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pa lapsy
18 May 16 11:00
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Date Joined: 06 Apr 09
| Topic/replies: 499 | Blogger: pa lapsy's blog
I hate to use the words "Good Thing" but surely Galileo Gold falls into that category, think the current 7/4 is a great price.
It was a very emphatic victory at Newmarket where AO'B,s Air Vice Marshall and Air Force Blue were well beat as was Herald The Dawn, while accept Aidens can bounce back after disappointing there looks such a big turnaround here and fin it hard to see myself. Bolgers Sanus Per Aquam looks held on Air Force Blue running.
I won't dismiss either Awtaad or Blue de Viga(possibly turn the Tetrach form around) but overall this is a different level to what both have shown so far.
Hugo Palmer is bullish in regards Galileo's Gold well being and not too worried if the forecast rain arrives.
Anyone against it?

In the 1000 Ballydoyle looks the likely winner though seems short enough to me,i wouldn't have a strong opinion on the race.

This evening thought Easy Boy's last run was quite eyecatching,and seems a fair ew at 4/1.
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Report Rocketfingers May 18, 2016 10:43 PM BST
One bet for me Now or Never at 7/2, going in big on this one and there is rain promised over the next few days which will help her and fingers crossed that we will some cut.
Report pa lapsy May 19, 2016 9:18 AM BST
Fair point regarding the forecast rain, currently good to firm and good in places in the straight.
If it did turn easier it would be a negative for Ballydoyle who has only good to firm form.
If the heavens opened altogether and it turned out very soft i wouldn't rule the supplemented Jet Setting at a best of 20/1.
Thought she was travelling very well at Newmarket and was going to be involved but not sure what happened,found zero, but back to the the trial at Leopardstown(heavy) while Now or Never was making seasonal debut it was a comprehensive 3 lths beating by Keatlys filly.
Certainly the weather looks to play a part alright in this.
Report callitasucit May 20, 2016 12:31 AM BST
What price would Galileo Gold be if APOB trained it??

And it was heading to the Curragh as 'the best miler I have trained'??

2-5?
Report brain dead jockeys May 20, 2016 1:25 AM BST
spot on callit...........he would be his best miler ever.......even greater than his last best miler ever...........erm glenagles
Report dyno-layer May 20, 2016 9:43 AM BST
Minding In ...ballydoyle out i think
Report pa lapsy May 20, 2016 9:47 AM BST
Micheal O' Callaghan issued upbeat reports on his runners describing Now Or Never "with a massive" chance" and Bleu de Vega has "come on a lot for his first run and is very well".
Rain forecast this evening and tonight with the words it could be heavy at times,worst case i've seen is 12mm, while guessing i think the ground will at race time be yielding in the straight anyway.
With the 2000 and what is left they all seem to be hold up horses,likely Aiden will nominate one of his for pacemaker duty but my way of thinking it would suit him not to,while i still believe Galileo Gold is by far and away the best horse,i think there is a fair possibility of a slow pace tactical affair.
Report pa lapsy May 20, 2016 9:56 AM BST
You are right Dyno Layer, Tony O'Hehir reported it 20 minutes ago.

What a joke, Aidens weather forecast must be more accurate than mine.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 20, 2016 11:39 AM BST
It would be a huge help if forumites living near the Curragh gave us updates.

Now Or Never is ground dependent,doubt if she will run if it doesn't bucket down.
Blue De Vega is less so but still needs some cut.
Report winsamsoon May 20, 2016 12:10 PM BST
It's the Curragh and they haven't been watering. If it starting p1ssing now and didn't stop til racetime, the ground still wouldn't be any worse than good
Report neill d May 20, 2016 2:58 PM BST
Find it interesting that they are persisting with Air Force Blue after such a blow-out. Might be the publicity hangover from Gleneagles but AFB was as good a 2yo as you'll ever see and could have retired on that after the Newmarket hames with the citation of some little issue, ie. not that serious but wll miss summer ground and we need him on the farm so won't see him at 4!

At around 5/2 I've backed him. Ground is in his favour and I could see them hammering him so that should he win, it looks like it was expected. Mile won't be a problem and the fact that AOB was citing that before and after the Guineas might half anwser an earlier thread on here as to why he ain't that popular. Chance that they've caught up with him physically (had big advantages at 2), or he has a breathing issue, nut as I don't think he'd be here is that was the case.

Some thoughts on this evening,

7:40 Stratford: Could se MARITO murdering these in the Champion Hunters. Had he not been down the pecking order with WPM for so much of his prime, I think his career might have been of an even higher trajectory. Presume they'll have the surface very safe at Stratford and still reckon 7/4 is okay value. He's been running into an ATG Hunter this spring and he once finished second in a Morgiana Hurdle ffs!

6:25 Downpatrick: AUTHORIZED CADEAUX, should be okay on a piece of maiden hurdle form, fared much better in sixth at Punchestown last week after no-showing for a while. Excellent trainer and jockey combo and a few of the others fancied look weaker in the betting than I'd thought.

6:55 Downpatrick: Seems to be the day with AINSLIE with the second best trainer and jock combo. What looked main danger on paper mightn't be a factor according to betting. Probably not ready.

7:25 Downpatrick: ARAGLEN LAD, has a great chance in this on a bit of form here last year.


8:35 Cork: LIKE A STAR 11/8 , related to Battle of Marengo who I never liked out of smart Anna Karenina. They'll be mad to get a win into this and 3yo maidens are gradually getting weaker as season wears on. Weld horse must have had an issue to have missed so much time after debuting in high-summer.

8:05: BUZZ OFF BAROSO, WTF is this doing in Mullins yard if it can't win a race like this.

6:35 Cork: VICTORIAS SECRET, Stacks have started slower than usual and it might be to this filly's credit that she managed a good second on seasonal return at Dundalk.

7:05 Cork: CAPPODOCIA, was rated much higher (a stone I think) for Mick Channon who basically can't train! Pissed in last time. More to come.
Report neill d May 20, 2016 10:29 PM BST
Thank **** twas anandoned. Couldnt have taken any more punishment. Living up to my John McChronic moniker.
Report wildmanfromborneo May 21, 2016 8:37 AM BST
This looks a great Guineas to me

Sanus Per Aquam is far too big a price and a cracking each way bet with the dead eight.

Lets hope Michael OCallaghan doesn't withdraw Blue De Vega.
Report pa lapsy May 21, 2016 9:29 AM BST
Good,Good to Yielding in the straight is the latest update.

Agree it is a cracking little race and a case can be made for most,despite relative weakness and unsure of where the pace is coming from i,m still with Galileo Gold.
Plan B is to hope Alveena shows a bit more improvement to justify the class rise.


Best of Luck all,nice thread and fair play to the contributers.
Report workrider May 21, 2016 9:47 AM BST
A real eyecatcher for me the last day at Naas was Magical Fire ,a fine big filly , she was given a nice intro having duffed the start , shes sure to come on a lot for that and is taken to overcome the Ballydoyle brigade .
Carravagio also took the eye on its last run and looks a real speed ball .
Galileo Gold looks the winner ,what might have been and what was, swing the pendelum in this fellows favour .
Good luck all punters...
Report pa lapsy May 21, 2016 3:53 PM BST
I did back that Magical Fire @ 5.1 this morning, fav gets pulled and have a 3.6 bet with last price showm here 6.0,
poor advert for exchanges.
Given there was thunder no surprised to see she played up,wonder if it is a trait though, was delighted she withdrew.

With the ground worsening all the time,AO'B is considering not running Air force Blue according to c4.
Report punchestown May 21, 2016 7:32 PM BST
Best horse won but not Dettori's best ride..
Report workrider May 21, 2016 7:50 PM BST
I agree Punchestown , tried to get up the inside of one of APOBs ,no way that was going to be allowed ,Coolemore don't want the Arabs winning . He got a few thumps off it as well .
Report pa lapsy May 21, 2016 8:25 PM BST
Yes,it was some performance and suggested he improved a fair bit judging by the gap to Bleu de Viga.
Galileo Gold didn't look the same horse that was at Newmarket,poor enough ride but as you say beaten by a better one.
Report workrider May 21, 2016 8:53 PM BST
Pa I backed GG, had a look at him in the paddock ,thought he looked fine , went and had my bet , first show I saw was 5/4 one bookie went 5/6 . Came back from the paddock and saw plenty of 11/8 finally 6/4 which I took . It was only after the race a friend came up to me and said what a cracker of a race he'd run ,needless to say I asked him what he meant . He said he was sweating up badly in the paddock and got very excited ,I never saw ANY of this , please confirm that was the case if you can. Reminded me of having a look at JFK in the paddock at Leop and going and backing him only to be told that he'd gone bonkers in the paddock .
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR May 21, 2016 9:05 PM BST
Developed a fifth leg in the parade ring beforehand, created a bit of a stir among the crowd and some awkward questions for the parents there with their Communion kids...
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR May 21, 2016 9:05 PM BST
Developed a fifth leg in the parade ring beforehand, created a bit of a stir among the crowd and some awkward questions for the parents there with their Communion kids...
Report workrider May 21, 2016 9:18 PM BST
Laugh
Report pa lapsy May 21, 2016 9:19 PM BST
Thanks lads, been the ruin of many a good man, them kids will remember Galileo Gold for a long time but not the right reason.
Report workrider May 21, 2016 9:36 PM BST
Remember as a lad in the National Stud there was a mare been covered , and a nun bless her, decided it was the right time to bring a class of 12yo girls into the covering area . I often wondered did any MAN ever meet their expections after what they saw that morning...Laugh
Report punchestown May 21, 2016 11:05 PM BST
Got a bit uptight alright in the proceedings but I thought it settled a bit better than at Newmarket but was not helped by being boxed in throughout today and buffeted when trying to get a run,winner traveled like a dream all the same.
Report frank60 May 21, 2016 11:31 PM BST
There were a group of young women watching G.G. going around the parade ring in front of me W/R ,talk about dirty laughs,  i made a nice few bob backing Rubys  2 winners in france,Happy but gave most of it back afterwards .Sad
Report workrider May 21, 2016 11:51 PM BST
Well done Frank , it just goes to show , been in the right place at the right time can pay dividends...
Report wildmanfromborneo May 21, 2016 11:54 PM BST
I think you were unlucky Pa.
Galileo Gold got coltish in the parade ring and sweated up,when you see a horse sweating up on a miserable day like today its a huge problem.
He also didnt look well in himself.

I fully intended backing Sanus Per Aquam on arriving at the Curragh the heavens opened,it then rained intermittently,ground was soft.
I ended up backing my old friend Blue De Vega,ran well enough but he had his ground and went backwards in comparison to Awtaad.

Caravaggio won the Marble Hill despite hating the ground all the way up the straight,this American bred has Royal Ascot written all over him.

Somebody backed Brave Anna in the first although Seamie Heffernan mustn't have known about as he waited behind How and only made his move when Lady Beware started to get the upper hand.
Report pa lapsy May 22, 2016 9:44 AM BST
Felt a bit more "unlucky" with the 10/3 i got on Alveena Wildman,got the benefit of the photo a few times lately but the line was just in the wrong place for that one.

Not being smart or anything here Rocket but supposing you did indeed do Now Or Never at the time the thread went up.
Say you backed her EW at the 7/2 quoted.
Through no fault of your own you are now on a 7/1 shot
How do the books sort that,surely in fairness interest you should get the 7/1 as the parameters changed?
Report wildmanfromborneo May 22, 2016 9:59 AM BST
The parameters could also change the other way.

If Minding didnt run Now Or Never would be vying for favouritism.

Mind you 7/2 was always going to be a shocking ante post price about a ground dependent filly.
She's got her ground and is now 8/1 if she hadn't got her ground she wouldn't have run.
Report pa lapsy May 22, 2016 10:10 AM BST
I accept they could change in your favour but still think there is a bit of unfairness though it isn,t the books fault.

The very few Ballydoyle backers are out.

The whole shape of the race changed with the swopping of O'Briens, Now Or Never backers would nearly certainly be ew rather than win.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan May 22, 2016 1:11 PM BST
CURRAGH on RTE Now

http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/live/10/
Report Catch Me ifyoucan May 22, 2016 1:25 PM BST
Wd Wayne on Van Der Decken.....was 66/1 yesterday !
Report Catch Me ifyoucan May 22, 2016 1:26 PM BST
Purchased for only 52k !
Report Catch Me ifyoucan May 22, 2016 1:28 PM BST
Half-brother to King Of Speed, won three times at 7f.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan May 22, 2016 1:43 PM BST
2000 - NOT a great race for favourites  - last 10 running 6,1,7,1,3,2,4,1,2,2.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan May 22, 2016 2:02 PM BST
Jet Setting costs 12k !
Report Catch Me ifyoucan May 22, 2016 2:10 PM BST
pa lapsy  • May 19, 2016 9:18 AM BST
Fair point regarding the forecast rain, currently good to firm and good in places in the straight.
If it did turn easier it would be a negative for Ballydoyle who has only good to firm form.
If the heavens opened altogether and it turned out very soft i wouldn't rule the supplemented Jet Setting at a best of 20/1.
Thought she was travelling very well at Newmarket and was going to be involved but not sure what happened,found zero, but back to the the trial at Leopardstown(heavy) while Now or Never was making seasonal debut it was a comprehensive 3 lths beating by Keatlys filly.
Certainly the weather looks to play a part alright in this.


SPOT ON PA
Report pa lapsy May 22, 2016 2:11 PM BST
ssssch WinkCool
Report Meyer Lansky May 22, 2016 3:33 PM BST
Take a bow pa, well done to yourself Happy
Report frank60 May 22, 2016 3:34 PM BST
Hope you backed your  judgement PA, NICE 1,
Report pa lapsy May 22, 2016 3:43 PM BST
Thanks, i had a small bet ew at 16/1,had an absolute stinker yesterday so it righted the ship abit.

Keatley is some boy,seems to be getting the very best out of his horses,off to Ayr(mon) and Hamilton(wed) with a few and they will be worth a closer look.
Report huddys May 22, 2016 3:53 PM BST
Well done pa
Report tony57 May 22, 2016 4:50 PM BST
welldone pa..what a horse that jennies jewel is..
Report pa lapsy May 22, 2016 5:16 PM BST
She is very small but a lovely game thing Tony.

Sound Huddys, was hoping Knox to hole that for ya on the last,bit tough to share in the end but good result for you still.
Report workrider May 22, 2016 6:02 PM BST
Smashing stuff Pa , a huge well done on that .
Report neill d May 22, 2016 6:02 PM BST
WD Pa. Serious filly pulled miles clear. Bad year so far for Coolmore all in all. Anything other than the Gurkha winning the Derby is going to be nloody hard to market. Carravagio looks something at least. Good thing he is a Scat Daddy horse as there is a growing pattern now of the War Front 2yos not going on in Europe.
Report brain dead jockeys May 22, 2016 8:26 PM BST
air force blue woiuldnt even win a 4 furlong handicap teh way he has run so i thnk thats teh end of him............no sign of hit it a bomb yet.............add war command to these two and it could be three war front group 1 horses not training on
Report neill d May 22, 2016 11:33 PM BST
They must be much less cynical than I thought allowing the public to see the champion 2yo run so deplorably. Im finding the constant referencing of the distance extremely puzzling. At no point has he ever looked like he was going to over any trip in his two races so far. Theyre handling of potentially top notchers going back to St Nicholas Abbey has left something to be desired. Australia and Camelot also have had their reputations dented. I understand that is the nature of racing horses but I think every top horse theyve had lately could potentially have been handled better.
Report brain dead jockeys May 22, 2016 11:44 PM BST
st nic went on to win a breeders cup, a sheema classic and 3 coronation cups.........so i have no idea where your going there.
camelot should have been retired after the ledger............they did everything right with australia, he just wasnt that good.
Report neill d May 23, 2016 6:16 PM BST
I know he always says it but he overtrained St Nick for the Guineas, messed him up and he missed the rest of the year. He was very good when he came back but think he lost a bit of spark.

I think ducking Frankel with Camelot all the while proclaiming him to be the best ever was disingenuous considering the chucked everything at Sea the Stars. They probably shouldn't have run him in the Irish Derby either on that ground. He was robbed if the leger but might have taken it with a truly world class jockey on him eking out a bit more. He then had no bussiness coming back into training after the colic operation where he clearly wasn't the same horse.

Jockey error, an extremely cautious wide course cost Australia the Irish Champion. Worse still he was beaten by a chump who has done nothing for the form since. They might have needed him at stud, but I find it strange that they brought back Camelot who had major coluc issues at 4, but not Australia.

I'd definitely say that for the above, these horses could have retired with greater reputations than they ended up going to stud with. It is reflected in Camelot's fee he especially.
Report neill d May 23, 2016 6:17 PM BST
And livking for home too soon; re Australia
Report neill d May 23, 2016 6:17 PM BST
Kicking*
Report Catch Me ifyoucan May 26, 2017 5:48 PM BST
GUESS ITS ALL ABOUT THE ONE TOMORO


13:50 - Equisoft Irish EBF Fillies Maiden 6f
Clemmie(5/2) Now Youre Talking(50) Snowflakes(5) Adaliya(10) Butterscotch(10) Gasta(10) Navajo Dreamer(12) Bye Bye Brussels (14) 16's bar

14:25 - Hanlon Concrete Handicap 6f (3yo plus)
Peticoatgovernment(9) Captain Power(10) Cenotaph(10) Sors(10) G Force(12) Mr Right(12) Palavicini Run(14) Rapid Applause(14) St Brelades Bay(14) 16's bar

15:00 - Cold Move Irish EBF Marble Hill Stakes (Listed) 6f class 1
Brother Bear (15/8) Aqabah(3) Sioux Nation(3) Gold Town(11) US Navy Flag(14) Mount Wellington (16) Would Be King (28)   

15:35 - Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes (Group 2) 6f class 1 (4yo plus)
Acapulco(4/6)    Blue De Vega(13/2) Suedois(8) Mobsta(10) Downforce(14) Gordon Lord Byron(20) Only Mine(20)   

16:10 - Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) 1m class 1
Churchill(7/19)    Irishcorrespondent(11) Lancaster Bomber(11) Thunder Snow(14) Glastonbury Song(50) Spirit of Valor (50)

16:45 - Lanwades Stud Stakes (Group 2) 1m class 1 (4yo plus)
Raymonda(15/8) Turret Rocks(2) Opal Tiara(4) Creggs Pipes(7) Zest(20)   

17:15 - Fbd Hotels & Resorts Faithlegg House Hotel Handicap 1m 4f (3yo plus)
Song Of Namibia(5) Aydoun(13/2) Glamorous Approach(7) Jaqen Hghar(8) To Choose(8) Moonmeister(10) Asangy(12) Derulo(12) Stronger Than Me(14)
Felix Mendelssohn(16) My Direction(16) Spruce Meadows(16) Here For The Craic(20) Hudsons Bay (25).
Report pa lapsy May 26, 2017 7:13 PM BST
I know it is glass half full Ger (Lyons) but he thinks 50/1 poke Glastonbury Song could run well(on ATR),i do as well,i was impressed with the Dundalk win,Asking is only a fair yardstick,she looks a little bit off top class but all the same she was comfortably beat.
I presume Spirit Of Valour will have pace making duties and looked held from Newmarket, Lancaster Bomber probably is as well though not beaten that far,Thunder Snow was behind both and misbehaved in America,doubt he will be good enough. Irish Correspondent could be anything,he hasn't beaten much and i'd have him as "unproven", he enters calculations through the 3rd last time Branch Line, strictly Glastonbury Song should be behind.
Churchill is the obvious choice,i couldn't back it at 1/3,it got the run of the race at Newmarket,2Lths with LancasterBomber(guineas) and same for Thunder Snow(dewhurst) wouldn't be enough for me plus 2 could be anythings.

Not a lot priced in the w/0 market, small ew at 11/1 (PP) on Gers touch of optimism for me.
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