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just wondering what peoples thoughts are on the don Cossack and champagne fever race tomorrow...?
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This has all the hallmarks of a "whichever one you back the other will win" scenario. Got to be a watching brief.
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The track is currently raceable and the going is soft, soft to heavy in places.
FORGET IT LADS.....Fckin freezing, blowing a gale here and rain coming in sideways...more of the same next two days ! OFF imho. |
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that's a fair shout slickster..but im with don tbh, just think hes better this season his jumping especially..
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Champagne Fever is the one to be with here. Will prefer the conditions and I'd say Elliot will have a real eye to Cheltenham with the Don whereas Mullins might be thinking it is time to start mnopping up what you can with Fever. He's the more likely to be spot-on.
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we'll see tomorrow neill, ive been disappointed with fever ..but he has a touch of class and you can never right off those horses
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I think hios run in the Clonmel Oil bodes well in terms of trip and ground. Good luck anyway Tony. If there's a star in it it is the Don but Fever is very good when he gets things his way.
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yes be interesting who makes it..
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Disappointed with Fever? He traveled like the best horse in the race in the king George but as predicted didnt stay. Ruby never used his jumping in the race as he was trying to save him and kept taking a pull. He is a better horse than the Don IMO but tomorrows race is a no bet race.
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The Don is a big soft giraffe who has no chance in Cheltenham
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Poor card imo
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Champagne should be given his head in the Champion Chase. If Walsh could get him to beat MTOY in a Supreme. He could Beat Sire De Grugy in a Champion Chase.
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FFS Snap get a grip , a poor card me arse ,excuse the profanity ..Shows what you know this is a fine card with top horses top trainers top jockeys ..A very good card for this time of year and shows the progress the track is making attracting such high class horses in that g2 ...
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Snap why not give a brief résumé of the Thurles card,in the unlikely event of you getting every race wrong you won't hear one word of complaint from me.
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Poor PUNTING card wonks! Get a grip!
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No prob wildman, will do a race by race run down
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2 odds on shots from Willies ,no doubt your MONSTER nap will be one of them ,rest of the card has the possibilites of at least 2 with chances of winning , good racing and a good betting card if you exclude the 2 odds on , so how you can say its a poor card is beyond me...
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I will give a race by race guide for the mugs here
Race 1:Baily cloud would have gone close last Sunday but with David Casey on board its a no go for me. Welds horse ran nice race in Punchestown on first run over hurdles. No bet Race 2:Milsean wins Race 3: Bottom two horses are the two to focus on. Seamas Mor is not badly handicapped but he has a significant burden on board however but at the odds i will side with him. Tyner horses are apparently under a cloud. Race 4:No bet. if gun to head i go for fever race 5:Fav will win Race 6: Milan Breeze for me. A few decent runs in beginners chases and was given a sharpener last time in Naas. Race 7:Mullins horse the class of the race and should win. Too lazy to give a proper write up but the two for me are Seamas Mor 14/1 and Milan Breeze 16/1. That is all! |
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I said i'd post this article from nick mordin re champagne fever. Not sure I agree but it's definitely food for thought.
Nick Mordin believes Champagne Fever should be given another chance to prove his stamina for three miles SOME interesting statistical trends have developed in the King George. The strongest is that the last 30 winners all won at least half their previous completed starts. However there is another, more recent trend that is a little more troubling. This is the fact that since the inauguration of the Betfair Chase, nine out of 10 King George winners were placed in the big Haydock contest a few weeks earlier, with seven of them winning. My belief is that a Grade 1 race should offer a unique challenge and that it is devalued if it’s essentially a re-run of an earlier contest. In any event Silviniaco Conti (41) qualified on both the big statistics this year. He duly went on to add the King George to his recent Betfair Chase win, taking the Kempton race for the second year running. Normally the King George is run at a furious pace. This year the gallop was simply solid and Silviniaco Conti was pretty much allowed an uncontested lead. He reached the third last 0.73 of a second later than they did in the Feltham Novices’ Chase on the same card. As a result he had plenty left in the tank turning in and was able to kick for home hard from three out, getting from there to the finish in just 37.15 seconds. That’s 2.9 seconds faster than he managed last year and 5.1 seconds faster than the 2012 renewal when I adjust for the different going. Silviniaco Conti remains simply a very decent chaser. There are half a dozen or more as good or better than him on my ratings. He’s always going to be tough to beat on a relatively flat track. He seems less good on tracks with steep gradients, so I’ll be looking elsewhere for this season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner. The relatively fast ground and lack of a scorching gallop enabled Dynaste (40) to last home. He was able to use his speed to pick up nicely in the closing stages. I still see Dynaste as a doubtful stayer. He managed to win in novice company over three miles, but they tend to go a slower early pace in novice races. In non-novice race he’s placed five times but still ended up losing eight from eight in non-novice over three miles at Grade 1 or 2 level. Another doubtful stayer, Al Ferof (38) kept on well enough to be third. Again, I think the fast ground and lack of a testing pace were a big help to him. The fact remains that Al Ferof’s form figures over less than 2m 5f outside point-to-points read: 3112F11111343111. Over 2m 5f+ they read: 33253. You could try to argue that Al Ferof stays three miles on the basis of his point to point win. After all he beat a subsequent Grade 1 winner, Minella Class, into second that day. The problem with that logic is that the race Al Ferof won was a slowly run maiden point-to-point. The time was actually 13 seconds slower than the fastest race which was won by a horse that’s never earned a Racing Post rating bigger than 92 (i.e. selling class). It’s worth noting that the first three home were bred in France. The King George is rapidly becoming the race the French-breds win while the Cheltenham Gold Cup tends to go to Irish-breds. 15 of the last 28 renewals of the King George, including all the last nine, have gone to French-breds. 15 of the last 18 Gold Cups have gone to Irish-breds and only three to French-breds. The first Irish-bred horse home in the King George was fourth placed Champagne Fever (38). My impression is that he was beaten for lack of pace rather than stamina in the closing stages. The French-breds just had too much finishing speed for him due to the relatively fast ground and lack of an all-out early gallop. For most of the race Champagne Fever moved eye-catchingly well. He was caught flat-footed when the winner kicked for home but still held second place right up to the last. It’s worth bearing in mind that all five of Champagne Fever’s pattern wins have come on soft or heavy ground or on a track with a very steep uphill finish. I think he lacks the finishing speed needed to win at the top level when the ground is fast and the track is flat. It’s easy to remember all those times Champagne Fever went off too fast in the lead and stopped. But on his seasonal debut at Clonmel a change in tactics were successfully tried. At Clonmel Champagne Fever was restrained behind the leaders when stepped up to two and a half miles. There was one fence where he briefly jumped himself into the lead (the fifth) and he did have to be kept on a tight rein. He seemed happy enough being restrained. In fact it looked to me that a couple of the jockeys on his rivals kept trying to force him to go on by slowing things down and opening up gaps to make him see too much daylight. This didn’t affect him. He was allowed to bowl along after halfway and had his rivals off the bit turning in. His rider was able to take a look back twice, once on the home turn, the other time after the last, and he saw he was never in trouble. He came home full of running to earn the biggest speed rating I’ve ever given him (42). Like Al Ferof, Champagne Fever won a point-to-point, unlike Al Ferof, his win was in the fastest race of the day. Champagne Fever has now won three of the four times that he’s run two and a half miles plus over fences and lost all four times he’s run shorter distances. It’s quite possible I’m wrong and that he doesn’t stay three miles well enough to win a Grade 1. I’d like to see him given another shot at the distance first in the Hennessy at Leopardstown in February. The going is invariably soft of heavy for that race, so it will be a fairer test for him – one that I’m betting he will pass. After all, he’s a tall, long striding sort who shows a bit of knee action. He has every right to be a bit one-paced and get done for speed in a race like this year’s King George. Fifth placed Cue Card (37) was always prominent until getting outrun in the closing stages. He was off for nearly a year with a stress before this season with a stress fracture to the hip. He improved from a rating of 34 on his first run back to earn a rating of 38 from me last time in the Betfair Chase. But that was six points lower than he earned in the same race last year. He regressed a bit here if my ratings are any guide. It’s a good principle to ignore a horse’s previous form when they come back from a serious injury and treat them as an entirely new horse. On that basis Cue Card looks suspect. He’s run unplaced in all three of his comeback runs. I want to see some signs of a revival before betting that he’ll bounce back to form. |
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Lashing rain and blowing a gale at the moment,strong winds predicted tomorrow so meeting is in some doubt.
Would be a great pity if we lost this meeting as its some card. |
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Not so sure myself and would be doubtful though usually the slower Irish pace might help, the temptation if he got away it would be the Gold Cup and no way,Willie was fairly emphatic in saying he didn,t get the KG trip to entertain the hennessey i,d imagine.
Liked Betterthanalrights course win last time,maybe slightly flattered by mistakes by the placed horses in the straight but was still going to be a comfortable winner. Same positive ride tomorrow over 2f less and hard not to see him being thereabouts. GL. |
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CRACKING MIDWEEK CARD
BAILY CLOUD NB MONTYS MEADOW EW HURDLES FORM IS DECENT KNOCKALONG SAVER SEAMUS MOR TEXAS JACK JENNIES JEWEL EW EMPIRE OF DIRT NAP SOLE WITNESS /LOOKOUTNOW EWAYS HOPE ITS ON WILD UP HERE |
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1.05- Tricky opener, will be laying Battle Hymn
1.35- Look no further than Milsean 2.10- Shamiran at 7/1 is the play here 2.45- Champagne Fever the play at 5/4, should be odds on imo 3.15- Vroom Vroom Mag is cert, and value at 1/2 3.45- Empire of Dirt is a huge lay 4.15- Anything of 4/6 or upwards about Prince de Beauchene is a steal, only has to be steered around |
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SNAP GOOD LUCK IMO EMPIRE OF DIRT BAR FALL IS CERT HIS 4TH BEHIND GILGAMBOA FTO AND COUPLE NICE schools SINCE
BUT ALL ABOUT OPINIONS  |
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Norn if that beast wins I'll eat my hat, he won't ever get a better opportunity than he did in Down Royal last time
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Re Bally Cloud.....Touch of Land is now 0-14 at the distance and 0-13 on heavy going.body of evidence starting to build up here. Also Mouse Morris in maiden hurdles......awful record
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More worrying for me would be Baily Clouds terrible run last time he was in Thurles.
He is also out of a Roselier mare so probably wants further. |
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im looking forward to seeing don and fever..i think the king George showed fever is not a 3m horse..if you carnt get it at Kempton then you wont get it anywere..dons jumping is far better this season..and whoever makes it , will have the advange..and I fancy don for today.11/10 atm.
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ive backed welds in the first @5/1 is a fair price, just hope hes close to the pace.
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JEEZ ITS FECN WILD UP HERE
SNAP WENT THRU RACE AGAIN  EMPIRE OF DIRT IMO IS AS YOU SAY IT MOTHER OF ALL NAPS DOWN ROYAL RACES ARE LOT MORE COMPETITIVE THAT THEY LOOK AND CANT SEE IT LOSING BAR A FALL JEEZ WWAS EVEN 4 LTHS BEHIND FAUGHEEN OVER HURDLES HAS BEST FORM BY MILE IMO SO TIME WILL TELL GOOD LUCK WISH HAD TOOK 7/2 LAST NIGHT  |
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Betterthanalright,to make all............... worried about the trip for EOD.
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2 I like today:
Golden Plan 2.10 5/1 Good form when beating Charles Byrnes hotpot @ Limerick couple of runs ago. 2 decent 4ths since when he made a couple of poor jumping mistakes and have to forgive latest run @ Naas which was probably too competitive for him. Annie Oakley 3.15 33/1 Often get a surprise in these mares chases and if there is one, it could be this mare. Her 4 runs over fences have all been decent, her latest one @ limerick possibly the most disappointing. Good chance of a place anyway. Good luck lads, great card. |
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Hell Cat Maggie 25/1 with boyles is not a bad e/way bet,he hasn,t had the best of luck of late, 3.15thurles
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Exchange Traded And Available
Betfair Starting Price Price To back To lay Traded Backers' Stake Layers' Liability 1.01 £14,501 1.02 £1,095 1.03 £2,106 1.04 £1,913 1.05 £100 1.06 £84 1.07 £200 1.08 £92 1.09 £2 1.1 £264 1.11 £655 1.12 £421 1.13 £35 1.15 £163 1.18 £35 1.2 £800 1.21 £70 1.22 £7 1.23 £658 1.24 £80 1.25 £60 1.26 £2,135 1.27 £351 1.28 £1 £17 1.29 £117 1.3 £113 1.31 £135 1.32 £272 1.33 £694 1.34 £758 1.35 £2 £64 1.36 £47 1.37 £164 £2,191 1.38 £454 1.39 £8 1.4 £1,245 1.41 £16 1.42 £2,328 1.43 £80 1.44 £15 1.46 £17 1.47 £13 1.48 £20 1.49 £5 1.5 £287 1.51 £138 1.52 £484 1.55 £604 1.56 £41 1.58 £14 1.59 £50 1.6 £978 1.61 £2 1.62 £10 1.63 £6 1.64 £7 1.65 £14 1.66 £53 1.67 £7 1.68 £13 1.69 £20 1.7 £423 1.71 £42 1.72 £44 1.73 £3 1.74 £19 1.75 £42 1.76 £124 1.83 £7 1.9 £4 2 £9 £48 2.04 £1 2.06 £1 2.12 £4 2.24 £105 2.3 £3 £39 2.34 £76 2.36 £50 2.42 £1 2.44 £109 2.46 £2 2.5 £100 2.52 £21 2.54 £90 2.76 £80 2.84 £80 2.98 £7 3 £6 3.05 £160 3.15 £4 3.2 £6 3.25 £1 £30 3.3 £4 3.35 £3 £50 3.4 £0 3.5 £10 3.55 £1 £3 3.6 £3 3.65 £58 3.75 £10 3.8 £1 3.9 £4 4 £158 4.2 £34 4.3 £12 4.4 £16 4.5 £40 4.7 £5 5 £35 5.1 £5 5.4 £6 5.6 £49 5.7 £51 6.2 £4 6.4 £25 6.6 £5 7 £16 7.4 £28 7.6 £10 8.2 £8 8.4 £1 8.8 £0 £1 9 £0 9.2 £5 9.6 £0 10 £104 11 £15 11.5 £3 12 £6 12.5 £24 13 £49 14 £9 15 £13 15.5 £6 16 £4 16.5 £16 17 £28 17.5 £0 18 £61 18.5 £4 19 £0 £27 19.5 £9 20 £115 21 £59 22 £41 23 £11 24 £10 25 £32 26 £34 27 £4 28 £5 29 £8 30 £10 32 £3 34 £11 36 £64 38 £32 40 £26 42 £17 44 £52 46 £44 48 £34 50 £53 55 £135 60 £82 65 £34 70 £28 75 £45 80 £20 85 £24 90 £3 95 £14 100 £17 110 £7 120 £20 130 £18 140 £57 150 £28 160 £23 163.68 £51 £5,079 170 £54 180 £77 190 £82 200 £79 210 £44 220 £110 230 £117 240 £87 250 £38 260 £16 270 £11 280 £14 290 £7 300 £1 310 £0 320 £17 370 £0 400 £4 440 £0 £7 500 £48 650 £0 760 £0 990 £0 1000 £0 Exchange Traded And Available Betfair Starting Price Price To back To lay Traded Backers' Stake Layers' Liability 1.01 £14,501 1.02 £1,095 1.03 £2,106 1.04 £1,913 1.05 £100 1.06 £84 1.07 £200 1.08 £92 1.09 £2 1.1 £264 1.11 £655 1.12 £421 1.13 £35 1.15 £163 1.18 £35 1.2 £800 1.21 £70 1.22 £7 1.23 £658 1.24 £80 1.25 £60 1.26 £2,135 1.27 £351 1.28 £1 £17 1.29 £117 1.3 £113 1.31 £135 1.32 £272 1.33 £694 1.34 £758 1.35 £2 £64 1.36 £47 1.37 £164 £2,191 1.38 £454 1.39 £8 1.4 £1,245 1.41 £16 1.42 £2,328 1.43 £80 1.44 £15 1.46 £17 1.47 £13 1.48 £20 1.49 £5 1.5 £287 1.51 £138 1.52 £484 1.55 £604 1.56 £41 1.58 £14 1.59 £50 1.6 £978 1.61 £2 1.62 £10 1.63 £6 1.64 £7 1.65 £14 1.66 £53 1.67 £7 1.68 £13 1.69 £20 1.7 £423 1.71 £42 1.72 £44 1.73 £3 1.74 £19 1.75 £42 1.76 £124 1.83 £7 1.9 £4 2 £9 £48 2.04 £1 2.06 £1 2.12 £4 2.24 £105 2.3 £3 £39 2.34 £76 2.36 £50 2.42 £1 2.44 £109 2.46 £2 2.5 £100 2.52 £21 2.54 £90 2.76 £80 2.84 £80 2.98 £7 3 £6 3.05 £160 3.15 £4 3.2 £6 3.25 £1 £30 3.3 £4 3.35 £3 £50 3.4 £0 3.5 £10 3.55 £1 £3 3.6 £3 3.65 £58 3.75 £10 3.8 £1 3.9 £4 4 £158 4.2 £34 4.3 £12 4.4 £16 4.5 £40 4.7 £5 5 £35 5.1 £5 5.4 £6 5.6 £49 5.7 £51 6.2 £4 6.4 £25 6.6 £5 7 £16 7.4 £28 7.6 £10 8.2 £8 8.4 £1 8.8 £0 £1 9 £0 9.2 £5 9.6 £0 10 £104 11 £15 11.5 £3 12 £6 12.5 £24 13 £49 14 £9 15 £13 15.5 £6 16 £4 16.5 £16 17 £28 17.5 £0 18 £61 18.5 £4 19 £0 £27 19.5 £9 20 £115 21 £59 22 £41 23 £11 24 £10 25 £32 26 £34 27 £4 28 £5 29 £8 30 £10 32 £3 34 £11 36 £64 38 £32 40 £26 42 £17 44 £52 46 £44 48 £34 50 £53 55 £135 60 £82 65 £34 70 £28 75 £45 80 £20 85 £24 90 £3 95 £14 100 £17 110 £7 120 £20 130 £18 140 £57 150 £28 160 £23 163.68 £51 £5,079 170 £54 180 £77 190 £82 200 £79 210 £44 220 £110 230 £117 240 £87 250 £38 260 £16 270 £11 280 £14 290 £7 300 £1 310 £0 320 £17 370 £0 400 £4 440 £0 £7 500 £48 650 £0 760 £0 990 £0 1000 £0 SOME NICE £ AT BIG PRICES FOR SUMONE |
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haley is looking very fetching.are they false eye lashes?is gazza trying to make a move?
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Fine crowd going by the tv.Must be at least 50 people there.
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looks a few lads waiting for opening time .
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is wildman the geezer with the wellies,the sports jacket and the cap?
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Thought Champagne had a hard enough run at Kempton coupled with I think Don Coss is an improved horse this year means I'll be backing Don Coss.
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THINK TEXAS JACK OVERPRICED 9/1
 RACE COULD WELL BE RUN SUIT THIS HORSE THAT VERY RARELY GETS CREDIT |