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31 Jan 16 18:14
Date Joined: 03 Apr 12
| Topic/replies: 304 | Blogger: Jumping's blog
not in the best of health by all accounts???
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Report pa lapsy February 2, 2016 6:00 PM GMT
Odd they left him in at the 5 day if that was the case?
Report wildmanfromborneo February 5, 2016 9:27 PM GMT
I hope this thread is a joke as I heard he is in rude health.

Dislike betting odds on but this lad has to win.
Report gutfeeling February 5, 2016 9:34 PM GMT
Jer's Girl ew is the way to bet this race.
Report wildmanfromborneo February 5, 2016 9:40 PM GMT
She is a tough filly that will love the ground ( by Jeremy ) but she will be hoping for third as I see Ivanovich Gorbatov and Let's Dance skipping clear with a repeat of the last finish at Leopardstown.

I think Ivanovich Gorbatov is a natural and will improve from his last victory.
Report TellTheKing February 5, 2016 9:54 PM GMT
There were widespread rumours about the horse in the past fortnight or so. Given his appearance tomorrow (assuming he produces a performance in keeping with Christmas) then it looks like they were unsubstantiated.
Report mincer11 February 5, 2016 9:58 PM GMT
There are a few very dicey looking favourites there tomorrow and Ivanovic Gorbatov is one of them, there has been rumours circulating that he's been difficult to train and you'd never know what kind of state he'd be in there tomorrow. Possibly undercooked ,in a deeper race, lacking experience, wearing a tongue tie, it certainly wouldnt be for me.
Bellshill is another favourite id find it hard to back (or lay for that matter ), and On The Fringe is another who would be in the same bracket, race fitness surely being  a huge concern, even though hes definitely the best horse in the race.
The one favourite who can be confidently opposed is Road To Riches, ground against it, a bad prep, very competitive race, but most importantly trained by Noel Meade. At in or around evens, you can close our eyes and have a go.
Report TellTheKing February 5, 2016 10:12 PM GMT
If you were to lay one it would have to be Bellshill. He has the highest number of opponents that have legitimate claims against him on form. The other one is probably On The Fringe as a now 11yo who was at the end of his tether last season and has a history of leg trouble. Despite having the most whip happy amateur in Codd riding I am sure he won’t be abused if he’s not doing it on the bridle. The difficulty is the sparsity in opposition.

Think the O’Brien horse has too big an engine to be fielding deep against as you are largely relying on him underperforming. No strong view on the Gold Cup. I’d like to see Road To Riches hose up for the merit of the race.
Report newapproach February 5, 2016 10:30 PM GMT
Outlander looks the solid form horse in the novice chase and should be hard to beat. He looks a better chaser than hurdler already and won both his two races this season relatively impressively.
Report mincer11 February 5, 2016 10:48 PM GMT
I dont neccesarily agree that Bellshill has that many legitimate opponents at all. The only 2 horses in this race that could be top horses are the first 2 in the betting, id be amazed if either green and gold horse won, and Petit mouchoir has plenty to prove  as well.
I dont see how  anyone can be sure about Ivanovic Gorbatov, he basically won a two horse race at Xmas, and this is a much more competitive affair.
4yo's are a poor betting medium and this race has a habit of getting favs beaten, a winners race where they are all trying to get a position is much more difficult than a 2 horse maiden hurdle. Hes not wearing a tongue strap to floss his teeth either.
As for Road to Riches, hes had a difficult prep, and is trained by Noel, so its an all in move.
Report TellTheKing February 5, 2016 11:30 PM GMT
I suggest that Bellshill has legitimate opposition in that if he runs below par (say to 140) then there are more than one candidates to fill the gap. I personally think Tombstone will win but I definitely don’t see Bellshill standing far ahead of the rest of them with the drop in trip.

Road To Riches is a proper Grade One horse and they tend to overcome the adversity that affects lesser horses. Won’t be backing him but I will be cheering him on.

The juvenile race is competitive but there’s a ceiling on the horses that contested the Grade Two at Christmas. I admit to couching at least some of my faith in IG based on his Flat form plus the strong visual impression of is jumping debut (especially given the support for Let’s Dance in that race). Takes a considerable engine to win a Leopardstown handicap off 97 on his third start. He could easily be a Cup horse. The O’ Brien’s are using tongue ties on their jumpers as a matter of course. Wouldn’t place much emphasis on it myself.
Report wildmanfromborneo February 6, 2016 10:41 AM GMT
On The Fringe won everything last year and he will win again today.

I think the short ones will win today in this order.

Ivanovich Gorbatov
On The Fringe
Some Neck
Road To Riches.

Amazed at Mincers comments,I hope Snap Crackle Pop hasn't nobbled him.
Report lewisham ranger February 6, 2016 11:22 AM GMT
fancy lets dance in the first.
Report padlock February 6, 2016 11:25 AM GMT
Agree think they think lets dance is usefull
Report tony57 February 6, 2016 12:19 PM GMT
was @Aintree when JERS GIRL won..and she should of won lto she is the bet in the race e/w..i,d be surprised shes out the frame.
Report gutfeeling February 6, 2016 12:28 PM GMT
Puppy will want to give her a mid race breather Tony, Something he neglected to do the last day.
Think she takes all the beating myself with Rashaan & Allblak Des Places the one's I'm worried about.
Think the fav & 2nd fav have more to prove than those 3 & ADP French form stacks up very well.
Good luck mate.
Report Snookerpunter February 6, 2016 12:56 PM GMT
2s Lets Dance w/o for me.
Report Snookerpunter February 6, 2016 12:58 PM GMT
Cracking card.

I'm not sold on bells hill as of yet. Petite got no assistance from the saddle at xmas, and though tombstone was free and many crabbed Cooper, petite was maybe the unlucky one.

Will lay bells hill as it stands.

Outlander and zabana dutched.

Some Neck will win.
Report tony57 February 6, 2016 1:02 PM GMT
dissappoited with jers girl..but jesus the favourite was poor..
Report playthegameboy February 6, 2016 1:05 PM GMT
Geraghty had no intention of putting that horse into the race, you could see that from early on. Still a poor showing
Report padlock February 6, 2016 1:42 PM GMT
Lets dance ran a strange race,lookes cooked then ran on well,cheltenham maybe
Report mincer11 February 6, 2016 1:58 PM GMT
Anybody who backed the favourite for the Triumph may well be dissapointed but he's far from a write off. Made a very bad mistake, the ground was atrocious and more than likely all against him, and he certainly wasnt abused. If the winner of the triumph was in that race, it certainly was him.
Report tony57 February 6, 2016 2:03 PM GMT
he,ll not beat kings horse.
Report mincer11 February 6, 2016 2:14 PM GMT
What are you on about Tony ?
Report tony57 February 6, 2016 2:21 PM GMT
sceau on at a bigger price e/w..but ive liked it for a while, imo that O'Brien horse will not beat it.
Report CheltenhamRoar February 6, 2016 3:30 PM GMT
We've seen it a million times on the flat with O'Brien, no difference here,
Wouldn't be surprised if he p!sses up in the triumph,
Tony did you think that before today or is it a knee jerk reaction?
Report tony57 February 6, 2016 7:34 PM GMT
I never fancied the o'brien horse, ive said on here before I like the king horse and ive backed him, ive seen him up close and although hes not a big horse ..he fills the eye..i haven't seen the o'brien horse ..but on tv he looks a pony?(those who have seen him may put me right)hes only favourite still now cos of bookie liabilities, ive no doubt he'll be better on good ground,but I saw kings when beat @wetherby he got beat a nose..since then hes come on a bundle winning at cheltenham..I think hes the best we have..unless henderson's that won the other day proves exceptional..but they have only run once.
Report Rocketfingers February 6, 2016 8:58 PM GMT
Does not matter what size the horse is Tony, the time it did at leopardstown at Christmas was serious. That run was far to bad to be true.
Report CheltenhamRoar February 6, 2016 9:25 PM GMT
If kings yoke was any use it wouldn't have ran as many times as it has, can't have him at all.
So many strange results today as there often is on that kinda ground,Cup final is Cheltenham, I'm not saying IG will win just saying it wouldn't surprise me in the least if a different IG turns up at Cheltenham.
Report Nogoody February 7, 2016 12:06 PM GMT
Mincer, I had to call you on your Paul Nolan thread, I believed you to be wrong and still do, but I got a tad personal and that was wrong of me,your own business is your own business, but by jaysus you were spot on re. the shorties yesterday, respect man.
Report tony57 February 7, 2016 4:51 PM GMT
it does to me, lots of small horses carnt carry off the same weight in a grade 1 Id not be wanting to be with it..times are not everything as size is not everything..
chealtenham..the king horse has won the best trial for the race over cd?..and its no good?..fair enough..
Report mincer11 February 7, 2016 9:44 PM GMT
Nogoody, I can't actually remember you getting personal, it must have been relatively mild. Not that I mind getting abuse, not in the slightest . I do give plenty of stick on here so I'm well entitled to get some as well. I actually enjoy the banter on here and no matter what anyone says , I certainly wouldn't take offence.
As for Nolan, everyone is entitled to their opinion but I don't rate him, never have and never will.
And the results yesterday were quite possibly due to the quagmire that they raced on , I certainly wouldn't read too much into what happened in Leopardstown yesterday . I quite fancy we saw 2 festival winners there yesterday and neither of them were placed
Report wildmanfromborneo February 7, 2016 9:50 PM GMT
Ivanovic Gorbatov and On The Fringe I presume
Report mincer11 February 7, 2016 9:54 PM GMT
Exactly Dan.
Going to take the 6 in the morning myself Ivanovic Gorbatov, it's actually 7 in places .
Report wildmanfromborneo February 7, 2016 10:03 PM GMT
I bet all the six to four on I could yesterday and was disappointed in him,disappointed in myself as well as I didnt listen to all the words of caution.

Naturally after the event I was. Told about all his problems.
Apparently he is a flighty fragile horse that's difficult to train,he's not going to shorten no matter what I would wait til you see him galloping down to the start for the Triumph before risking a penny.

Some have referred to Aidan OBriens habit of training them by degrees with regards this lad but he has nothing to do with the training of this horse.
Report workrider February 7, 2016 10:07 PM GMT
Wildmanfromborneo just pm'd you..
Report mincer11 February 7, 2016 10:20 PM GMT
Dan , he's 6/1 now . It's little over a month away so it's big odds on he gets there. I will pack in the game for ever if he is that price going to the start. He will be no more 6/1 than the man in the moon.
Maybe he will get beat but it won't be by any Irish horse , and from what I've seen in England , there isn't any horse that you'd be saying he couldn't beat.
Report wildmanfromborneo February 7, 2016 10:48 PM GMT
Why would he shorten ?

He's not going to run til Cheltenham.
We now know he is fragile,there has to be some chance he gets a leg or something.
Everyone else now know he is fragile.

Factor in  the Triumph is the first race on its day and will be subject to a host of specials.
Whilst he is a loser on the ante post books few of the course layers will have a penny out of him.

This is only a discussion but I would be amazed if he starts at less than 5/1.
Report mincer11 February 7, 2016 10:56 PM GMT
You may well be right and a lot of water will pass under the bridge before the 18th March, but I fancy it will go off 7/2 fav and will pisss in.
Report wildmanfromborneo February 7, 2016 11:03 PM GMT
I hate the race,only ever remember backing the winner once ( Mysilv Adrian Maguire ) so will be leaving it well alone.

Hope your bet wins though as I like to see Irish winners and like the OBriens
Report mincer11 February 7, 2016 11:11 PM GMT
Thank you Dan, although we do differ slightly regarding getting the winners. If I back a winner I couldn't give two hoots what country it came from, and if it meant collecting the reddies, it wouldn't bother me if John Gilligan trained and Wayne Dundon rode.
Report wildmanfromborneo February 7, 2016 11:14 PM GMT
If you must use the Ben Lang get the spelling right,failing that why not just call them Nelsons.
Report dj876 February 7, 2016 11:20 PM GMT
The triumph used to be a layer's dream but that's altered since the evolution of the Fred Winter though juvenile hurdles wouldn't be my favourite betting medium by any means.

Surely Gilligan's chance of a festival winner are gone now that CAB have acquired Jessbrook but Dundon could be as prolific as Ruby given his current residence.
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