.....Ruby to ride a treble on first day at Cheltenham ...What Price ...?

Mugs bet...regardless of price...though it is rather laughable/insulting!!

Of course it has to be a joke , shameful as well ...

two even money shots is 3/1, disgraceful offer

Sad thing is Kavvie , somebody will take them up on it ...

Terrible offer of course. But he does have 4 very short ones. Any 3 of the 4 win and the bet is up. What price would the lot of YOU go???

Mathematically it is actually very close to the true price based on current prices. It might even be a very small bit of value.

Two even money shots is 3-1, but Ruby will have 4 of them on the Tuesday. And prob one other 10-1 shot in the handicap. Skybet might be the only firm betting on it, but in a vibrant market, I wouldn't expect a whole lot more tbh.

Goretski, How is it a mugs bet...'regardless of price'??

That would be a mug statement no? No offence intended, but surely if was a price that you considered over the odds, then its a bet? To consider price irrelevant would be worrying. When weighing up any bet, in any sport.

Seriously what has two even money shots being 3/1 have to do with it?

Nothing.

Sorry..I see it mentioned twice and got confused.It is of no relevance.

I mentioned it only in relation to what Kavvie said. I assume he is suggesting two even money shots are 3-1, therefore the treble or 3 winners, should be a bigger price. That would be true if Ruby only had 3 mounts. He doesn't.

If you average out his 4 shortest at 1/1 each then the chances of him having   the following numbers of winners from those are..

0 =15/1
1 = 3/1
2 = 5/3
3 = 3/1
4 =15/1

For this bet you get paid on 3 and I presume 4 winners out of the above which works out at about 85/40.Factor in the other two races and 2/1 is actually nearly value...assuming of course that the original prices that you are working off are fair...which is the conundrum!!!

Faugheen or Un des Sceaux not to run would be important also.

Absolutely..Any non runner totally messes it up.I am basing my calculations on current price only and not factoring anything else in.

Rubys likely rides on the tuesday...  U.D.S   1.72,  FAGHEEN 11/8, ANNIE POWER EVENS, AND DOUVAN 9/4  ..plus a h/cap ride    = dont go near the bet

Make that faugheen

What odds do you make it frank?

I suppose its possible he could have a ride in both handicap chases.

somewhere around 10/3 but theres better odds compilers on the forum then me; Tolmi

You could well be correct.The point I was making is that it is nowhere near being as poor a price it was being made out to be.

Ruby top jockey 1/2

Dont back in the top jockey market until you are certain your fancy is fit and well

Callit....none taken... I know my comment comes across a bit flippant but I just see these as gimmicky bets, although I do take your point that at some point if the odds offered are considered to be in your favour and considered value then quite possibly it does become a bet but these kind of bets just aint for me.

So much to take in account when considering a bet of this nature at 2/1. Walsh has been top jockey on 8 occasions, winning it with 3 winners on 5 of those and now we're asking for 3 in one afternoon. Like I say Im sure it will rock someone's boat.....just not mine!

sorry lads i thought it was 3 named winners   i misread..

An absolute mugs bet in my opinion - nearly 4 weeks to the festival Ruby needs to avoid injury and suspension and the horses need to get there safely.A heavy ground first day would completely change the complexion of the bet.
If all the horses and Ruby get there safely what is the shortest price Ruby will be to ride a treble on the day in the most competitive betting event of the year.

Well said Eddie.

An absolute mugs price.
Faugheen will drift n the day,Ruby hasn't even committed himself to riding it.
Annie Power is coming back off an injury and isint guaranteed to run in the mares race.

The point about injury or suspension is another huge factor.

Irrespective of the outcome of the bet the comments on here give an interesting insight into the mindset of punters.
Has anyone actually checked what the position is if Ruby does not ride on the first day at all?
How many of those who dismiss the bet so authoratively actually understand how to work out the approximate true odds of the bet?
Anyone factor in the other rides he may have on the day?

I have seen people who dismiss this bet out of hand tip horses on this forum which were infinitely worse value than this bet.One man tipped a horse each way at 8/1 and 1/5 the odds when it was 21 to back on the win market and 5.1 in the place yet he talks about this being a bad price!!!

Would I back it...No..but every bet has a price and this price is a lot closer to the true odds than people realise.

To simplify and rounding up prices, UDS 4/6,Faugheen 6/4,Annie Power Evs and Douvan 2/1.
Lowest treble would be near 7/1 and a median of the other 3 trebles with Douvan included would be near 11/1,factor in the likely long odds of possible rides in the two handicaps would make me agree with Tolmi that it is near mathematically.If going down the perm route(of the main 4 again for simplicity,if he did get all 4 instead of 3 is where you would collect).
Agree more though with the negative reasons above and a poor bet now.

yea pa but as people say if one of uds annie or faugheen is a nr the bet is rank bad value..

According to Wildmanfromborneo Pa lapsy is the best odds compiler for horse racing on here so he should be able to give us the true odds, unless wildman is being a little naughty with that assertion !!!!!

Very easy Rocketfingers and i'm sure it concurred with your own calculations.

X squared + 3X-4=(X+4)(X-1)= 0

There you go,X=-4 and X=1

No price Pa? has the horse racing odds compiler fails again ladies and gentlemen i believe so.

Oh Pa you know me i ain't very smart to work that out my friend, just tell us your true 100% price?

Pa is seething! Lol!

Even for you i,m surprised you didn't recognise that the 12.51 post was pure gibberish.
On the prices above it would be 5/2 but an allowance would have to be made for the 2 handicap races and the firm in questions prices are also probably shorter making it more like 9/4,as said by various above a poor bet but mathematically not far off,hope this helps you RF.

dont be confusing snap the dreamer pa

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So after all that Pa copies someone else and admits formula is a lie. Nothing better than catching Pa out, yes lads he is seething.

Whatever you say Thicko.

poor snap .block on block off

Thicko 1 Self proclaimed greatest odds compiler on the forum 0

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a bit quicker with ur reply snap,that took a few seconds

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As catch me says folks, this is the way to go imvho!!!

Just remember X= -4 Rocket, i can't believe you fell for that bollix

keep dancing snap the fantasist

Hey Pa i told you i ain't as clever as you my friend although my friend i do always seem to be able to get the better of you which has to hurt

It is possible that wonky didn't read the small print. I would say it is likely the bet in question relates to the 4 graded races on Tuesday. We know what he's riding and the general prices. We have no idea what he'll ride in the h'caps, or whether they are 4-1 fav or 25-1. Let's face it a "bookie" is not going to give you 2 extra bites at a cherry are they? If they went 5-2, 11-4, they would be filled in. If Douvan wins, they are up against it. If he loses the punters are in deep **it.