cheltenham handicap irish winners and losers?

sbbcolumns.co.uk/matos-cheltenham-festival-fancies/
all about opinions..ive put mine up for the week ive made it short and to the point.

Would confidently say that Velvet Maker hasnt a prayer of being involved in the Grand Annual.  Should be a 1000/1 shot.

fair enough bws, its all about opinions ..but i did like it before the owner said he thought it was his best shout..also seen a few others on preview nights give it a mention?..but you could be correct.i had a few others in the handicaps but they are so hard bws...i freely admit i find them harder to fathom

Fair play Tony, the first errant question mark doesn't appear until the fourth line.

Scouse Tonys Biography;


I follow NH racing and I'm lucky enough to make it pay , racing consumes my day and I can study for hours , I'm really a racing nut I'm a regular racegoer and I own a share in a young nh horse with a well known trainer. I'm 47 yrs old and married for 18yrs with 4 children, I like boxing, reading and a lot of TV.

I have to say, Tony, I admire your chutzpah.  If you ever felt like a change of direction, you would be well suited to Irish Politics.

oz..thats 4yrs old..when you post on a site such as that you have to put up who you are you carnt be a nobody,if you look everyone who posts on the site has a few lines about themselfs? but thats at the bottom of the page, only you would post it trying to belittle someone,what upsets you oz the fact im married with children..happily? i pay my own bills? i dont hide behind the net? ..why ?because i have nothing to hide and im honest...something oz you are not.

Relax, Tony.  I'm only adding to your legend!

You're honest about being good at maths alright!  If I were you I'd be checking your sums about 'making the game' pay!

Congrats, I hadn't heard you were back with the Missus.

Classic

im not well off oz never said i was or meant it as such, its hard keeping the wolf from the door some months, but i was putting a racing point up for disscussion, not my biography.

Wonky was a pro once, I'm sure he'll give u some advice on how to make it pay

you carnt keep a racing thread going on here, people just want to chat crap instead of horses and opinions...

i think g elliott will win the martin pipe conditional race thursday with jack kennedy up. 7/1 is a great ew price 1234

whats he riding kavie?

sequeteur  spelling a bit out id say?!!?

Spot on Tony, that is more a reflection on them, tis a terrible afflication altogether to be so nosey, you wonder have they any life at all.

Could well be right Kavvie, Elliott looks to have a very strong hand in all the handicap hurdles and add in if either No More Heroes or Don Cossack manage to win looks a cracking bet at 2/1 to be top trainer W/O WPM, 3 winners will almost certainly bring that bet up and 2 with good places might well do.

what you think of r ricci top owner at 13/8?seems too good to be true or am i missing something

hi pa good to see you,

Done on winners so you would say Min,Douvan,Annie,Vroum Vroum,Limini. That looks your lot and you may need 4 of them, 3 would leave you open with a decent Giggy lot,and Mc Manus has a lot in handicaps + Yanworth, not an easy one and personally think it is no Ricci gimme.
Without working out the math a five timer and X quads may be a better way to go but as said i haven't worked it out.

Hello Tony, nearly there, nice to see the ground with at least some bit of ease, looks to be a good one for Mullins and Irish runners.

To get back to subject matter of the Tonys thread Nina Carberry was in PP today and was very strong on Diamond King in the Coral,10/1 ON B/F EX

the thread tony keenan has done on geegeez said the british handicapper has been hard on elliot?

With Diamond King i,d agree, Desoto County badly needed a few LB more as looks up against getting in.

Great Field fair took my breath away in Leopardstown.

On his first start in Ireland Great Field was a watery favourite all the money was for the long absent So Young and a Dr Massini horse who finds it hard to win.

So Young and Sheamus ran no race so damages the form slightly.
Draco is a fair guide and i think he ran his race.

Great Field ran way too free,he fought with Geraghty for the early part of the race,you would think he couldn't get home.
When he finally got his head he didnt half ping his hurdles,he was Hurricane Fly like in his economy over some of the hurdles.
He was in front for a fair bit and when the field closed up to him.i was sure that was it but he picked up again liked a good one and won in a canter.

He's in the Coral Cup and the County Hurdle but whichever one he goes for I think he will win.
Normally I hate this type of race but for Great Field I will make an exception.

Potential for an Irish forum Cheltenham plunge yankee/15 here for the hell of it, Great Field and Kavvie + myself with Squaoteur.
Any one else with a bit of reasoning care to to add another?

Racing Pulse, Lapsy.  Novices Handicap Chase, last race on Tuesday. 33/1.

I'd prefer not to elaborate publicly on the reasoning.

Feck is that is what is known as a "googley"?
You may know something but on the face of it the pulled up last time and a rotten hard race it doesn't inspire me with confidence.
I know stranger things have happened but it would be nice if you could see at least the "hope" in the selections.
Leave him in the mix and see what we end up with?

I thought the page would be full by now.
Can't do a lot with just 2 and a half horses.

14:50 Chelt 16th Mar Coral Cup
Diamond King 8/1
14:10 Chelt 18th Mar County Hurdle 
Great Field 12/1
16:10 Chelt 18th Mar Foxhunters Chase
On The Fringe 5/2
16:50 Chelt 18th Mar Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle 
Squouateur 13/2 (7's elsewhere)
Yankee 220ew €57,501.20

+
13.30 Chelt 18th Mar Triumph Hurdle
Ivanovich Gorbatov 5/1
Canadain 520ew €388,759.30

I would very much agree on Great Field looking like a potential winner next week off 147, though I very much doubt the Coral would be given any consideration?

Given how free he was over 2m2f, going up to 2m5f wouldn't look on. A flat out 2m, could see him improve a stone IMO. It was incredible how he ran away from them after tanking for so much of the race.  He beat a 135 beast senseless getting 1lb off it. You would have imagined the Irish handicapper would have given him about 146 for that performance.

That would equate to about 150/151 on Phils scale. As WMFB alludes to, he was weak enough in the market that day, suggesting they thought he wasn't quite 'there'. So there is definitely more to come. His freeness means he had plenty more in hand than the official verdict, and he is so lightly raced he would have probably have improved even if he had been fully ready to go.

He has plenty of scope to make an absolute mockery out of his mark. Its just a bit odd he isn't stronger in the market. I would expect him to go off about 7-2/4-1 if he lines up with BJG on board.

The 10s NRNB would be the way to go, rather than the bare 12s IMO. If he runs, 10s will be a distant memory. As might be the 147 soon after it.

We are getting a few .
It looks fairly unanimous with Great Field and Squoateur so far.
Oz's horse if it did manage to win would make some docket though from the quick look i had at that race before i ran away from it seems as if the whole field could possibly be running within 5lb.
Hard to go against Catchmes On the Fringe and Nina, Elliott upbeat with Diamond King but the mark over isn't ideal,personally neutral on that one.
Another to consider but lack of experience is the worry but given that the X Country are all off the level 11-4lb this year. Foxrock is so well in and while i think as Ted would say he's a grand lepper and would be alright,think 7/1 is huge myself.

On The Fringe is a banker IMO.

Campeodor??

I agree about Great Field being well handicapped but I was surprised he wasnt left in the Coral Cup today given that WPM does not like restricting his options prematurely to judge by his block bookings in other races. He didnt seem ecstatic about GF's handicap mark in his quotes last week and queried whether he would have enough experience for the Chelt handicaps. His absence from the Coral Cup might suggest they are giving Chelt a miss rather than earmarking the County as his festival target.

Squouateur doesn't seem well handicapped to me.

One huge plus is that Jack Kennedy looks like riding him.

This horse is sadly a poor reflection on Charlie Swan and a testimony to how good a trainer Gordon Elliott is.

137 in Ireland Wildman,give the usual 4/5lb difference between Irish/British ratings(Callits expertise) it seems near enough,the race looks poor enough overall. Avant Tout got clobbered i thought in it and a bit unfair that got it's chase rating.
You are keen on Campeodor Callit.

^^Think Elliott has also brought Desoto County and Westend Star up a fair notch.

It was open from Willie in regards Great Fields in basically he was seeing what mark he was going to get,there wasn't commitment either way in running or not, you may be right Stellar,still with nrnb if it does run it will certainly be shorter.

I've have great respect for yourself Callit, i can see the potential in Campeodor,it was a decent field and possibly needed the run last time, nice price and not the strongest looking race so we will give that a vote.

The yankee idea is meant as a bit of craic and small stake windmill tilting,think we all had festivals where we had just 1 winner throughout,still we certainly don't want to just hand it over and fair play most selection put up here have decent looking chances.
Oz's selection threw me,if it did win it would make some docket,still instead of 1 yankee i,d split it and do 2, ie;

Great Field(County),Squaoteur(Martin Pipe),On The Fringe(Foxhunters)Campeodor(Fred Winter) £1 stake returns £4528
Great Field(County),Squaoteur(Martin Pipe),On The Fringe(Foxhunters)Racing Pulse(Nov Hand) .50c ew stake returns £6289

They are currently "big brother" prices,stakes can of course be raised or cut but just used as a guideline but even at that a nice return for a small stake.
Know we all will do our own thing but it would be some buzz if we got a run,how do they look as only a suggestion the above?

If he gets in, I wouldn't think there will be a better handicapped horse next week than Clondaw Warrior. Since he moved to Closutton he's gone from 52 to 108 on the flat, went off 6-4 fav for a group 1 on arc day(ok he ran a stinker). UK hurdles rating of 132 is still not much higher than he was when with the shark. I would say this lad is capable of running to 150+ at least

Not a handicap but is Paddy's 15/8 for G.Elliot to be top trainer w/o Willie not a decent bet ?

posted on the wrong thing..what bout leave at down in pertemps final?opinions?

Sorry Pa, didn't notice your mention of Elliot without Willie. Doing your Yankee today.

No worries Nogoody, a festival where Gordon has no standout but a fair few good chances,Callit summed the logic of the bet very well and think Gordon himself would be disappointed if didn't at least get 2(Campeador and Squaoteur if just the 2 hopefully) 
Gordon has grown on me the last few years and has risen to near the top of the trainers premiership,best of luck for the meeting.

Tombstone is not without a chance in tomorrows Supreme hurdle, will like the better ground [says Nina Carberry] 16/1 here if any foremites interested.

The day I back a horse on a jockeys say so is the day I'll give up to be fair

https://promo.racingpost.com/            Some might find value in your local bookies with those cheltenham specials

Books a bit slow and still a bit of 6/4 for Ricci top owner,you must be delighted with the Vautour switch to the Ryanair Kavvie,i didn't fancy it before that but that decision puts a totally different spin on it.

Personally I hope he's pulled up in the Ryanair after the utter contempt connections have treated punters

A few fingers burned with Vautour PA, I understand the decision but it might have come earlier, looks a good thing for the Ryanair, i have a good bet on Don cossack so im happy.

what a complete crock of sh1t the ladr0kes online platform is.  Consttantly having to reset password, unable to deposit, terrible customer service.

There is a lot of seething and presume pocket talk on the other forums here,personally think he/they didn't mean to deliberately mean to mislead anyone though the GC stay or stay at home quote is now obviously a pity it was said. Mullis has always been coy in regards targets and maybe there was a bit of pressure to be a more forthcoming.
Still the logic has to be right,no way would Vautour get the GC trip, the Ryanair is the right race of course,it is pure commen sense and the right decision ultimely.

If he isn't 100% right , should he be running at all??

Ricci said it wasn't a decision made to help Ruby, but to help the horse. If the horse isn't right, then its the wrong decision.

Yes Callit,maybe that is just an excuse? likely also that he isn't 100%,there must be a very thin line between not running if that excuse was true.
Wonder where it leaves Road To Riches now? Meade must be cheesed off with this ones plans this season,it wouldn't be the greatest surprise with Vautour switched that he could well end up as a sacricial lamb in pacemaking duties in the GC though surely MO'L wants a crack at his own race(Valseur enough?) Another question that should be answered soon.

double edged sword pa,i was on vautour at 10s 8s and 7s ew nrnb so im not happy...i think the 3 wise men treated the punters(who without them there would be no racing) with utter contempt.  ricci said gc or box.wp said he was training well for gc and that was the aim.the only thing that would stop them was heavy ground?  not very fair at all on people..

I didn't have a bet on either as I don't back ap, but how anyone can defend these charlatans is incredible.
I'm a big believer in karma. What goes around comes around.

Cruel Callit(Campeador), would have been 2nd to Walshes at the very least and could well have won.

Well done on Diamond Catch . Agree Pa held every chance when tipping up , hard luck Callit...

I was on Rubys e.w as well.......was a bad moment!!

Good start to the day

Catchme please say you done them yourself,if you have you have a lovely sweat,best of luck.

Pity Squaoteur didn't put the Elliott top trainer W/O to bed there. .

By my calculations Henderson will tie with Gordon and get it on places if he wins the last.
How you play it is up to yourself if involved but given Hendos Lough Kent is around 17 on exchange maybe worth covering your stake at least?

Unbelieveable Nicholls wins the last 2 races