Patrick Mullins................ Why you don`t ride from the FRONT more often....

Why..........

Easygold,

Firstly congratulations on your Un De Sceaux analysis.The high opinion you held pre race has obviously been vindicated.

With regard to your stats on front running rides by PM do you factor in

1.The price of the horse
2.The number of runners
3.How stoutly bred the horse is

Stats are easy to quote but are more relevant in some situations than others..For instance are you implying that Fugi Mountain would have won with a front running ride?

It`s not all about winning the race, but I believe he is a better rider when he dictates the pace, results when he has ridden from the front are very solid. I don`t think he is the strongest in a finish either, but when he has first run on the rest that does not matter, but he seems to lose a lot of races when he gives the leaders first run.

I don`t punt in bumpers that often, but when I`m reviewing a race card this has caught my eye and did more research and I was not surprised to see this.

Oh, and cheers Tom with UDS.......... a very exciting prospect for the sport. Couldn`t understand why people where looking elsewhere.

You could hardly say that the jockey on the winner either outrode him or got first run on him in this instance.

Eh, I`m not talking about today.

As for Un de Sceaux he looks a freak and getting him settled better looks the key to him.Putting that amount of distance into decent horses from the second last home was amazing.

But your post was straight after the bumper?

Tom this is going back from 5 years ago, if a rider has a 61.5% when he rides from the front he should do his work that way most of the time. Slowly run contests by less-fancied horses is no good for these beasts especially the price Willie`s owners pays for them. I really believe Mullin`s win ratio would increase massively if they rode them from the front and learn more about the horse sooner.

I can't agree with you.I think the reason his strike rate is so good from the front is because they analyse the races better than most of their opposition and also know their horses better.He often makes the running on horses that are much the best horse in the race and by doing so eliminates the possibility of a false result.
Also because of the amount of work they do with their young horses it is likely that they know better than anyone which ones are suited to making the running.Not every horse is suited to front running and today's runner comes from a family of hold up horses.
With the horse being most likely on the market you can be assured that their tactics today were well thought out and with a decent pace they were obviously happy to sit off it.

All about opinions Tom.......... but the majority of horses he takes on have no form so how they know the opposition`s form is beyond me. And yes they do a lot of work with their horses and possibly have the best horse going into the race. If you are on the best horse in the race, just get on with it and job done.
How often have you seen P.Mullins leave it too late on the so called best horse in the race. In my opinion, way too often.

I didn't say they know the form I said they analyse the races.By that I mean they assess the race to see will they get an uncontested lead....previous form,size of field,likely other pacemakers,weigh room chat as to who will lead etc...
I accept your point about losing some races on the best horse but today was not one of those instances and in any event not every fast finisher is an unlucky loser..
As for my username you obviously are from a different era to me!!!

Eh Hi Tom Lee ..........

Not quite!!

Your opinions are daft to be honest....... asking other riders what they are doing. and analyzing what form by the way, the majority of horses they race against may have raced once ONLY, so looking at previous running styles is dodgy.
When did you see Robbie Mac in the wrong position very rare!!!!!!!!!! Way too many poor rides from Patrick on the best horse over the years.

By the way I`m 40 next birthday.

I was perfectly civil and made well reasoned counter arguments to your over reliance on statistics.To call my opinions daft only highlights your inability to look at alternative viewpoints to your own.
If you are unaware that many tactics are only decided by on the day weigh room chat then you obviously aren't as well clued in as your lofty opinion of yourself has you believe.

I`m civil....... always civil .......... but I`m talking about a rider on the best horse (possibly) 85% every race he should be riding more aggressive in my opinion. Your opinions drifted a bit . I know damn well want goes on in the weighting room, but 90% of races in bumpers are slowly run anyway, so the pace is always going to be sedate.

How did my opinions drift?

Look if you think Patrick rides to his best ability so be it, but your opinions and reasons are all guess work. I have seen a lot of racing and I always trust my eyes.
Take care

Just a quick question easy as you quote a lot of percentages? Is the 85% quoted above based on hard facts or your own intuition from watching the races.

Hi Neill, educated guess. But wouldn`t be far off above or below that number in Ireland in bumpers

Okay Easy, thank you.

Fascinating reply.

I never said that I thought he rides to the best of his ability all the time.I was merely pointing out that not everything about your statistic was as cut and dried as you were making it out to be.

Not every horse is suited to making the running.For example today's race was run at a good gallop for a bumper and the Mullins horse was from a predominantly flat bred family and also a family of hold up horses.Are you able to factor things like this into your statistics??

However the best is yet to come.Having derided my opinion as guesswork he then produces a percentage which when challenged admits is guesswork!!

Is your "guesswork" somehow allowable on a thread and anyone else's well thought out opinion dismissed as "guesswork"

How many times have you used today`s race........ my god????????

I did not say all the time.
In my opinion, races are run slowly a lot of the time in bumpers, so why have your horse in a poor position, when the pace quickens, leaving yourself the chance to get boxed-in or have to swing wide........
I say cut most of that out and get on with it more often, and his results will be stronger.

But your 16.25 post would suggest he did wrong today Easy? No reason for the post otherwise. I would agree with Tolmi that PMW rode the right race today, and I would certainly not be his biggest fan. As a pilot anyway. He seems a lot more honest and upfront than his father.

I used today's race as you posted the minute the race was over and by any logical analysis you were implying that he should have made the running today....then again that's only guesswork on my behalf!!

I would like to see him in front more often yes, today I thought it was the right time to bring up the thread again. Not just about that horse today. It will be very interesting if he starts riding closer to the pace in the near future.

Fair enough.I still think they have certain reasons for the way their horses are ridden.Not every horse is suited to a front running ride.

Personally I think he is a better rider when dictating the pace. He seems to have a good clock in his head. When in behind, he can be a bit over confident at times, and on other occasions go from hard on the snaf to knocking the living daylights out of it, without ever giving it a few shoves first, and a chance to respond. Panic really.

Checked Mullins record in bumpers here and uk, unable to find stats when he made all.

Runs 808 wins 262  32.43%   -£34.49 at sp  +£47.52 at bfsp =5.88%   Max win odds 17 sp and 38 bfsp

I am old enough to remember Tolmi running

Thanks mrcombustible.

easygold my reference to a different era was related to tolmi the racehorse when you were addressing me as Tom!

Coronation winner at Ascot??

Yes 1981 trained by Bruce Hobbs

Cheers......... 81" two years too soon for me. Fair Play

Patrick.... are u reading the Betfair Forum? Positive race riding lately............ more winners and better chances if you keep riding that way.

positive in the bumper yesterday and nina made him look truly amateur. shes in a different league.
The state of him in a finish.

Easygob your grasp of reality or the lack of as it were is very worrying....

Surely this thread should read....Willie Mullins......why don't you let Patrick ride from the FRONT more often.

Father and son can then look in on the forum and take note....

Why don`t u start a thread Fly Fish........... and I can have a good laugh................... ur Dundalk guesses has slowed u down I see.

The numpty's are all out in force today!

Ah come on now Easygob...no need for that sort of attitude....we can't all be professional guessers like your good self.
Your trouble is you take far too much to heart......don't think of my post as a criticism....but as one of enlightenment...