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7.00 Dundalk - Ebadan @6/5
This son of holy roman emperor has a profile that I wouldn't normally associate with a max stake selection. A maiden having its fourth run is a profile that you would normally be against as it normally suggests at least one of the following a lack of pace, a horse that isn't progressing or a lack of authenticity.
However this doesn't apply here as a more detailed analysis of the form reveals. His first run at Dundalk was extremely eye-catching with Shane Spencer finding all sorts of trouble but still finished best of all.
He then ran an absolute cracker in an extremely hot maiden for Dundalk. Red Rannagh (7/2 -11/8 ) was ridden in extremely determined fashion by Seamie Heff and completely out-rode Conor Hoban. They pulled over 2 lengths clear of the well fancied English challenger with an extending 8 lengths back to the fourth. The reason I believe Ebadan is progressing is because of the collateral form from his course debut. Markhan finished a length ahead of him on the 13/11 but was 10 lengths adrift next time out. This collateral form line is substantiated by another beaten horse -Zorovan who was beaten 2 lengths by Markhan in both maidens. The fifth horse Oscar Dominguez beaten over 13 lengths has subsequently won a handicap with ease of a mark of 70. The winner Red Rannagh has subsequently ran in an extremely hot conditions race at Lingfield and was well beaten but that contest would be a steep rise in class.
I am a massive fan of the maestro at Copper Beech and he operates at an impressive s/r around here but what I absolutely love is the ruthlessness displayed by jocking up Pat Smullen here in place of the young Westport man who operated at a 3 % s/r during 2015. Nothing against Hoban but he's able to ride at minimum weight and it shows in a finish.
A basic question that I always like being able to confidently answer when getting stuck in are how high is the probability that the form will be reproduced (inclusive of connections possible intentions) - It's safe to say that this will be the Aga Khan owned colts FA cup final, 2 recent course and distance runs at a progressive level also reveal that it's extremely likely that he will reproduce his form.
The pricing monkeys have made an error here at 6/5 -this should be 4/6 or shorter and will be come race time imo.
This son of holy roman emperor has a profile that I wouldn't normally associate with a max stake selection. A maiden having its fourth run is a profile that you would normally be against as it normally suggests at least one of the following a lack of pace, a horse that isn't progressing or a lack of authenticity.
However this doesn't apply here as a more detailed analysis of the form reveals. His first run at Dundalk was extremely eye-catching with Shane Spencer finding all sorts of trouble but still finished best of all.
He then ran an absolute cracker in an extremely hot maiden for Dundalk. Red Rannagh (7/2 -11/8 ) was ridden in extremely determined fashion by Seamie Heff and completely out-rode Conor Hoban. They pulled over 2 lengths clear of the well fancied English challenger with an extending 8 lengths back to the fourth. The reason I believe Ebadan is progressing is because of the collateral form from his course debut. Markhan finished a length ahead of him on the 13/11 but was 10 lengths adrift next time out. This collateral form line is substantiated by another beaten horse -Zorovan who was beaten 2 lengths by Markhan in both maidens. The fifth horse Oscar Dominguez beaten over 13 lengths has subsequently won a handicap with ease of a mark of 70. The winner Red Rannagh has subsequently ran in an extremely hot conditions race at Lingfield and was well beaten but that contest would be a steep rise in class.
I am a massive fan of the maestro at Copper Beech and he operates at an impressive s/r around here but what I absolutely love is the ruthlessness displayed by jocking up Pat Smullen here in place of the young Westport man who operated at a 3 % s/r during 2015. Nothing against Hoban but he's able to ride at minimum weight and it shows in a finish.
A basic question that I always like being able to confidently answer when getting stuck in are how high is the probability that the form will be reproduced (inclusive of connections possible intentions) - It's safe to say that this will be the Aga Khan owned colts FA cup final, 2 recent course and distance runs at a progressive level also reveal that it's extremely likely that he will reproduce his form.
The pricing monkeys have made an error here at 6/5 -this should be 4/6 or shorter and will be come race time imo.
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600 dundalk - times in anatefka, was waiting on this lto( well bkd from morning price) for a hefty sum and it was virtually left in stalls before running on admirably to finish 5th without ever looking a winner ( worth having a look at it).
As i said, has developed a little habit of being slowly away but in the hope that being drawn a little deeper , first time blinkered and off 4lb below lwm at 6/1 pp its a bet or alternatively wait and back after the off if breaking adequately. |
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The only concern I would have is the Aidan O'Brien trained first reserve has strong form so perhaps the possibility of him running is factored into the price.
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Some of these firms, both which have priced, bet without the reserve don't they? Bet365 fall into this category I think?
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o brien horse has decent run in alright , has to be put in the could be anything bracket with a few from race having won since !
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Thanks Temelett, you're correct about 365 which is a relief.
Yeah Tobywong,a son of Galilieo and everything has practically won from that maiden has subsequently ran. Take a guess which book has it priced Ebadan 5/4,a shin impaala 13/8 and Birthplace 2/1. That is an absolute disgrace,would they apply a r.4 on the priced reserve? Anyone having a bet in the race should be careful with who they bet and what exactly their rules are. |
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Bet365 ignore the reserve I think and if you win you are paid at the odds and if you are beaten into 2nd you win. It is a tricky won but I think you ignore Birthplace.
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Looked at this race myself earlier and came to the same conclusion in that Ebadan should be odds on. Like you say the right horses were clear last time and the subsequent form says it's 80 rated at least. No reason it shouldn't run to form and there is a loose form line with the 2nd fav which says it's got six or so lengths to find. These maidens at Dundalk are great punting oportunities and like you say the right jockeys up and it's a confident selection.
Only other one a like tomorrow is Tippmanboy in the 1.50 at Huntingdon. The trainer has picked up quite a few ex Irish horses recently and has done reasonably well although it's arguable whether he's improved them. Regardless of that it's bumped into a couple in it's last two runs and deserves it's mark with trip and ground not a concern. Present fav is respected and trainer has been having a good spell but will it run to a mark of around 125 on it's hurdles debut on ground it's never encountered. Respected but has to be opposed with what is a solid yardstick. |
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PP a joke, 11/10 - 13/8 - 2/1
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Backed the Richard Hughes horse at Dundalk tonight at 10/3,
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ul joe
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really like the king horse for the festival..
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Well done DJ ...
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Top class as usual dj well done
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Nice one dj. Well done
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Had a great night earlier in Dundalk.
A real success story of Irish racing. |
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Formscan By Eamonn Murphy - BILLY'S HOPE has a great pedigree and she's got a deal of ability herself as displayed on her racecourse appearances to date. Said to be a big strong filly it's likely that she could continue to progress with racing, and the five-year-old is back to the scene of her debut third placing over flights, which came about here on the first day of the Christmas Festival. Of course the winner on that occasion, Coney Island, is seen as a Supreme Novice hurdle candidate, so Billy's Hope has to be viewed as a big player now back solely amongst her own sex. There are quite a few of the rest of them that could come into it, including Una's Pleasure and Pride Of The Braid.
DJ s mentor I'd say... |
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DANIELLES JOURNEY EW NAP
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Northern Bastard's got his days wrong again....
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