Irish Sports
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
It is like an Irish racing diet after the glut of the festive period,while Dundalk isn't to everyones liking and maybe more so tomorrow giving an overall very competitive looking card, there is one big aye or nay to me there.
Walkabout 8.00
The big nay is drawn 12,it tried to overcome a wide one last time and couldn't,it was left plum last and ultimateily had a hampered run in the straight though it was in all likelyhood too far back in any case.
A smaller Nay would be the slight drop in trip from last time.
The yes's stack up,bar the top 3 to me(i think i am even stretching that) the rest look so moderate.
Dangerous to go on hurdle form but how good does the beating of Duke Cass look now?
I thought even after getting checked twice last time he ran on really well with a lot left.
Was better than 5/2-11/4 but still a decent price imo,a yes for me,though very possible hoping for a bit of luck from draw and a more positve ride.
Walkabout 8.00
The big nay is drawn 12,it tried to overcome a wide one last time and couldn't,it was left plum last and ultimateily had a hampered run in the straight though it was in all likelyhood too far back in any case.
A smaller Nay would be the slight drop in trip from last time.
The yes's stack up,bar the top 3 to me(i think i am even stretching that) the rest look so moderate.
Dangerous to go on hurdle form but how good does the beating of Duke Cass look now?
I thought even after getting checked twice last time he ran on really well with a lot left.
Was better than 5/2-11/4 but still a decent price imo,a yes for me,though very possible hoping for a bit of luck from draw and a more positve ride.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 34
|
By:
Pa it looks a good thing. I'm after timing but managed to get a few euro at 4/1 with Powers around 5pm. Hopefully he is held up in a strongly run race.
|
|
By:
Surely will get a better ride, strong pace will be a big plus alright,
Kick feckin a$$ Gordon |
|
By:
I thought Lucent Dream was a bit of an eyecatcher lto, shaping like going back up in distance is going to suit.
Presumably he's been a bit of a disappointment to connections, cuz having not been cheap at 50,000 euros, he was well backed on all his three starts in 2014, but failed to deliver. He wasn't then seen for over two years, but the second run back certainly suggested he should be up to winning one of these, and he looks to have plenty of physical scope, so maybe he's needed time to fill his frame. He wasn't dropped for that latest run but has Oisin Orr's claim to help this time. He hasn't been missed in the market at 9-2, but as ever on the AW circuit, market reference close to the off is essential! Good luck with your picks. |
|
By:
I like Cocoa Beach in the 6.30. Bought by David Spratt who never seems to make a bad purchase, he ran alright considering he was extremely weak in the market on debut for Ger Lyons. With Keane choosing him above Ellaria I think he might show considerable improvement tomorrow and is a great bet at 10/1. A few of these are wrong at the weights which should be a help. Spratt's other horse Mawaany looks the best favourite on the card at 7.30, but I prefer to avoid short odds on horses I know little about. My other bet on the card is The Dancing Lord. When trained in Ireland he had a great record at Dundalk, and has become very well handicapped (if retaining old ability) during his time with obscure English trainer Adam West. Now having his first start for Liam Cusack (who has a very decent record in handicaps) I think he has a good chance of returning to form and winning at 11/1.
|
|
By:
Lucent Dream now a 2-1 / 9-4 shot, hope connections haven't missed the price!
|
|
By:
Nice write up CustomCut, good luck.
|
|
By:
Lucent Dream has been punted on 3 different occasions. His trainer would be in the Philip Rothwell class of training. Whether it wins or not, you would need your head examined backing it.
|
|
By:
Would you not rate Rothwell as a trainer?
|
|
By:
Well I suppose it depends what you are looking for. If you want plenty of letters beside your horses name then Philip is your man.
|
|
By:
Whether it wins or not, you would need your head examined backing it.
I'd suggest that if you can get 9-2 for a horse that more than halves in price, no matter who trains it, you're doing well, cuz the only thing left to decide is whether to green up or not! I don't know much about the trainer tbh, but looking at his stats, not great admittedly, but the run of this particular horse caught the eye lto, and in what isn't a great race, he should be able to go close if coming on again from that second run back. |
|
By:
Obviously if you can get 9/2 and lay it a 9/4, its a no brainer. Im talking about its current price. This horse will drift out to 5+ on the exchanges tonight.
|
|
By:
walkabout into 2/1..what made you fancy this one bws ..pa..
|
|
By:
Rated 115 over hurdles and 56 on flat. That alone would make me fancy him. Throw in the fact that he has only run once for Elliot on the flat(First run after a break and not put into it.) Elliott would normally improve horses from a poor trainer like JJ Murphy by at least 15-20 pounds.
All the above into account he will be rated 70+ within the next 2 months. |
|
By:
Great shout, CustomCut, VWD
|
|
By:
That's the way to do it Custom Cut, very good.
|
|
By:
Good shout from Custom Cut.
|
|
By:
There was something really good about this thread today and the insights brought to a very innocuous sand meeting in early January.
Well done |
|
By:
This quote from Stephen Mahon tonight really caught my eye:
I can't understand how she's that price as she's beaten them before. She was a bit stiff after she ran here the last night. Joanna Morgan was the making of me as she got me a job with Matty McCormack when I was 19. He was the best trainer I ever worked for, and he could get a donkey to win a seller. We were drawn wide tonight and she jumped smart which is a trick I learned from Matty. He was great at getting his two-year-olds to get out quick. She loves to have something coming at her and kept on really well. Not often we get a nugget that there's more to training than just feeding, riding and pointing them in the right direction. |
|
By:
Cheers lads, I'm backing this Mawaany now, Lyons team seems in good form tonight. Ran poorly on his last start in Britain but his second last run in a maiden worked out extremely well and if Lyons has been able to teach him to break a bit better he should definitely win, even if he continues to break poorly he should have too much for these.
|
|
By:
^ Some collapse in price just before off, gl
|
|
By:
Well done Custom , smashing stuff.
|
|
By:
Bizarre market, Mawaany significantly drifted then backed off the boards. The Invisible Dog looked a blatant non trier having traded for 4 figures at 5.0 pre race all the way out to 13.8 at the off but not a bit of it just got chinned. I was on Mawaany at 2.78.
|
|
By:
Looked like he was going to be a blatant non trier that is.
|
|
By:
Great stuff from Custom Cut.
On a much lower level good market reading by Bigwillystyle with regards the price of Lucent Dream,i will probably back him now. |
|
By:
I'd say I'm the only one losing tonight in Dundalk.
I hope this will all change now with Song Of The Sky,I think she is way above these. |
|
By:
Oh dear,I should have just followed the money.
Three from tonight are. Easy Boy got no run in the 5.30 Khabaray in he 7.30 travelled like a dream obviously needed the run. Hello Humphrey in the 8,30 left a fair bit looks a sure fire winner next time out. |
|
By:
A bit of a shocker from my selection, not had a chance to have another look back at it yet, but it seemed the pace held up and not much from behind got into it, so maybe he and the Elliott horse may be worth another chance when it looks as though there be more of a pace to run at.
But certainly has a bit to prove after that. It seems The Dancing Lord caught a few eyes, and the betting beforehand predicted there may be another day for him. |
|
By:
. Duchessofflorence (GB) BIG EYECATCHER FOR ME IN 8PM
|
|
By:
One I put up on Wildman's earlier Dundalk thread is back out tomorrow, Captain K, returned to the C/D for the first time since the 'notebook' run; he's been a bit disappointing since but wasn't disgraced last time behind the 'amazing' Athassel (by Dalakhani and never looked like a 6f horse in Ireland?
 ); a relatively quick return here, and with the booking of Denis Linehan's valuable 7lb claim for Menelik worrying me, think I might just watch from the sidelines! |
|
By:
However, here's one I prepared earlier for Saturday's AW action
A speculative small stakes EW (Un)lucky 15 on 4 at working men's prices! 3.30 Ling Tommy's Geal 12/1, might be one for when she's back down to class 6 company, but hasn't been shaping too badly of late and may nick a place at least. 5.45 Wolv Weardiditallgowrong 9-1: has form here and I thought the jockey booking was interesting - Denis Linehan's first UK ride; obviously he may be here for the more likely Menelik, but perhaps the market near to the off will reveal more! 6.15 Idol Deputy 33-1, below form the last twice, but loves it here and the run 3 starts back suggested he wasn't gone at the game just yet! 7.15 Foylesideview 16-1, not been in the same form so far this winter as he was the last one, but not disgraced last time when chasing after subsequent winner Nonchalant might have done for him, but if he's ridden more conservatively, could give him an EW squeak. Good luck with yours! |
|
By:
wildmanfromborneo
06 Jan 17 20:39 Three from tonight are. Easy Boy got no run in the 5.30 Khabaray in he 7.30 travelled like a dream obviously needed the run. Hello Humphrey in the 8,30 left a fair bit looks a sure fire winner next time out. norn iron 06 Jan 17 23:28 Duchessofflorence (GB) BIG EYECATCHER FOR ME IN 8PM Well done Wildman and Norm, 7-1 and 11-2 winners from the 3 'notebook' horses that ran tonight. |
|
By:
^ A quick return on the above couple,both could defy a penalty as well.
Obvious eyecatchers from last night to me were Specific Gravity and Cocau Beach,wouldnt give up on Split The Atom either. As well handicapped as Walkabout looks on last nights Wolverhampton evidence looks to be up against getting an AW race,travelled well but again a disappointing finishinng effort, At least another 2f/2m looks his best chance. |
|
By:
Very easy again for Duchessofflorence.(Norn
 )Specific Gravity got his reward for consistency and has a look of an ew horse anytime he runs. Catchy Lass could easily follow up again in another claimer,her mark looks a bit high in handicaps. Nice debut from Lyons Tuff Love,got the hang late on and a maiden is immenient. Pre race Guanabara Bay looked as if the drop in trip to 6f was against him while it was a poor enough 45-65 he would still be worth a look at even outside that class and looks as if a mile would suit also. A few to avoid. He's Our Music, seems to need an uncontested lead. Red Avenger, doesn't seem to get 10f, twice now has reared in the stalls. Split the Atom, every chance in a weak race,disappointing one paced run. |
|
By:
Something about Saturdays and the real possibility of being told to retire again to the leaba.
Only looking again at the replays and saw Tuff Love got up in that photo,well i never! i,d have lost whatever i have if i was a photo backer, specsavers here i come. |