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pa lapsy
21 Jul 15 19:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Apr 09
| Topic/replies: 12,639 | Blogger: pa lapsy's blog
Oor Jock 7.00
Really think this is a 4/1 shot rather than the early general 6/1 and a standout 8/1. The obvious negatives are it will need a clear passage late on and it is his 22nd attempt since last winning.
However it is in great current form,C+D winner,ground suits and is on 68 having at one stage raced in the mid 90's.
Field don't look particulary strong,Keatly's horse is reported to want easier and i'd be surprised if that won,of the rest i'm not too enamoured with anything though Way of Light has improvement and 11L off Jack Naylor last year doesn't read bad at all. Always something in the woodwork in these type of handicaps though.
On his last few runs i can't see Oor Jock not being involved in this an looks a solid ew,maybe vulnerable to someone with a late finishing kick but clear passage and he will again arrive there travelling. Obvious choice but i think his price is too big.
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Report joevalue147 July 21, 2015 8:51 PM BST
Wonder what way the ground will be Pa?
Report pa lapsy July 21, 2015 8:59 PM BST
Going is given as good to firm(watering) and basically dry til then with maybe a bit of drizzle,so my thoughts were it will be fast side of good. I know looking at Ballinrobe you would wonder but i presume that is accurate Joe.
Report joevalue147 July 21, 2015 9:00 PM BST
Ok sound thanks.
Report dj876 July 21, 2015 9:20 PM BST
I like the way Eddie Lynam's lope de Vega filly travels in her races,she bolted up in a moderate Curragh maiden (no AOB/Bolger/Oxx/Weld representative) and although it's more the visual impression than the substance of the form that has reeled me in, the second (5 lengths adrift) has at least won a poor Leopardstown maiden.
Billy Lee wouldn't be the strongest jockey around but these strong travelling fillies often suit him,the way she travels reminds me a bit of Agnes Stewart. Let's hope she has a modicum of her ability for the affable Eddie Lynam.

After race at Curragh Sun, 7th Jun, 2015 (1st) She did it well. We like her and think she might be good. She did that well today after a good first run.   Edward Lynam

As my risk averse nature is well known, I have taken out a bit of insurance (slightly biased dutch) on Ken Condon's Sir Percy filly. Her fast finishing effort at York in a very decent Group 3 (Wokingham winner behind her) reads well in the context of this race as does her other Group 3 run at the Curragh when just reeled in by the improving Ger Lyon's filly Ainippe.

There is some logic to saying just back the English trained representative in Irish sprints and it's difficult to discount Rae Guest's five year old mare who won this event last year but I think Fort del oro might have a bit of star quality and Newsletter has won a listed sprint in the UK this year.

Selections:

19.35 - Fort del Oro - 2 points win @ 7/1
19.35 - Newsletter   - 2 points win @ 5/1   

All alternative views are more than welcome prior to the race.
Report kingrat July 21, 2015 11:18 PM BST
I would give my considered view dj but i dont like the trolls and con artists you are associating with on the irish forum.
Report mincer11 July 21, 2015 11:22 PM BST
Looks a difficult contest , and I may well be wrong but I'd give Lynams horse you fancy Dj absolutely no chance. That breeding needs soft ground and it has a lot to do on all known form anyway. As I said I might be wrong but I'd give it no chance. Newsletter may well have a chance but I'd be gobsmacked if the other one won.
Report kingrat July 21, 2015 11:32 PM BST
do you have any opinion on what might win?maybe an e.w chance like the gotch.put up a selection sport.
Report mincer11 July 21, 2015 11:36 PM BST
Think it's an open race , therefore I wouldn't like to offer an opinion .
The gobber could've a view on the race maybe.
Report kingrat July 21, 2015 11:39 PM BST
tip a horse on any race maybe?otherwise u have no credibility and u becomeing a bore with yre constant negative vibes.Wink
Report wildmanfromborneo July 22, 2015 12:04 AM BST
I think Minalisa is a good thing in the Listed race.

She is a genuine sprinter loves the ground and has won and been second in this very race.
She is in top form this season as evinced by her second in the Ayr Gold Cup.

Fort Del Oro beat Creggs Pipes in her maiden win,she cannot win off 79.
The favourites flip flopped in that race,the original favourite was trained by John Murphy drifted like a barge and shamed himself.
Report dj876 July 22, 2015 12:24 AM BST
Nice to see some forthright opinions even if I thoroughly disagree with them.

Fort del oro won at the Curragh on good ground and is out of a Queen Mary winner and imo she has serious speed.

As in my opening post,I said that it was the visual impression more than the literal form.

However anyone rating her literally through Creggs Pipes needs to re-watch the race as she won doing absolute handstands and it's impossible to quantify her superiority over that as previously stated limited rival.

There was four six furlong races ran at the Curragh day that day, she wasn't ridden out overly hard to the line but still clocked the quickest time easily and that includes Ainippe's victory in the Group 3
Report mincer11 July 22, 2015 7:49 AM BST
It's all about opinions dj, and to be fair to you , it's a rather difficult race that you have chosen . I myself just can't have this filly , she doesn't have the necessary experience either, and also even though Lee has ridden her both days , it would be my thinking that lordan would be ahead of him in the pecking order as far as Lynam is concerned.
My prediction for what it's worth is that she is not placed .
Report pa lapsy July 22, 2015 7:58 AM BST
I wouldn't have a strong opinion on the race either,i would give Fort del Oro a rating of 90+ and stick a P after that as well though. Captain Power and Muthadhamen(two beauts) who were behind Fort del Oro are rated around 80 and were behind on the fillys debut and she was worth at least a stone beating Creggs Pipes.
Know that in a few days what she will get but that may be a large part on tonights run.
Report punchestown July 22, 2015 11:32 AM BST
Fair bit of rain about the last few days,they'd hardly need to water?
Report neill d July 22, 2015 12:09 PM BST
I thought O'Callaghan's ran well behind Toscannini, probably a little flattered but I could see her going well in this.
Report workrider July 22, 2015 12:12 PM BST
Minalisa for me as well ,backed her last year and the year before ,Johnny came and done me .She had a nice pipe opener recently , Guest targeting this race again tells me he has her just right for tonight, shes a mare that would find it hard to win a listed race in UK ,Rae sees this as a chance to win a good race and the prize money is well worth taking home .
Report gemini01 July 22, 2015 4:30 PM BST
Minalisa won this race last year beating a 7f to a mile filly in Tobann and Gathering Power would is not worth a box of burnt out matches, the only subsequent winner that came out of the race was Sassyaway would had to be dropped a stone in order to gain that success, so to me the form of the corresponding race last year is worthless..
Report tony57 July 22, 2015 5:25 PM BST
like the look of newsletter in that race that run @York lto was decent not beat far, anyone got a opinion on the last race?
Report dj876 July 22, 2015 6:24 PM BST

Jul 21, 2015 -- 11:18PM, kingrat wrote:


I would give my considered view dj but i dont like the trolls and con artists you are associating with on the irish forum.


Fort Del Oro - Nr

Out of interest who did you think I associate with on here? I call it too straight for the majority on here and completely avoid cliques. The backslapping brigade are constantly attempting to provoke me but I am much too tolerant to bite Tongue Out

You must have the wrong DJ?

Report kingrat July 22, 2015 7:53 PM BST
move along,nothing to see here.
Report dj876 July 22, 2015 8:21 PM BST

Jul 22, 2015 -- 12:09PM, neill d wrote:


I thought O'Callaghan's ran well behind Toscannini, probably a little flattered but I could see her going well in this.


WD Neil D- That young Smullen isn't too bad-it helps when you're riding against the likes of Lordan and Shane Spencer.

What's the semi-literate rat on about ? He wouldn't know his ar$e from his elbow nor does anyone that punts mug handicap and HT/FT bets.

Report The Gotchee July 22, 2015 8:27 PM BST
Well done Neil d good call, looks like she is an improved and that run behind Toscanini in light of the result was not flattering. The 3 lb penalty did Newsletter.p
Report dj876 July 22, 2015 8:31 PM BST
Hey the Gobshee is able to resurface,no sign of you on Sunday for the 3 winners or Lean and Keen at Ballinrobe. You had the dig Sunday morning but then disappeared??

+74.0 points from Punchestown,all on here in black and white GobberWink
Report kingrat July 22, 2015 8:37 PM BST
so sad!Shocked
Report kingrat July 22, 2015 8:57 PM BST
get a grip dj,i thought you were better than that.Shocked
Report pa lapsy July 22, 2015 8:59 PM BST
Fair play to those that answered the thread and discussed the nights racing,bad night for me as i couldn't see Oor Jock not getting a place at least,but Dec somehow managed that. A little break til Monday.
I was puzzled with the ground there,everyone wanted to be away from the rail and i'm not sure was that right,i got the impression whether right or wrong that they put a lot of water on.
Nice winner Neill D,good shot.
Report dj876 July 22, 2015 9:03 PM BST
Your a leech and until you pay the money you owe the other forumites, you have no business on this forum.

Yourself and the Gobshee are well matched,two cretins.
Report kingrat July 22, 2015 9:04 PM BST
OLD PA      =     TOP CLASS LICK ARSE



Laugh
Report pa lapsy July 22, 2015 9:09 PM BST
No Rat,no licking at all,you arrived on the thread when they were losers with f all to say beforehand,that is the fact,no sign of ya on any other recent thread,so what's the story?,it took ya a while but have your moment.
Report dj876 July 22, 2015 9:14 PM BST
I presume you would apply the same criticism to the Gotchee pa lapsy?
Report pa lapsy July 22, 2015 9:15 PM BST
No i won,t Dj.
Report dj876 July 22, 2015 9:16 PM BST
The blinkers firmly in place.
Report neill d July 22, 2015 9:17 PM BST
Thanks boys, only had the bare minimum on and she owed me a little from Carlisle! By no means a strong selection really.

As she's an Azamour, it will be interesting to see how she ends up. Very atypical type of horse so maybe more to come. Liked the trainers comments post-race re the Toscannini race, wouldn't say Mike likes to hide his light under the bushel but the market didn't say they really expected that!
Report pa lapsy July 22, 2015 9:19 PM BST
Are they? A well done to Neill and neutral observations on the race is a different thing.
Report The Gotchee July 22, 2015 9:32 PM BST
You have a very selective memory dj876. I wished you luck with your selections the other day and in all fairness you did well. I can't understand the dutching system you use. Smacks of a lack of confidence and sitting on the fence. Everyone to their own. You were unlucky with Newsletter but with all your knowledge and waffle you still can't understand form. On a line through Toscanini you should have been able to work out that Newsletter couldn't finish ahead of Letters of Note. That's why I said Newsletter was unlucky with her three pound penalty but obviously that went over your head. Neil d was able to pick the winner without the waffle or fanfare you crave. Keep away from the sherry cabinet, you are making a show of yourself. Furthermore, "self praise is no praise" You have abused so many people on here I wouldn't think many would have much time for what you spout.
I know you are still hurting.
Report kingrat July 22, 2015 9:37 PM BST
well said gotch,i am getting lessons of old pa.Laugh
Report workrider July 22, 2015 10:26 PM BST
No joy tonight and Gemini is spot on re Guests mare , never a factor and looks as if shes not in love with the game anymore , she looked great in the parade but did nothing in the race, maybe they should send her off to the paddocks. Strangley the winner was wearing a hood in the parade ring but never ran in it, maybe I'm wrong there , will have to look at the replay .A very poor card overall doubt there will be many future winners coming out of tonights racing.
Report kingrat July 22, 2015 10:35 PM BST
WORKRIDER     =    EL MUG



Laugh
Report tony57 July 23, 2015 12:18 PM BST
over the past few weeks this site has be quiet but has had some good threads and everyone is has been respectful..win or lose,..lets try to keep it as such as we go into galway lads..
PLEASE ANYONE WHO READS THIS IGNORE KINGRAT do not engage with him for any reason on any matter..when he goes away this site is so much better.
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