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pa lapsy
07 Oct 16 12:25
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Date Joined: 06 Apr 09
| Topic/replies: 12,639 | Blogger: pa lapsy's blog
It is a tough race but no doubt come 4.55 Sunday i've complete faith in the Irish forum to have a shortlist of contenders .

My thoughts on a few,

Pyromanic, fav because of the trainer and his ability to get big race winners,not really for me though taking this up rather than the English equivilent thought though he stayed he didn't really quicken behind stable mate Quick Jack last time. Benkei has a nice weight turnaround on that running.
Swamp Fox
Transformed since wearing blinkers i couldn't put anyone off him,Joesph Murphy is hoping he has a Cheltenham horse and hard to argue he hasn't on his last few runs.
Theos Well
I think Jennies Jewel will as per usual set a decent pace, this fella will be held up and needs that, a chance maybe not classy enough,should hold Hidden Universe.
Laws of Spin
Though just a 3yo this has shown rapid improvement when upped in distance, at a current 20/1 would be my pick, not often a WPM is at that price, another i think that will be suited by i presume the pace Jennies will give to the race. Beat Romanesque very comfortably last time and thought 7lb was a little lenient. Really surprised at this price.

Same comment as last in the 8.30 in Dundalk this evening,Lightning Striks can travel deceptively easy at times but even still the 5/1 on him and 2/1 on Reddot Express should be a lot closer,very little between them on last run.

Have a good weekend, day 5 after giving up the smokes and in good form myself, jaysus it can be done!!
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Report Hubert October 8, 2016 12:40 PM BST
Agree on laws of spin.

What breaks does a 3 year old get in this race?.. official rating of 89 but racing off 78 tomorrow!
Report pa lapsy October 8, 2016 1:39 PM BST
Cradle Mountain a year older has same rating but 11lb more to carry Hubert,Magnolia Rose though a filly has 11lb as well,i always thought twas about 7lb,no harm to check up on that myself sometime.

You got Martin right yesterday, know his 2(particulary Moonmeister) aren't drawn great but they could run well all the same.
Report frank60 October 8, 2016 3:06 PM BST
Tough race to sort out PA, Good luck with the smokesHappy
Report pa lapsy October 8, 2016 6:20 PM BST
Still going strong Frank, normally light up if i had a bet in a race but managing that well, the 1st 3 days were murder but down to just a few real brain screamer cig shouts today.

Looks likely to go off in single figures now, we'll be dead optimistic and say twas an easy race after all to sort.Grin
Report neill d October 9, 2016 12:01 AM BST
Have always felt Automated had one of these in him. Think 2 miles with cut on a big track like the Curragh where his momentum is less likely to be checked is exactly what he needs
Report pa lapsy October 9, 2016 10:22 AM BST
Respect Elliott but not sure that having a few running is necessarily a good thing Neill(imo).
Interesting young apprentice in Sheedy though,notice Keatley has used him in some of his few rides to date and will be looking how he gets on in the very trappy 3.15, best of luck.
Report newapproach October 9, 2016 10:33 AM BST
I like Artful Artist in this @ 14/1. I think the more galloping track plus the fast pace(hopefully) will suit the horse down to the ground.
Report workrider October 9, 2016 10:38 AM BST
Can't be having these calvery charges myself in all truth , but Willies was very impressive @ leop and should love the extra distance , no play for me . Steller Mass might be the only bet I'll have there today .
Report one last chance October 9, 2016 7:40 PM BST
Well done laws of spin backers
Report wildmanfromborneo October 9, 2016 10:29 PM BST
It doesn't matter whether Pa Lapsy is smoking or not he never let's you down.
Brilliant analysis of the Cesarewitch,the spotting of a price mistake and another long priced winner.

Pa Lapsy must like the Cesarewitch as I remember him napping Voleuse De Coeurs when she sluiced up in the mud some years back.

Laws Of Spin has been trained for this race for a long time,significant jockey booking as well,can't wait to see him jump a hurdle.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan October 9, 2016 10:34 PM BST
Willie Mullins took the Cesarewitch for the second successive year (won last year's renewal with Digenta), as his well-backed Laws Of Spin landed the spoils under Chris Hayes. A winner of his last two starts at Ballinrobe and Leopardstown, the son of Lawman was briefly available at 20/1 last night with Paddy Power.
That price was quickly snapped up, and he opened on-course at 15/2, touching 8's, before going off a 7/1 in the colours of owners the Hourihane O'Brien Partnership.

Settled in mid-division, he improved into a closer fifth as they entered the straight. He was soon pushed along on the outer, and was ridden to lead with over a furlong to go, staying on well from there to score by a length and a quarter.
Cradle Mountain (20's to 16's) kept on well to take second under Donnacha O'Brien for his brother Joseph, while Swamp Fox was a further half a length back in third under Wayne Lordan for Joe Murphy at 7/1. Artful Artist (12/1) completed the placings a further two and three parts of a length back in fourth under Shane Foley for Tony Martin, while the 6/1 joint-favourites Pyromaniac and Magnolia Rose were seventh and nineteenth respectively.

Patrick Mullins said afterwards: "That was the plan - it has been the plan all season and it was great to get him in off such a low weight.
"He's very tough. It looked like he got headed a furlong out but he pulled it out again. It was a perfect ride from Chris. We told him to keep it simple . He's riding very well so we left it to him to do the rest of the game plan. He stays very well and might jump a hurdle but today was the plan and we haven't thought beyond this. We'll talk to the owner now. It's fantastic to win such a good race."

WD pa & Hubert...seems the 'calvery charge' is to the bookies - "jaysus it can be done!!"
Report pa lapsy October 9, 2016 11:35 PM BST
Thanks, welcome back Wildman.
Good effort, Hubert in fairness replied and think he knew what i was on about, i hope he did well with it, Newsapproach had a 14/1 place so nicely covered race overall.


Poor enough reporting Catchme from ir.com, the "briefly available at 20/1 last night with PP", that 20/1 was available from decs Friday to mid Saturday afternoon,ie not far off 30 hours,that is the truth.


Spirit of Valour had some eyecatching debut,i hope to see that before seasons end.
Stellar Mass ran the way the betting said it would,love to know what happened there.
Report huddys October 10, 2016 6:56 AM BST
Brilliant tipping welll done lads,
Report Ozymandius October 10, 2016 8:07 AM BST
Well done, Pa.
Report neill d October 10, 2016 10:58 AM BST
Nice one Pa
Report frank60 October 10, 2016 1:37 PM BST
N1 Pa, i backed Magnolia Rose at 16/1  on saterday night going great until he seemed to break down in the straight, Sad
Report workrider October 10, 2016 6:57 PM BST
Another wonder winner for Pa , well done .
Report Catch Me ifyoucan October 10, 2016 7:52 PM BST
Pa, here's a bet for you - IF you stay of the **** ! and I wish you do - presume your a 20-a-day man - put a tenner a day in a jar/or a nifty 50 every week - I'll add a 10% profit to it after a year (or donate to a charity of your choice) - you will enjoy watching your pot grow - a nice holiday next Christmas maybe !

I'm sure others would gladly contribute their 10% to your cause. "jaysus it can be done!!" Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan October 10, 2016 7:52 PM BST
fa gs
Report pa lapsy October 10, 2016 8:28 PM BST
Haha, it might be the ould craic cocaine for all ye know.

Seriously about 25 a day, not the price really as always went over to the continent 2 times a year, the tax used to get on me goat and maybe with brexit that will shortly be gone anyway.
I enjoyed smoking but accept it isn't a nice habit, a lot of years smoking and it was catching up anyway, herself was worried and said she'd give up as well,(she lasted a day and a half but only smoked about 8 a day anyway,now down to 4).
Catchme it is a kind of a personal thing, i probably shouldn't have mentioned it but was a bit elated at my progress, i was a 100/1 shot, if anyone else was thinking of trying to give up, even after a week i feel a lot better chestwise and hands were a bit arthrithic but not a blessed bit since.
I said to herself after Laws of Spin yesterday if she wanted a few days somewhere book it,she couldn't get on the computer fast enough and 3 nights in Ljubljana( never heard of it) is on the cards on Sunday.

Sound for the "well dones" on the thread, not really going brilliantly for a while though not shocking either,i got a kick out of it, it was a terrible job by the odds compilers.
Report kavvie October 10, 2016 9:22 PM BST
nice to spot one thats priced wrong..thats what the games about really ,spotting value.it would be great if we had patience to wait for one like laws of spin  but patience isnt most punters strong point..
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