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Catch Me ifyoucan
27 Jan 15 12:35
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 Sep 03
| Topic/replies: 18,579 | Blogger: Catch Me ifyoucan's blog
$ in the account after Hass last week so a few bigger priced players.......all playing well atm

Emiliano Grillo @ 41.00
Byeong-Hun An @ 67.00
with
Brendan Steele @ 41.00
Justin Thomas @ 41.00
Shawn Stefani @ 81.00

+ Lee Westwood @ 21.00 and Jordan Spieth @ 17.00

ew dbls.

Last week there was money to be made on the last nine holes maybe due the birdie/eagle fest finish.
Pause Switch to Standard View ((((( GOLF ))))) DUBAI Desert Classic...
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Report huddys January 27, 2015 7:00 PM GMT
Il start of at the Dubai classic,
I was hoping to get the 4/1 on Rory but missed the price wasn't going to back him at 7/2 or lower,seen boyle's are betting w/o Rory so ive picked two against the field,
1st Selection,Stenson betting w/o rory 10/1 e/w.had a great back nine last week,loves it here at Dubai,
2nd selection,Kaymer,betting w/o Rory 12/1 e/w,cant see him crack ever again like he did last time out,strange as it might sound but the melt down he had two weeks ago might make him a stronger player,
Now onto America,
1st selection is Bubba Watson,has played well here last year were he finished second,its a big hitters track so the layout will suit him this week,15/1 e/w,
2nd selection is Rickie Fowler e/w 20/1,going to give him another chance,needs to start converting his winning chances,hopefully it could be this week,

Selections,
Stenson w/o Rory 10/1 e/w max bet,
Kaymer w/o Rory 12/1 e/w,

America,
Bubba Watson e/w 15/1,
Rickie Fowler e/w 20/1

Also done permed e/w doubles on the selections,best of luck this week lads,
Report newapproach January 27, 2015 9:42 PM GMT
Great action stateside to kick off the west coast swing.

Bubba Watson 16/1
Bubba is one to follow @ his favourite courses and this place would be right up there. Good record here including 2nd last year when he left it behind him.

Phil Mickelson 22/1
Another man who loves comeing back to his favourite courses and Phil is a 3 time winner here. Decent warm up last week will have him spot on for this week.

Hunter Mahan 40/1
Top desert player as evidenced by win here in 2010 and WGC matchplay in 2012. Won for first time in 2 a while @ the barclays last year and wont wait as long this time hopefully.

Harris English 40/1
Poor putting led to poor year last year but has put that behind him so far in 2015 with strong effort in sony open. Has the ball striking skills to go well here also.

Kevin Na 100/1
Doesn't win that often but played very well last year and has saved best form for west coast swing. Has a number of top 10 finishes in this tournament which means his price is definitely too big.

Good luck everyone.
Report huddys January 27, 2015 10:40 PM GMT
Done a Trixie in Dubai,

Westwood top English player 10/3
Olsean top Danish player 7/4
Warren top Scotish player 7/2
Report callitasucit January 27, 2015 10:55 PM GMT
Think we should get a Pod Express rolling!! 370 on here, for a player who won last time out(admittedly sh1te field), who is a 3 time major winner(admittedly a while ago now), who says he has his game in cracking form(admittedly he is stone mad, so cant take what he says at face value), and has shown a liking for this venue(admittedly there have been course changes!). But there are players in here who cant win, Pod can, and he just might. 370? Worth a few quid of anyones money.
Report frank60 January 27, 2015 11:24 PM GMT
390/1 NOW, For old times sake i have a fiver on.Tongue Out
Report applehunter January 28, 2015 1:07 PM GMT
2 Quality events this week.

Dubai

Not a lot between Top 3 in betting and all have had pipe openers. Kaymer at the prices is the pick.

Money is with Ooosthuizen at 28s EW 1,2,3,4,5,6 at PP. Price is short enough I thought but he appears to be over his back injury and should start moving up the world rankings after a 18 month interrupted schedule. A bit speculative considering he hasn’t played in 2015 but he is one I will be following this year.

Phoenix

Very competitive field. I’m a latecomer to the Ryan Palmer fanclub but I am now a believer. In great form and from the top end of the field he looks overpriced @38s here to get involved.

Small saver on Tiger @ 26s.
Report callitasucit January 28, 2015 2:17 PM GMT
Two fascinating events this week, featuring the best player in the world, the return of the best youngster in the world, and the return of the best player to ever play the game.

Firstly to Dubai, I rarely back Rory these days, as I don't think he ever offers much value, but I just cant see him beaten this week. I made him 5-2, and with quotes of 4-1 being readily available Sunday evening, I was hoping someone might go 9-2 on Monday. Unfortunately his price understandably went the other way. I toyed with the idea of leaving him alone, but truth is he is still above the price I make him, and I don't see the point of backing 4 or 5 others when I don't really think they are going to win.

He hasn't been out of the top 2 in his last 6 European Tour events, he has led this tournament after round one in 4 of the last 5 years, he is a better player now than in any of those years, and now crucially he is developing into a far better closer of tournaments. It has been his final rounds here which have prevented him from being a multiple champion, but he can start to rectify that this week. His long game was in supreme shape two weeks ago, and considering his putting woes its testament to his class that he finished only a shot out of the playoff. He has been working on those little problems ever since, and can now be expected to show the golfing world just what they are up against this year.
10-3 and 7-2 may seem short, but I don't think so. Boyles have a cracking offer when there is a short priced jolly, and you fancy it. Money back if second or third including ties, is nearly the same as giving a free bet on Rory...IMO. Yes, its only to €50, but there are plenty of Boyles shops, and whether someone just wants €50 on, or much more, there is more than one way to skin a cat.

If there is to be a challenger to McIlroy, it will surely come in the shape of Martin Kaymer. He was awesome for 60 holes two weeks ago, but then something happened which I never though I would see. And never expect to see again. Kaymer is a born winner, and he will be very keen to put that particular episode to bed with a prominent showing this week. I prefer the 12-1 without, rather than the 16-1 to win. 

Henrik Stenson put a gloss on a poor week last Sunday, but still looks a way off his best, so I think he is a bit short this week. Lee Westwood looks sure to be thereabouts, but again he is a shade short IMO.

Ernie Els could be one of the bigger priced runners to get into the frame, and quotes of 55-1 w/o Rory look perfectly acceptable. A standing dish here on Sundays when in his heyday, Ernie comes here on the back of 3 decent performances. His short putting will probably infuriate, but I think he is sure to contend, and is worthy of support.

For me, the bet of the week is Eduardo Molinari to be Top Italian. 10-11 seems far too big. (Evens in sportinbet, or Spreadex if anyone can get on there) Matteo Mannassero seems to have forgotten how to play the game, not finishing in the top 50 anywhere since last years British Open. Renato Paratore offers plenty of potential for the future, but on his debut here he will be happy just to be around for the weekend. Ed Mol will expect much more form that from himself at a venue he  has been in top 10 at twice in the last 5 years.

Top South African will be a much tougher title to land, and although I wouldn't have many negatives for the opposition, I feel 13-2 On Ernie Els is worth a tickle.

8pts Rory McIlroy 10-3 Boyles
2pts e.w Martin Kaymer 12-1 w/o Rory
.5pt e.w Ernie Els 55-1 w/o Rory

8pts Eduardo Molinari 10-11 Top Italian
2pts Ernie Els Top South African 13-2

Tiger and Jordan Spieth return in the Phoenix Open, and the return of the former will guarantee huge interest in this. I hate to leave the great man go at prices like 25-1, but surely a watching brief is the way to go this week. If he finishes top 20, an shows vast improvement in his short game, then quotes of 10-1 or bigger will be very tempting when he returns to Torrey Pines.

My love for Tiger, is matched by my dislike for Bubba Watson. But its him I go to for the most likely winner this week. As NA says, Bubba is a real horses for courses performer, and will typically go well where he has gone well before. Yes there has been some reconstructive surgery done since last year, but nothing too major. It will play tougher, that should help the better players more than not. It promises to be a dry week, apart from the potential odd shower, so length will be key. Bubba should have won here last year, and if he putts even averagely this week, he can rectify that.

Ryan Palmer threw away a winning opportunity with a triple bogey on his front 9 last Sunday. One cant say he would have won without it, because he has a habit of finding ways to lose, but he certainly would have gone close, and would be a lot shorter this week. He may have less self imposed pressure on himself this week, and he could just find that elusive victory. He was bombing his drives last week, and the amount of tee shots on par 3s that he put absolutely stiff, bodes very well for this week.

Another member of last weeks squad to survive is Billy Horschel. He slowly found his feet last week, and could be now ready to contend. Second here on debut two years ago, not only is he a better player now, he is a winner. If he can avoid a slow start, he will go close.

One player who will certainly hope that the changes have not been wholesale is Scott Piercy. 6 outings here have seen 5 top 20s, and given his current well being he looks sure to contend. He performed better than ever last week  at a venue he had previously consistently flopped at, and 50-1 looked very big.

Hunter Mahan gets in instead od Hideki Matsuyama on value grounds.  The Japananese star is just a shade short, whilst Mahan who seems  to have a pretty similar chance is quite a bit bigger in the market. A former winner here, and 4th last year, his tee to green accuracy will probably be of more benefit this year, and off the back of a good 2015 debut, he will fancy his chances again.

I couldn't let Padraig Harrington go at such a massive price.

2pts e.w Bubba Watson 16-1
.9pt e.w Ryan Palmer 33-1
.6pt e.w Billy Horschel 50-1
.75pt e.w Hunter Mahan 40-1
.6pt e.w Scott Piercy 50-1
.3pt win Pod 400, .3pt place 60

Total Staked Week 3: 38.2pts
Total Returns Week 3: 17.2pts
Total Staked: 130.5pts
Total Returns: 105.4pts
Running Total........ -25.1pts
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 28, 2015 8:01 PM GMT
Not sure POD will be able to cope with 'The Loudest Hole in Golf'.
Report easygold January 29, 2015 1:26 AM GMT
That loudest hole in golf won`t be as loud this year.......... PGA have intervened I`m afraid.
Report huddys January 29, 2015 9:12 AM GMT
Backed bello 35/1 w/o rory aswell,
Report applehunter January 29, 2015 9:41 AM GMT
Oostuizen WD with back injury.

Shame.
Report callitasucit January 29, 2015 10:22 AM GMT
Has to be a massive worry for Oosty, its going on too long. Suggests it may never be right again.

Pity Rory bogey the last, was going along swimmingly. Kaymers putting looked a bit twitchy. Great leaderboard. Should be excellent weekends entertainment.
Report padlock January 29, 2015 1:43 PM GMT
Usa
Moore
Villegas
Thomas
Stallings
All ew
Report applehunter January 29, 2015 2:33 PM GMT
Got my stake back on Oosthuizen so reinvesting in Phoenix.

Harris English @ 48
Brooks Koepka @75
Gary Woodland @34

€10 Mickelson on Sportsbook + €5 in play @22/1

Should be a good watch.
Report frank60 January 29, 2015 3:04 PM GMT
THE  Phoenix ..na100/1,pod 390/1,mahan 40/1, palmer 36/1...just one bet in Dubai ;150/1 and 190/1Mikko Ilonen.  goodluck
Report applehunter January 29, 2015 9:34 PM GMT
Ugghhh

Meant to throw a few sheckels on de Jonge @ 190s.
Report callitasucit January 30, 2015 12:10 AM GMT
Two beautiful shots from Tiger on his back 9, it looks the new swing moulding will be a slow process, but the glimpses of brilliance were great to see.

Bubba hit some tee shot on 17!! Nearly hole in one, then only a 'poor' birdie after  missing the eagle putt. Missed another 6ft on 18, though on the hole his ptting was good. Interesting to see how Palmer gets on, having hit the front very early.

Both him and especially Bubba are driving it so well, and so far, they are going to have a bountiful of looks at birdie this week. For Palmer its a matter of eliminating the very silly errors. Bogeyed a few easy holes, and par 5s last week.

Good to see Sky showing a bit of initiative with their televised times from Dubai. Most of the top players out late tomorrow, and that is when the coverage is. Proper order.
Report frank60 January 30, 2015 12:36 AM GMT
i have my fingers cross for Palmer down to 7.4 , your going well with Bubba as well Callit 5.5,
Report callitasucit January 30, 2015 12:40 AM GMT
Ya, I would happily settle for Palmer winning from Bubba Frank!! They don't pay out on Friday mornings though
Report frank60 January 30, 2015 12:42 AM GMT
WHATCry NOW U TELL ME
Report callitasucit January 30, 2015 12:44 AM GMT
They might pay out on Rory though!!
Report applehunter January 30, 2015 8:28 AM GMT
Early days...
Report workrider January 30, 2015 11:47 AM GMT
Tiger is a shadow of his former self imo ..Makes me think that the medicine hes been using over the years , it having been removed , now shows him up for what he really is ,a very good player who maybe needed a little extra help if you know what i mean ..His confidence around the greens is shattered , nerves he never showed before are be coming apperent ..Maybe I'm wrong but I'd now have to question how big a part the pain killers played over the years ..That intense focus he had , always reminded me of those snooker players years ago , a couple of Canadians I think , who were later found to have been on cocaine ..Not saying for a moment he was ...Just gets me thinking ..
Report applehunter January 30, 2015 1:03 PM GMT
eh cocaine.....eh...no.

betablockers might help but I think its just a case of rust 1st time out.
Report Ozymandius January 30, 2015 1:10 PM GMT
Cocaine Laugh

Bill Werbeniuk and Neal Foulds buzzing around the green baize on sneachta.
Report Distant View January 30, 2015 1:23 PM GMT
Bill was on the betas alright, but Kirk Stevens was certainly on the white stuff.

He used to come out with it all over his waist coat!
Report frank60 January 30, 2015 3:18 PM GMT
Tiger was allways going to have back problems in his mid to late 30s, just have a look at him driveing off the tee in his hay days, Rory could go the same way, the strain on the lower back muscles must be unreal over time, other indoor pursuits haven,t helped Tiger back either.Happy
Report workrider January 30, 2015 3:26 PM GMT
Laugh..Frank , Once again Ozy confirms his age , ffs even I'd forgot those two.....Laugh
Report frank60 January 30, 2015 3:41 PM GMT
Good old Bill W, Pass away about 10years ago,   a memorable incident occurred during a televised Match against David Taylor in the World Team Tournament. Werbeniuk attempted to stretch across the table, but due to his size was having some difficulty. Eventually, the inevitable happened and he split his trousers. The ripping noise it made caused many in the audience, including his opponent, to laugh out loud. Werbeniuk took it in good humour, asking the audience "who did that?" as if insinuating that the noise was attributed to flatulence.
Report workrider January 30, 2015 3:44 PM GMT
Frank he got a ruling allowing him to have 7 pints before every game to calm his nerves he said ..Huge guy and most likable ..
Report frank60 January 30, 2015 3:53 PM GMT
A very likeable lad was bill, his father lead a very colorful life, a armed robber who was also a  Canadian professional champion ,
Report frank60 January 30, 2015 3:54 PM GMT
SRY lads better get the golf thread back on track.
Report Ozymandius January 30, 2015 4:11 PM GMT
Neal Foulds didn't even turn pro till 1983, round about the same time Big Bill peaked with a world ranking of 8.

I suppose if you had a brain the size of a walnut, you could describe them as snooker player of the 70's.

And then run to the United thread like a child gleefully proclaiming that you had, once again, caught the great Ozy out!   I mean, puh-lease!
Report workrider January 30, 2015 4:23 PM GMT
He might have peaked to N0 8 in 83 but he was playing LONG before that Mate , oh by the way how come you Know so much about the 60s and 70s ...Ozy the OLD Fart ...APOL LADS will back off this thread now...
Report Ozymandius January 30, 2015 4:27 PM GMT
I know plenty about a lot of things, doesn't mean I lived through them you plank! 

Also known as having an intellect and a natural curiousity.
Report Distant View January 30, 2015 4:51 PM GMT
Foulds only turned pro in 83 and was very young when he made any sort of mark in snooker.

He lost to Davis in the UK Champ in the mid 80s or so but I think he petered out relatively quickly in terms of being a contender for the top events.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 30, 2015 7:31 PM GMT
Sergio 2-over-par 75-71=146.....missed the cut by four strokes !
Report frank60 January 30, 2015 9:46 PM GMT
78 FOR podSad
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 30, 2015 9:47 PM GMT
Brendan Steele improving to 4-under.
A wet and cold day at TPC Scottsdale, so his 4-under tied the low round of the morning wave.
Steele has cracked the top 10 on his last three trips to this event.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 30, 2015 9:49 PM GMT
Justin Thomas is one off the clubhouse lead of Daniel Berger at 7-under.
As it currently stands, the top two players at TPC Scottsdale are both 21 years old.
Thomas has been close to the lead at some point in each of his last two tournaments, so that he is in contention is not a surprise.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 30, 2015 11:13 PM GMT
Thomas - "very grateful to receive a sponsors exemption, should be a blast."
He's on quite a run, finishing inside the top seven of his last four starts and carding a 61 and 63 on the last two Fridays, respectively, playing in his rookie season.
The youngster is out of the University of Alabama, oozing with talent after finishing fifth on the 2014 Web.com Tour money list (ranked first in birdie average), has three tops 10 in his last four starts.

Kinda 'changing of the guard' time as "we all have days like this" - Tiger Woods after he records the worst round of his professional career.
Report callitasucit January 31, 2015 12:31 AM GMT
The way Rory is driving, and playing in general, with average luck in running he looks sure to get to about the 24 under mark. At least. Can Warren shoot consecutive 66s to topple him? Its a big ask for him, or anyone IMO, and Rory looks a very big price at the moment.

Strange days play in States. Palmer started off very well on the tougher 9, but finished very poorly. 11 under would have seemed very much attainable at an early stage of his round. Early jitters?? 7s on par 5s don't do anyone any good. Its a recurring problem for him though. Errors are compounded rather than controlled.

Laird making hay at the momentSad
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 31, 2015 12:31 AM GMT
NEW LEADER

Martin Laird: Three of his first five events in the new season have been T18 or better.
He picked up T15 last week at Humana and excels on courses where ball-striking matters (Valero, Quail,).
Report applehunter January 31, 2015 4:51 PM GMT
Shot tracker makes interesting viewing this week.
Report callitasucit January 31, 2015 5:04 PM GMT
Interesting is one word for it!! Forecast must be pretty bad, they getting em all out pretty early.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 31, 2015 5:17 PM GMT
LIVE NOW...

    17:20        Jordan Spieth (5/4)        Brendan Steele (2)        Brendon De Jonge (11/4)   
    17:30        Graham Delaet (13/8)        KJ Choi (9/4)        Geoff Ogilvy (12/5)   
    17:40        Zach Johnson (6/4)        Robert Streb (15/8)        Angel Cabrera (27/10)   
    17:50        Bubba Watson (7/5)        Ryan Palmer (2)        Ryan Moore (9/4)   
    18:00        Justin Thomas (11/8)        Martin Laird (17/11)        Daniel Berger (3)   
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 31, 2015 5:19 PM GMT
Live from 6pm SS4
Report workrider January 31, 2015 5:31 PM GMT
Only got paid on last nights 3 ball this afternoon ..Must have been a delay...
Report callitasucit January 31, 2015 5:50 PM GMT
Play suspended late on due to darkness WR. Was about 5 or 6 3 balls to be completed at the time. Laird was one of the last to putt out. Bogey thankfully!!
Report workrider January 31, 2015 6:56 PM GMT
Thanks Callit , thought i'd done my dough...
Report applehunter January 31, 2015 7:25 PM GMT
Koepka playing himself into it.

If Bubba was putting anyway decent he'd be over the hills and far away.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 31, 2015 8:40 PM GMT
Someone please tell Justin Thomas today is movin' day !
Report callitasucit January 31, 2015 8:45 PM GMT
Bubba putting ok today, birds just not dropping. Couple good par saves. Could do with making a move now. 11 under be nice. Very congested behind the leader.

Thomas putting very poor.

That putt of palmers that stopped on hole earlier is still annoying me!!
Report applehunter January 31, 2015 9:02 PM GMT
Yeah, think he could have given it a few more seconds
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 31, 2015 10:52 PM GMT
Good finish from Thomas.....Laird got everything and more today (no way he does the same on Sunday !)
Report Catch Me ifyoucan January 31, 2015 10:54 PM GMT
Zack or Palmer to shoot 64 tomara ?
Report callitasucit January 31, 2015 11:12 PM GMT
Laird got away with murder alright. Very poor finish from Bubba.
Report applehunter January 31, 2015 11:43 PM GMT
Laird holed some big ones for par today.

Can he shoot a 69 on a Sunday because I can see someone in the chasing pack going low.

He looks beatable.
Report applehunter January 31, 2015 11:44 PM GMT
Dubai is another deal..

Rory claimed 68 was his par after Thursday.

He'll probably shoot a 67 which will be a runaway winner.
Report callitasucit January 31, 2015 11:52 PM GMT
Ya Laird looks beatable, but at the same time I wouldn't be rushing out to lay him at 2.86. Shade big IMO.

Rory only has to stay upright. Simply different league. 66 today, and I say he disgusted. Says a lot.

Corals held onto 5s for Augusta until this afternoon. He could start 3s. Only Bubba/Spieth or a miracle cure for the Tiger can stop him IMO.
Report applehunter January 31, 2015 11:56 PM GMT
It's a fair price.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 1, 2015 1:08 PM GMT
Caro must be beatin' the racket off the wall Devil
Report Kelly February 1, 2015 2:51 PM GMT
Rory won pulling up , if you hit the drives as far as he does and they are fairly straight , pars are easy peasy and the odd birdie and eagle will pop up .  Buckets of room on that Dubai course , only problem was the lush rough .

Phoenix not on here , would be middle of night anyway . Good luck to anyone holding nice prices on Laird .
Report callitasucit February 1, 2015 4:19 PM GMT
Won well alright, barely came out of second gear today. Holed the crucial putts when needed, which is something he done most of the week, and is very promising for the challenges ahead.

Think Laird is a big price tonight, but will hold fire, and hope he collapses, with either Palmer or Bubba picking the pieces.

Dabbled in a few 3 balls....
Kevin Na 11-8
Graham de Laet 5-4
Jordan Spieth 11-10
Matt Kuchar 1-1

6 x .5pt Doubles
4 x .75 Trebles
1 x 1pt Accum
Report frank60 February 1, 2015 4:55 PM GMT
Hope its Palmer myself Callit, but hard to see beyond Laird.
Report callitasucit February 1, 2015 9:29 PM GMT
Fascinating finish stateside. Only 5 left with a realistic chance. Bubba and Palmer have messed up there latest par 5s though unfortunately. Will be sick if Matsuyama wins.
Report easygold February 1, 2015 10:36 PM GMT
WOW.........some BOTTLERS in this field.
Report callitasucit February 1, 2015 10:38 PM GMT
A case of 'After You Sir'.
Report easygold February 1, 2015 10:38 PM GMT
Yeah Laird,Palmer,Matt,Watson, woeful
Report applehunter February 1, 2015 10:55 PM GMT
Boom, nice to get one over the line after a couple of dirty 2nd's recently.
Report frank60 February 1, 2015 11:15 PM GMT
Well done Apple,. i had Palmer myself;i dont belive he bottled it like Easy said very unlucky on the 17th. a great tournement and hard luck on Callit who put up pALMER and Bubba at the start,
Report huddys February 1, 2015 11:18 PM GMT
Well done Applehunter,
Report callitasucit February 2, 2015 1:19 AM GMT
Well done Apple, Koepka was pretty impressive in victory. Roll of the ball away from trouble on 17, but would have been very harsh after a superb tee shot.

Palmer was unlucky with his putts on the last 3 holes, two of them looked absolute certs to drop, but he was very lucky with his tee shot on 17. If it wasn't so bad it was wet.

No complaints overall, was a good day. Stuard making bird on the last to tie de Laet was disappointing, and Bubba and Palmer missing a playoff by a shot....but good week.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 4, 2015 1:27 PM GMT
Another WIN for Rory today...

The case between Rory McIlroy and Horizon has been settled out of court.
Paul Gallagher SC for Rory McIlroy has said "entire matter has been settled" in the case against his former management company.
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