Sony Open Golf

Nice to have a good start to the year from a punting perspective, and from a golf fan(and Speith fan) perspective it was a cracking event. What a performance it was. Patrick Reed also needs to be kept on side, for the immediate future at least. He played superbly, showed a fine attitude once again, but just didn't hole anything like his fair share.

One swallow doesn't make a summer, but Dustin Johnson was poor, and I certainly haven't changed my view that he is to be avoided at the moment.

Jason Day was predictably rusty, but showed more than enough to suggest he will be a major force again this year. His performance of last week was very similar to last year. He would certainly settle the rest of the year mirroring 2015.

The Sony does not have the same X Factor of the sports elite names, but it is still high enough in quality. Like last week, there are a few at the head of the market who I think can be avoided.

Adam Scott has to prove he has got enough confidence in his new flat stick. His average performances in his homeland prior to Christmas didn't really inspire.

I put Matt Kuchar up as one to avoid last year, and he vindicated that by having a relatively poor year. He has excellent course form here, but he is not for me until he starts showing his old sparkle.

Kevin Kisner is a class act, but 3 missed cuts here recently don't have me jumping to take the miserly 20-1 on offer. Zach Johnson is a past winner, and will appreciate this test more than that of last week. But to me he just didn't have the control that you associate with an on form Zach.

Having backed Jimmy Walker last week, it was disappointing he couldn't grab the e.w money. A poor Sunday no doubt, but having looked for reasons not to back him this week, I simply couldn't find enough. 16-1 with 6 places is very big IMO.

He actually played quite a bit better than his score yesterday, but just holed absolutely nothing. Missing quite a few tiddlers along the way. Not many players win the same event 3 years running, but such was Jimmy's dominance in victory last year and given his recent return to form, he doesn't look a 16-1 chance to land the hat trick.

I was hoping Francesco Molinari would have another outing before the end of 2015, as he looked to be in fine fettle. He didn't, but comes here off a similar break to when he arrived for his debut last year. 4 rounds in the 60s, albeit without any fireworks gives him grounds to believe he can get involved this week. Especially if he putts as well as he did when an excellent 4th when last seen in the DP tour Championship. At 80-1 I feel he represents tremendous value. 

Ryan Palmer is not a player I usually entertain, as I don't believe he possesses a great set of balls. But price as ever is King and given he has started at less than half this weeks price, for events no weaker than this in the recent past, he is worthy of inclusion. He has had a decent break, but no different to when he put up a solid display here last year. A former winner, its clearly an event he targets and it would be safe enough to assume he has done plenty of work coming in here. 55-1 is big all things considered.

I kept a keen eye on Chris Kirk last weekend, as played him twice in two balls. It was middling performance to be fair, but at 50-1 and with two top 5s here in the last 3 years, I am prepared to give him the chance to prove that last week will be bettered here.

Brandt Snedeker may have one eye on Pebble Beach after last weeks sterling effort, but such was his display with the putter, he can be a factor here en route there. He worked very hard on his game over the Christmas break, and it showed. His long game was good, and he seemed his confident best on the greens banging home putt after putt. Two missed cuts here are a bit of a worry, his absence since maybe suggesting he didn't feel it suited, but even taking that into account I would make him second fav.

Jason Dufner has never really lit this place up, and neither has he showed his very best form for some time. But he was in reasonable nick before the break, and if he is to make his way back to the top table, one senses he will have to make inroads this season. For that reason I feel he may come out firing. There was enough in his game lately to suggest he is getting there, and at 80-1 in a field shy of the very best he is worth the plunge.

2pts e.w Jimmy Walker 16-1(6 places)
1pt e.w Brandt Snedeker 28-1(6 places)
.6pt e.w Chris Kirk 50-1
.6pt e.w Ryan Palmer 50-1(6 places)
.4pt e.w Jason Dufner 80-1
.5pt e.w Francesco Molinari 80-1

Totals Week One:
Outright Markets: Staked 19.8pts Returned 50.65
2/3 Balls: Staked 7.5pts Returned 10.65

Total Staked 27.3pts
Total Returned 61.3pts
Running Total....+34pts
R.O.I.......124.5%

Best of Luck All.