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Snookerpunter
02 Feb 16 14:39
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Date Joined: 11 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 337 | Blogger: Snookerpunter's blog
Another cracking week last week on the golf punting front, and a fine end to what was a very profitable month. Lady Luck has certainly been sitting on my shoulder since Snedekers playoff loss.

Dufner rode his luck 9 days ago, Grace holed every clutch putt he looked at on Sunday, and Snedeker pulled off a miracle in Torrey. Tis rare the bounce favours you so consistently. I'll enjoy it while it lasts!

Two more decent events to get stuck into this week, and with the Monday finish to Torrey, it will come around all the quicker!

In Dubai Rory McIlroy is by far and away the most likely winner. Indeed I was very tempted to wade into him. But I had wanted 3-1(or 11-4 in Booyles with their concession), and though the 5-2 there nearly pulled me in while in a shop yesterday, I was alone and hadn't the option of getting a load of dockets over the counter. If it was money back, rather than as a free bet the 5-2 there would been acceptable.

As it is I am going to leave him alone in the outright market. I cant really see him beaten, so wont play anyone else there either.

I have backed him in the First Round Leader market at 13-2. He has bounced out of the blocks very regularly around here, and given his early start time and likelihood to shoot something around 6 under, 13-2 was more than acceptable.

The betting without Rory market is of far more interest to me.

Henrik Stenson wasn't 100% fit two weeks ago, and doubts remain about his knee. Martin Kaymer to me still seems shy of the required confidence to mount a serious title charge. I've been on Byeong Hun An the past two weeks, but after a disastrous weekend in Singapore and a 22 hour round trip he can be passed over here.

Taking them out, leaves 3 players at bigger prices than I believe they should be.

I have become a big Andy Sullivan fan over the past year. The good thing is I don't think the market has the same affection towards him. He threatened victory in Abu Dhabi, but surprisingly faded over the weekend. That is easily forgiven, as it is certainly the exception rather than the rule where his weekend in contention performances are concerned.

There seems to be an increasing habit of him performing well on tracks that Rory likes. This is certainly one of them, and last years 4th adds substance to the affable Englishmans claims. 25-1 is very big IMO.

Thorbjorn Olesen can be a bit hit and miss, but last weeks excellent showing in Qatar will certainly send him here in the right frame of mind. He missed the cut here last year, but had arrived off the back of another MC. Prior to that he had back to back top 5s around here. Its a different story this time around, and I can see him backing up last weeks form.

I tend to steer clear of Bernd Wiesberger as I seem to get him wrong more often than not, but at the same price of 25-1 he again looks overpriced.

He looks to have been slowly coming to the boil, and this test sets up perfectly for him. I will be very surprised if he doesn't have a good week, and he may be the one who forces Rory to got through the gears.

2pts e.w Rory McIlroy FRL 13-2

1.2pt e.w Andy Sullivan 25-1
1.2pt e.w Thorbjorn Olesen 25-1
1.2pt e.w Bernd Wiesberger 25-1
(above 3 all without Rory)


The Phoenix Open always offers plenty of entertainment, and this year should be no different.

One player stood out as the most likely winner by quite a distance, and I was hoping to get 11-1. The 14s on Bubba Watson was a seriously good bet.

There are very few negatives for the two time Masters winner this week, and I wouldn't make him any bigger than 7s. Runner up the past two years, he will be keen to gain revenge for those narrow defeats and he showed enough in the Hyundai to suggest the game will be there to contend. I was keen to avoid those that had a gruelling weekend in Torrey, and Bubba will certainly strip fresher than most of the market leaders.

Another to come here relatively lightly raced this year, though he did play two days last week, is Hideki Matsuyama.

He opened with a fine 4 under on the North Course, but struggled badly on the back 9 on Friday, and missed the cut by one. That can prove a blessing, and may help him gain a win at a venue where he conceivably could have won on both his only two visits. Thursdays round showed he is close to his best, and in any case he arrived off the back of a MC last year too. Expect a strong showing this week.

Though he had a horror show on Friday, I certainly haven't given up on Phil Mickleson. Not as long as he 33-1 for run of the mill PGA events.

Twice a winner before, Phil the Thrill loves the raucous atmosphere that is always present here, and he will be keen to put on a show after last weeks lapse. It wasn't his 'new' long game that undone him on Friday, but surprisingly poor irons and wedges. I don't anticipate a repeat of that, and am more than happy to be on board.

Only slightly shorter than when victorious two weeks ago, I have included Jason Dufner again.

Confidence will be flooding through him, and missing last week to get over the win will have done him the world of good. A couple of missed cuts here in the past 3 years are nothing much to worry about. He was missing cuts everywhere. Of far more significance are his two top tens when he was last playing well, which he certainly is now. Poker faced Duff can handle the carnival atmosphere of the 16th better than most, and that could be crucial come Sunday.

Someone who did endure the trials of a Torrey weekend was Robert Streb. Its not ideal, but what that does give him is the belief that his  game is in fine nick. He shot level par in the final round, when others where shooting cricket scores. 10th here on debut last year, that experience of 4 solid rounds plus yesterdays battling display, along with his excellent form for the most part of the last 6 months suggest he is very much over priced at about the 66-1 mark.

2.2pts e.w Bubba Watson 14-1
.9pt e.w Phil Mickleson 33-1
1pt e.w Hideki Matsuyama 30-1
1pt e.w Jason Dufner 30-1
.5pt e.w Robert Streb 66-1(7 places)

Outrights Week 4- Staked:35.8pts/Returns:99pts
2/3 Balls.......Staked:11pts/Returns:11.1pts

Total Staked: 142.3pts
Total Returned: 285.75pts
Running Total: +143.45pts
R.O.I..........100.8%
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Report insideinfo February 2, 2016 5:03 PM GMT
is one point = one euro?
Report Snookerpunter February 2, 2016 5:16 PM GMT
I'm not sure what relevance that would have inside. A point to a one euro punter, means as much as it does to a thousand euro punter. Or at least it should.

But in answer to your question, no.
Report insideinfo February 2, 2016 5:25 PM GMT
i meant from your perspective.
Report Snookerpunter February 2, 2016 5:34 PM GMT
What I bet in is of no concern of anyone else's. Nor is what anyone else bets to, any concern of mine. What is important is a persons points PnL and ROI.

A persons point is relative to a persons own circumstances. The lad who wins 100k a year is not by any means guaranteed to be a more successful punter than a lad who won 1000.
Report insideinfo February 2, 2016 5:38 PM GMT
Laugh ffs relax callit.i was asking a simple question ie what does a point equal to YOU.its of concern to me hence why i fecking asked you LaughLaughLaugh

no need to get all philosophical it was a simple bloody question requiring a simple answer.
Report huddys February 2, 2016 6:45 PM GMT
Another cracking week ahead in the golf,il start of in Europe were we have the last of the middle east swing,i agree with you snookerpunter about Rory,while I was hoping for a bigger price than what he's been quoted,i cant for the life of me see him getting beaten,and with the insurance of money back as a free bet if Rory finishes second or third from boyles l've been busy visiting some of their shops today,
Now onto the betting without market were l've backed two guys who had a very solid week last week,they have also showing there liken to playing over in the middle east before,
1st selection Bello,finished second last week, showed a bit more bottle than usual last weekend,
2nd selection Olesen,a player who has been has shown he's slowly coming back to his best,had a cracking week last week with a top 5 finish,

Now onto America
1st selection is Bubba Watson,sadly I didn't get any of the 14/1,he has shown his liken for this course before and as snookerpunter he's said he will be fresh and well rested for this week,
2nd selection is Rickie Fowler,after a brilliant win two weeks ago thing didn't pan out for him last week,one of the reasons was the traveling back from the middle east and the other reason was he couldn't get the feel of the greens,he will be much fresher this week after having the weekend off,

Selections,

Omega Golf

Rory Mcllroy win 9/4,

Betting w/o Rory,

Bello e/w 25/1.

Olesen e/w 22/1,

First round leader,

Rory e/w 11/2,

Bello e/w 35/1,

Both players are out early and will get the best condition,

Waste Management golf,

Bubba Watson 11/1 e/w 7 places,

Rickie Fowler 16/1 e/w 7 places,

Also done permed e/w doubles
Bubba 11/1 and Fowler 16/1 permed with Bello 25/1 and Olesen 22/1 betting w/o Rory,

Best of luck this week lads,
Report newapproach February 2, 2016 9:16 PM GMT
2 e/w stabs in Phoenix;

Rickie Fowler 16/1
Webb Simpson 50/1

Good luck
Report padlock February 3, 2016 11:36 AM GMT
Pieters ew in dubai
Mickleson in phoenix
Report Snookerpunter February 3, 2016 11:28 PM GMT
Had toyed with adding Ross Fisher w/o Rory. With the forecast threatening to favour the early starters, he looks worthwhile going with.

.5pt e.w Ross Fisher 66-1(w/o McIlroy)
Report da fallon factor February 3, 2016 11:48 PM GMT
Went with both Wiesberger and Cabretta Bell in Dubai in the betting without Rory market,my only concern with Bell although his record in the middle east is good is that he doesn't seem to have the killer instinct to get the job done when he gets himself in the mix,

In Phoenix I went for JB and Matsuyama,JB loves this course and showed a bit of form last week,Matsuyama could have won here last year,but again like Bell when he gets himself into contention he seems to put on the handbrake

Good Luck lads
Report da fallon factor February 3, 2016 11:48 PM GMT
Bello
Report Snookerpunter February 3, 2016 11:49 PM GMT
2pts Matt Fitzpatrick 8.35am 3 ball 7-4
Report padlock February 4, 2016 7:56 AM GMT
Morning,thx mr pieters a 9 on his first hole the par 5 10 th,rory doing ok...
Report applehunter February 4, 2016 10:10 AM GMT
Bit late

Dubai

Think Rory will prevail.

Have Joost Luiten EW @ 40/1

Phoenix Open

Backing Koepka at a decent price last year was one of the highlights of my betting year. 20/1 on offer this year doesn't tempt me when you have Fowler only 4 point tighter at 16s.

Going with a couple of GIR merchants. Both have played well here in the past and are in decent nick this season.

Webb Simpson 80s
Ryan Palmer 38s
Report Snookerpunter February 4, 2016 11:05 AM GMT
A little bit erratic form Rory this morning.

Bogeyed one par 5, went in the water on another, and made an absolute mess out of the driveable par 4 resulting in bogey.....yet only two shots off the first round lead.

Considering he improved as he went along, and that he lies ahead of any real danger, he now looks a good deal better bet at the current 15-8.

His putting was good. The slick greens again helping, but everything went in or past the hole at a proper pace.

Very hard to see him beaten from here.

Par 5s weren't good to me this morning, with both Fisher and Sullivan notching 7s. Could have had excellent rounds.

8pts Rory McIlroy 15-8

The more I look at it, the more I cant see Matsuyama not contending stateside. 5-4(or the 11-8 if you can avail of it) underrates his top 20 chances. I would make him 1.75.

5pts Matsuyama Top 20 5-4
Report Snookerpunter February 4, 2016 12:55 PM GMT
Brandt Snedeker was in unreal form on Sunday evening, but though he didn't have to tee it up for victory on Monday, he will have expended a lot of mental energy over them 24 hours.

Billy Horschel showed plenty last week himself, and I'm still tempted to add him to the outright team.

In a 3 ball where the part time Steve Stricker doesn't have much chance, 11-5 is very big indeed on Billy.

1.5pts Billy Horschel 19.16 3 ball 11-5
Report Snookerpunter February 4, 2016 1:00 PM GMT
.4pt e.w Billy Horschel 80-1(Outright)
Report Deplasterer February 4, 2016 1:12 PM GMT
Matsuyama 26's W&Pl
Harrington 310 W&Pl
Kirk 260's W&PL

Best of luck.
Report Snookerpunter February 5, 2016 12:15 AM GMT
2pts Matt Fitzpatrick 4.15am 3 ball 3.1
Report applehunter February 5, 2016 10:56 AM GMT
Did Rory have a dodgy kebab or what?
Report applehunter February 5, 2016 9:43 PM GMT
Shottacker is not good for my mental health.

3 putts from inside 4 feet missed by Webb Simpson so far.
Report applehunter February 6, 2016 5:33 PM GMT
No change for Simpson on Day 3.

Shot 4 in the hole
Shot 3 putt 2 ft 10 in., 10 in. to hole
Shot 2 149 yds to green, 23 in. to hole
Shot 1 301 yds to right fairway, 148 yds to hole
Report Deplasterer February 6, 2016 5:59 PM GMT
Shotracker would put you on the drunk apple!Silly. That is shocking putting though, Jesus wept.
Report Deplasterer February 6, 2016 9:12 PM GMT
That's why Matsuyama rarely wins,  6 feet to get within 2 and bogeys. Never again, in the black book and its not even back nine SundayCry
Report lewisham ranger February 6, 2016 11:29 PM GMT
Deplasterer 06 Feb 16 21:12 Joined: 23 Aug 10 | Topic/replies: 4,105 | Blogger: Deplasterer's blog
That's why Matsuyama rarely wins,  6 feet to get within 2 and bogeys. Never again, in the black book and its not even back nine SundayCry

He's young and will get over any mental issues. Will go down in history as the first Japanese player to win a major
Report Deplasterer February 6, 2016 11:46 PM GMT
I have him backed, he is flakey to say the least, let's see him win a PGA event first Lewisham before a major.
Report Deplasterer February 6, 2016 11:49 PM GMT
"Another PGA event"
Report lewisham ranger February 7, 2016 12:00 AM GMT
you sound like you are condemning a guy before he's even turned 25.

surely you should be beating on these chokers who are in their late thirties, and really should know better. Give the guy a chance.

class act and convinced he'll be a top player for many years, and he'll win at least one major, I have been known to be wrong before though. (didn't happen very often though Wink )
Report Deplasterer February 7, 2016 12:56 AM GMT
Not condemning, only going on what I have seen, glad he is coming from behind tomorrow, hopefully hits the front before the headlights can stop him.
Report Snookerpunter February 7, 2016 1:02 AM GMT
That 3 putt annoyed d bollox out of me anyway!!

He's always been a bit tetchy on the short ones. He's been around long enough now that I don't expect him to change. Still right in it though, hopefully Lee can get off to a slow start.

I could do with both Danny's been poor tomorrow!!
Report Deplasterer February 7, 2016 1:07 AM GMT
Backed Sullivan tonite to do willett, only one blemish in 54 holes, if his putter works should hopefully reel him in, nothing from behind to worry about.

Thank God I'm out 2 mor nite, couldn't bear to to put myself thru another Matsuyama roundabout, Pod and Phil were easy to these whippersnappers put you thru the millExcitedCool
Report Deplasterer February 7, 2016 1:09 AM GMT
Sullivan is a likeable sort of character going by the tv Callit, backed him a few times last year to no avail, but looks like could break thru to the bigtime.
Report lewisham ranger February 7, 2016 9:07 AM GMT
yes you guys might be right about matsuyama but don't forget you could have said exactly the same thing about fowler and day a couple of years ago, neither had won much and both were pegged as chokers
Report Deplasterer February 7, 2016 9:59 AM GMT
I hope you are right L RR and he wins later on, and to be fair he is young so has time on his side for majors but will have to improve with Day and Spieth about to win one of the big ones, which is possible certainly.
Report lewisham ranger February 7, 2016 10:26 AM GMT
Yeah I'm sure he will improve mate. As you say Speith, Day and also Mcilroy around so potentially winning a major is harder than ever, but there's going to be a point where they don't play well

Also I think the idea that one player (or a group of players) is "blocking" another from winning a major is an overstated concept, I reckon in reality it doesn't happen that often.

Ok an example where it did was last years PGA when Speith was cleared stopped by winning the tournament by Jason Day, but I reckon if you look around these examples are thin on the ground.

Normally a player has his chance, and if they don't win it comes down more to their own mistakes than some incredible brilliance by another player.
Report Snookerpunter February 7, 2016 1:00 PM GMT
Thought it was destined to be Sullivan when he birdied the last.

Cracking lad alright DP. Great never say die attitude, takes the tough with the smooth.

Willet going into the water on Thursday and bouncing out to d safety on Thursday will a moment he will look back on.

Hopefully Matsuyama doesn't fall to another Danny later.
Report Deplasterer February 7, 2016 1:06 PM GMT
Great finish alright, just short but fair dues to willet making clutch putt on 18. Even Rafa showed some bottle for a change too! Sullivan will win plenty more in Europe and wouldn't be the worst bet ever in some of those world challenge tourneys during the year.

Matsuyama has a great chance, Fowler and Phil to beat as long as he stands up to the pressure.
Report Snookerpunter February 7, 2016 1:08 PM GMT
Love to see Phil start an early charge.
Report Deplasterer February 7, 2016 1:15 PM GMT
Love Phil and some of my biggest wins were with him. Bit like Pod, father time is catching up with him , but still capable of showing the young guys the way home given the chance.
Report Snookerpunter February 7, 2016 4:19 PM GMT
4pts Zach Johnson 17.00 3 ball Evens.
Report newapproach February 7, 2016 10:37 PM GMT
Crazy decision by Fowler to go for the green on 17.

Going into the final hole with matsuyama level. Would still fancy Fowler to get the job done. Looks like a play off now.
Report Deplasterer February 7, 2016 10:38 PM GMT
Meltdown by fowlerExcited come on Matsuyama.
Report newapproach February 7, 2016 10:39 PM GMT
He still looks in control though.

Recovered well on that hole. Better putter usually wins in matchplay.

Myself and huddys against yourself and callitDevil
Report applehunter February 7, 2016 10:52 PM GMT
Great finish.
Report Deplasterer February 7, 2016 10:56 PM GMT
Clutch from Matsuyama, I eat my words. Layed a bit off at 2.32 but the rest is staying on him, toss of the coin, lost one a few weeks back with Sneds in playoff, hoping for better luck. Best of luck, hopefully a birdie wins it.
Report wildmanfromborneo February 7, 2016 10:58 PM GMT
Remarkable that the Golf punters have come up with the goods again.

I hope Fowler wins as what happened to him on 17 seemed unfair.
Report huddys February 7, 2016 11:00 PM GMT
Ye horrible hard luck on the 17th,
Report newapproach February 7, 2016 11:08 PM GMT
He could have avoided the risk by laying up, it was an unnecessary gamble. I say that even though I half admiring him for doing it because a lot of sports, particularly gaelic football, have been destroyed by risk averse tactics. But the ruthless players like Tiger wouldn't have taken an unnecessary risk like that on 17.
Report huddys February 7, 2016 11:09 PM GMT
Yes your right newapproch,
Report Snookerpunter February 7, 2016 11:25 PM GMT
Unlucky break, but it shouldn't have been brought into play.

Cracking last few holes.

Fancy Ricky tbh.
Report newapproach February 7, 2016 11:32 PM GMT
some playo-off
Report Deplasterer February 7, 2016 11:33 PM GMT
Wow, not good for the nerves this.
Report Snookerpunter February 7, 2016 11:37 PM GMT
I have never really called Ricky right, and as such usually ignore him unless he's screaming at me.

His chipping n putting displays the last few months are screaming Augusta.
Report frank60 February 7, 2016 11:39 PM GMT
Great golf,
Report applehunter February 7, 2016 11:42 PM GMT
I know the skull shot well.
Report lewisham ranger February 7, 2016 11:57 PM GMT
told you matsy was no choker Wink
Report huddys February 8, 2016 12:02 AM GMT
Well done winners,
Report applehunter February 8, 2016 12:02 AM GMT
Oh yee of little faith deplasterer.

WD winners.
Report newapproach February 8, 2016 12:03 AM GMT
right you were lewisham. I didn't expect him to be so assured under pressure.

17 expensive for Fowler. Well done boys, golf thread on fire this year.
Report frank60 February 8, 2016 12:04 AM GMT
Wink WELL DONE WINNERS
Report Deplasterer February 8, 2016 12:13 AM GMT
Matsuyama for the masters LR! Unlocky Fowler backers, but he did trade at 1.03 so hopefully a few quid was still got by ye all.
Report padlock February 8, 2016 9:02 AM GMT
Braindead fowler
Report Kelly February 8, 2016 12:06 PM GMT
Well done lads , wasn't posting here myself as I started the thread re Dubai on the main golf forum .  Lots of winners flagged up on here , outright and individual matches etc , in keeping with recent excellent track record .  Only bet myself on Dubai concerned Rory ( lay to trade), who I think is aiming to peak maybe 6 times this year , Majors obviously plus 2 WGC's or so . He still looks like he is playing a different game to the others when he is firing on all cylinders . Would like to have the inside track on when the shot of redex is going in the tank !
Report Ozymandius February 8, 2016 12:10 PM GMT
Congratulations on the successful trade, George.

Another stellar tipping week on here.
Report Snookerpunter February 8, 2016 7:35 PM GMT
Jimmy Walker looks cracking bet at 20s this week.
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