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callitasucit
12 Aug 14 20:04
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Date Joined: 27 Sep 11
| Topic/replies: 5,332 | Blogger: callitasucit's blog
After the thrills and spills of last week, its back to more mundane fare this week. And mundane is being polite, this weeks field is very poor.

But there will be a winner, and it may be quite an obvious one.

Tim Clark is a recent winner, doing me a favour in the process, and in winning that week he was consolidating good recent form. He looked like a winner in waiting, and confirmed that with a superb final round to reel in Jim Furyk. He has had two outings since that, and hasn't set the world alight, but Firestone and Valhalla were never going to be Timmy's cup of tea. Sedgefield is. Two top 6's in his last 3 completed starts here, and a Sunday 64 last year which confirmed he has the tools to take this place apart, show that he will be far more at home here. Considering his current well being, 33-1 looks massive to me. The one small worry is that it is his 4th week on the trot, but his missed cut at the weekend will help in that regard. Expect a very prominent showing.

Brandt Snedeker is a deserving favourite. This is a dire field, with very little strength, never mind strength in depth. Sned has been somewhat in the golfing wilderness for awhile, but he has being showing signs for a few weeks now that he could be ready to end his exile from the winners enclosure. Teaming up with Butch Harmon has had an predictably positive effect, and he wont get many better chances of  a win, than here this week. He has performed creditably here before, and if he can get his putter going to even 90% of its brilliant best, then he will take a firm hand in the finish.

Carl Pettersson is a former winner here, amongst other good performances. Its a track that sets up nicely for him, an opening round 62 in 2012 showing he can shoot the lights out, and he will probably have had his sights set on this, while others have been trying to fry bigger fish. Fresh off only two competitive rounds in 5 weeks, he is likely to figure prominently. He is not bullet proof in a finish, but not too many in this field have seen the judges camera in a while, so I will take my chances. 

Brendon de Jonge is another who will be at home on this layout, and like the others capable of going very low. The winner is going to have at least one round where they went birdie crazy, and the Zimbabwean fits the bill. He hasn't been setting the world alight, and indeed has never troubled the judge here, but any slight improvement on his 4 solid rounds in 2012 will be enough to suffice here, in what is a much weaker field.

Freddie Jacobson looks a very big price in field shy on star names. He got off to a roaring start in Valhalla last week, suggesting his game is near enough to peaking. His performance tailed off, but better can be expected here, where he has two top 20 finishes from his two visits.

Gonzalo Fernandez Castano requires slightly more imagination. He has never played Sedgefield before, but there are valid reasons to expect him to take a liking to it. He went very close in the Canadian Open, a series of short putts missed over the 4 days ultimately proving costly. But this is commonplace, so don't expect an improvement there!! But he is 125-1 in shops and 160 on here, so lets not expect perfection from him! Like Clark, he wont have had his ideal conditions the last two weeks, but its perfectly plausible that he may now continue  his good form, on a layout where I have no doubt he will give himself enough birdie chances to go very close....lets just hope he takes them. 

Martin Laird and Scott Piercey came close to selection, and for those feeling adventurous Rocco Mediate is probably worth a fiver of anyones money at 1000-1.

2pts e.w Brandt Snedeker 16-1
1pt e.w Tim Clark 33-1
.5pt e.w Brendon de Jonge 66-1
.5pt e.w Freddie Jacobson 66-1
.6pt e.w Carl Pettersson 50-1
.3pt e.w Gonzo Castano 125-1

8pts Tim Clark Top 20 13-8(cracking bet, should be 4-6 imo)

Running Total...... +29.95pts
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Report frank60 August 12, 2014 9:46 PM BST
AS ever a excellent review callit ,info  noted
Report frank60 August 12, 2014 10:04 PM BST
Callit and premier fantasy [greyhound racing] are always worth noteing, P.F. was excellent with his tips in the 1st rd heats of the irish greyhound derby last week not withstanding some of his selections for the outright winner which included laughill blake at 100/1 now down to 16/1.  Keen leader only pays us the occasional visit but is always worth listening to,there are a few more on our forum who know there stuff. keep them coming lads you cant be right all the time but overall the averages are very good, we need all the help we can get.Happy
Report newapproach August 12, 2014 10:18 PM BST
5 e/w picks for me this week stateside:

Webb Simpson 20/1
Won this event impressively in 2011 and showed some improved form last few weeks with 3rd @ Greenbrier Classic.

Tim Clark 33/1
Did the forum a good turn @ Canadian Open and 2nd place finish here in 2012 shows liking for this course.

Brian Harman 40/1
Won John Deere Classic well a couple of weeks ago and has shown strong form in this event past few years. Confidence should be sky-high.

Billy Horschel 45/1
Played 6 great events before British Open and will hope to carry on that return to form this week. Massive price imo.

Scott Brown 100/1
Hits the keys stats well this week which include driving acc, putting. Played very well last 3 years @ John Deere which correlates well with this course.

Good luck all.
Report frank60 August 12, 2014 11:38 PM BST
Both  New AND Callit putting Tim Clark up at 33/1  im on, i hope i can get 35/1 as well.
Report huddys August 13, 2014 6:32 PM BST
3 for me against the field this week in America,
1st selection is Snedeker e/w 14/1 missed the early 16/1 that was about earlier in the week,agree with everything that call said about him,great chance this week in a very week field,
2nd selection is Tim Clark hopefully this thread will be buzzing when hes in the running come sunday night,
3rd selection is Patrick Reed who done me a nice favour last year winning this event,again missed the 28/1 on Monday,only got 22/1,
All selections are e/w,was going to do a few in Europe but decided to give it a miss this week,best of luck this week lads,
Report workrider August 13, 2014 10:08 PM BST
Three for me , T  Immelman 460/1 Moon Bae 160/1  Ricky  Barnes 200/1 all for a tenner ...No logic to my bets , just a few players I have backed in the past , and at those prices hard to let them run loose...
Report pa lapsy August 14, 2014 1:10 PM BST
Don't want to put the mockers on Tim but -2 thru 2, keep going,choo choo.
Report callitasucit August 14, 2014 1:29 PM BST
3 putt bogey from 26ft on the next Pa!!
Report pa lapsy August 14, 2014 1:35 PM BST
I should know better than to post when going good in golf Callit,you nearly always get a kick in the ballez,i,ll keep my mouth shut,gl all with your picks this week.
Report callitasucit August 14, 2014 1:43 PM BST
Cheers, tis very early days alright. Didn't want to see Martin Lairds name on any leaderboard though!
Report callitasucit August 15, 2014 5:04 PM BST
Hopefully Clark can put in a good shift this evening. Top of the leaderboard has a weak enough look to it at the moment, so a nice 65 would see him in a lovely position. Not overjoyed to see Piercey & Laird going so well.
Report callitasucit August 15, 2014 5:06 PM BST
Freddie Jacobson at 100 on here is a massive price.
Report callitasucit August 16, 2014 12:34 AM BST
Cracking round from Jacobson puts him in the mix,....but there are plenty more in there with him! Clark recovered well from a horror start to sit on the fringes, and a 3 putt from 4ft was the difference between Pettersson sharing the lead or being 2 shots behind. Infuriating.

I had a few quid on Thorbjorn Olesen in Denmark earlier in the week, but another worth a wager at current prices is Eddie Pepperell. He unfortunately finished todays round with a bogey, but will still be delighted with his efforts. He is someone who I feel will become a household name on the European Tour shortly, and this could be his chance to gain a breakthrough win. He is 7 shots shot off the lead, but only 3 shots off second. Bradley Dredge is not known for his prowess from the front, so Pepperell is still right in this.

.5pt e.w Eddie Pepperell 55-1(4 places)
Report pa lapsy August 16, 2014 1:18 PM BST
Freddie did well last night for ya,Clark also came back into it to give some chance, so many can win that though.
Danish tournament is a war of attrition,brutal conditions,small interest in Steve Webster at 100+ at lev T13,will be in a fair bit better position by the rounds end.
Report callitasucit August 16, 2014 1:54 PM BST
Ya Pa, 4 under could lead by end of the day. Dredge looks ragged.
Report workrider August 16, 2014 2:06 PM BST
Thought Dredge was going to make it , seems to have fallen way down the pile in the last few years , what do you make of his fall from grace Callit  ?
Report callitasucit August 16, 2014 2:19 PM BST
Just seemed to disappear WR. I backed him when he won the European Masters in 2006, when himself and Alex Noren had it between themselves for the weekend. He too seems to have fallen off the face of planet golf. As regards Dredge, I suppose he was always inconsistent at best, and never looked comfortable in a lead. That 2006 win was his only win from 8 halfway leads. If he doesn't win this week, its hard to see where he will find another.

In any sport its a lot easier keep focussed, and maintain dedication if you are being successful. If you feel you are not getting just desserts for your time and effort, then it is a lot more difficult to stick at it. And if it's improvement you needed, you are going to go backwards quickly if distractions appear.

Thomas Bjorn has been unbelievably bad since Thursday.
Report workrider August 16, 2014 3:05 PM BST
I see were you're coming from re Bradley , sad to see such huge swing in form though..
Report callitasucit August 17, 2014 1:03 AM BST
I haven't given up hope on Pepperell, he has 5 shots to find, but I wouldn't trust the two leaders with much when the pressure is on. Time and again the final have group have faltered this year. Olesen and Pepperell would still be my idea of the two most likely to take advantage if they collapse.

Thomas Bjorn will be kicking himself. His short range putting has been nothing short of a disgrace. One can only think he is under the cosh a bit trying to land his home event. Olesen looks wired, and though a bit wayward, has been holing out very well. The current 12-1 on him is very big imo. As is the 45s on Pepperell!!

2.5pts win Thorbjorn Olesen 12-1
Report workrider August 17, 2014 2:11 PM BST
Just topped up a little on Ricky , @ 150 on here , only four shots off the lead , and come tonight he might just reel them in...
Report pa lapsy August 17, 2014 10:07 PM BST
Good finish to this, bet you are watching Callit,GL.
Report huddys August 17, 2014 10:10 PM BST
Ye Pa hopefully Freddie can do it for him,
Report callitasucit August 17, 2014 10:12 PM BST
Was hoping you didn't put the blink on Freddie there Pa!! Would be delighted with 3 way playoff at mo. Last hole very tricky, especially under the cosh. Freddie not known for his bottle!! Villegas was very impressive coming in I thought. Holed all the clutch putts, great no fuss par on the last.
Report callitasucit August 17, 2014 10:17 PM BST
Horrible putt. Jesus!!
Report callitasucit August 17, 2014 10:29 PM BST
That just needed hitting, lovely line. 50-50 for par from there considering the pressure. Be disgusted if doesn't nab playoff after the drive.
Report callitasucit August 17, 2014 10:32 PM BST
Ah jesus Fred....
Report Dan Chipowski August 17, 2014 10:35 PM BST
Two truly pathetic putts from Jacobson on the last there.
Report callitasucit August 17, 2014 10:37 PM BST
Very poor, first one was a fuc*in bullet, and second never had a chance. That's pretty sickening. Gobsh*te.
Report Ozymandius August 18, 2014 10:57 AM BST
Very unlucky dude.
Report pa lapsy August 18, 2014 1:17 PM BST
Inspired pick at 100/1 i/r Callit,cruel last hole and rest went right with Slocum and Watney,real hard lines.
Report frank60 August 18, 2014 10:16 PM BST
Backed freddie myself, the putting was bad on the 18 but what was the 2nd shot , all aboutScared
Report callitasucit August 19, 2014 4:17 PM BST
Must have caught it slightly heavy Frank. It was perfect for line.
Report frank60 August 19, 2014 8:07 PM BST
I thought he might have used a club less Callit, IT CAUSED US A PLAY OFF AT LEASTCry
Report callitasucit August 19, 2014 8:24 PM BST
Once he hit it, he was shouting at it to go. Just say he didn't hit it sweet. Would have been nice to get the playoff, or a putt at the win first.
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