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02 May 15 11:12
Date Joined: 01 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 6,249 | Blogger: dj876's blog
I rarely have a bet in the Guineas at Newmarket and think I will take a watching brief again today.

If I had to make a selection,I would say Estidkhaar is a solid ew option at around 7/1.

The previous Group 2 race intrigues me,initially you look at it and think Pether's moon is rated 7lbs inferior to Telescope and giving him 3lbs, you  then watch a replay of last year's hardwicke where Telescope pulverises Pether's Moon of levels by 7 lengths and think it's a formality.

However I was massively impressed by Pethers Moon's seasonal debut which he normally significantly improves upon and Hughes replacing Dobbs is another positive. Stoute's as per normal are needing their seasonal debuts and Telescope was stuffed on his seasonal debut last year. (10F on heavy by a soft ground horse though just to give balance)

3/1 massively underates Pethers Moon's chances but my enthusiasm is tempered by the fact that Telescope has his trip and ground. I think with a strong travelling horse like Telescope you can't quantify how below his rating he's liable to run if under-cooked. I think it might be a case where the potential    ease of victory overshadows the actual probability of the outcome.

3/1 is more than fair on Pether's moon imo but I presume most on here will agree with the odds and think Telescope will win hard held??
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Report Santry May 2, 2015 11:30 AM BST
If Telescope is close to peak he should win getting 3 lb from Pethers Moon but i'm more than happy to take 3/1 given his good run last take ,assured fitness and the fact he is uncomplicated. You will back far worse 3/1 shots.
Report callitasucit May 2, 2015 11:50 AM BST
I have never been a huge Telesope fan, his Hardwick win being the one time he has looked as good as advertised by connections.

Pethers Moon has often looked a tricky ride in the past, and not one to really knuckle down, but he really impressed with his attitude on his seasonal reappearance. That run could prove pivotal to todays result, and 3-1 is definitely a bet for me.
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