((((( " THE OPEN " ))))) Championship - St. Andrews.

On here with..........

FRASER 1000/1 + T10 & T20 markets.
LUKE at 80/1 6pls.
Top Am Oliver 7/2 Spoils (stealing money).
Ryan Palmer last week @ 150/1 was too big.

Going to be a great weeks golf ahead,the biggest problem is not to end up backing too many golfers,ive broken my selection down to three main bets and four small e/w bets,
Il start off with Rickie Fowler who is one of the best links player in the world,he will be in great form after his super win last week,the worse the conditions the better for him,
Second selection is the great Tiger Woods,came back into form on his last outing,loves the course and has won here before,how could I not back him,
Third selection is Adam Scott,another previous winner of the open,showed some of his old sparkle in the Us open,and he will be at a great advantage having Williams back on the bag for him,
Outside bets are as follows,
Raf Cabera Bello,
Gary Woodland,
Thomas Aiken,
P Lazzaazabal,

Selections,

Rickie Fowler 28/1 e/w 6 places,bet was done last week,

Adam Scott 20/1 e/w 7 places,

Tiger Woods 33/1 e/w 6 places,bet was done a few weeks ago,


Raf Cabero Bello 150/1 e/w 7 places

Thomas Aiken 250/1 e/w 7 places,

Gary Woodland 150/1 e/w 7 places,

P Lazzazabal 200/1 7 e/w places,

Also done a Trixie,
Jimenez top senior player 11/8,
David Hearn top Candian player 11/8,
Richie Ramsey top Scottish player 11/4,

Correct sorry for the mistake,best of luck with your selection Premier,

Dustin Johnson 12/1
Excellent links player who will be suited by the soft course conditions.

Hideki Matsuyama 35/1
Asian players invariably figure in The Open inc Matsuyama who finished T6 A FEW YEARS AGO.

Shane Lowry 45/1
Gritty battler who will be suited by poor weather and a real links test. Very impressive so far since joining PGA tour this year.

Ian Poulter 100/1
Hitting the ball well this year even though he hasn't got his head in front. Often goes well in the Open inc T3 in 2013.

Francesco Molinari 100/1
Striking the ball unbelievably last few weeks but suffering the usual struggles as regards getting over the winning line. T9 and T15 in this last 2 years and offers excellent e/w value.

Russell Knox 200/1
Another player whose chances will increase if the weather deteriorates. T10 last week @ Gullane and could figure @ a huge price.

Good luck.

Also have few quid at big prices.

Poultar 120
Mahan 280
Bjorn 320

Some decent prices around this morning.

Yeah WH very competitive at the moment, top price on everyone.

Weather seems to be changing daily though Apple. By the sea it could change hourly. Probably just going to have to see what happens. Hopefully it doesn't scupper half the field like 2010.

Will back Gonzo in States myself. Was waiting for the Canadian to do him, but this week seems a decent opportunity.

callit,
      could you work your magic for me again please?20e e/w on?

best of luck apple, im not a golf punter ..although I have a small e/w interest in the big ones..callit won me a grand last year ...

huddys your a gem..thank you..and callit..ive just had 25e e/w..betfair just offered me a 50% back if I don't make a profit?..so really the bet is 25e..

Some big prices tempted me
Kaymer 46
Tiger 50
Snedeker 60
Casey 46
Bubba 50
Reed 85
R moore 360
Blixt 550
Berger 730
Tringale 920
Probably backed too many ....gl

A cracking week in store, with so many in with serious chances now that Rory McIlroy is unable to take up what seemed a superb chance of another major.

Ante Post:

Having backed Danny Willet a good while ago for the US Open due to his superb Links record, I felt it would be silly not to have a dabble on him then for this as well. Pretty much the same price now, I don't feel the need to top up, but certainly wont be surprised if this improved performer is on the premises again come Sunday.

.5pt e.w Danny Willet 125-1

Market Leaders:

In Rorys absence, the future world number one Jordan Spieth assumes the mantle of favourite, and deservedly so. Having been championing his talent for the last 3 years, its slightly galling that the only return I got from his two major wins was an in running bet at 3.4 in the US Open. I will run the risk of further self chastising this week, as I have left him out of my staking again. If he is in contention come Sunday though, and I have no financial interests left, I will cheer him on. He is an absolute class act on and off the course. A thoroughly likeable young man.

Ricky Fowler comes here with maybe the best possible preparation, having been successful in Scotland, but his price offers no juice now. In any case he is a player I seem to never get right, and I will leave him alone.

Justin Rose has drifted markedly over the past few days, and is tempting. Similar with Phil.

The one player though who I feel leaving out may prove costly is Louis Oosthuizen. I just cant bring myself to back him at the prices, even though nearly everything points to a championship challenge.

My Fancies:

I had planned on having everything from the betting balance to the childrens college fund on Rory, but unfortunately had to abort that plan!!

One player who I was really afraid of when planning the wedge, was Martin Kaymer.

Like Spieth, the German is a total class act, personally and professionally. Having read Steve Palmers article this morning, it felt like I had written it myself. I have been imploring plenty to get on the double major winner since Rorys withdrawal. When Kaymer was interviewed after his US Open win last year, and asked about his next target, which should obviously have been Hoylake, he was pretty adamant that his next big one was this week. When Germans set targets, they usually meet them!!

Kaymer loves this place, and has the course form to back it up. A Sunday 74 cost him the runners up berth here in 2010, and he ahs made birdies for sport in subsequent Alfred Dunhill appearances. He has been tinkering, but always seemed confident in interviews that he was heading in the right direction. France suggested that he is right in that assertion, and I think granted no bad break draw/weatherwise, he seems sure to close. There aren't many in the field who I would rather be on in the heat of major Sunday battle. There isn't anyone, bar Tiger, Shane or Pod that I would rather see win, form a non monetary viewpoint.

Henrik Stenson probably should have won a major by now, but you could say that about plenty of players. Its about time he took one by the scruff of the neck and put a W beside his name in one.

This could be his week. He has put in plenty of preparation on a track he has shown he can go low on, and handle whatever wind and rain may be thrown at them. He was out in the horrific conditions of the afternoon on the Friday here in 2010. Most others from this half disappeared without trace, Stenson rallied with 67 71 over the weekend. He played very well at the US Open, but holed absolutely nothing. If he can averagely this week, he will be in the hunt. If he putts well, he will take some stopping.

What players said years ago, might seem a strange way about picking players for this week, but its a route that has led me to perennial bridesmaid Sergio Garcia.

When Garcia won the 2008 Players Championship, the nearest thing to a major, the first person he thanked in his ceremony speech was the absent Tiger Woods. Sergio has a mental problem, he doesn't believe he can beat the best, and could never down the Tiger. Last summer he consistently came up short in all the big ones against a rampant Rory. Rorys absence may give the frail Spaniard that belief that he needs, the belief to get him over the line on Sunday. Its suggested St Andrews may not be the best Open venue for Sergio, and results back it up to some extent. I would be prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I would love to see Shane Lowry win. And if like Sergio he believes he can, then he might just do it.

Its taken Shane a while to feel like he belongs in the worlds elite, but I feel his stint on the PGA Tour is helping him in that regard. If the wind blows from Friday through Sunday as promised he will licking his lips at the challenge. Most wont be of a similar frame of mind. Like Stenson, Shane didn't hole his fair share at Chambers, and that will be a problem most weeks. But his distance putting was superb, and if he can improve his 10ft and in performance this week, we could be in for a day to savour as a nation. A 75 on Sunday in 2010 deprived him of a potential top 10 here, he is much more the finished article now. The dream should live til Sunday afternoon this year too.

Brandon Grace went mighty close at Chambers Bay, and to my eye was more unlucky than Dustin Johnson.

Grace had one bad swing which maybe cost him the win, having done everything right all weekend when in contention for the first time in a major. His performance was highly creditable. Having overcome that disappointment, his thoughts would have immediately have turned to this week, at a venue he has had success at before. He wont mind any wind that is thrown their way, and he looks set for another fine week. 

A player who I believe just has to be backed on value grounds is the mercurial Jonas Blixt.

I have long been a fan of this fairway avoiding, putting machine. Well missing the fairways wont punish as much here as anywhere stateside, and his putting will be a huge asset. I believe his game is as made for this venue as it is for Augusta. He nearly netted me a massive payday there at similar odds there two years ago, and at the odds this week, he is a cheap dream of a big payout.

Yes he isn't in great form, and is wildly inconsistent. That wouldn't bother me. Its just made the price. He strikes me as a jack the lad, who enjoys life, and probably doesn't give golf the attention that some of his opponents do. But Augusta certainly got his juices flowing, and I feel he will rise to the challenge here too.

Another player who will be relishing the week ahead is Victor Dubuisson.

Along with Kaymer, he was one of my first bets this week. After going through a rough patch he has turned things around in recent weeks. He lit the place up here with 11 birdies in a first round 62 here in the 2012 Alfred Dunhill, and banged in 7 more on Sunday for good measure. Since his Lazarus style near win in the WGC Matchplay two years ago against Jason Day, he has looked the type to win a British Open in his career. With his game face now on, early quotes of 90-1 were well wide of the mark, and he has quite rightly been widely tipped up.

I threw a few quid on Blixt, David Howell, Soren Kjeldsen and POD on here for trading purposes at massive prices.

Howell has enjoyed success here. Conditions over the weekend could be very similar to what Kjeldsen triumphed in in the Irish Open.

Top Player Markets:

I usually try to find a false, or dodgy short priced favourite in these sections, but three that stand out to me as bankers are Kaymer Top German, Garcia Top Spaniard and Dubuisson Top French.
Not only do I obviously expect all 3 to have good weeks, I see very little danger form many of their compatriots. Only Rafa Cabrera Bello and Alexander Levy worry me, so have had a good go at the treble. Strangely, and probably contradictory I was close to sticking a few quid on Levy on here at 310. But though I think that price may be too big, like Bello, I wouldn't want to be with either in short priced markets where their temperament can prove very costly when they can very easily go form top 5 to 60th in one foul day. When Levy controls his emotions he will be some player.

At 1-2, 5-6 and 6-4 the treble pays just under 6-1. Cant see it beat myself!!

David Howell and Danny Willet look sporting selections for Top Englishman. Its a group where anyone could prevail, and those at the head of the market don't inspire huge confidence. At 22-1 and 14-1 e.w on two Links experts, there are certainly worse bets to be had.

2pts e.w Martin Kaymer 40-1
2pts e.w Henrik Stenson 25-1
1pt e.w Shane Lowry 50-1
1pt e.w Brandon Grace 50-1
1.25pt e.w Sergio Garcia 40-1
.65pt e.w Victor Dubuisson 80-1
.3pt e.w Jonas Blixt 300-1

4pt Treble Kaymer, Garcia Dubuisson Top Markets 5.875-1

1pt e.w David Howell 22-1 Top English
1pt e.w Danny Willet 14-1 Top English

.5pt e.w Victor Dubuisson First Round Leader.

Best of Luck all.....its nearly tee off time!!

Late money for Sergio .  Has had too many chances and failed though for me .

Luke Donald might come back to form , the course does not need overpowering .

Pity Rory is missing , has skewed the market .

Bit of 30s offered on Louis there. For peace of mind, I added him!!

1.5pt e.w Louis Oosthuizen 30-1

Jordan picks up where he left off!

16 years ago , Tiger and David ( Duval) were 1 and 2 in the world , by a long way .

Yesterday one was described by a friend at the course as looking like a lost soul , and the other was hitting stingers on the practice ground . Not working for Tiger , out with a wood now on the 4th , hits a fairway .

Things change .  Need to for Tiger , only plus so far has been leaving the ball pin high , albeit wide of the pin .

Great recovery from Shane after a horror start. If he could find two more coming in he might not be too far off the lead by days end. Though the way Jordan playing.....

a lovely start, DJ on the lead and Charl only 2 back (pity he bogeyed 17)

Superb round from Willet.

Tough out there in the afternoon.

Another 66 from Willett would be nice. I'm on at 170/1!

WILLET matched as low as 8.0 is going to drop out of the running soon