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Catch Me ifyoucan
31 Mar 15 13:18
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Date Joined: 09 Sep 03
| Topic/replies: 18,579 | Blogger: Catch Me ifyoucan's blog
Welcome to Shell's WONDERFUL WORLD OF GOLF for the Shell Houston Open.

The full kit is required, Stetson, frilly jacket, trousers and changed to my 'Heritage' Boots this week, with spurs - and most importantly my belt with holsters and twin Smith & Wesson’s.
Come out all guns blazing !


So let the S H O begin...

This tournament dates back to 1946, when a young guy named Byron Nelson picked up the winners trophy. The host club since 2006 is The Golf Club of Houston (formerly Redstone GC), a long par-72 over 7,440yds, will favour players who hit a lot of GIR and get their putter working for SGP. The four par 5s are all over 550 yards, and two of the four par 3s top 216 yards. Three of the par 4s top 480 yards but the 12th is only 338yds. A winning score of 272 (-16) has been popular so birdie fest players are also the order of the day.

International players also have a good track record here, so don't shy away from a Euro, South African or even another Aussie this year.

Rhino,
In fact when an Aussie wins here, another usually follows the following year...
1972 Bruce Devlin Australia
1973 Bruce Crampton Australia

1999 Stuart Appleby Australia
2000 Robert Allenby Australia

2006 Stuart Appleby(2) Australia
2007 Adam Scott Australia

2014 Matt Jones Australia
2015 Matt Jones(2)

'Turn on, tune in, drop out'...more to follow. Devil

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Replies: 81
By:
padlock
When: 31 Mar 15 13:48
With the masters so close and trying to nick any 'value' haven't looked too deeply into houston, rose. And kaymer looked v big so few £ on them so far... Guess one of the non agusta players however are probably going to win,but which one
By:
huddys
When: 31 Mar 15 14:01
Three against the field this week,hopefully we can find the winner,and increase the bet on Rory for next week if one of the selection come up,
1st selection is kuchar e/w 16/1 with powers paying 6 places,he played an unbelievable round last week to shot level par in the terrible weather,beaten in a playoff last year,so has good course form,
2nd selection is Triangale e/w at 70/1,another player who had a great finish here last,so at the price he a worth a few quid e/w
3rd selection is Brendan Steele,has been playing some solid golf all year,

Selections,
Matt kuchar 16/1 e/w 6 places,max bet,really thing this is one of the golf bets of the year,
Triangale 70/1 e/w 6 places,
Brendan Steele e/w 6 places,
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 31 Mar 15 17:49
http://shellhoustonopen.com/

2014 Shell Houston Open Final Leaderboard
Pos.    Player    Total    R1    R2    R3    R4
1    Matt Jones    -15    68    68    71    66
2    Matt Kuchar    -15    66    67    68    72
3    Sergio Garcia    -13    67    65    73    70
4    Cameron Tringale    -12    68    68    69    71
5    Shawn Stefani    -10    67    69    73    69
6    Rickie Fowler    -9    70    70    68    71
T7    Rory McIlroy    -8    70    71    74    65
T7    Russell Henley    -8    73    69    72    66
T7    Brice Garnett    -8    68    71    72    69
T7    Ryan Palmer    -8    70    68    73    69

btw, 'Heritage' Boots founder Jerry Ryan comes from Dublin.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/larryolmsted/2011/06/21/the-best-handmade-cowboy-boots-you-can-buy-right-now/
http://heritageboot.com/
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 31 Mar 15 17:58
Matt Jones returns to defend his only PGA TOUR title.

Winners and runners-up since 2006...
2006: Stuart Appleby (269 / 19-under) over Bob Estes (275)
2007: Adam Scott (271) over Stuart Appleby and Bubba Watson (274)
2008: Johnson Wagner (272) over Chad Campbell and Geoff Ogilvy (274)
2009: Paul Casey (277) over J.B. Holmes (277) in a playoff
2010: Anthony Kim (276) over Vaughn Taylor in a playoff
2011: Phil Mickelson (268) over Chris Kirk and Scott Verplank (271)
2012: Hunter Mahan (272) over Carl Pettersson (273)
2013: D.A. Points (272) over Billy Horschel and Henrik Stenson (273)
2014: Matt Jones (273) over Matt Kuchar in a playoff

The Golf Club of Houston prides itself on setting up the course as close to Augusta National as possible so as to attract a strong field ahead of the season's first Major, so we can expect the greens to be firm and fast - stimpmeter 13.5’ - practice putting on a snooker table like Woosie did before his Augusta triumph on 14th April 1991 is perfect.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 31 Mar 15 21:47
Call,
Not sure about 'promise of wet conditions' - maybe a few thunder storms and a little rain at night but the forecast I have at this time is for 'very good' golfing weather.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/humble-tx/77338/golf-weather/346124

Early Thursday-Late Friday is also worth considering this week but maybe not to the extent as in Valero.
Lighter winds are forecast for early Thursday morning at this stage and tee times are posted.

http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/shell-houston-open/tee-times.html
By:
newapproach
When: 31 Mar 15 22:09
The calm before the storm this week in Texas, still a winner to be found this week though. Texas natives fared very well last week and I'm happy to have a couple more in my team this week:

Patrick Reed 16/1
Texas native who has already won once this year and in good form overall. Break since Valspar will be an advantage after the war of attrition last week.

Shawn Stefani 50/1
Another Texas native who is playing well atm. Finished 5th here last year suggests his game suits the course and conditions well.

Russell Henley 66/1
Player who often fares well in windy conditions and well able to get his head in front when in the mix. T7 here last year here also.

Cameron Tringale 66/1
Excellent GIR player which is essential at this course. Strong course form including T8, T16 and 4th here last 3 years.

Padraig Harrington 175/1
Another player who won't be fazed by possible windy conditions synonymous with Texas golf. Price is insulting considering his win @ the Honda Classic.

Best of luck.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 01 Apr 15 00:25
There are no alternates for The MASTERS, so the final exemption into the tournament is reserved for the winner of the Shell Houston Open. Worth Winning !

So what to do the week before a major – Well WIN of course, like Tiger Woods (WGC-BI & PGA in 2007), Phil Mickelson (Scottish & The Open in 2013) & Rory McIlroy - the last player to win the week before a major as he won the WGC-BI before winning last year’s PGA Championship at Valhalla.

Only two of the OWGR top 10 playing this week - 1. Rory, 2. Stenson, 3. Bubba, 4. Spieth, 5. Day, 6. Scott, 7. Dustin, 8. Sergio, 9. Furyk, 10. Walker (WD) yet some of the best players in the world will be doing their best to peak just in time for this season's first Major.


Matt Kuchar T8 finishes (in '11 and '10) and was poxed to lose in a play-off last year to Strayla’s own Matt Jones.
Matt could also be an excellent selection for Augusta too – Kuchar that is – just not sure if he is long enough off the tee for here and Augusta.
Huddy's, we will pay to find out this week.


Jordan Spieth has only two starts at this SHO (T50 2013 & MC last year) so he’s a player that you are trying to capitalize on his recent play (WIN and solo second in his last two) rather than horses for courses if having a bet. Spieth said that Houston is a 'bomber’s course' that doesn’t suit his eye so therefore had a wee ew on Daniel 'Bomb' Berger – 1.30pm start - a bomber who can putt and threw in Just in 'Bomber' Thomas as well - 7.30am start - both are fearless.


Keegan Bradley #37 OWGR and #87 on FedEx has two top 10s - T4 in '12, T10 in 20.13 and T43 (66,77,73,72=288) in his last three starts here at the SHO. Bradley can run hot in spurts as seen at Bay Hill in his last start with 68,70,69 but the wheels fell off posting 77 for a T49. He is seen as a ‘course horse’ so with four par fives, no rough, big hitter and a decent short game we should have some hope of a return. Hard to watch him play though and certainly wouldn’t make my wags fourball ! 


Matt Jones has to be in my portfolio with that Aussie stat, at 13/2 BetVic for ‘any other winner’ other than Yank or Euro. We remember last year’s fairy tale as he posted the low round of the Sunday with 66, including that monster putt on the final hole to force a playoff. Then holing out a bunker shot in the playoff to win his first tournament on TOUR - a kick in the nuts for Kuchar (some say Matt deserved it). This season he’s put up ten wkends in a row and his last four have been T7, T14, 3rd and T26 last week at Valero. Like most Aussies, he can really putt and his short game is excellent so I really think he can beat all comers this week.

Matt Kuchar 16 (but only 5 places)
Keegan Bradley 40
Matt Jones 40

A wee weather/bomber ew bet...
Daniel Berger 66
Justin Thomas 80

3 Accums with first three
Lydia Ko 9/2 (will get to the ****'s in 'Poppie's Pond' later)
Forgotten Rules 3
John F Kennedy 9/2 Devil
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 01 Apr 15 00:29
Why is *dy ke  banned word Whoops
By:
applehunter
When: 01 Apr 15 10:11
Where did callit's preview go?
By:
callitasucit
When: 01 Apr 15 10:22
That's the second time that has happened.
By:
Ozymandius
When: 01 Apr 15 10:51
Its bad for the industry when the Forum's Golden Boy (and rightfully so!) is only showing a 3% return on a hugely risky portfolio.

The powers that be need to see a much higher % ....pour encourager les autres.

I suspect if veryone here displayed a % ROI the whole shebang would cave in on itself within 3 months!  Tis an expensive hobby at times but a fun one.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 01 Apr 15 11:07
Strange goings on, and he didn't even mention that banned word !
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 01 Apr 15 11:10
2pts e.w Matt Kuchar 16-1
.9pt e.w Phil Mickleson 33-1
1.1pt e.w Sergio Garcia 28-1
.5pt e.w Hunter Mahan 60-1
.3pt e.w Jonas Blixt 200-1

Total Staked Week 12.....61pts
Total Returned Week 12..63.15pts
Total Staked............456.62pts
Total Returned..........471.72pts
Running Total...........+15.1pts
R.O.I....................+3.31%

Ok, ok......just this one time Devil
By:
Ozymandius
When: 01 Apr 15 11:13
^ weird
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 01 Apr 15 12:17
Tributes Pour In As Tiger Woods Announces "Retirement From Professional Golf" Following Emotional Augusta Visit.

http://www.golfcentraldaily.com/2015/03/tributes-pour-in-as-tiger-woods.html
By:
by purpose
When: 01 Apr 15 12:37
Caught nobody.....
By:
pa lapsy
When: 01 Apr 15 12:38
Not surprised, course he will be missed but he was brutal the last few tournaments.Young all the same to retire and can see him back in a couple of years.
By:
pa lapsy
When: 01 Apr 15 12:40
Whaaaaaaaaaa??????? Hang on there a second. Oh lapsy ya plonker.
By:
tobywong.
When: 01 Apr 15 12:54
Cry pa
By:
pa lapsy
When: 01 Apr 15 13:03
Stop, it was believable Laugh, i've to dash,Mrs lapsy just asked me to pick some spaghetti off the tree out the back.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 01 Apr 15 14:11
Tiger Woods Announces "Retirement From Professional Golf

STILL IN SHOCK
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 01 Apr 15 14:49
Others to maybe consider.....(OR for future reference)

Lee Westwood, based on the horse-for-course theory, makes the most sense this week as he's enjoyed top-30 finishes here in each of the past six years returning T11, T8, T30, T21, T10 with T17 last year 70, 72, 71, 69 for 282. Lee carded a 2-under-par 35-35=70 in the third round of the WGC-Cadillac Championship to reach the 54-hole mark one off the clubhouse lead at 3-under 213. Westwood bagged six birdies and four bogeys on his lap around Trump’s Blue Monster. He has the reputation of a great ball-striker and poor putter, but it is worth noting that four of his birdies fell from longer than 10 feet, with three of those dropping from longer than 21 feet. The Englishman enters the week 74th in the FedEx Cup standings and 29th OWGR.

Jason Kokrak is after another excellent Valspar-API double this year. Kokrak was right in the mix until late Sunday at Valero before posting a solid T11. He’s in the best form of his career and was T2 after 36 holes in 2013 before finishing solo ninth. His best finishes recently have been on courses where he’s carried previous successes. He’ll have no problem with the length or making birdies.

Sergio Garcia - The Spaniard tied for 77th here in his only trip back in 2009 and was 12-under last year entering the weekend but 73-70 cooled him of to finish solo third.


Patrick Reed (C) in my statistical breakdown after T7-T23-P2 at PGA National, Doral and Innisbrook in his last three, form is the least of my concerns with Reed. Another 'bomber' who can really roll it as he’s 11th in SGP and 13th in strokes gained tee-to-green. Patrick checks in at No. 13 in scoring average and also 22nd in par-breakers is hardly a surprise.


Hunter Mahan is stuck in ‘nappy land’ as he’s scored nothing better than T20 since his son was born in early Feb. Since winning here in 2012 he’s followed that with MC in 2013 and T31 last year. Time to put the foot down with sweet Kandi the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader and sayitlikeitis ‘leave her do the night feeds’. Will take some time for the haze to clear me tinks.

Shawn Stefani played seven of eight weekends in 2015 including the last three. His last 12 rounds have seen him card 11 at 72 or better. The only exception was 79 to open last week at Valero. The Texan rallied with local support to play the final three rounds 70-72-70 to finish T26. T17 at Valspar, T21 at Bay Hill before that and finished solo fifth here last year. Shawn has put nine of 12 career rounds in Houston UNDER par so Apple thinks he might be underrated here this week. Agreed.

Brendan Steele, just like Summerhays, the Valero Texas Open is the TOUR stop where Steele has cashed for the most cash in his career. He ground out T8 with a birdie on the final hole last week that put him into the top 10. He’s now made 15 cuts in a row and 11 in a row this season. This is his third top 10 in five starts (WIN in 2011; T4 in 2012) at Valero. Steele has already cashed over $900k after making just $1.3 million last season so mark him down for next year again while I’ll wait for TPC River Highlands to back him again

Cameron Percy has been added to the field as the Aussie was the second alternate so was the second beneficiary of a tee time following a pair of withdrawals. He closed out the Valero Texas Open on Sunday with a 3-under 69 to place T15, two strokes outside the top 10, which would have automatically granted an exemption into this week's tournament. It was his first top 25 on the PGA TOUR in over two years. Now 156th in the FedEx Cup standings, he'll be gunning to make it 3-for-3 in Houston. After a T35 in his debut in 2010, Percy shared 70th place in 2013. An outsider on my Aussie stat, along with A Baddeley who does have a possible early start advantage.

Charley Hoffman - Performed well last week (T11) with expectations set high. He's 7/7 at the SHO with four top 25s and a top 10. ???
Bill Haas T10 at the SHO 2013 ?



FOREIGNers...in the 'Winning Nationality' bet 13/2, now 6's.

Louis Oosthuizen recent play at the SHO has been very good with a T3 in '12 and T10 ’13 but just MC by one shot last year along with Allenby, Baddeley, Spieth & Stadler - all at +1.

Graham DeLaet, The Canuck has a T3 here and enters off a T8 at the Valspar. Ranked high ‘in my statistical breakdown’ so he passes the form/course history/stats test with flying colours but still not exciting me enough to part with Euros.

Jonas Blixt #77 OWGR A product of Florida State University has only made four of his nine cuts on the 2014-15 PGA TOUR campaign. The Swede had a nice run in the Fall Series, posting a pair of top-15 finishes, but has MC 4 of his six in 2015. The best result was a T31 in his last start at The Honda. Looking back at his course history, he as a T38 in 2013 and a missed cut last year.

Martin Kaymer never played well here and nothing inside of T31 in three events in 2015 so leave him out until THE PLAYERS.

Charl Schwartzel might be an interesting angle this week but, like Kuchar, could be an excellent plan B at Augusta or really at just about any Major. He’s a premium player and went T3-T30-MC in his last three trips here beginning in 2010 and skipped 2013.
By:
workrider
When: 01 Apr 15 17:53
Thanks for a brilliant write up Catch , with your help have plumped for REED & De Laet....
By:
applehunter
When: 02 Apr 15 09:34
Garcia
Kuchar
Fowler
Chappell
Schwatzel
By:
applehunter
When: 02 Apr 15 09:52
Variances in weather between morning and afternoon starters minimal.

Morning starters will face breeze of 13 mph with afternoon starters facing breeze average of c.16 mph.

Should be no excuses.
By:
frank60
When: 02 Apr 15 11:32
Backed  POD at 230s and 240s a few days ago;[did me a big turn a few weeks,  back] and maybe value for money Ken Duke 940/1..i will back a few more on day 3,   goodluck
By:
frank60
When: 02 Apr 15 11:36
PS the Irish Times fantasy golf start with the Masters next week,[ 15k in prizes if anyone interested]
By:
callitasucit
When: 02 Apr 15 11:50
Hopefully so Apple, last weeks weather made a bit of a nonsense out of it.

Brian Davis looks worth investing in in a couple of markets.

He is 12-1 for Top Englishman, and that is certainly value. Justin Rose is out of form, and probably only playing here as he is desperately seeking some. Danny Willet has never teed it up here, and Paul Casey has missed the last 3 cuts in this  event. Lee Westwood will see next week as one of his beter chances of landing that elusive major, and all roads lead to there for him.

This is Brian Davis' Masters, and given his track record(he would have obliged for backers in this market the last two years), and that he has shown enough in recent weeks to suggest he will challenge again, he looks a cracking bet.

The Sportsbook decided to offer 1/5 odds and 4 places on a market with only 6 runners. Unfortunately I couldn't get enough on, nor fund a different account quick enough before they pulled the e.w option. But quite a rick.

Davis is also worth investing in for his 3 ball today. The 19-10 with Sportsbook, or 7-4 generally is well worth taking. As said he generally shines around this venue, and when last seen on a track suits only a couple of weeks ago, he produced a top 10 finish. His opponents today are an out form JJ Henry and track debutant Joost Luiten. Neither should worry Davis if he produces his average round around here.

From a first round leader point of view, both Cameron Tringale and Phil Mickleson look two likely lads.

Tringale, like Davis, has some excellent form around here. He finished the 1st round of 2013 in second place, and was just 3 off the lead of last years best opening 18. Out early today, he is likely to give backers a run for their money at least. At a tasty price.

I get the feeling Phil might just come charging out of the gates today. He started well last week, and will have been disgusted with his subsequent effort. Like a wounded bull, he may just take revenge on the golf course today, and again with an early tee time, he will hopefully be involved.

.8pt e.w & 1pt win Brian Davis Top English 10- & 12-1
3pts Brian Davis 3 ball 19-10
.7pt e.w Phil Mickleson 35-1 FRL
.4pt e.w Cameron Tringale 66-1 FRL
By:
padlock
When: 02 Apr 15 13:17
tried tringale  , petterson and jacobsen in 1st rd leader and to win o/r
By:
padlock
When: 02 Apr 15 13:34
Added b haas and ishikawa
By:
frank60
When: 02 Apr 15 15:45
Phil Mick -4 After 6holes  leads,
By:
callitasucit
When: 02 Apr 15 16:03
Nice start from Phil alright.

I'm not so keen on the fast starts from Casey and Rose!!
By:
frank60
When: 02 Apr 15 17:55
PITCH AND PUTT SCORES, I HATE THAT
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 02 Apr 15 18:22
ON TV TONITE

    18:10        Shawn Stefani (5/4)        Francesco Molinari (7/4)        Andres Romero (10/3)   
    18:10        Jamie Donaldson (4/5)        David Hearn (11/8)        Scott Verplank (8)   
    18:20        Carlos Ortiz (11/8)        Brendon De Jonge (6/4)        Tim Wilkinson (7/2)   
    18:20        Robert Garrigus (6/4)        Zac Blair (7/4)        Jhonattan Vegas (5/2)   
    18:30        Joost Luiten (13/8)        Brian Davis (19/10)        J J Henry (5/2)   
    18:30        Lee Westwood (5/4)        Hudson Swafford (9/4)        Kevin Kisner (10/3)   
    18:40        Matt Kuchar (13/8)        Sergio Garcia (2)        Rickie Fowler (21/10)   
    18:40        Ryan Moore (5/4)        Russell Henley (17/10)        Derek Ernst (9/2)   
    18:50        Martin Kaymer (11/8)        Padraig Harrington (15/8)        Greg Owen (11/4)   
    18:50        Kevin Streelman (13/8)        John Merrick (21/10)        Scott Brown (9/4)   
    19:00        Bill Haas (13/8)        Matt Jones (13/8)        K J Choi (3)   
    19:00        J B Holmes (11/8)        Keegan Bradley (6/4)        Justin Leonard (11/2)   
    19:10        Jerry Kelly (28/17)        Alex Cejka (19/10)        Steven Bowditch (5/2)   
    19:10        Nick Watney (11/8)        Angel Cabrera (28/15)        Ken Duke (3)   
    19:20        Kevin Chappell (6/4)        Bryce Molder (2)        Nicholas Thompson (3)   
    19:20        Chad Campbell (6/4)        Billy Hurley (13/8)        Robert Allenby (3)   
    19:30        Daniel Berger (6/5)        Erik Compton (21/10)        Andrew Svoboda (11/4)   
    19:30        Jason Kokrak (20/19)        Chris Stroud (13/5)        Colt Knost (7/2)   
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 02 Apr 15 18:28
.7pt e.w Phil Mickleson 35-1 FRL

Call, birdie the last two (par 5, par 3) to share the lead. BOL.
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 02 Apr 15 18:37
6 HOUR time difference this week (later pub hours ?)
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 02 Apr 15 18:40
•Shot 1 316 yds to left fairway, 247 yds to hole
•Shot 2 226 yds to left green side bunker, 90 ft to hole
•Shot 3 96 ft to unmapped, 8 ft to hole
•Shot 4 in the hole

PAR 3..."IN THE HOOOOOOOOOLE" shouts Callit Excited
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 02 Apr 15 18:48
•Shot 1 210 yds to left green side bunker, 33 ft to hole
•Shot 2 45 ft to unmapped, 12 ft to hole Bollix
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 02 Apr 15 18:50
•Shot 3 putt 14 ft 3 in., 2 ft 0 in. to hole
•Shot 4 in the 'ASS' hole ffs.
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