
By:
wildmanfromborneo
When: 30 Jan 17 12:25
One thing I've learned from here is the ability of forumites to extract great concessions from bookmakers.
The main point of this thread was my opinion that Jezki was back,his jumping in Navan was slick and even when his lack of a run was kicking in he pinged the last.

The way the Champion Hurdle is cutting up any NRNB concession is vital.
I think Jezki might not have the speed for a Champion anymore which is why I recommended the Stayers although nothing stopping you backing him in both races.

One significant thing about Footpad yesterday was how strong he was in the market,he also improved significantly from his Christmas run.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 30 Jan 17 12:50
Jezki,s run was likeable,i can see why the stayers but as said above the Red Mills looks to me a last look at a champion tilt.

Maybe Footpad is brought along for a French champion tilt(?),i'm not sure, being over simplistic(ha) you have Nicholls Canyon at 6/1ish for the stayers(a truly shocking price even though a probable runner given the Wylies love affair with the race) against a horse that looks as if an extra mile will suit at 5 times the price,a no brainer to me. Gone blue for Chamion as well.

Faugheen lining up(or not) looks the key to who goes where in alot of cases.
By:
frank60
When: 30 Jan 17 13:59
I think Jessie will leave the decision in which race to run until the last week, a careful eye on the n/r n/b seems the way to go, PP are normally the 1st to give n/r n/b once March arrives.
By:
macrocky
When: 30 Jan 17 15:19
I had to Google SLICKSTER
I wouldn't dismiss the yr olds in the stayers.
True last 15 years there has been no winners.
There hasn't been too many that have tried usually max of 1 a year that started.
However despite the small entry numbers a few have come 3rd Smad place Behrajan Crystal dainay,
Ebadiyan for Patrick Brady came 5th.
I don't think Apples Jade hasn't the gears to win the champion. Aintree hurdle might suit it more.
All depends how giggingstown view cheltenham

If anyone hears in the media what plans are for Apples jade post it please. I think it's a 2 and half miler if not more
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 30 Jan 17 15:35
PP are NR no bet a long time in the championship races,
Would be some performance if Faugheen wins the CH on his first run of the season even with a horse of his ability,
I don't think we'll see him again this season just my opinion
By:
duffy
When: 01 Feb 17 01:42
Jezki a champion hurdler.

takes that class into the stayers where we know he stays.

completely different calibre of horse to what harry has raced against.

I think it would be a fair shout to say that geraghty would ride him.

In short he is another Solwhit.
By:
frank60
When: 01 Feb 17 13:00
Not sure he is another Solwhit duffy[he still has to prove that] interesting to note when he won the Champion Hurdle a few years back his time was the 2nd fastest Champion Hurdle ever, i dont think he is the same horse now ; but i hope im wrong for Jessies sake.
By:
frank60
When: 01 Feb 17 15:28
Bet 365   from today

We are now Non-Runner No Bet and Best Odds Guaranteed on every race at this year's Cheltenham Festival.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 01 Feb 17 17:41
I presume this also means all prices are slashed from today
By:
pa lapsy
When: 01 Feb 17 18:04
Yes,that is the other side of it,nevermind the media will still cater for them(reps), and give them time to say how good they are and the pile of bollix along the lines of it has been a funny year with regards plans,injuries,doubts etc.

Their Champion Hurdle book;

5/4, 3/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 8/1 10/1 12/1 14/1bar.

Nice book that, the bog i suppose is a saving grace but havent seen an overround like that in horse racing for a long time.
By:
frank60
When: 01 Feb 17 21:51
Your point is a very valid one Pa. To be fair you cant blame 365 for being Cautions where the betting for the Champions Hurdle is Concerned. for me i will be keeping an eye open for the non/Championship races.
By:
dj876
When: 01 Feb 17 22:30
If you can get on, there is massive value to be had with NRNB on multiple bets (with guaranteed prices).eg  An accum becomes a treble with a NR

There are doubles done which can be done with NRNB - both ways. Completely related (contingency bets).

These shouldn't be allowed but are, there are instances where doubles are more related than first goalscorer and correct score.

In my view though in these instances where one's participation is dependent on a stablemate's participation, you're in some ways better off to utilise the full odds and do both ways. (because of excessive trimming of nrnb)
By:
frank60
When: 01 Feb 17 22:57
Iv never had a problem getting a bet on with 365 DJ, I opened a a/c with them about 2years ago and im 8k up with them, [which is more then you can say about sportbook]   I might get the red card now Grin
By:
dj876
When: 01 Feb 17 23:03
Hopefully you get another festival out of it. It makes a refreshing change to here about an open profitable a/c rather than the moaners who seem to wear it as a badge of honour.

I think we can all agree about the sportsbook. I heard there was a rumour that PP is now involved with BF. There have been some amount of changes since the takeover Whoops

More snooping software is the biggest one, the exchanges owned by the books. Keep your friends close and your competitors (dangers) even closer!
By:
kavvie
When: 02 Feb 17 13:01
dj i think its when you withdraw the red lights come on.i know a lad in same position as frank with boils..and they bet him awa y no bother..
By:
Rocketfingers
When: 18 Feb 17 20:32
Wildman you'd be better be hoping Jezki does not turn up at Cheltenham full stop, the horse has no chance of doing anything.
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