Irish Sports
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1.30 High School Days 10/1 looks a good bet. Decent flat horse in France and De Bromhead hurdling debutantes do very well, I like to oppose these Joseph O'Brien hurdlers as a lot don't jump very well and it wouldn't surprise me if the Elliott horse needed the run a little bit.
2.00 Another Challenge 14/1. Ran respectably in a much better race than this last time, looks nailed on to run a nice race
2.30 People's Park 5/1. Can't believe this horse's price, won easily over the C&D 2 starts ago and clear non stayer last time. Not a perfect jumper but in a field full of nearly horses and horses that aren't really well handicapped I think he'll win.
3.30 Laid Back Luke 4/1. Clearly got the best form for me on that run behind Powersbomb, had Motown Bob well beaten 2 starts ago and through that horse he'd be entitled to beat Catalaunian Fields. Goulane Chosen looking exposed at this stage and I think Laid Back Luke has already produced a better level of form. I can completely excuse his last run on the basis of the trip, he ran a bit keen early and went well enough until around 3 and a half furlongs out.
As for the rest of the card, Ballyoisin is a horse I really like and if he wasn't taking on a Mullins horse tomorrow I'd be backing him. Hype around Townshend seems to have died down but I'd still fear him massively. In the 1.00 if Synopsis or Une Lavandiere are lining up prominently (ie they look like they'll be trying) I'll probably have a bet as the market leaders look somewhat weak.
2.00 Another Challenge 14/1. Ran respectably in a much better race than this last time, looks nailed on to run a nice race
2.30 People's Park 5/1. Can't believe this horse's price, won easily over the C&D 2 starts ago and clear non stayer last time. Not a perfect jumper but in a field full of nearly horses and horses that aren't really well handicapped I think he'll win.
3.30 Laid Back Luke 4/1. Clearly got the best form for me on that run behind Powersbomb, had Motown Bob well beaten 2 starts ago and through that horse he'd be entitled to beat Catalaunian Fields. Goulane Chosen looking exposed at this stage and I think Laid Back Luke has already produced a better level of form. I can completely excuse his last run on the basis of the trip, he ran a bit keen early and went well enough until around 3 and a half furlongs out.
As for the rest of the card, Ballyoisin is a horse I really like and if he wasn't taking on a Mullins horse tomorrow I'd be backing him. Hype around Townshend seems to have died down but I'd still fear him massively. In the 1.00 if Synopsis or Une Lavandiere are lining up prominently (ie they look like they'll be trying) I'll probably have a bet as the market leaders look somewhat weak.
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If People's Park is to win today then I'd imagine that 5-1 will disappear before the off. I have backed him in the hope of trading it.
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Market suggested he wasn't going to win today anyhow
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Well done on the last one, CC. Level stakes profit, we can't ask for any more than that!
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Cheers, that Paloma Blue must be some tool to carry Roche to victory, especially as De Bromhead's horses are usually terrible in bumpers.
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Will probably be a performance that might pass some people by as there have been plenty sexier bumper winners this season but that was an exceptional debut from Paloma Blue.
He was left out of his ground the majority of the race and still won quite comfortably. It bodes well that the four other horses at the front of the market followed him home and there was notable support for the winner. With a clear run Paloma Blue looks an almost certain graded races performer in time. You’d have to like Ballyoisin the way he attacks his fences, particularly given he took a pearler recently and showed no ill effects. Could see him holding his own in the Powers Gold cup. Ex Patriot didn’t earn many punting friends on the Flat (myself included) but he showed plenty of willingness today and his size will always be an asset taking on other juveniles. He shouldn’t have much trouble recouping what he cost new connections during the rest of the year. |
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Power Gold Cup is a great shout for Balloisin, as the young jock pointed out on ATR; he really seemed to lengthen after the last. Extremely impressive. Has had a few physical issues obviously. I've found Enda Bolger's handling of Gilgamboa relatively impressive and he seems to peak those circus race horses well every year, really like this lad.
Ball D'Arc finally delivering as well and given how well he thrived off that fast pace today, Grand Annual should suit. I'd basically forgotten about Johnny Burke, has the Potts decision basically ruined him? You'd read a lot that he hasn't quite kicked on. |
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4 winners from 165 rides this year, getting to ride very few good horses, and with his injuries and the likes of Kennedy and David Mullins around it'll be impossible for him to get his foot in the door in Ireland. If he wants to ride a lot of winners he'd have to hope an English trainer takes a chance on him but he's probably better off trying to become a full time commentator, already miles better than Hannon, Des and O'Hehir.
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Has he commentated, I thought he was doing a bit of punditry on ATR not commentating.
Agree, he is probably a victim of the exceptionally high calibre of jock coming through in Ireland. Have read a few on here saying he might have a bottle problem. Ability wise, there wouldn't be nay jockeys in England I would say he should be afraid of. The standard of the lads in Hendersons at the minute is horrendous. STD is passable, Fehily probably a bit past his best. I'd never fancy Richard Johnson needing a jump at the last in a real race; these are the top guys, I'd agree he should tip over and have a look. Even at his best a few years ago, he was never in the league of the likes of Kennedy and Mullins. He seems a really articulate, affable lad, though. Just on jockeys, was talking to my cousin the other week, he said a friend of his died recently and was a huge racing fan; only a young guy. He said a group of them went over to Cheltenham last year with their pal who was terminally ill; said Russell, Walsh and Geraghty all came out and talked tothem outside the weighing room for 10 minutes before the first. The group knew well it would be yer man's last Cheltenham. Thought that was absolute quality on the biggest day of the year nearly. |
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He's commentated on handicap hurdles in Tramore and Cork and acquitted himself well enough, he got those gigs because of his point to point commentaries.
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Neill,that was nice of the lads, puts things into perspective when one so young loses the battle for life, re Burke I think it all came a little to fast for him, no fault of the lads, people hyping him to the last, things went smoothly while he had his claim, then injuries came along, Potts departed these shores and he was left with very little. I honestly think he'll make it,comes from good racing stock and knows the ups and downs of the game,a fine jockey and sure to make his mark in time.
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@GEORGE.B
You occasionally post your notebook horses for a sustained period with full accountability. Lessons to be learned on this approach? |
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Hope he does workrider, seems like a great lad.
Wasn't aware of that CustomCut, I should've have known for the astute nature of your posts that you knew the difference between a commentator and a pundit, my apologies. Anyone think Ball D'Arc could run into a place in the Arkle, race has a history or ordinary horses placing. Wonder might he go in this as its cutting up |
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I think ball d'arc's best form is on soft Neill. He has ran some decent races on a sound surface but his best form has come on soft or heavy and he would need that kind of ground to have any life in an arkle. Looks an interesting ype for the grand annual as you said already though although soft ground would further enhance his chances imo
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Anyviews on top trainer Elliot has big lead but still odds against
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Mullins will farm punchestown as usual and win it in a hack canter. Elliot got his horses ready for October whereas Mullins didn't get them ready until December and can have them still in peak shape post cheltenham.
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The only thing to favour Elliot would be the big lead plus he has plenty of ammunition this time so will have multiple entries in handicaps
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I think Johnny Ward wrote an article about this in the last couple of weeks and it was very informative. Given the amount of prize money available @ Punchestown, if Mullins wins as many races there as he usually does it would be almost impossible for Elliot to beat him. I think it said there was something €2.5million in prize money @ the festival and Mullins has his horses in peak condition for those spring festivals given that he only unleashes his big guns in December. It is much more difficult for Elliot to have his horses in top condition at that time of the year when they are started off in October/November. The fact is Elliot could well go into Punchestown leading and Mullins could still blow him out of the water if he wins half the amount of races he usually wins there.
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very informative thanks
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@ RoyalAcademy
My own criticism of my own thread would be: far too many EW bets, too may speculative selections, and perhaps giving horses one or two chances too may. If I were to do the thread again, concentrate on win betting only (save the odd exception at huge odds), be more selective, and apply the points system better to reflect the level of my confidence behind a selection. I did see your post on the other thread, words of wisdom, wouldn't want to argue with any of it! |
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Post 2pm handicap hurdle Phillip Enright said he got the winning ride as it was Paddy Mangan's discard. Mangan rode The Grey Guy for Brian O'Keefe and might drop a pound or two for this. A muddy day in Thurles or Clonmel and near enough 90 might see him go close.
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