Irish Sports
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Obvious starting point here is top weight Hasanour, Mick Halford after his last race quote gave the impression he was heading to Galway next but the fact there is such a big pot here obviously swayed him to take this in.
Both his wins came at the Curragh where he seems to have an affinity there, held up he travelled well and quickened in both,he did pull a bit in both and more so on his last win. Ground tomorrow will suit,the trip is 2 furs extra and a stiff finish at Navan,he also carries 10lb more than last time. I think the trip will be okay unless he takes more of a hold than last time. The weight rise is a big question mark,using Beau Satchel as a guide he seems to be improving all the time as he beat that horse by a similar distance each time they met by giving him first 3lb, then 8lb and finally 19lb.He looks a big framed horse.
Unsinkable is a major player,a clear cut course and distance winner in lesser class,he followed up with him not getting the extra 2 fur at Mallow,he travelled so well until weakening though. Up 2lb for that he will probably be prominent and i suspect possible he could get caught late.
The Weld pair haven't shown enough to me,Vedelago raced in Italy,the bare bones of just over 2L behind Parish Hall would usually be great form but think fav didn't perform that night and the Weld horse finished tamely anyway. Victor then Shalaman ran with credit in a 125k Lingfield race and i,m not sure what to make of his last run where he was held up last in a messy race,a question mark with him though the gut is saying he prefers sand.
Rummaging booted the form of He's Our Music tonight,doubt he is good enough though but may get a place.
I'd be surprised if I'll be your Clown reverses form with Hasanpour despite the 10lb better for around 4Ls.
Beunos Y Bobos is very interesting,i,d be inclined to forgive him for his Ulster Derby run,he just pulled too hard,his beating of Postulation before that was deserved, he is certainly the "joker" as such in the race and getting nearly a stone and a half off the top weight is a lot. Will he settle tomooow?
Conclusion;
I see no shortage of pace in the race ,Beunos Y Bobos,He's our Music, Unsinkable i,d expect to see up there, Hasanpour will again be held up and given the above fancied horses like to race prominent i think it is a plus in his favour. With the away from the Curragh,2 extra furlongs, 10lb penalty and slight worry of taking a hold the 7/2 is probably near enough right. Mick Halford probably thought long and hard before letting him go for this but with the pot size it is understandable. A play for me,i hope he is a nice little lamb out the back early.
Both his wins came at the Curragh where he seems to have an affinity there, held up he travelled well and quickened in both,he did pull a bit in both and more so on his last win. Ground tomorrow will suit,the trip is 2 furs extra and a stiff finish at Navan,he also carries 10lb more than last time. I think the trip will be okay unless he takes more of a hold than last time. The weight rise is a big question mark,using Beau Satchel as a guide he seems to be improving all the time as he beat that horse by a similar distance each time they met by giving him first 3lb, then 8lb and finally 19lb.He looks a big framed horse.
Unsinkable is a major player,a clear cut course and distance winner in lesser class,he followed up with him not getting the extra 2 fur at Mallow,he travelled so well until weakening though. Up 2lb for that he will probably be prominent and i suspect possible he could get caught late.
The Weld pair haven't shown enough to me,Vedelago raced in Italy,the bare bones of just over 2L behind Parish Hall would usually be great form but think fav didn't perform that night and the Weld horse finished tamely anyway. Victor then Shalaman ran with credit in a 125k Lingfield race and i,m not sure what to make of his last run where he was held up last in a messy race,a question mark with him though the gut is saying he prefers sand.
Rummaging booted the form of He's Our Music tonight,doubt he is good enough though but may get a place.
I'd be surprised if I'll be your Clown reverses form with Hasanpour despite the 10lb better for around 4Ls.
Beunos Y Bobos is very interesting,i,d be inclined to forgive him for his Ulster Derby run,he just pulled too hard,his beating of Postulation before that was deserved, he is certainly the "joker" as such in the race and getting nearly a stone and a half off the top weight is a lot. Will he settle tomooow?
Conclusion;
I see no shortage of pace in the race ,Beunos Y Bobos,He's our Music, Unsinkable i,d expect to see up there, Hasanpour will again be held up and given the above fancied horses like to race prominent i think it is a plus in his favour. With the away from the Curragh,2 extra furlongs, 10lb penalty and slight worry of taking a hold the 7/2 is probably near enough right. Mick Halford probably thought long and hard before letting him go for this but with the pot size it is understandable. A play for me,i hope he is a nice little lamb out the back early.
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Difficult punting at the moment before the markets are liquid,it feels at the moment that an even larger percentage are being prepped for the bigger meetings and owners seem to place a premium on Galway winners(above the prize money). I have definitely had bets over the last couple of weeks where the market has smelled and the subsequent ride has corresponded.
On a similar note two of his main dangers are trained by DK. Is it such a pot that it mitigates for "the prep run" scenarios? Is Hasanour a Curragh specialist? 5 of his last 6 runs at the Curragh and beaten only time away from there off 87. Maybe he needs pace to settle but a strongly run race over 10 furlongs at Navan is a fair test of stamina,catch 22? Never raced over further than 8 furlongs apart from Listowel when beaten off at 87,that wasn't due to a lack of stamina but he will have to almost improve for the trip to win off 105? Why no mention of this race after the Curragh and the owner's preference for Galway? His record with a short gap (13 days) between races isn't fantastic and generally seems to need a month. After race at Curragh Sat, 27th Jun, 2015 (1st) I'm thrilled with that. Shane said he travelled really well and when the gaps appeared he was able to take them. That's a good trip for him and he loves it here. He may go to Galway. Richard (McNally, owner) is a big Galway fan and he won there last year. The other option is a £150,000 handicap at Goodwood but I'd say he'll go to Galway. He didn't get into the Hunt Cup at Ascot but maybe it was a blessing in disguise as the ground was very fast. He's a very straightforward horse to train and winning like that gives them confidence. He could end up in Dubai some day. M Halford After race at Galway Thu, 31st Jul, 2014 (1st) It all worked out well as it opened up nicely for him. It's been a nightmare week for us until this but this horse is settling better and has plenty of pace. He can step back up in trip again and he'd get another furlong. M Halford I thought unsinkable(6/1) was the most solid option with the winning c+d form (1.42 IR over 12 furlongs lto) but would also give his stablemate Buenos Y Bobos (8/1) a very decent chance after patently not staying over 12 furlongs (1.65 IR) in the Ulster derby premier handicap. Hopefully you're right as couldn't be listening to Ger Lyons with those awful shades again. |
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I tend to look on Mick Halford's change of plan as a bit of a positive and rational on his behalf as the heavens could open in the next couple of weeks,the horse is well now and he looked at the decs. You raise a very fair point in regards a gap between races.
Colin on Unsinkable would have me on him rather than Beunos. Not inconceivable that Beunos will lead and the "baton" could be passed to Unsinkable who will be directly behind him through the race,think if i was Ger that would be my instructions to the pair,i'd hope He's Our Music has some say to scupper that up front. The market spoke volumes late on in Hasanpours May Curragh win(didn't see his last one). I,ve a lot of regard for Hasanpour,the rational side of me is screaming the negatives but the gut is saying at his price he is worth chancing as it doesn't seem the strongest race other than the Ger Lyons pair. |
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To add fuel to the fire Mick said in todays Post, he'd have prefered if the race had been at Leop for BOTH his runners, plus he added,this has been the plan for Castle Guest for a while.
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Antique Platinum and Unsinkable both very strong in the market,also money for I'll be your Clown.
Beunos Y Bobos and He's Our Music both weak particulary the former. |
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The betting spoke about Dk's two in the end in the win/place market and both ran accordingly.
No pot large enough to tempt DK at this stage of the season but we will have the King of Ballybrit fawning in a couple of weeks time. Incredibly lazy comment in the RP to say that Vedelago was undoubtedly the stable choice,it's a while since P J Smullen rode at 8-4 Messy enough race , Unsinkable was backed of the boards and probably is still well handicapped over an easier 10 furlongs or shorter the way he traveled. Some might criticise Colin Keane for going a bit early (with hindsight) but give me decisiveness over exaggerated waiting tactics any day. I think Keane is excellent and he's a massive improvement from the likes of Keegan Latham for Lyons a few years ago. Another winner for the Keately/Corby combo.5 winners and a 1.13 IR second for Keately from his last 6 runners and all ridden by Corby. |
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Antique Platinum went from 5.6 to nearly 10,s in that 20 minutes,be a different horse at Galway alright but in the context of this race i didn't think it was good enough and looked a "false gamble".
It was a bit messy indeed and only just over a half length separated the first 5, was a bit disappointed with Hasanpour all the same,he seemed to got the trip well but took an age to get going,stayed on well but just lacking top gear,he was very far back but so was Shalaman, Unsinkable was the moral winner and is a lovely horse,surely next time. Good spot by Bigwillystyle flagging Keatley up,he seems to placing his "average" horses very well. |
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Fair Assessment,Shane Foley rode yours like a doubtful stayer but he's always held up to be fair,still had him way too far out of his ground and then was short of room in the last furlong.
Difficult to say that he's better at 10 furlongs as they were all closing on Unsinkable and as you say Shalaman probably finished best of all. I was very unsure about the race beforehand and tbh still not sure what I would take out of it with them finishing in a heap, Unsinkable with less of an emphasis on stamina but sure that will be more than priced in. Hasanour can certainly win off 105,interesting to see where he runs next as is probably a bit better than that run. |
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great thread I enjoyed it...
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Twas a nice thread albeit unsuccessful,hopefully it may be a blessing.
Double figures tomorrow and more pluses than Navan in more than a few ways,9lb better off with the dangerous Unsinkable for less than a length,right ground, and his course.The draw is a negative though. Hard to evaluate both Loch Garman and Archangel Rapheal,the British pair shouldn,t be too far from each other with preference for Green Light who had a luckless run last time.Ifs and buts with that trio and am finding it hard to make a case for any else.Any thoughts? |
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I'm saying for years how I can't understand why English trainers don't target all the big Irish handicaps.
The handicapper lets them in on their own ratings yet there is a discrepancy as the English handicapper always makes Irish horses carry more. A sweet little 90 Grand for the winner of the last in Leopardstown ,two hurled in English trained beasts are first and second.. Two other English trained beasts lurking in this 90 grand race makes it hard to back the home team. |
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The English handicapper cost the Irish a couple of winners at Cheltenham this year,his treatment of Portrait King was very poor for connections this year as the almost usual 6lb was whacked on and will be the case again next season with any Irish handicappers going over.
It isn't reciprocated by the Irish handicapper which is very probably right as the trust in another country,s handicapper shouldn,t really be questioned. Fair point in regards tomorrow,it is hard to put Green Light in particular in perspective,could be anything and hard to measure,my view would be trying to put the Irish horses in order but agree the question mark is there with cross channel raiders as it is often a target. |
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Hopefully you struck with that one(George Bowen) Wildman,not supposed to back slap or anything on here but some very astute pre race comments from you the last few weeks i thought.
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Baby if you give it to me
I'll give it to you I know what you want You know I got it Baby if you give it to me I'll give it to you As long as you want You know I got it Bust Rhymes feat Flipmode Squad & Mariah Cary |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDaNJW_jEBo
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