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mrcombustible
10 Aug 16 07:17
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Date Joined: 18 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 4,989 | Blogger: mrcombustible's blog
Julian Muscat has a piece in today's post talking about Caravaggio.

He makes the point that Ballydoyle 2yo's that dominate the Guineas betting  fall into two categories. Those that train on and those that don't.

The ones that train on are by Coolmore stallions that have raced on turf whereas the failures are by American stallions and Caravaggio(Scat Daddy) is in the latter group.

The failures are Air Force Blue,War Command, One Cool Cat,Hold That Tiger, Johannesberg, Minardi, Rossini and Oprpen.

The successful group are Gleneagles,Camelot,Mastercraftsman,George Washington,Oratorio,Rock Of Gibraltar and King Of Kings.
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Report neill d August 10, 2016 1:51 PM BST
Interesting, there possibly is something in that as one can notice that Coolmore aren't producing the robust type of Classic campaigners they had been in recent years since the end of Danehill Dancer and Monntjeu. Like their class of 09' which they threw at Sea the Stars every race and every race they seemed to run to form.

Not training on in a horse, I presume is defined as either going backward or staying at the same level of their 2yo form, usually after having enjoyed some kind of physical advantage that speeded up the horse's development at two.

Hard not to argue that all of the above fall into that category, although you can get some like War Command, who in getting beaten by 3 and a 1/4 lengths by Kingman at 3 and not having much real substance to his form to begin with, might just have been not very good.

I'd be nearly sure Air Force Blue has a breathing problem of some sort (from the way he is running), now his form might not amount to much, but in the manner of his wins, he set himself apart from those rivals more than something like War Command I think. I wouldn't like to say he didn't train on more that he has succumbed to some physical problem independent of just not getting better. He was an early developer at two so maybe he hasn't though.

Caravaggio is such a good physical specimen, such a handsome horse from what you'd read and hear. that one would have to be a little surprised if he didn't train on. I could see them going easy on him and go Commonwealth Cup and then July Cup as they really need not to mess this guy up (no early Guineas deadlines, doing hard work in **** weather and just asking him to do what clearly comes pretty naturally to him already). The fact he is a Scat Daddy rather than a War Command might be a positive?

Of the above mentioned success stories, he reminds me of George Washington in the way they remark about his looks and his Curragh runs. I'd say the Coolmore Stallion roster would've had an entirely different complexion had GW not been sub-fertile. They've never really replaced what he would have brought. For once, I'd have no doubts that he would've been an amazing stallion.
Report brain dead jockeys August 10, 2016 8:29 PM BST
he is a sprinter.......end of discussion
Report kincsem August 10, 2016 9:16 PM BST
mrcombustible
He makes the point that Ballydoyle 2yo's that dominate the Guineas betting  fall into two categories. Those that train on and those that don't.


those that train on
milers who get a mile.

those that don't train on
sprinters who got 6f as 2yo and also got 6f as 3yos
Report Vubiant September 13, 2016 10:48 PM BST
Doubt Churchill has the speed necessary for a 2000 Gns. -especially if ground on fast side. While the manner of his wins is visually impressive the value of the bare form is questionable.
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