Irish Sports
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25 Nov 15
23:17
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27 Sep 11
I have been looking forward to this lad tackling fences, and though he starts off in a very decent event, he looks the one to beat.
Ever since his days in Irish bumpers, he has seemed to be one marking time before beginning what he is made for. Chasing.
I was very keen on him for the AB at last years festival, but he performed ultimately disappointingly, having travelled like a winner to 3 out. Though ground with cut is what he needs, maybe he just found 3m in soft ground just too much of a slog at that stage of his career.
Fitness is hardly likely to be an issue, with the Skelton yard in absolutely tremendous form.
The favourite, and main danger Un Temp Pour Tout, can maybe use lack of fitness for his defeat at the Open meeting, but it was still a disappointing effort. Yes, all of Pipes were disappointing there, and I expect he is much better than that, but he would have to be. The second fav fell 3 out when travelling like a winner, and third fav Twelve Roses ran no race and pulled up. 13 days is also not really long enough to derive full benefit if he was very short of fitness there.
I can see VAR devouring the Newbury fences, and though artificially big early prices have gone, the current 11-4 still strikes me as worth taking.
Ever since his days in Irish bumpers, he has seemed to be one marking time before beginning what he is made for. Chasing.
I was very keen on him for the AB at last years festival, but he performed ultimately disappointingly, having travelled like a winner to 3 out. Though ground with cut is what he needs, maybe he just found 3m in soft ground just too much of a slog at that stage of his career.
Fitness is hardly likely to be an issue, with the Skelton yard in absolutely tremendous form.
The favourite, and main danger Un Temp Pour Tout, can maybe use lack of fitness for his defeat at the Open meeting, but it was still a disappointing effort. Yes, all of Pipes were disappointing there, and I expect he is much better than that, but he would have to be. The second fav fell 3 out when travelling like a winner, and third fav Twelve Roses ran no race and pulled up. 13 days is also not really long enough to derive full benefit if he was very short of fitness there.
I can see VAR devouring the Newbury fences, and though artificially big early prices have gone, the current 11-4 still strikes me as worth taking.
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agree with you, this horse is a very exciting chasing prospect. It could tun out a very good decision not to overface him over hurdles last year as he looks a horse who will be a lot better over fences.
The novice hurdle looks a cracker as well. Excellent racing today. |
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I took 7/2 last night only because I was at haydock last Friday and skelton told the friend I was with that this one was working the house down..and the trainer loves him,indeed a very tough introduction ,for me beast of burden is the danger, im hoping nicholls has enough work into WUFF 1.00, ive followed this one ever since I saw him on debut a better looking horse would be hard to find, but lto was very poor he went backwards last season..its strange he has not been better over fences as he looks a chaser all over
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beast of burden was impressive at chepstow so he'd have to come into the equation as well.
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I should have said "was impressive at chepstow before falling"
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yes be careful Lewisham, on here if you make a mistake you have hawks that label you for it, yet they themselves have no clue about the game? some don't even post a opinion or go racing?
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It's a very good chase. All the runners could arguably line up in Cheltenham via one race or another. I'll be keeping a watching brief.
Walk To Freedom looks the proverbial each way good thing (if you can get on) in the first in Thurles. Shaped very nicely on debut having made stealthy headway down the back and never abused. It's almost a carbon copy of Mr Fiftyone last year who came into the race off a good debut and took advantage of UDS's fall. Obviously Shaneshill has the engine but no horse is infallible, particularly in novice chases. The only thing that will stop Give Me A Break from winning is the rider. The early prices have gone on Epsom Day in Chelmsford but he really should be winning. Has a lot in it's favour (not least a stiffer track and different rider). Very good days racing for a Thursday. |
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Agree with the above, looks a good prospect but very hot race. Beast of Burden could be a monster in the making, but perhaps looking for a confidence boost today. Will be shouting for yours but watching brief for me.
A horse I have been looking forward to is See the World 12.30 Newbury. Didn't expect it to start in a race quite as competitive as this but hoping he wan win today. Rated really highly, stable firing and ground and trip ideal. Modus and Charmix will be tough opponents but both beatable under a penalty. Really looking forward to today's racing. GL |
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Yeah See The World looks to have a huge engine. The yards horses often don't progress like you'd hope / expect but this did look a bit special in Wincanton (and not just after it veered off course - it moved like a right horse throughout).
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Really like Beast Of Burden who looked to have the race in safe keeping before unseating at Chepstow. Main concern would be Curtis has never had a chase winner around Newbury nor has Townend ever ridden a winner there.
Have taken the 7/2 but covered Killala Quay who looks far too big at 33's to me. Has some decent hurdles form which I'll not mention and has some good experience over fences with his first start when 2nd to Deputy Dan looking fair form with all 3 behind since winning themselves (irish Cavalier, Boondooma, The Skyfarmer ) Well beaten nto in a G2 was then 2nd in a 0 -145 at Huntingdon before being pulled up in a Listed handicap at the Festival when carrying top weight. Won fto this season around Uttoxeter beating Souriyan who was 3rd beaten under 2 lengths in a 0 -135 recently when looking to blow up after the last & Kylemore Lough who went and won a 0 -135 by 17 lengths when heavily eased up after the last. Just feel he is overpriced as I doubt UTPT will be wanting a hard race after his run at Cheltenham recently, Also I'm not fully convinced he is a genuine 3m horse, yes he won a French Ch over 3m but they tend to crawl around which I doubt they'll do here. Best of luck today everyone. |
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Great analysis GF - you've highlighted the depth of today's race.
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TTK, am balls deep on that Epsom Day yoke of yours today in Chelsmford.
'Er indoors has been whipped into a shopping frenzy by this Black Friday milarkey. Am actually thinking of disconnectng the internet for a day or two to put an end to her gallop. |
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Very good Ozy - hopefully you can order one of those LG 55" UHTV's once Gosden's does the job!
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7-2 nice price Tony.
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Native River.......... they will be going 3-places on Betfair .......... is the one that stays 3m for sure...... could be finishing the strongest with a few to prove they stay properly. With that is mind I would like to see a solid pace but that is a big ? Small Investment on NR in 3-places market.
A decent contest to enjoy for sure. |
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Phil`s Magic (12.15), tbh shouldn`t have ran the last day after getting loose......... Sandra Hughes horses seem unfit and many will need their first run. This fellow is expected to strip fitter imo today and looks an o.k price 6/1 11/2 e/way w/out Shaneshill.
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Thanks Telltheking. I had more to say (Port Melon right handed tight course form, Race fell apart for him lto, Native King using Abracadabra Sivola should finish behind BOB, Value At Risk seems best fresh has won here and on soft so is a big danger to all)...but had to head off into town with the missus.
Looking forward to seeing Petit Mouchior today, Too short for a punt but looked a exciting horse when last seen. |
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See The World didn't set off any firecrackers. Ran to an ok level of form but the bumper win may have been misleading. Wasn't in love with Modus, think the kid gloves from Geraghty were more out of necessity than choice.
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VALUE AT RISK MY BISMARCK
 WILL LAY IT IN BOTH WIN/PLACE JUST HAVE BIG gut FEELING THAT GET NICE SCHOOL TODAY IN VERY HOT RACE WITH EVEN BOTH OUTSIDERS NOT OUT OF IT TWELVE ROSES 1 LENGTH BEHIND MORE OF THAT AND 9 LTHS BEHIND FAUGNEEN YES PU AT CHELT GOING BE DECENT CHASER KILALA QUAY RAN CRACKER BEHIND PUFFIN BILLY WITH SOME DECENT HORSES BEHIND AT ASCOT BEAST OF B WOULD HOSED UP BUT FOR UNSEATING LTO AND WILL BE BETTER FOR EXPERIANCE NATIVE RIVER ANOTHER IN WITH CHANCE JUMPED WELL AT BOTH CHEPSTOW AND EXETER THE WINNER FOR ME IS PIPES UN TEMPS POUR TOUT GOT REAL GOOD EXPERIANCED RIDE AT CHELT AND IS MY IDEA OF SUN ALLIANCE WINNER NEXT YEAR . NO DOUBT VALUE AT RISK IS GREAT PROSPECT BUT IMO IN THIS VERY HOT NOVICE AND WORTH LAYING TODAY HAPPY TO BE PROVED wrong |
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Lincoln County is a average good ground horse, While Sea the World did well to win after his antics the form amounted to very little.
Modus would appreciate a stronger pace on decent ground, Possible they may go up in trip as he seems to settle much better now with the introduction of the hood but we'll know more when he goes up in class. Must bear in mind Charmix is no slouch as well. |
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I backed Royal Caviar at 7-4 in the 2.00 before the NR, but he still looks a bet now at 11-10 after the removal of the one unknown in it.
His bumper form bears the closest scrutiny, and his second to Windsor Park doesn't read too bad either. True he was disappointing when last seen, but the subsequent absence would suggest all was not well that day. The hood should help temper his over exuberance, and I imagine Willie will be left scratching his head if he doesn't comfortably dispose of this lot. |
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value at risk is a very good horse and with a good round of jumping will win.
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Should be winning that Callitasucit.
The Mullins 2nd string isn't without a chance nor is Nine Stitches who if ironing out it's mistakes could be half decent. GL. |
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Complete dog.
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Think Ruby would've won on either of those.
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WELL DONE CALLIT
8.2 IR RUBY CERTAINLY WASNT MISSING IT WITH THE WHIP |
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Ffs skelton
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FFS.
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WD Easy.
Fav v disappointing again. |
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well spotted easygold.exactly as you said..
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Hope a small dabble in the win market on NR also occurred.
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WD EG
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WD Easy. Did it very well, I underestimated Native River to my cost.
Still think UTPT want's dropping back in trip although kicking him in the guts down the back straight while those behind were taking a breather was always a poor move. Like to see him over 2m 4f nto and see what happens. |
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Fair play Easygold,nice bit of reasoning as well.
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No worries........ I have a double with Cadawill in the last at Thurles.......... But will have a lay up in-running for sure smooth traveller but when push comes to shove it can be weak. We will see.
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Good call Easy. The winner has come a long way. Only just over a year since it was beat in a Newton Abbot bumper. Has a good way of going about it's business.
Pity about Value At Risk. I think he has a massive engine but that's the third time in succession things have gone awry when Skelton has been roaring about him. |
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Pa, you seem to have different speed levels when congratulating , very quick for loonball easy, not so fast when snap crackle has a winner.
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There you go Pa, Don't stray from the laptop when SCP has a horse running as the times are being noted.
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well done easygob good analysis pity it was just a place
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