Irish Open 2015

Facts . Rory hits the ball high , death sentence when there is wind on a links course . The no brainer was to lay him instead of trying to pick a winner from the other 153 or so . Congrats to any who did , still cant understand how anyone would still want to back him at 130 or so .

First friend I met today out on the course had been following Rory and co early . His comment re the early starters was " virtually no one seems to be able to read the greens " . RCD greens are true , any good putter can figure out the lines , doing it is another thing though , even when the greens have slowed up like todays ( lots of serious showers ) . I watched 3 or 4 pairings through the 10th hole , 4 players in particular hit the green with their tee shots , all of them 3 putted probably the easiest pin position you could pick on the hole .

Everyone is going to have a bogey or two on their card , trick is to take advantage of the holes which are easily reachable in the current weather / wind conditions . First and twelfth were gimme birdies , both par 5's , Rory hit an enormous drive down the first , probably a 7 iron second to a 35 yard long green  with huge aprons, and bunkered his second . Really poor , all you have to do with that sort of drive is to poke the ball onto the green ( straight) and take your chance with your putter .  You cant overpower a course like RCD , you have to take what it offers you . Rory again hit an enormous tee shot down 13 , but today the play was a 4 wood otherwise you run out of fairway , one player I saw hit an iron off the tee to the perfect position for approaching the green . Strategic golf .

Great to see Padraig up there , busy too recently , he played Walton heath on Monday , but he knows how to craft out a score on a course like RCD .  Just hope he can keep up the gallop .

Eleven was an impossible birdie , pin position required a run in type shot ( down wind) to a pin posion essentially on a slope , 90% of current players on tour cant ( or wont) play that sort of shot -- which is easy if you know how but requires bottle and control . It is not all trust to luck , its how you play certain holes in certain conditions .

Some poster mentioned Christy O'Connor ( senior , himself ) . Saw Christy one day  in a "practice mode " exhibition match ( common in the fifties / sixties ) . One of the gallery asked him how he played a certain shot with a certain iron to a short hole . Christy proceeded to hit the green with any club you cared to mention , half shots , cut ups , run ins etc . True links golf , adaptability , use the ground contours and the climatic conditions .

Reckon Christy was the best links golfer any of us will have seen --alongside Peter Thomson ( who won 5 Opens ) of that era . No Locke  or Crenshaw on the putting green though Christy , streaky betimes . But use the ground , not the air necessarily .

While there is no doubt that Christy O Connor was a fine wind\links player descriptions of him as the greatest links player ever are well wide of the mark.In an era where Peter Thomson won 5 Open Championships O Connor's record of two top 3s in 29 attempts is more deserving of the Timeform squiggle than any "greatest ever" tag.
I must admit though that I think Wildman is spot on about Ben Hogan though.His "veni vidi vici" win at Carnoustie in the 53 Open must rank as on of golf's greatest achievements.
On the subject of Mc Ilroy I think his career has been tarnished by rounds like today's. In his prime Tiger always dug deep during a mid round crisis to prevent embarrassing outcomes like today.However the inability to find a way to grind out a score is starting to become Rory's Achilles heel.

My God that was some finish by Christy O'Connor to win that year,there are very few golf in the past or present who could do that,just shows how good a golfer he must of been,looks like is going to be another hard days golfing,

Difference between Christy and Thomson was that Thomson was a great putter .  That never applied to Christy , think he learned to putt with a 3 iron ( as did Fred Daly) .

Paulie was right, up all night he was. Had the aul lads plamassing from evening till 4, then cleared the lobby and party time with Nadia and the rest from Grafton Street till it was time to play golf again, was just like the R Kelly song!

Just turned it over to watch the "golf". 100 mph winds, rain like youve never seen in your life, crazy golf on grass basically.
Sergio going well, really delighted he came, same as McIlroy basically, and we will see how much Fowler wants it in the afternoon. Not too much i suspect.

That's what makes it the ultimate test.
It ceases to be target golf you have to make your shots,have to improvise.

If he was such a poor putter then the accolade of greatest ever is surely a misnomer.The facts of the matter are that in an era far less competitive than the modern era he failed to win an Open Championship in 29 attempts.It is quite frankly ludicrous to suggest that a player could possibly be the greatest ever links player when he never won the Claret Jug.

He was a poor putter alright,I would say he would have hated Augusta.

His play in the wind was sensational,his improvisation was impressive.

OConnor won all that British golf had to offer with one exception.
Yet he was still the most consistent golfer in the Open in his heyday,the 29 figure is misleading.

I can't accept the bland assertion that golf was less competitive then,I think they were better players in the sixties and seventies.
Jack Nicklaus,Arnie Palmer,Gary Player,Lee Trevino and Tom Watson would win tournament after tournament if they were around today.

To be fair I was referring more to the decade from 1955 to 1965 when O Connor was in his prime and most of the players you mentioned were not really on the scene.
He may well have won all that British golf has to offer but it was a bleak era for British golf in general. 
I can accept the fact that you consider my assertion on the quality of opposition in that era bland.However you cannot seem to see the inconsistency in pointing out that while at the same time asserting that a player who never won an Open could be considered the greatest links player ever.If he were genuinely great he would have figured out a way to win one.

Sergio certainly threw the towel in very early on yesterday Paulie.

Rory is just putting like a blind man. Though with 5 under looking likely now to make the weekend, I have a feeling Rory will stage a rally and potentially make it. A big ask, and not worth backing at anything under tens. But if he finds two shots before the 13th, he will have a huge crowd willing him to pull out the extra two needed. The champion that he is, I would expect him to respond to the call.

Ricky is revelling in the challenge presented to him, and is certainly enjoying it, and giving it his all. If Rory can get something going, it may in turn help and spur Ricky to an under par finish. And tournament favouritism.

Willet could be a few shots better already today...putter cold.

They would in their hole win tournament after tournament, according to you everybody was better at every sport 50 years ago. I heard clowns like you Dan saying ,that  the drunk Best was better than Messi, Gordon Richards was the best jockey, the same old shiite all the time.

OConnors best year was 1970.

His play in windy conditions was the best ever but the fact he was a poor putter contributed to him not winning the Open.
I can't recall a British Open of his era that had the savage conditions of Birkdale when Harrington won it or Troon the time Woods had the huge score.
I do recall however a tournament played in savage conditions where OConnor posted some phenomenal score which had him eight shots clear only for the round to be scrapped.

Mincer stated earlier you could win a tournament with a hurl in those days,Tolmi asserted it was less competitive yet the only evidence we have is the performance of golfers that straddled the different eras,that evidence suggests that the golfers of forty years ago were far superior to the present crop.

Mincer I never rated Gordon Richards and have said so many times on here.

There will always be a tendency to look at the past through rose tinted glasses but equally when the young see someone at the top of their sport they immediately brand him the best of all time.

Messi does look the best to me.
Ryan Moore doesn't and neither did A P McCoy,Ruby a different matter although not at his best recently.

What evidence is that exactly ?, the stuff gathered at the bar in Jaxxy's every night most likely.

I heard you on about Richards Archer and many others from yesteryear, one thing you have is a selective memory, a very selective one.
As for Ruby not being at his best, what a load of tosh.

What evidence??

Tom Watson winning the British Open in 1975 and then 34 years later missing out on winning in a play off.
He led the tournament from day one in Turnberry and only lost the lead on last hole.
That field had all the modern great golfers in it including many that weren't born when Tom Watson won the Open in 1975 yet here was an old man with the yips and he all but beat the lot of them.

In another sport boxing we have strong evidence that Ali was the best of the last fifty years.
He beats George Foreman in the Rumble in the Jungle forcing Foreman to retire whilst still in his prime.
Foreman returns twenty years later as a fat middle aged man and wins the World Title in 1994.

Rory finds one, Ricky follows him in......lets see some fireworks boys!!

No selective memory Mincer I have consistently said Richards was overrated.

I am a great admirer of Fred Archer but strangely enough I never saw him.

Huddys asked me to lob up that he has backed Cabrera Bello e.w at 66s.

I can imagine Huddys payslip.....

Gross...
PRSI...
PAYE...
USC...
Cabera Bello...

Net...

You forget to tell us Dan, that boxing is the most bennt game in sport, and thats saying something, and there used to be one belt, and then they had about 30 of them.

Seriously wildman that's your evidence??

Boxing has zero to do with anything and your example of Watson was a once off.I'm surprised you didn't bring Roger Milla and David Bryant into it as well.

You made a couple of statements that are clearly not backed up by fact yet you are not man enough to admit you were wrong.

In order to back up your blind faith in O Connor you state that he was the most consistent player of his era in the Open.However in 25 of his Opens Peter Thomson was also in the field and guess what Thomson finished in front of O Connor in 20 of these.Do you still stand over your assertion?
The simple fact was O Connor was by far the best Irish player of his era and for a considerable part of his career close to the best in the Bitish Isles.However given the dearth of talent in the UK at the time it wasn't any great badge of honour.Factor in that for at least half his career Americans didn't really play in the Open it is glaringly obvious that his failure to win the Open was indicative more of a nearly man than the greatest ever links player.

Its only a discussion to me, I don't research things just rely on memory.

You are obviously right about Peter Thomson being more consistent although that was because he was a better golfer,certainly a better putter.
Thomson won tournaments all over the world,OConnor didnt really travel

I acknowledged earlier that OConnor was a poor putter but my memory of him is as the best wind player around.
I should have clarified the best links player to best links player not to win the Open,probably should have clarified that further by saying from tee to green.

What happened in Turnberry in 2009 was heart breaking.
Tom Watson led from round one was sensational,Cink the eventual winner was never in front had no pressure and beat an exhausted man in a play off,it still rankles.
You say it was a once off but it was a straddling of eras which gave us a chance to compare and contrast.
In some ways its a futile exercise but its enjoyable and its not geared for declaring winners.

Nicklaus,Palmer,Player and Watson would have been champions in any era.

Just back from a fairly exhausting day at RCD , reckon there has been a shower ( sometimes severe) nearly every hour since Wednesday . Tough golfing conditions when the sun is not shining ( which it did betimes ) .

A lot of the guys dont know how to best play their shots on a course like this .  Have seen some putt when they should have chipped , others putting when they should have chipped . The greens are excellent , and not too fast ( God knows what some scores would have been had they left the greens at over 11 on the stimpmeter ) . But yesterday I saw some top players miss straight putts from 3 feet without even lipping the hole . Rory doing just that at present on TV rerun .

I backed 5 players pre tournament , two of them are joint leaders , the other 3 retired or withdrew .  All duck or no dinner , how can so many supposedly fit athletes pull out of tournaments after starting ?  My sixth fancy ( Lowry) breaks his putter .  My putter is 60 years plus old , not a mark on it , still works well , and occasionally I have hit approx 200 yard shots with it ( in rotational 5 club competitions ) .

Re "older players " from different generations , James Bruen still arguably holds the course record at RCD , set in 1938 .  Same course as now , 16th par 4 replaced by a new one for the Walker cup of 2007 . Equipment and ball changes since then nullify any extension in length brought about by said improvements .

The main reason the Americans were better up to end of 1970's was the ball . They played 1.68 , we played 1.62 .  Since we changed and over the last 30 years lots of the best players in the world have come from Europe and the ROW . Take Tiger out of the American figures and you are left with no Americans dominating golf since Jack and associates . 

Christy never played in his heyday with the bigger ball .  Reckon he would have improved his win record if he had , as it is a lot easier to putt 1.68 vs 1.62 . Christy would have loved the conditions over last few days at RCD , an opportunity to showcase his ability to play golf in the wind on a great links course . Padraig the nearest we have had to Christy in repect of adapting to conditions such as these , and we all know that Padraig  has not been at his best since his 3 Major triumphs due to various factors ( some known only to Padraig) . Yet he threatened to run away from the field this morning .

Fact is a lot of the current top golfers learnt to play in ideally set up conditions , cant blame them for that . If you want those conditions you play mostly in America , or South Africa , or Australia , or Spain , or parts of Asia . You will only get conditions like that mid summer in these parts ( if you are lucky) , but everyone who wants to play golf world wide has to accept their local conditions . Golf is different in all parts of the world , climatic conditions , grass , etc , it is partly what makes golf interesting and challenging .

Complete carnage out there today. If Wood can get in on two under, he could win it.

Bello is playing well though, just putting poor. And Kjeldsen has settled down. If he could find a birdie soon he might be on the way to victory.

Had a few quid on Kjeldsen at 332 average before start, traded some out at 3.05 yesterday. Had in for more at 2.02, but didn't quite get that low.

Take your pick , callit . Also backed Kjeldsen ( 350) , but traded out early ( and still a bit ) . Exceeding expectations .

Soren Kjeldsen - Winner
Betfair Bet ID1:51081208742 | Matched: 27-May-15 21:17:46

Back

330.01

14.25

--

4,688.25

Matched 


Soren Kjeldsen - Winner
Betfair Bet ID1:51079788111 | Matched: 27-May-15 20:29:21

Back

340.00

15.75

--

5,339.25

Matched 

....As I didn't put it up earlier in  the thread. Also backed Hoey, Doak and Matt Fitz at big prices on the machine. Fitzy threatened for awhile. Doesn't quite have the winners mentality at weekends yet.

Jesus, Kjeldsen caddy be getting a rollicking if he worked for Bubba!!

One thing was a certainty there, no matter who won this rubbish, Kelly would be on him.

I be sick if Pepperell wins. Huge fan, expect him to be better than Euro tour dross. Proving it today.

Big putt coming for Kjledsen. Has been very tentative with the putter...

Ryan Palmer looks a very good bet at 2.3 in 3 ball later.

In what should develop into a 2 man game, Palmer seems much more likely to play to his best than Hoff who has started consistently well of late...only to consistently blow the weekends.

That missed 3footer could prove costly. 2 up 4 to play, would have been nice cushion.

Sour grapes mincer .  He hasn't won yet , anyway I always trade out .

He was unlucky on 18. Hit two great shots.

Tee shot here a good 30 yards shorter than regulation.

Well done Kelly, you really are the greatest.

Wall of death putt . Great finish , must be cosidered for the ( British ) Open .

As predicted -up steps Mr.Nomark to fall over the line in the rain-swept ,wind-battered Irish Open. Gentlemen and Ladies I give you the world 303 -Mr Soren Kjeldsen...
--- that's Kjeldsen with a 'J'.

Kelly was in like Flynn when Callit (uncharacteristically) opened the door for a 300/1 aftertime.

Callit responded genuinely by posting his bet in an attempt to distance himself from the man that never loses.

A miracle man - His selections posted before the event never win but he still never loses and yet smoehow doesn't pay the premium charge. 2+2 = BS

I have to pull you up on that one now Dj, kelly never afterimed a 300/1 winner, it was in fact 350/1.
Those extra 50 pts could make all the difference.

Well done to any who had the winner,  I had a few back myself but the only one that came up was laying Rory at 2.02 to be in the top 5.

Presumably someone disbelieves my assertion that I backed Kjeldsen at 350 .

Let them put their money where their mouth is , I will have 10grand ( sterling) on with them at 1.01 if they dare , winnings ( £100 sterling ) to go to injured jockeys fund ( receipted ) .

Betfair to verify .  I dont know how to post up bets .

So shut up or put up !

I backed 5 players , laid 2 back pre play , the other was Quiros( no lay back ) , other than Kjeldsen and Wood  3 of my 5  retired pre cut .

dj876 , you should know better than querying me .  Everything I post is accurate and honest , and not befuddled by detail .

There is a deafening silence from the doubters and begrudgers !

May 31, 2015 -- 8:20PM, Kelly wrote:

dj876 , you should know better than querying me .

Reference my first post on this thread , Eric Brown won the Irish Open in 1953 , largely courtesy of a hole in one at the ( brilliant --then ) 16th hols at Belvoir Park . Talking to the general manager of Belvoir on Friday , he told me that Eric's daughter visited Belvoir early this week and played a courtesy round with 2 friends .

She was at the Irish Open on Friday , was delighted to know that some of us who watched her father win were about , sadly our paths did not cross .

The cream certainly didn't rise to the top, and paulie does have a point about links courses introducing too much of an element of luck. But I would love a similar winning score at St Andrews this year. The problem being that if 2 under wins there, irt means the wind has been howling, and half the field probably got rode at some stage.

Kjeldsen seems a decent sort. He himself was a victim of a poor draw in Shane Lowrys Irish Open. Those that played the Friday morning that year had at least a 5 shot disadvantage. There was no real draw bias this week, and he proved how he can handle such conditions.

I rarely lay off, but I usually aim to win about 3k off the win part of any outright golf bet, so it would have been silly not to trade out of some IMO. So the bet I posted wasn't pure profit, I traded out at 3.05, 2.68...backed back at 7....laid again at 2.02, 1.56 and 1.21.

A bloody nice result all the same. The rest of my selections were not up to much.

Danny Willet will go close to getting second at St Andrews. Eddie Pepperell showed superb temperament today. I quite fancy he may win an Open one year himself. Likeable attitude.

WD Frank and TTK on your top 5 lays. Ye never had a moments worry.

Kelly,

Your billybigballs act does not impress me.,

10,000/100 is hot air as you know well BF can't verify confidential information.

Anyone that mentions amounts of money on here loses any remaining ounce of credibility with me.

What does the above quote mean?

It seems to suggest that we know each other outside the forum or that you have previously being able to confute a previous assertion made by me.

You have consistently aftertimed on here and this is one for the worst,claiming to have backed a leader at 350/1 when he's trading at short odds.

I absolutely confute the accuracy/veracity of your posts on a number of grounds.

It started last year when you started a thread claiming that Dublin were a fantastic price at 1.2 to beat Donegal. You later claimed to have traded out at 1.15 despite there not being a fleeting mention of trading out and the tone certainly suggested that this was the furthest thing from your mind.

You claim to be profitable on here with 13 years but have avoided paying the premium charge by laying back huge amounts on Tiger years ago. This assertion is mathematically nonsensical and fraudulent and to be frank a child wouldn't believe that concocted bull. The variance in the times that you laid back and the amount of times you profited/lost on the exchange would relatively balance itself out and certainly wouldn't provide a buffer against 13 years of profit.

You're forever claiming to be consistently profitable on here which is unusual in itself imo and contradictory to anyone that is successful. Your posts on here are full of cliches and old yarns which might impress a few old stagers on bar stools. There isn't any post you have ever made that would allow me to think you have an edge in any sport. Your posts on racing resemble that of a novice directly translating form without being able to even acknowledge the variance in conditions.

Anyone that mentions amounts of money on here loses any remaining ounce of credibility with me.


I would agree with that. And I only mentioned amounts in my previous post as had posted the bet earlier.

A euro is worth the same to one person as 1 million is to another. Its all relative.

On a side note......As my ould lad used tell me....self praise is no praise.

I believe Kelly in this instance.
He got irked when he was questioned but he wasn't able to put up his bets unlike Callitasucit who I also believe.

Kelly did however offer brilliant odds for those who disbelieve him,if I was in that camp I would have me hundred quid in hand and be heading for the Slieve Donard.

How can mentioning amounts of money lose you credibility,surely it makes your bets verifiable.
I'm not computer literate and know my limitations but by mentioning my bets I am exposing myself to being caught out if the bets aren't there.

The best bluff called here was done by Limestone Lad.
Kingrat said such and such a horse had no chance and he would lay it at 4 or 5/1,Limestone Lad said he would take 3/1 and put up 2000 to back at that price,it remained there in all its glory untouched,result spoofer exposed.

A truly nauseating end to this thread.

dj876 , will you take the bet ?

If not , shut up , and stop trying to put people down .

dj876 , your statement that I have consistently been profitable on here over 13 years is fantasy and proves you only believe what you want to . I have never claimed to be profitable on BETFAIR over 13 years , otherwise I WOULD be paying premium charge .  Even a child knows that .

Fact is that EVERY bookmaker in UK and Ireland where I have had an account has closed or limited my account . Likewise I was barred in most of the local shops . Even you should be able to figure out why . And most of my bets were on horses .  Maybe I am a good pin sticker . Or lucky . Or well informed .

I find Kelly a honest guy and would find no reason to disbelieve him, i say well done to him and Callit for picking the winner; lets leave it at that.

I have given you my viewpoint.

I never have and never will have a bet on this forum,please feel free to claim that as some sort of victory if you wish.

You're barred because you're an arber,hardly a badge of honour though it might impress the old stagers at the bar. GL.

Thanks you frank60 . To be honest the only reason I had an interest in the event ( given that I attended on Tuesday , Wednesday , Thursday , and Friday --which excluded me from my normal betting essentially ) was because my sister in law was stewarding for the week at RCD and she badgered me into doing a few bets between us  , just for interest .

Kjeldsen and Wood ( my selection on here) were joint leders after 2 rounds , I always trade out keeping some up my sleeve . I posted that on here at the time , without mentioning the names . There's many a slip twixt cup and lip .

I just rang Betfair and asked them did you back the winner Kelly. The guy on the phone said "are ya joking, doesn't Kelly back every winner". Sincerest apologies to you Kelly, I'm so sorry I was sceptical , please forgive me.

I will take that as a climbdown dj876 .

The reason they closed my accounts is because I won money off all of them . Not sure why bookies close accounts , cant always be  because people are nicking the odds  . If someone nicks the odds and keeps losing , why would a bookie act ?  JP never closed accounts , he fed off them , which in my opinion is cleverer .

Anyone who does not arb when the opportunity presents itself is an idiot . The bottom line in any business is profit , if you figure out a legitimate way to make money only a fool would pass it up . Every business in the world lives on trade , betting is no different .

Badges of honour belong to the medieval ages , often associated with religious  and political crap . Profit is paramount , about the only topic on which Margaret Thatcher ( Lord rest her) and I would agree .

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit , mincer . And for reference re golf I seldom try to back winners , just improvers ( hopefully) . In a normal 156 runner event there is only one winner , but dozens of opportunities elswhere to trade and make a few quid . And a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush .

Well whatever about anyone else Kelly , I'm not climbing up or down . I've seen your type many many times , the ones that never lose. The geniuses who never cease to tell you how it's done. I don't believe a word you say regarding betting , not a syllable in fact.

WD Kelly. Fairly cringeful to think that was a climdown but I have been around this block too many times before with you so will leave it at that.

You're certainly ahead of the curve. Always take the quick,unsustainable profit even if it closes your business.

mincer , anyone who has not figured out how to use the exchanges is wasting their time . I was a punter for nigh on 50 years before the exchanges came about . A selective punter though , non addictive , disciplined , and bookies were refusing some of my bets before the exchanges arrived .  Win only , or SP for instance .

I dont regard myself as a punter nowadays though , generally I look for something to lay , its easier to pick losers than winners . Not available through previous 50 years . And they also dont give out badges of honour for picking losers . Its low profile .

The two clowns call out a man, he offers them a huge profit for tiny stakes if they are right,yet the haters refuse the bet.Says it all about the gobshytes,Well done Kelly and Callit.

As with some of your other posts dj876 , I find myself scratching my head as to what you mean . the last sentence in your 23.23 post is "Always take the quick , unsustainable profit even if it closes your business " . Another fantasy / invention of yours re my posts ? What does your post mean ?

Profit is  alwaysdesirable , unless overheads outweigh it .  And being greedy often results in disaster , Celtic Tiger stuff . I have never been greedy .

Something you say above Kelly reminds me of a story I heard which shows what a great bookie Sean Graham was.
Other bookies in the ring took their lead from Graham's odds.
One day at a run of the mill meeting a punter approached Graham and asked for £100 on a 25/1 shot.
Graham accepted without a blink. Shortly after he scrubbed the 25/1 on his board and chalked up 33/1.
All the other bookies followed like sheep whereupon Graham sent a friend of his around laying off the bet to smaller amounts @33/1...ending up with £100 @ 8/1 to nothing ! Brilliant.
I don't know whether that bet won or not but I presume Graham made quite a profit over the years using similar tactics.

I played golf every Sunday with Sean , Vubiant  , along with another bookie friend . And we talked betting for 4 hours or so in between shots .

Sean talked about" betting for the book " , he seldom if ever bet himself , at heart he was a layer . But a clever one as instanced in your post . And he hated anyone who bet each way , in fact the first bookie who ever refused me a bet was Sean himself when he was working for his uncle Matt in Townsend Street pitch . I did not know him then , but our paths crossed when I started to work in Dublin and he was betting through PF .

havent got the time to read the thread has someone tipped an amazing 100/1 shot again

What I cannot figure out is how Kelly has trading by the short ones yet cannot figure out copy and paste?

Never have needed it Telltheking , no profit in it either . Could master it I suppose , but only if the Injured Jockeys Fund gets its £100 .

All the one to me and anyone else on here Kelly whether you had the bet on. It’s the constant after timing that grinds peoples gears. It’s to no ones benefit. That along with the “re-inventing the wheel” jabber wouldn’t be long rubbing people up.

From what I can see, your MO is buy low, sell high. I’m sure anyone involved in trading had those sentiments in their mind when they joined betfair.

May 31, 2015 -- 11:43PM, Kelly wrote:

As with some of your other posts dj876 , I find myself scratching my head as to what you mean . the last sentence in your 23.23 post is "Always take the quick , unsustainable profit even if it closes your business " . Another fantasy / invention of yours re my posts ? What does your post mean ?Profit is  alwaysdesirable , unless overheads outweigh it .  And being greedy often results in disaster , Celtic Tiger stuff . I have never been greedy .

Self explanatory - Arbitrage utilising fixed odds books is unsustainable over a time period. Take profit = closed.

Trading on one platform ie an exchange involves the  risk of predicting the movement of the price.

Profit taking at each positive oscillation will result in negative cumulative long term results.

Such a repetitive and basic discussion point that I do not wish to repeat again.

When I joined Betfair , Telltheking , the attraction was better odds , ability to lay , and limited in running availability . Other options became obvious to all but the blind , I advised any fellow punters I knew about the options . Few jumped the fence , guess it came down to an assertion my uncle always made--" Dont ever forget , 90% of people are lazy and will take the easy way out" . Inaction often the easy way out .

Betfair was based on the stock exchange matching principle . Guess who makes money on the stock exchange every day --the traders ! Whether it goes up or down generally . Some would find the stock exchange boring , I dont touch it myself , but if it makes you a few bob , why not .

Anyone know what dj876 is talking about in his 00.52 post ?

If you back a horse at 3/1 and lay it at 5/2 you can guarantee a profit based on simple sums . Positive oscillations ?  negative long term results ? --if you keep losing you stop , pronto . The only criteria is profit at the end of the week , if you start losing , you stop , or change your methods/ systems .

Sharp minds on BF.

This is what remedial classes with Wonks and Kelly must have been like at school.

Good night Mr.Soros

People who cant explain what they mean leave me scratching my head . And if they also attempt to talk down to others , inevitably you walk away . And  as for insulting remarks ... , generally shows you have lost the argument .

Sean Graham was charismatic and innovative and Vubiants story captures him in a nutshell.

It also captures the present problem with gambling.
All seem to want risk free gambling.
Racecourse bookmakers nowadays just want to retail your money,the old idea of me against you is anathema to these gentlemen.

Its why Des Fox is still missed.
Its also why I am old fashioned in hating taking profit,you've had your bet just let it run.

I can understand why people want risk free gambling , because it is consistently profitable . Anyone who rails against it flies in the face of logic .

Having said that , the old days were better craic , essentially then the bookies would take you on and it was man against man ( no female bookies in those days ) . Sean and Des were both well known to me , Des taught in a school on the Ravenhill Road  before he went full time bookie .  Fearless layer , sadly missed , taken out by the scum .

The current crop of bookies just want to recycle bets at a profit  , dont know why anyone bets with them if they have options on the exchanges where they will get better prices . Obviously except someone with premium charge problems .

Eventually some of the racecourses will twig on and instal a "betfair betting shop follower " instead of the Tote . That will kill the bookies .

Very good story Vubiant. Simple, but brilliant.

I wouldn't call many, if any, of the on course layer actual bookmakers anymore. Basically traders. And traders that are in the majority seriously lacking in balls.

On course bookmaking is now sadly a thing of the past, its unfortunate really as it has certainly diminished the attraction of going racing. The vibrancy has gone forever from the ring, and all thats left are people who know nothing else, a few who have other outlets to make money and just go through the motions, and then there are some who are just trying manfully to eek out a small living. In a game where turnover is down massively and expenses continue to rise, its easy to see why there is almost no new blood coming on stream. You could count on one hand the amount of new operators that have surfaced in the last 5 years or so.
The game has changed so much, a bit like many games. Thats just the way life is, you can be sure that the workforce in say Dunlops, Fords, Waterford Glass and countless others thought they had jobs for life, but they didnt unfortunately.
There are things happening nowadays that you would have thought were unimaginable, one time the off course firms stuck money on horses to shorten them up to reduce liabilities, now they stick money on horses that they know well cannot win.
It really is staggering and makes the game so much harder to read than it once was.

" off course firms stuck money on horses to shorten them to reduce liabilities,now they stick money on horses that they know well cannot win "

Surely its your opinion they cannot win.
The statements are not contradictory as shortening the price is their aim.

One of those " cannot win " ones won,Alvaro in Dundalk I'm sure there are plenty of others.

Its not my opinion at all wildmanfromborneo, i  would get to know of horses the odd time who are in no way fancied, and these firms are also aware of it. They will have more knowledge than anybody in reality, but they use this knowledge to shorten horse in weak markets that they know cannot win.
Its a new phenomenon and one which makes even harder for even the most hardened of punters.

Not fancied does not mean can't win.

Have any of them ever won ?

Am I wrong about Alvaro ( Mick Halford trained horse in green colours ) ?

These horses shouldnt win and there would be very very few which would slip through the net.

Just a little note for DJ,in his book High Probability Trading, Marcel Link, states on page 13. I've have known people who have completely blown out $5,000 $25,000 $50,000 $100,000 and $5million accounts and everything in between; NO ONE IS IMMUNE. Except DJ it appears.

It's frustrating when Wonks can't process the most basic of information.

My posts were elucidating to the fact that Kelly's assertion that you should always take a profit shortsighted because simultaneous arbitrage is always shut down.

If one always takes a profit on one platform ie an exchange when there is a single positive fluctuation then obviously in the long term they will be an aggregate loser from a sample size.

My posts were pointing to the short termism of arbitrage and that it's really for people that can't form a fluid opinion.

No where did I promote trading,ever say I had made a euro,discuss a method that I ever used or not used and yet you get the above gibbersih as a reply.

Fantasy again dj876 . Nowhere would I have said you should always take a profit shortsighted ( whatever that means) because simultaneous arbitrage is always shut down . I wouldn't even know what that was about  , it sounds like stock market speak .

What I have  said is that I invariably trade out when I see it is sensible , but it is on my own decision regarding odds . So with the referred to Dublin decision . Purely on basis that there is many a slip between cup and lip , and I am happy with some profit as against major winnings ( major winnings do not apply to a 1/5 shot before there is any comeback on that ) .

I back about 4 horses a year , have stated that many times . The fewer bets you have the more likely you are to win , people who bet in every race are the punters the bookies want , they want addictive gamblers in their shops despite the public stance . Numbers games should not be allowed in bookies shops . Put them in casinos or the like , and make them dress up to attend , we see that daily in the movies where people always win big . I wonder who sponsor the movies .

People world wide like to gamble in various scenarios . But they also need protection , and should not be ripped off odds wise as they are in certain countries . Our bookies make up their own rules , their own odds , they rely on addictive behaviour to make profit .  I dont mind if they give the punter a fighting chance , increasingly though they keep shutting doors and increasing the restrictions beloved of the bean counters .

Thank goodness for the exchanges , at least punters can see exactly whats on offer and for how much .  The bookies must hate the exchanges .

You have often tied yourself up in knots,in fact you use words that really don't add a thing to debates. I'm beggining to think you just might be a school teacher or even a little bit above, your constant need to sound good makes a lot of what you actually say fickle .

Jeez A teacher?

You should know better than anyone that patience is not a quality I possess WR although the kids would probably be better behaved and have something between their ears.

The standard of educators in the country is currently plummeting and parts of the third level system resembles a cheap ponzi scheme which suits the state's manipulation of the data.

Although teaching should be a profession we respect,I feel they really let themselves down at the trade union conferences and many of them have an unjustified sense of entitlement. They're extremely slow to evolve and resistant to all change which ensures that secondary level education remains principally a test of memory and regurgitation (Maths/Physics the only exemptions)

I will have to stay away from these buy low/sell high threads going forwards but out of interest Kelly,what were your four racing bets in the last 12 months? I fully understand if you don't wish to divulge your trade secrets, the discrepancy between the actual price and your informed estimate of the implied probability must be astronomical in these four cases to trigger a move?

Experience warns me that it would be pointless to respond re my last 4 bets ,dj876 . It's like the old chestnut about "when did you stop beating your wife " . If I post 4 winners I will only cop flak from the begrudgers / disbelievers , if I post 4 losers the same begrudgers / disbelievers will come out spitting  bile about being incompetent .

I have already indicated in part on a previous post regarding my last ( stand alone) bet , no doubt any detective minded forumite would be able to sleuth it out .

Any such bet I do is invariably in a level weight race , preferably on a horse with recent winning form , a competent jockey  and against opponents who have flaws , slow boats, bad jumpers , or deficient in stamina , or any permutation from  those conditions . The smaller the field , the bigger the bet , provided the odds are right and you can get on . Horse won easily as it was entitled to , 11/10( not the SP , it was on course  , and the only one wanted ) .

Re teachers etc my brother in law recently retired from University lecturing ( in the said maths / physics scene , same uni as myself ) . He said the standard of undergraduate capability  in maths on entry to uni recently was less than it was 50 years ago plus when we both undertook those said disciplines . They had to give nearly every  first year entry undergraduate a crash course in maths for approx a month to get them up to speed needed for further study . And there would only be 20 of them , my  physics class had 58 ( graduating) way back in the early sixties . So much for progress in a university where the student population overall increased by a factor of 4 in the intervening years . Reason for the relative downturn in recruitment ( a factor of about one twelfth ) : physics/ maths is too difficult compared with other degrees .

I missed out on University myself but am thinking of enrolling as a mature student.

Its all these new courses that are the attraction.

With all this fluffy talk of equality surely a place on the Equalities course beckons for me.
Presumably as we are all equal no need for any entrance qualifications ( I'm in ) and more importantly no exams at the end of the course.

I presume that after emerging from University I would hate my own country like all the other students.

Plus there's no such thing as 'fail' anymore in our glorious PC universe.
In fact I imagine you would all get identical grades in the exams -so nobody's fragile 'self-esteem' would be at risk of lowered.
Equal mediocrity awaits...go for it !

Sadly an unbelievable ending to what coulda shoulda woulda been an interesting thread.

frank60  • May 31, 2015 7:38 PM BST 
Well done to any who had the winner,

A bit early for a thread of it's own...

((((( " THE OPEN " ))))) Championship - ROYAL PORTRUSH 2019.


Congratulations to Royal Portrush (and Northern Ireland) for landing The OPEN Championship in 2019.

While the K Club in Straffan, Kildare will host the 2016 Irish Open, I see it's set for the 5* Lough Erne Resort in Co. Fermanagh to host the 2017 Irish Open.

Jun 1, 2015 -- 6:09PM, Kelly wrote:

Fantasy again dj876 . Nowhere would I have said you should always take a profit shortsighted ( whatever that means) because simultaneous arbitrage is always shut down . I wouldn't even know what that was about  , it sounds like stock market speak . What I have  said is that I invariably trade out when I see it is sensible , but it is on my own decision regarding odds . So with the referred to Dublin decision . Purely on basis that there is many a slip between cup and lip , and I am happy with some profit as against major winnings ( major winnings do not apply to a 1/5 shot before there is any comeback on that ) .I back about 4 horses a year , have stated that many times . The fewer bets you have the more likely you are to win , people who bet in every race are the punters the bookies want , they want addictive gamblers in their shops despite the public stance . Numbers games should not be allowed in bookies shops . Put them in casinos or the like , and make them dress up to attend , we see that daily in the movies where people always win big . I wonder who sponsor the movies .People world wide like to gamble in various scenarios . But they also need protection , and should not be ripped off odds wise as they are in certain countries . Our bookies make up their own rules , their own odds , they rely on addictive behaviour to make profit .  I dont mind if they give the punter a fighting chance , increasingly though they keep shutting doors and increasing the restrictions beloved of the bean counters . Thank goodness for the exchanges , at least punters can see exactly whats on offer and for how much .  The bookies must hate the exchanges .

There you go kelly 4 horse bets a year you said, like i said hard to keep track of all the waffle

I think you are a bit of a no hoper , the wasp .  I have said regularly on here that I find myself having only 3 or 4 bets a year , specifically those are bets where I lay off minimally if at all . They are usually each way bets on condition races , seldom big fields , and invariably with the distinct probability that I will be getting my money back even if horse does not win . Horse has to have good/winning form , distance , ground , jockey etc .

Hard to find races / horses ticking all those boxes , and sometimes even harder to get money on , bookies dont like laying in those races , for good reasons .

The rest of the time I back anywhere I find value , be it horse , golf , cricket , soccer , GAA , etc .  But I invariably trade , sometimes in running , sometimes pre kick off .

Re just being considered an arber , increasingly a lot of my betting is in running .  You cant arb in running  , most times you just have to sit and suffer and hope the pendulum swings your way . Still trucking .