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dj876
29 Aug 15 18:32
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Date Joined: 01 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 6,249 | Blogger: dj876's blog
Curragh ; Yielding (soft in places)
Cork: Good (only showers forecast but ground can change quickly at Mallow)

Definitely the 2 most interesting cards of the weekend with Wexford as always being moderate and very few betting opportunities on the English cards. There is definitely a deterioration in the standard of the UK Saturday cards with the major books even more so now increasing their policy of putting up decent prize money for impossible betting races.

15.30 Cork - Dollar and a Dream 7/2 -365 Laugh -Price gone now 9/4

This is close to a palp,it's that much of a rick for those that are able to get on with the Stoke firm. 8 LBS for his Galway romp looks more than fair with the competent Donough Meyler taking off 2lbs. This lightly raced 6 yo was a massive eye catcher at both Limerick and Tipp and looks a consistent type that can rack up a sequence for his controversial handler.

I obviously don't have any problem with how he campaigned Quick Jack but there are races that go beyond just playing the handicapping system, Golden spear was an extremely eye catching runner in a handicap on Guineas w/e and also ran very creditable behind Clondaw warrior in a 100k hcap at Galway. However his run in between on Derby w/e was extremely questionable as once again there was a high correlation between a spectacular drift in the market and a subsequent deplorable run. Firm ground perhaps could be put forward as a possible explanation but I think that would be generous.

Fill your hands drifted from 1.45 to 1.98 BSP on Thursday at Bellewstown and Brian Cooper was far from vigorous in the closing stages. I think it would be beneficial for him in the long run if some of the messing was cut out, goes without saying that he is one of the most capable trainers in the country and one of a very few that might be able to put up some bit of opposition to WPM with the right ammunition.

16.40 Cork

This mares maiden hurdle looks a match to me and I am surprised that even money is available on the dutch (bet of the w/e for me). Brogine ran a very creditable hurdle debut when runner up over the minimum trip, the step up to 2m 4f is sure to suit and normal improvement from hurdle debut should make her a lot shorter than the current 3/1. Edith Somerville is also overpriced and this return to 2m 4f should see her return to a level similar to her Killarney run which will put her bang there.

How is Hard Fought 100/30 ?
A maiden after 13 runs over hurdles, R.Walsh rides and PP are charlatans is the answer.

Conduct yourself's bumper form is moderate and although John Kiely has a more than decent record here at one of his local tracks, they tend to improve significantly for hurdles debut.
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Report mincer11 August 29, 2015 6:58 PM BST
Martin is unbackable unless you know and not many do by the looks of things.
As for Powers, their prices are a joke . That particular maiden hurdle sums them up 365 go 3/1 3/1 4/1 and Poxers go 9/4 5/2 10/3.
I could name a horse in every race tomorrow that will not be anywhere near their price this evening, they are taking the pisss bigtime.
Report dj876 August 29, 2015 7:09 PM BST
Aye Mincer,The money for Duel at Dawn yesterday evening was well off the mark and although Little Mitch's form looked strong for the context of the race, it was difficult to get involved with the money for Duel at Dawn. I am sure at times they get it wrong too but the run would suggest it wasn't the right money. Cassels rock punted off the boards on the same card but wins easy under Donough Meyler.

PP are the ultimate parasites.
One thing that I find strange is that in the Irish shops (market is ffectively a duopoly) guaranteed price concession is available but the same concession isn't available in the UK where it should be more competitive. (they have the guaranteed income of the FOBTS there though).

Irish shops have being deteriorating with a while,it's the norm now for opening shows not to come in until 6 minutes before the off with shop punters(non-price sensitive) taking their shocking early prices obliviously.
Report The Gotchee August 30, 2015 10:52 AM BST
Conspiracy theorists convention
Report workrider August 30, 2015 11:17 AM BST
Have laid HHTM @ 2.78 , she won her maiden well and overcame traffic problems in doing so , only had a very brief look at her as she went to post that day , maybe I'm wrong but she looked a little on the small side .Thought Clear Skies ran a very good race on debut and is sure to come on for the run , Miss Katie has some nice form in the book and looks sure to make a bold bid in what appears for her anyway a easier race .Beacon Rock ran a race full of promise and looks sure to come on forthe kind handling and will be my bet in the opener , like a lot from this yard improvement is often forthcoming after a sighter .Finally a little e/w  My Titania @ 9/1 on here ,Oxx yard in much better form and I always liked this filly .
Report tony57 August 30, 2015 2:01 PM BST
the only bet I like is brogine 4.40 as has already been pointed out.
Report tony57 August 30, 2015 4:50 PM BST
dreadful run.
Report The Gotchee August 30, 2015 7:24 PM BST
Thank god,  workrider  brought a bit of credibility to this thread.

These idiots who come on here with match bets and "dutching" the first two in the betting and come out with " How is Hard Foght 100/30?"
Well, she is 100/30 because she is the has the best official rating in the race.

Learn how to interpret the form ya numpty.
Report easygold August 30, 2015 9:36 PM BST
The Gotchee...... I have to echo Callitasucit... I have my differences over the year with Dj876 which is fine....... but you on the other hand is way off the mark.... I admire anybody that beats the book most of the time..... yes the result went against him (horses didn`t repeat the previous debut over hurdles) so what....... It`s a marathon not a sprint ( at the end of the year will decide a lot).
Beating the market is the key to success, it`s only a matter of time when the form holds-up. Remember this, if you get on at the best price most of the time and you trust yourself (i.e studying) you can`t lose......
Report The Gotchee August 30, 2015 10:22 PM BST
Callit/ pro smoker punter, whatever moniker you are using these days,. the fact of the matter is he posted the fav and second fav as Dutch bet at evens. Both were beaten. What am I missing? He slagged off the chances of the top rated horse in the race and you come on here to try and defend the waffle. ( John Kielys local track?)
Clearly that's why you are a mug punter.
Report easygold August 30, 2015 10:27 PM BST
The Gotchee......No wonder I don`t come on here as much as I use too.... pure sh1te comments from so called punters that having a clue....... Ur awful
Report The Gotchee August 30, 2015 10:32 PM BST
You are no loss. Never seen you make any useful contribution. I suspect you are another user name used by pro snooker punter.
Report easygold August 30, 2015 10:46 PM BST
A useful contribution....... I came on many times and did just that...... I remember advising others about one of your selections to keep away from...... Mmmmmmmm duly lost........
All my selections are written down, prices before the off and after the off... where it came.... P/L for everyone to see my dear fella.....
Report callitasucit August 30, 2015 10:52 PM BST
Gotchee, if you keep backing 1-2 shots at even money.....you will win.

If you keep backing 5-1 shots at 10-3.....you will lose.

Best of luck with the latter.

My father used to tell me not to bother trying to educate an idiot, as they wont understand the explanation. Tis the thing about common sense. Its not that common.
Report TellTheKing August 30, 2015 10:53 PM BST
How anyone criticise a poster putting up a selection that shortens significantly and states another that is underpriced is beyond me. The results of one day don’t matter because if you beat the market like that consistently you will be successful (as long as you can get on).

Now easy talks a lot of pony but anybody that disagrees with his 9:36 post has a wind tunnel between their ears.
Report callitasucit August 30, 2015 10:55 PM BST
I see my earlier post got removed.
Report The Gotchee August 30, 2015 11:08 PM BST
Put up your post again callit, give us a good laugh.
It's a pity your father didn't tell you how to read and understand form.
Report easygold August 30, 2015 11:21 PM BST
U certainly don`t understand form...... a 16 raced maiden is rated 98...... the two horses that was selected have the potential to be much better than 98.... yes he was going on one run over hurdles and he needed them to reproduced that form with the normal improvement??? but it didn`t happen....... Most of the country saw it that way too......
Come race time the value then switch to the winner with the experience......... and the possibly of an uncontested lead.........

DJ beat the market........ and come race time he could of easily backed the winner at those odds for a saver........

Am I making sense for you........
Report The Gotchee August 30, 2015 11:35 PM BST
Go to bed ya  Gobsh1te.  "Dj beat the market? How can you beat the market backing losers?
Obviously you have several user names and are taking the pish. Even post race you can't read form?
Best rated horse wins the race and you find that hard to comprehend.
Report easygold August 30, 2015 11:39 PM BST
Ah Jesus....... I`m worse...... I`m gone again for 2 months....
Report kingrat August 31, 2015 12:49 AM BST
move along,nothing to see here.the op is a geezer that does not know what he is at.
Report CheltenhamRoar August 31, 2015 1:42 AM BST
Is this Gotchee Clown for real?Try giving your golden nuggets BEFORE the race is over.
Report pa lapsy August 31, 2015 10:39 AM BST
Just on a general note i thought the results of the Irish meetings in the main strange enough the last few weeks,accept that might be just me but wonder do the nearly daily variances in ground have a part as one meeting could be good to firm and the next days meeting soft.Been like it for a fair while and i always like a runner to come out next time running on similar to on what he has shown.Anyway that's neither here nor there.
Agree that PP early prices have gone very tight with Irish racing.
Can't dispute either with the majority that getting a dutch on with the best of prices is a sound enough ploy though i rarely do it for the reason i'm looking for the winner and part of the dutch is lost straight away, I think where the Gotchee is coming from is the selection should be clearcut and no dangers,different strokes for different folks without saying anyone is right or wrong.
Good to see a racing thread anyway with someone having a bit of balls to put up a pre race thought,on yesterdays racing i had Captain Power down as being a potential dog of the highest calibre early on but is in fact turning into an "ew"  horse as he will always be at least thereabouts even given the next rise,Prussian Eagle was done for speed and 2 furlongs extra see him will also thereabouts again next time.
Report mincer11 August 31, 2015 11:34 AM BST
The gobber is a prikk, actually hes a nasty little prikk too, with a huge chip on his shoulder. The poor chap wouldnt know his arrse from a hole in the ground, although he likes people to think that he is some sort of authority. Now he may fool a half wit like the wonkatonk, but he doesnt fool many else. Auld Dan gives him a gee up every now and then as well, as is his want. He's years on here bigging up the wonky and then hiding from the poor ginnit down in Thurles.
Back to the gobber, he has no concept of form or what prices horses should be. He prefers to back losers at double figure prices than short priced winners, his argument being "anybody could pick them", so we find a big priced loser instead.
Another thing he does and its a sure sign of a complete bellend, when people start disagrreing with the horrible git, he says they are all the same person.
Report workrider August 31, 2015 11:40 AM BST
Pa , Don highlighted a few horses times last week at the Curragh ,he had a issue with the going , one or two horses running to their best ever rating and one of them was a 8yo , so maybe you have copped it as well . As for the VALUE issue been discussed , I think we did that little number to death a while back .
Report workrider August 31, 2015 11:42 AM BST
Mayfield , any of those winners you backed carry a little overweight ,like maybe a HURDLE or two...Laugh
Report mincer11 August 31, 2015 11:52 AM BST
Wonks , you are lucky to be in the priviliged position you are in. Its not everyone can enjoy your idyllic lifestyle, with the golf and racing, greyhounds as well.
I really admire you ,but you are lucky that your kids are such good grafters. This would be as busy time of the year now too, with the All Irelands being on, there will be plenty of customers coming up from the country that need to be looked after.
Between that and Joan Burton, you really have it sorted.
Report workrider August 31, 2015 11:55 AM BST
You and the brother have it rapped up , I hear the prices have doubled since you open the back room...Laugh.Hope you get over that HURDLE ....Laugh  Laugh..
Report mincer11 August 31, 2015 12:05 PM BST
I had to laugh when i see you telling some fella the other day, theres a picture of your uncle inside in some pub. Ya never told him theres a picture of yerself up on the wall in the dole office in Tallaght. The lads in the que are praying to ya at this stage.
Report pa lapsy August 31, 2015 12:07 PM BST
Saturday was the 1st bet on a horse i had for 3 weeks WR,talking to someone else about it and he was of the same opinion for the last while he thought the results were odd as well,i dunno,form seemed to have gone out the window and accept it might be just me as one result is one mans meat and anothers poison.
Calm down there Mincer.
Report mincer11 August 31, 2015 12:11 PM BST
Pa, you are right . Its not fair having a battle of wits with an unarmed man.
Report workrider August 31, 2015 12:14 PM BST
Mayfield maybe I could get you and the brother a shift down my local ,ready cash just what YOUR kind like . Did you ever own up about the brothers little earner and the little room out the back...I hear they are very understanding about your kind of people down the Welfare , if you need a loan anytime soon give me a shout , only remember I don't take piebalds as collateral...Laugh
Report pa lapsy August 31, 2015 12:43 PM BST
Thought Shankleys Dream in the last at Downpatrick has a better chance than the 12/1 quoted(the 5/2 place might be more realistic. I,m not too enamoured with Boris de Blae(accept he could be different class) or Tajseer,both have poor runs to come back against. Whizzey Rascal is a different proposition and should surely run well. 4 times the price on Shankleys Dream(yep tis Rothwell) though seems fair to me considering both have run against Melanna and both were 9L ahead of her.
Report workrider August 31, 2015 4:07 PM BST
McNiff now training along side the Strandhill golf club Pa , a few of his out on the beach Sat morning , has a runner in the next at Downpatrick I note..
Report workrider August 31, 2015 4:12 PM BST
The 3 hour journey paid off..Cool
Report kingrat August 31, 2015 4:41 PM BST
ah no!the gotch put me wide to a 7-1 winner,a nice little touch!
Report Bigwillystyle August 31, 2015 7:14 PM BST
Wonks he has trained there for a good few years!
Report workrider August 31, 2015 7:19 PM BST
Tbh never even knew he was there , we were on the 2nd hole on Sat and Sligored pointed it out to me that the horses on the beach were his .
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