Over rounds at Cheltenham .

Overround on Lincoln today was 134% .

Winner was 58% better price on Betfair than SP , second was 46% better , third was 181% better , fourth was 48% better .

The overnight favourite on the Lincoln at 11/2 drifted from 6.8 to 9 , a 32% drift , yet started at 6/1 .  The bookies have given up wearing masks , and the bigger the race for turnover , the bigger the margins they are using to rob the punters .

Just wonder how big margins they will return next Saturday on the Grand National ?

Your posts show a lack of understanding of the way the betting market and the SP system works.

Traditionally Bookmaker's bet to a margin of 2% per runner.However the norm gradually decreased to 1.5% per runner with increased competition and the advent of Betfair.All the figures you quote are around or within the accepted margin.

Secondly the SP system is used for setting the prices for the off course market.With the place terms available off course Bookmakers are betting well overbroke on the place book even at SP.

Thirdly a large majority of punters will bet at morning/show prices and exceed SP but in addition will have BOG in case it doesn't.

We are just after a Cheltenham where the offers available to punters were mind boggling yet you focus on the negative.It's akin to complaining that your corner shop doesn't have Lidl prices.

In case anyone reads this and thinks I'm an apologist for bookmakers nothing could be further from the truth.They have behaved deplorably both in the case of bet acceptance and dealing with problem gamblers yet you are complaining about SP.In my view it's the wrong topic to be highlighting.

Thanks for the lesson Tolmi . The only criteria on which to judge betting markets is the actual figures involved . 134% needs no explanation , it represents excessive profit , if it applied to a scrap handicap at Catterick it would not be worthy of comment , but applied to the traditional big races it highlights where the bookies are .

The bookies are ripping the ar*e out of their ability to farm the markets  , anyone who cant see that is living in another world .  The ability to set their own prices without any form of regulation is a disgrace , add in their other activities as you mention and the betting industry ( which regulates itself essentially) has become a rip off .  The bigger the race the more attractive it is to them to tighten down margins and take the money off the mugs .

And they are lifting £900 plus per week from each FOBT machine ( their figures) .

Betfair SP on the race in question versus industry SP tells the whole story .

It doesn't actually as Betfair can descend on your account and pilfer 40% of your money.

I should keep it quiet because if the bookies could apply that rule there would be no restrictions on your bets,no knock backs you could bet creation.

Some of the offers at Cheltenham were excellent Tolmi, but were they available to all punters ? And a lot were subject to the finest of print , in fact a lot of their staff did not know the rules and advised incorrectly .

So if my local Mace offers Dromona butter at £1.85 per lb , as against a standard £2.40 it is excellent , but if they restrict that offer to "selected" customers  and refuse to serve me how fair is it , and should they not have to highlight that in their ads ?

Most bookies were giving some offers at Cheltenham , but it was  first time in living memory I did not have a single bet in PP's during the festival , and painting such  a cosy picture as you reference does not fit all the facts .

If the relationship between win and place markets is skewed it is the bookies own fault , they make up the rules , and most of us would have no sympathy for them given that. Place markets in a 22 runner handicap hardly keeps any bookie awake at night . I suspect it will not be long until the bookies change to seperate win and place markets a la exchanges .

Wildman , anyone who has to surrender premium charges to Betfair has the option of using another exchange , which offers approximately the same odds as betfair ( albeit with a built in delay generally ). So I reckon my figures stand up as generally available to anyone with access to the internet.

I went into the biggest bookmakers shop in these isles on Saturday morning and they had only 3 tills operating , on a busy Saturday for racing and football .  Time was there were queues outside some bookies shops in Belfast on a really busy Saturday .  Writing is on the wall for shops I am afraid unless something changes .

The offers available to punters for Cheltenham could I suppose be described as mind-boggling but they werent intended nor available to the normal punter but was a guise to get more mug punters into their parlour. The bookies probably did lose quite a bit at Cheltenham but it wasnt because of the offers but because many well fancied favourites won. I'd imagine most of the new punters who won on the offers have given it all back by now - or they will probably by next Saturday night anyway.

Obviously the "lesson" went straight over your head Kelly.

Comparing SP to Betfair prices is totally disingenuous. Betfair prices are betting to a 100% book.Bookmakers whether you like it or not are running a business and have to generate a gross profit in offer to lay their expenses and make a net profit.Using Betfair prices as a comparison is like a telling a shop to sell goods at the same price they bought them at.For example pubs make close on a 50% margin on their sales which is the equivalent of a 200% book.What's your position on their margins?

A couple of years ago I was at an event in your home city of Belfast.I booked late and paid a hefty price for accomodation as well as hiked up drink prices. I met another person at the hotel who had booked early and paid £60 less for their accomodation. Was I annoyed?..of course I was.Was I surprised?...not at all.In virtually every walk of life someone pays over the odds at big events.The customer betting at SP is the person paying in this instance.At the risk of repeating myself virtually no regular punter is betting at SP.

With regard to the Cheltenham offers I repeat my assertion that they were mind boggling.I suppose it really comes down to whether one is prepared to put in the extra effort to exploit them.A sum of cash,a few trusted and well positioned lieutenants and a bit of thought will do the trick.

In these days of restricted accounts and knock backs the number of people who HAVE to bet at SP ( if they want to back with the bookies) is growing daily .  When someone asks for £20 on a 7/2 shot and is offered £2 , what do they do for the unlaid £18 ? SP the only option unless they have the wit and interest to explore exchange possibilities .

Re Cheltenham offers , each day I was around looking for value on selected races .  PP were continually the lowest prices on offer , and being market leaders it knocks the assertion that offers were "mind boggling" . Dont think I saw even one horse top priced by them in my travels , and it was in contrast to previous years when they did have good offers and competitive pricing .  Reckon the bean counters are winning the internal battle there .

Ladcrooks did have decent offers re free bets( money back if second etc ), subject to stake limitations , and were offering better prices generally than aforementioned firm . Billys were pushing out prices on selected horses , reckon their traders were doing a good job as I cant recall any of those horses winning .  Our locals were keeping things tight all the way , a couple slipped up for a few short priced winners but that balanced out I reckon with losers they also laid in other races .

Trusted lieutenants are not always to be trusted absolutely , one guy I know got knocked for about 10k by a "trusted " friend  of his( who offered every day to do bets for me when I was betting large sums ). I only ever had one friend who I was happy to deal with re betting for me , completely trustworthy and clued in , not many like him in a dozen though.  Anyway generally the value is not out there any more , not compared with yesteryear .

Re bookies , one I still have a ( restricted ) account with is refusing to allow me to access my account unless I send them 3 specific copies of what I regard as personal information --including a photograph .  The account in question dates back 12 years or more , I am on the electoral register at current address ( have been for 22 years now ) and they claim they cannot verify electronically that I am over 18 . Phone call completely unsatisfactory . Guess I will have to take them to court to get my money out .

Any punter betting at SP has given up on making long term profits on his punting.He is only recreational.Either give up or just treat it as a fun way to lose money.

If you can't find anyone to trust then put in the legwork and do it yourself or cultivate a couple of accounts to avail of the offers.I only had a few bets with pp this year mainly because of price and their restrictive place terms which I highlighted at the time.It is hardly the fault of bookmakers making offers that you live in an area that makes it difficult to avail of them.

Cant remember the last time I backed a horse at SP , Tolmi .

Re legwork I put in the hours years ago when there was still value to be had , its just not worth the effort nowadays except during the big meetings .  But increasingly the bookies are adopting restrictive measures .  Anyway I dont need the money now thanks to Betfair mainly .

The fact that the chains came into the picture here locally about 10 years ago is regrettable , given that once upon a time our neck of the woods was one of the most vibrant betting areas in these isles .  A bookies employee with whom I have a close liaison summed it up to me on Saturday when he said " I went into my old office the other day (where he used to work, it was the busiest shop in Belfast for years and years) , and it was like going into a library " . He jumped ship some years ago when the chance came . Writing is on the wall in that respect , the fallout will continue apace . And disgruntled punters will just walk away as they have been doing for some time now . Bookies shops here used to be good craic , particularly at the competitive meetings , now they resemble morgues . And few want to work in a morgue . 

Only future for the betting industry ( apart from resembling betting arcades) is on line in running  , but the time delays for updates  and scalpers are restricting that development . Dont think the bookies will ever be able to compete with person to person betting via the exchanges though .

Good morning Kelly,a few points as i don't agree with the picture you are painting of the exchange.
Just simply looking at it through a different viewpoint and nothing else to it.

Firstly it isn't person to person these days,over 70% of transactions are up against a bot.

Personally know of two accounts where A is in profit of 10k and B in profit of 7k, both are paying 22.5% premium charge.
Both accounts have been here a fair few years with only manual and no advantage, profit would work out way less than the price of a pint a day.
That alone makes any "overround" look generous as the exchange is redunant as a bet cannot be struck at that deficit.
As with books winners not welcome,accept the recreational punter would make his euro/pound last longer alright.

The books can compete to an extent,particulary with bog as a price once taken on the exchange is what you get even if a large drift,r4's are stinking on here to backers.

Things have changed a lot in the last two years,i think and only an opinion that there is so much manipulation on the horse racing markets in particular, whether right or wrong it seems to me such a large amount of the fancied horses or being artificially "cut" here in the minutes before the off and then being allowed to drift back out again. As said just an opinion.

The books are leading the way with racing(not the point whether you can get on or not) the exxchange is only following their lead and unless very late your exchange price will be determined by the books price and oddschecker and the exchange is only trotting after them.

I still reckon the bots as a person, pa . On the picture you paint pa , advice to anyone who wants to punt at SP ( or equivalent) would be to bet at betfair SP .  Dont know the figures , but any investigation I ever do indicates to me that Betfair SP knocks the rump out of industry SP most races , and the more runners in a race the greater the disparity .

The bookies , presumably via their representatives on course  , as you say are cutting the tripe out of shorter priced horses at the off , which is helping to create the over rounds I have quoted .

Most horses fluctuate approximately 20% during the course of betting on most races  , some manipulation maybe going on there due partly to the bot activity ( with which I am not familiar even if I know the principles involved) .

The situation you quote re modest long term profitability on here resulting in premium charging is ridiculous . No idea why the premium charge is not confined to bot operation  , "manual" people should be getting a by ball .  The purple one has not gone down that road , but with the bean counters among their owners looking over their shoulders that may not last . Glad I only tinker around nowadays relatively speaking , no more easy money to be picked up unfortunately , too many bean counters and scalpers around now , technology a culprit too in the equation .