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20.15 Be seeing you -15/8 best priced now, opened with Lads at 11/4
Nothing original about this selection and another 4yo running in a 3 mile handicap under a 4lb mandatory penalty.
We have had some very recent examples of how capable this stable are of turning them out quickly under mandatory penalties with the likes of Esthihal and Mustadrik.
This Medicean gelding was handicapped generally on soft ground or over the minimum trip or both. This is a better race than he won at DP with 4 other last time out winners.
However the most crucial considerations are that he has both of his premium conditions ie a trip and good ground because on his run the last day a 14lb penalty wouldn't stop him.
I will begrudgingly say that Paul Carberry should suit.
Speaking of begrudging, all opposing views are genuinely welcome but especially before the race.
Nothing original about this selection and another 4yo running in a 3 mile handicap under a 4lb mandatory penalty.
We have had some very recent examples of how capable this stable are of turning them out quickly under mandatory penalties with the likes of Esthihal and Mustadrik.
This Medicean gelding was handicapped generally on soft ground or over the minimum trip or both. This is a better race than he won at DP with 4 other last time out winners.
However the most crucial considerations are that he has both of his premium conditions ie a trip and good ground because on his run the last day a 14lb penalty wouldn't stop him.
I will begrudgingly say that Paul Carberry should suit.
Speaking of begrudging, all opposing views are genuinely welcome but especially before the race.
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Replies: 26
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Surely DJ the value is gone on him? I mean that is quite a big move on the horse from 11/4 to and 15/8 in a handicap hurdle seems shortish. Anyway GL with your bet.
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Well Rocket,bad form from the begrudgers to be jumping on your thread the other night after the race
The opening price is irrelevant when discussing value in relation to current price. Have you watched the Downpatrick race Rocket? He's at least 10 pounds well in (runs with a 4lb mandatory penalty),you're guaranteed that he is in fantastic form and has both his optimum conditions, ground and trip. You could be right but I wouldn't say 15/8 is a bad price just because it's in a handicap hurdle. How would you price the race? |
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On what basis do you think he will beat Na Tracthalai Abu?
He has 11 lengths to find with NTA and he is only 2 lb better off. He is a four year old and ran only 4 days ago. |
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You should be familiar with a bell end graph (aka Gaussian curve)
The trough has to be reached before the inclination can begin. |
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He'd be well familiar with bell end graphs I'd say!
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You work on probability, I prefer to look at the form.
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You're without doubt the biggest bell end on here.
Googled a gausian curve and reads about normal distribution curves and thinks this means I am referring to probability when I am just ripping the p1ss out of you. How the heck can you work out the probability of a horse race without reading form? As for anyone reading that form literally god bless them,ie attaining the trough. Sweet Divine  |
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Gotchee, you are some tool!!
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It would be interesting to know if this one travelled over to Perth on Sunday.
Was only withdrawn around lunchtime which suggests it had done so and the trainer withdrew it on account of the good to firm ground. Surely that would be a negative , but as i say it would be nice to know one way or other. |
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Id say its unlikely that it travelled to Perth. Another new phenomenon in racing on this side of the sea is the complete disregard the top stables show towards the people who regulate the sport. O Brien and Mullins were the two main offenders but Elliott has joined them lately. There has been instances where the dogs on the street are aware of non runners from these stables even the night before a a race, yet they arent withdrawn until an hour before the race. Another thing they do is when they declare multiple horses in a race, everybody seems to declare the riders by 10.30 but these lads decide until 2 mins to 1 to notify the authortities, even though they know whos riding them with a week.
I dont know for certain but the chances of be seeing you being in Perth are minimal. |
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Backed Posh Frock e.w in that at 14s. Still actually 16s in 365, though has been cut to half that by some firms.
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dj876, wheather you were on at 11/4 or 11/8, it was given another truly awful ride by that clown carberry, how far back does he really need to have them in a race.......
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Wouldn't have won tonight wherever it was positioned.
Posh Frock should certainly have been placed. Butler must have been trying to find out if it stayed 5 mile!! |
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at least give it some chance callit, not 20 lengths behind leading horse with 7f to run, what does he think it is a fooking airplane
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Horse would never have won on the night but at least the market moved in the right direction always a good sign tbf for a bet. I would like to ask the low life tony57 to stay off this thread, he likes to jump up and down when somebody loses a bet on the forum.
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Left It plenty do alright Gemini, but I suppose when backing a type like that with PC on board, its part of the package.
Seemed a bit flat. Some horses don't reproduce their running again within a couple of days. Hindsight is great, but he is probably one of them. |
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Carberry is a kn0b (but there wasn't a JC) but wouldn't blame him too much there,horse didn't jump with any fluency and didn't seem to relish the step up in trip either, perhaps signs were there as hit the second last a heavy clanger at DP in a weak race. Looks a bit of a bridle horse now in contrast to the game Mustadrik.
I managed to get €15 on in Ladbrokes last night in Dublin at 11/4. I went into this kip of a shop first (always a good sign when you have to ring the buzzer),girl on her own there on her second night. Her supervisor was punting in the PP shop close by so had to wait 15 minutes until he came back. He said it should be grand I will just ring up,sorry you can have €15 at 11/4 and the rest of your bet at SP. My patience was well and truly rattled at that stage,asked was the price been cut or could I have anything at 5/2 or 9/4 just told no.I don't often frequent lads shops so wasn't aware that apparently prices from the night before are for online only now. I had plenty at 2/1 in the PP shops though unfortunately. Anyways as Borneo would say I am off to the woods to lick my wounds and to have a good rest from the negativity on here which consistently comes from the minority. You wouldn't mind if they were witty or could form a coherent opinion but this "landed" and "you're still hurting" is embarrassing banter. |
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There be nothing but the negative types left on here shortly. Waiting to lambast a losing selection, yet having not had the ability to have had a pre race/pre event opinion themselves. Ideal types for opposition government.
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The Crispians have hit the wall.
The point and shoot thread where they went against a Godolphin "good thing" today (even though they have an insider in the the Godolphin yard) was Comedy Gold. A clueless evaluation of form was their downfall tonight. The Downpatrick race was an egg and spoon race in which there were only two previous hurdle race winners and one of those was at Cartmel 3 years ago. Tonight's race had five previous last time out winners and it was asking a lot for a 4 year old to reappear 4 days later to run in a far surperior race over 3 miles. I am just surprised the "clued in" dj876 didn't off load his healthy 2/1 punt when he could have laid at 11/10? |
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True the Downpatrick race was a poor one but if fairness he won that pulling double. Also those who evaluated the form probably took his run behind AROD into consideration. Hard to see any of tonight's rivals finishing 2 and a half lengths behind an animal of that class. Been beaten 7 lengths by a future Leger winner wasn't a bad run on debut either. Granted it was only over a mile against Arod and 7f against Kingston Hill but he got 2m4f on his head lto. Just didn't perform tonight for whatever reason.
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It's plain to see by the amount of traffic on this forum that it's on its last legs nowadays . There are some real tools on here though in fairness and it's easy to see how nobody bothers with it anymore . You have apes giving their life stories on it, other guys praying that people's selections don't win, and then argumentative morons who have no knowledge picking fights with others who do.
Wonky gobshee catch me are the three biggest ginnits but there are quite a few more who I'm not going to list as it wouldn't be fair . |
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not to mention certain people writing filth about others' family members, eh mincer
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I never noticed you writing any filth about anybody Freddie , I just had you down as some harmless mock Provo .
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wise up pal, or you could be joining your mate in the sinbin
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NeddieK only has friends on here, we are all his pals, bless.
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unlucky dj
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