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It doesn't look a very inspiring card to me and have decided to have a small speculative dabble in a race which according to the betting is the most competitive.
8.20 - Danse Rouge @ 5/1 (ew)
Pat Flynn's filly was really eyecatching on her handicap debut at this course in a stronger race imo (ran from 2lbs out of the HCAP),she was second last with a furlong to go but finished with a rare late rattle to snatch fourth a length an a half behind a subsequent Leopardstown winner. You would be inclined to think that this step up in trip should suit the way she finished there and is racing off her proper mark here.
Pat Flynn is a notoriously streaky stable and 5 winners from his last 40 runners suggests that the yard is in form. Danny Grant isn't the first cousin of a competent jockey and is replaced by a master,it's difficult to quantify the differential but it's significant.
15.15 Hamilton - Monsea - 13/2 - PP (ew)
I would have this Manduro gelding at 7/2 or shorter and will be a bit surprised if he doesn't run a major race. He is still relatively lightly raced for a 4yo and is absolutely chucked in on his 2yo form when with Richard Hannon. He was then rated 87 and the shrewd Brian Ellison now has him down to a mark of 71 (placed of 80 in Jan). He ran a race full of promise lto in first time cheekpieces, being tenderly ridden but doing all his best work in the last furlong over 10 furlongs. This step up to 12 Furlongs looks like suiting on his last run and the CP are retained.
8.20 - Danse Rouge @ 5/1 (ew)
Pat Flynn's filly was really eyecatching on her handicap debut at this course in a stronger race imo (ran from 2lbs out of the HCAP),she was second last with a furlong to go but finished with a rare late rattle to snatch fourth a length an a half behind a subsequent Leopardstown winner. You would be inclined to think that this step up in trip should suit the way she finished there and is racing off her proper mark here.
Pat Flynn is a notoriously streaky stable and 5 winners from his last 40 runners suggests that the yard is in form. Danny Grant isn't the first cousin of a competent jockey and is replaced by a master,it's difficult to quantify the differential but it's significant.
15.15 Hamilton - Monsea - 13/2 - PP (ew)
I would have this Manduro gelding at 7/2 or shorter and will be a bit surprised if he doesn't run a major race. He is still relatively lightly raced for a 4yo and is absolutely chucked in on his 2yo form when with Richard Hannon. He was then rated 87 and the shrewd Brian Ellison now has him down to a mark of 71 (placed of 80 in Jan). He ran a race full of promise lto in first time cheekpieces, being tenderly ridden but doing all his best work in the last furlong over 10 furlongs. This step up to 12 Furlongs looks like suiting on his last run and the CP are retained.
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3.15 ham monsea nr...
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Tis a pity you have over a hundred views on the thread and not a single comment.
As you say the up in trip should surely suit Danse Rouge as she was bumped along quite early last time,nice run indeed though her tail flashing late on would be a slight worry. Not a particulary strong race,Beechmount Whisper ran very flat last time and personally couldn't be interested in him though had Best Kept Secret behind at Navan. Best Kept Secret who was ridden well to hold off the flying Buzz Off Barruso last time had Torthai Na Ghra (didn't handle bends) and Mighty Fine(fairly badly hampered),both finished close up and no surprise if either reversed places with the winner that day.Lucie Re plugged on at Leopardstown and doesn't appeal along with the rest of the field. Be very surprised if you aren't at least placed. Bet 3.65 opened Firecrown up at 11/8 and unsurprisingly that didn't last too long. |
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Flynn is a hopeless trainer. Still that horse caught the eye big time in a better race. However wont back it today as would much prefer for her to have had another run under her belt and for it to be her third run of the season.
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Flynn is far from hopeless-a friend of mine went to school with him and is still friendly with him but finds him impossible to read.
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Thanks for that Eddie
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Two iffy ones for me tonight were Uninhibited in the first and Laganore in the second.
I thought Laganore was trained by Dermot Weld during the race,I think Tony Martin is copying the old maestro. |
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Eddie Batt, your friend finds him hard to read because he doesn't know what he's doing , the man is impossible to read for that reason only. He's a bit of a streaky outfit, has a few winners in a period of six weeks or so and then he doesn't count for the next 46. His modern day record over hurdles must be one of the worst in Ireland.
If Flynn trains a horse I was fancying , then I'd consider him a negative , a big one in fact. So much so that there's no way I'd back it. You won't miss many winners by sticking to that plan, how many does he even have in a year?, and the majority of those are in races that nobody would want to bet in. Dan, those were predictable enough all the same , one a newcomer and the other coming from a stable far from prolific in maidens . There was one horse who ran last night who took my eye, one that was ridden by the slimiest of them all, well supported all day, then the late drift, the slow start , the lack of urgency , the token effort from the home turn, and then allowed to come home in its own time. It may well be no good , but I have no doubt in my mind that it got no assistance . How anybody even entertains putting the guy up is truly mind boggling . |
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Who is the slimiest of them all ?
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It shouldnt be too hard to work that one out Dan, if you were watching the racing last evening and it appears that you were, then you can hardly have failed to spot this little masterpiece.
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It shouldnt be too hard to work that one out Dan, if you were watching the racing last evening and it appears that you were, then you can hardly have failed to spot this little masterpiece.
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the bould wl i presume!!?
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Is that Jolyne you are talking about Mincer? I know if i said black twould be white at the moment but a card while not unusual for Gowran had very odd results and stinkers by fancied horses.
The betting beforehand on U S Navy Seal was very telling. |
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There was a huge late drift on Jolyn alright.i put that down to a proper reading of her form,that Leopardstown maiden was a poor race.
The running on Alveena has since disgraced herself at Naas,Timbuktu has also let down the form. Jolene is a three year old filly by Makfi owned by Qatar racing,they desperately want a win with her,the problem is where she is stabled. She could do with some Carmody care. |
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Pa, im not going to be drawn into saying who it is. The drift and the subsequent ride is there for everyone to see.
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Dan, Qatar wouldnt even know they own her not to mind be desperate for a win. The boss of that mob didnt even bother to go to Ascot, not to mind being worried about winning a knobb maiden in Gowran.
Racing is a team sport, the owner ,trainer and jockey all need to want a horse to win, sometimes not all three are thinking along the same lines. |
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Fair point.
The massive late drift would worry me as would the start. |
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The reason few Arabs were at Ascot is because of Ramadan ,its seldom you see them when this time of fasting is upon them , even THEY have a image to protect imo..
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I said to Davy (Russell) before the race that this is a special horse. Davy said he won with a lot of ease.
Quote above from Pat Flynn after Atan won in Roscommon. Says it all really. |
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Runs off 70 tomorrow in Tipp
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Alveena did not disgrace herself last week.
It is very likely that she surprised them first time up and Roche must have panicked when she looked like winning. For a filly that will stay well, it was no surprise to see her kept to the same trip last week and she will have one more run soon so that she will be readied for Galway. I would think the race Timiyan won last year is likely to be on the agenda. It would be interesting to know if she galloped at Rosewell on the day of the race last week. My guess is that she did and it was unlikely to be a gentle spin. She will be nicely treated when she steps up in trip. |