Market Moves

Interesting topic, 3 races at this point in time have roughly a thousand matched,typical figure these days, it seems to me nowadays that there is almost a complete reversal that betfair is now following the books rather than the other way round particulary early, main reason for that is probably bfs punitive charges,certainly want to be off your game to try and make a fist of making a market.
What i think is a feature on bf,s Irish racing markets these days is quite a few shorten typically around 30 minutes before off and drift a few minutes before the race,think someone is making a lot of money on that,but that is only my observation and conjecture.
King of Oriel for the amount of horses has a third of all bets matched on the race so far.
As said think it is an interesting thread and look forward to your findings on it/examples.

Nice write up R.A...Lovely to see a racing topic so well presented , Pa's points re someone making money from these early markets are also of interest ..Well done again R.A..

I though Hogan was a little unlucky with Dun Scaith in that he hammered the remainder of the field and was unlucky to run into an unexposed winner. He stayed on reasonably well when headed and despite the usual hood seemed to run an honest race. Won't be following him as he's probably a rogue as wr implies. The confidence was genuine but maybe yesterday was his derby.

Royal Beauty was doing her best but looks very average. I hadn't spotted one of my old favourites here yesterday (ex-Wachman Hazy Days) and he ran ok but I suspect unless he was owner-trained that he would be protein for some other carnivore by now. I'd love to know what Madden thinks of him.

Hard to know what to make of King Of Oriel but he looked to get a quiet ride from Thornton and no money appeared for him on course. wildman's deleted comment about connections most likely accurate and the early shortening in price was inaccurate. A handicap at Galway may be the plan under either code.

6.20pm Bellewstown: 5f 2yo maiden

Matty Tynan has trade connections with Coolmore and he has always dabbled in a few horses at home. He's been having a fantastic time of it this year with Maontrai winning 4 at Dundalk in the winter and he has already trained a 2yo winner in Coto. Today sees support for another 2yo of his and Some Character, like Coto, is a debutant by first-season-sire Fast Company. It's a competive little heat with money for Wachman's and Murtagh's but this declaration of intent for Some Character makes me interested in him for the foreseeable future. Tynan picked up Some Character from his pinhooking neighbour Thomond O'Mara and the market suggests he's been well-bought as his pedigree is sound.

7.50pm Bellewstown: 1m4f 3+ maiden

The day's other significant mover is again from an unfashionable source and it is John McConnell's Teofilo colt Lucent Dream who cost €50,000 as a yearling in 2012. He is out of a very good Group 3 winning miler who won 8 times for Frances Crowley. The combination of Gary Carroll and McConnell had a local winner last night and I will be keeping close tabs on this horse from now on.

Sunday 6 July: Bellewstown

I take reasonable confidence in the market if a horse shortens both in the morning and, later, on-course. This was the case with Frances Slevin’s Mr Boss Man in Sunday’s Bellewstown bumper and I note that he is still valiantly trying to win a winners’ bumper five starts after collecting a soft-looking 2m Punchestown bumper last November. He obviously has a penalty to carry in all these starts and when I tell you that he has taken on a Willie Mullins odds-on winner in four of these (Tony Martin supplied an odds-on loser in the fifth event) you might wonder what is going on and...why bother?

Perhaps the horse is merely a conveyance for the trainer’s brother and does shape as if he will be a stayer in time when he goes jumping. But it still begs the question: where did Sunday’s confidence come from?

He was tried in a hood on Sunday and my guess is that the horse travels on most ground and that a 2.5m trip is the least he wants. He was a very eye-catching leader into the straight in a Listowel bumper in early June (rider looking about for danger when upsides a horse about to sprout wings!) and there will be a few opportunities for him over the coming weeks. Now that connections have left their dough behind on a couple of occasions he may be a working man’s price.

The main mover on the day was Denis Hogan’s Drive The Bus who went off the 11/4F from early morning 9’s in a division of the low-grade 2.5m handicap hurdle. The horse has had the classic preparation for this assignment: three runs in bumpers followed by three poor runs in maiden hurdles to “achieve” a bargain basement rating of 84. He was given a sighter in his first handicap over 2m at Roscommon in June and they were probably lucky to get away with that run as it looked full of promise under a tender ride. Sunday was the plan but the money was left behind when, not for the first time when the pressure is applied, the horse ran out of steam badly before the third last. We’ve now been told that he’s far, far better than this and his handler doesn’t make too many mistakes.

There was money for Conor O’Dwyer’s (Barry Connell/Danny Mullins) Court Frontier in the 3m handicap hurdle but in my opinion this horse’s mark was ruined by a fourth-placing in a maiden hurdle at Cork last November when he was due to qualify for a mark closer to sub-ninety. This means he is carrying a stone more than necessary and, regardless of how good he may be, it makes life more difficult than necessary.



Sunday 6 July: Limerick

The handicap chase run at 5.05pm has been a so-called Galway Plate Trial since 2010 and its fair to say the racecourse should be charged under the trade descriptions act. Three horses, Rohan’s Pride, A Decent Excuse and Grove Field, all attracted good support but the subsequent exploits of runners historically from this race leaves a lot to be desired, let alone winning Galway Plates! So although you might think it wise to follow this money (horse being readied for another day), history dictates otherwise.


Tuesday 8 July: Roscommon

Ouch! The Denis Hogan supporters’ fingers were burnt again when Royal Shot failed to deliver on expectations in the 2m (80-95) handicap hurdle. He went off at 7/2F (from much higher) and disappointed in a very ordinary contest-although aren’t they all!

This was the first indication that he has some ability and came to win his race around the last bend before fading quickly two out after delivering his challenge. I always like to see a horse display some pace in a race and this was evident here when jockey/trainer Hogan made his decisive albeit thwarted move. I think there may be a race in him. However, and this remark also applies to Drive The Bus, as Hogan’s horses are performing reasonably well this season you would prefer to see them run a better race in defeat i.e. finish in the frame, before trusting them with your money so none of the above are nominated to my list for now.

Oak Bluffs is best priced 8/1 in the 1st at Donny tomorrow. I expect his SP to be a lot shorter

10 July: Leopardstown

1m4f  3+ fillies maiden

There’s nothing like a surprise pedigree to spark my attention in a flat horse and there was certainly an unraced colt of some considerable interest lurking in this maiden last night. That he attracted some modest enquiries in the on-course market just adds a few percentage points to the interest rate.

I’ve often written of my admiration for Joe Murphy’s Crampscastle operation and he took the wraps off a colt last night who is no less than full-brother to Ballydoyle’s brilliant 10f-12f performer Cape Blanco who was retired to Coolmore’s US base and will have his first two-year-olds next season. Cape Blanco is out of a 5f specialist who in turn was a half-sister to Jack “red shirt” Berry’s very speedy Paris House so producing an Irish Derby winner from this distaff line is no mean feat. Somewhat surprisingly, Murphy’s full-brother, Fortunate Son, was never entered for a sale leading to the conclusion that he had some serious issues as a foal and yearling  so the joint owners Vere Hunt and Ronan will have been very disappointed not to cash in on their success. (As Cape Blanco did fetch £330,000 as a yearling in 2008 the £28,000 broodmare investment back in 1997 owes them nothing in any event).

Last night’s debut for Fortunate Son suggested he was quite green (broke slowly and wandered under pressure if not hinting at head carriage issues) and the one-mile trip was probably well below the optimum trip. If you own or train a horse that at one stage had a potential value of €1m how do you plot its career from here on?

If there was a horse in this race oozing potential it was the second-placed King Schultz trained by Ted Walsh for Barry Connell and given a seriously class ride by Billy Lee. Lee gets horses to travel beautifully and you have to think that this horse should build on this run. He was completely ignored in the market and it’s coincidental to note that he was bred by the same Cape Blanco/Fortunate Son partnership. 


8.00pm 3+ 1m6f handicap (0-85)

Benkei (Takashi Kodama) has been something of a talking horse since a reasonably promising third at Navan in April but he’s now been backed on all three of his subsequent starts and it’s easy to lose confidence in him. In hindsight, the Navan race wasn’t the contest it may have appeared and I thought the step up in trip last night might have revealed Benkei as well-handicapped plodder. Given his trainer has trained one winner in 96 starters over 7 seasons – and that horse had been second in a Melbourne and Japan Cup! – you are investing a lot in a trainer whose operation I know little about. On current evidence he needs to drop 7lbs+ to be a winner.

8.30pm 3+ 1m4f handicap (0-70)

It wouldn’t be a report on Irish market movers at present without a beaten Denis Hogan-trained springer. This time the honour goes to Winter Lion who was backed (apparently) both off and on-course to win this apprentice handicap for Ana O’Brien. I say “apparently” in that one presumes that any hint of money for a Hogan horse will see the drawbridge raised immediately but, nonetheless, it’s clear there was some level of support for this 4yo gelding (by Galileo) who was bought unraced out of Currabeg for just £8,500 last summer.

Prior to last evening he had run 6 times without success (best finish being a poor 5th in a Dundalk maiden) and was ridden on every occasion by Seamie Heffernan. It seemed a strange decision to plump for an apprentice race given how well Heffernan knows the horse and he was well-beaten into 5th – 10L off the winner off an undemanding mark of 60. In fairness, his jockey did nothing wrong and he was never a threat. It’s unlikely that the rain-softened ground was an excuse so the jury will remain undecided until a few more runs give more evidence of ability (or not). Appearing to be well-handicapped and being so seems to be a distinction that hasn’t yet being grasped by those punting these Cloughjordan horses in recent days.

Horses to follow:
Ramone
Some Character
Lucent Dream
Stronger Than Me
King Schultz

them vinnes roes are v slow pa..but i agree theres a race in that lad.today might just be the day if he gets in

No excuses there Kavvie, got a great ride and for a stride or two looked as if he could do it,disappointing he lost 2nd late on.Not sure will he ever get a race and one i,d be inclined to forget about.
Tyners one mentioned earlier had an entry tonight but swerved it,also entered Thursday in what looks his class,prefer a couple out of it(Good Decision,Silver Chief) but looks a race he could go well in if he takes it up.

A running commentary on all significant market moves is an impossible task for now so I will concentrate on the recently-supported horses I think are capable of winning before long-all go into my tracker and I will be following them over the summer along with the previous five .

Succeed And Excel 3g (Charles O’Brien)

This horse has a nice pedigree being by the excellent Exceed And Excel (gets sprinters and winners up to one-mile) and after a 2yo spin last December it was decided that he would be handicapped-you can check out for yourself how that project was achieved. I have to say I’m impressed with the mark they’ve managed with him-just 47!-and a 7f trip on unsuitable soft ground in his first handicap was unlikely to offend the handicapper who doesn’t appreciated being made look foolish.
The gloves came off in his second handicap start at Navan two weeks ago (ultimately a disappointing 7L 9/10 in 6f 3yo handicap {g-f}) but if he has a modicum of ability to go along with his nice pedigree (half-brother to 6 winners) he should be capable of much better.
I’m a little uncertain if he merits inclusion just at the moment but the prospect of decent future odds swings it. The trainer may not be exactly hungry for success but he has his moments and MacMahon is a long-standing patron of his.

Bwindi 3g (J Murtgah)

Not much doubt this horse merits inclusion. Handicapped by JPM in three runs over an inadequate 7f in 24 days, connections will have been pleased with his initial mark of 55. Well-backed to win a 10f Fairyhouse handicap on 13 July, the cat is now out of the bag where his half-length second placing earned his a 3lb penalty and a few painful groans for supporters. Murtagh was probably wondering if he should have claimed 10lbs with his daughter Caroline who seems a capable enough pilot.
The horse was momentarily outpaced up the straight when the race was there to be won and stayed on well to be just beaten at the death. They will be considering a step up in trip I imagine and you have to think it’s just a matter of time now for a victory or two.

Thoonavolla 6yo (Eoin Doyle)

As most of us know the secret to following horses is trying to catch them on their perfect day and Thoonavolla has been running into very good hurdling form on summer ground although he has been backed on all his recent starts without managing to win. Placed efforts at Ballinrobe (20f gd) and Downpatrick (18f gd) have been very respectable and he just needs a modicum of luck to finally put his head in front. Summer ground, cheekpieces and a minimum of 2.5m should provide optimum opportunity and I will be following him while the ground remains good-firm. I would pin my hopes on him winning at the Tramore Festival in a few weeks time. He’s picked up a few extra pounds recently – haven’t we all! – but a mark of just 88 shouldn’t provide an anchor.

Dun Scaith also ran in this race richters, tried and failed to make all. Benkei was punted again last night (11-July above) and ran a cracker but was beaten into third. He does need to drop those few pounds as I suggested. I'm only following my "list" horses in any event.

Here's a few from Killarney recently and they are typical of the low profile horse I love to follow closely:

Mister Victor 6yo g by Old Vic (Nick stokes)

Nick Stokes is a point-to-point handler to whose horses I pay attention when he has produced a four or five-year-old maiden winner as they generally train on when sold to run under rules.  His only winner under rules (from very few attempts) was Arguidos a couple of years ago and I am hoping that Mister Victor has a similar-type profile to that horse who was successful off a mark of 89 in a Cork hurdle.

Mister Victor has definite ability and has been quietly-fancied on all three of his starts in handicap hurdles. His run at Killarney a couple of weeks ago has to be forgiven (no apparent excuse and Stokes will have been tormented by the way he capitulated before three from home) but these horses of average ability have to be persevered with and many do get their day eventually. They may up him in trip (from 2.5m) so he is worth following for his next few runs.

I do think his fourth-placing at Tipperary on 5 June was a very nice run as the first and second have both won since and Hurricane Sky (5th) looks a well-handicapped horse also.

Railway Storm 9yo chaser (Mary Twohig)

They’re trying a long time to win a race under rules with Railway Storm who looks like he deserves a turn. He’s lightly-raced and he has snippets of form (to go along with being backed on a few occasions) that suggests that a sub-90 mark is not at all demanding.  I think his ideal conditions could be with a hint of soft, a trip over three miles and why not claim a few pounds off him for good measure. I’ve followed many chasers over the years with similar profiles (sent park racing after a point win for relatively unknown connections) and they do tend to get their turn with Eoghan O’Grady’s Unoccupied being a particular favourite of mine.

Ittimetogo 6yo Germany mare (John F O’Neill)

A winning mare at Ballingarry  in 2012 Ittimetogo probably should have won at Clonmel in June when she just failed to get up by a head in a handicap hurdle at odds of 25/1 & from a mark of 90. Prior to this, she had some form over 2m – 2.5m on a range of going to suggest she had a modest contest in her. She’s been a little disappointing in two runs since (raised 3lbs and fell, when punted, at Killarney recently) but she has the best chance of giving her Clare trainer a winner under rules for some time. For a point winner its a little surprising she’s running well over the minimum trip but she could be decent value to sneak that elusive win on her next few runs.

Galway:  28 July – 3 August

Monday:

Dudes And Diamonds (Anne Marie O’Shea)

To find this horse shortening in a race that saw a betting battle royal between Ballydoyle and Rosewell House (Jamaica and Postulation) suggests that, however foolish Monday’s punters were, there is a decent race or two to be won by this horse-possibly in a nursery or handicap next season. O’Shea managed to train a 2yo winner last season (Diamond Stilettos) so it’s not an unthinkable scenario. The horse has decent Tipperary form in the book and definitely has ability.

Massini’s Trap (James Nash)

Unplaced in the “GPT” (I go to my grave convinced I should have won this race some years ago but for a jockey getting a rush of blood) I was very impressed by Nash’s upfront pre-race interview with Tracey Piggott – “he’s definitely this class i.e. rated 74, but maybe not quite yet and I’m desperately worried about the draw.” The draw was the horse’s undoing and I think he should be a longer term prospect to win some good quality races.  When he won at Ballinrobe in May Nash spoke of him in Hurdle terms. He might do the double next year so I’d probably send him chasing now for a year!

Tuesday:

Baraweez was the horse to take from the Topaz mile for me but as he’s already won since I now go to the 7f 55-80 handicap that was won later that evening by Jane Foley’s Surreal. Foley is from Ballyhane Stud connections and her father, Michael Hickey, stands Doyen and Gamut at Sunnyhill Stud in Kildare. After the race a happy Foley said: “I took the hood off her and I was hoping she would run very well. Thankfully she did! It’s the first time I’ve had a runner in Galway so it’s great. I haven’t looked any further ahead with her. I’m delighted with that.” Foley made no reference to the fact that she had a more fancied runner in the race, Fleet Captain, who ran a disappointing 14 of 16. I’m satisfied that the money here was significant and Fleet Captain has dropped to a winning mark and could easily collect in the near future. He’s almost a coincidence selection but I’m happy to back him until I’m convinced he is not the horse he was (which I doubt). Although his best form is at Dundalk he has some form on other tracks notably Bellewstown, Gowran and Limerick – where he was particularly unlucky last June off his last winning mark of 72 and Fleet Captain has since been downgraded by one pound.

My old friend Joanna ran Antiquus here and Billy Lee almost got up in a driving finish. Antiquus appeared unfancied in the market and, rather strangely, they ran her again in the fillies’ listed race just two days later and she ran a very nice 4.25L 7 of 12 behind Johnny Murtagh’s Dalkova (trainer got the extra little spark needed for winners). The upshot of these runs is a likely belt from the handicapper and Ms. Morgan might be rueing the 2014 Galway festival for this particular filly. I’ll be watching with interest. This race also saw money for Kanes Pass, Lake George and Footprint (winner tonight!) and I expect it will be a decent contest in hindsight.

David Marnane wasn’t afraid to take on a Weld odds-on shot in the 7f maiden that evening but alas Henson finished where one might have expected-behind a Weld odds-on winner in an older horses’ maiden! In seven runs this horse has never been worse that fourth (twice). Marnane gets good copy from print and on line journalists (his winners tend to be backed) but he does have a very poor strike-rate over the years averaging just 7% since 2009. He took 9 runners to Galway and Henson was as close as he got to a winner. He does significantly better with his runners at Tipperary, Bellewstown and Fairyhose so this may be Henson’s destiny to eventually collect a race as he seems to have confounded his connections as to best trip so far. This was a maiden that also seemed to see support for Kinsella’s Ducky Mallon and its beyond me why trainers would risk handicap marks taking on “King Dermot” in maidens that the top tier of trainers are happy to let him have every year. I thought that The afore-mentioned Jane Foley’s Chief Suspect ran  a cracker here but I hope the placed horses don’t pay a penalty for finishing to close to Antique Platinum.

Wednesday:

Gusty Rock:

As a very young kid I recall a team leaving Dungarvan for Cheltenham back in the 70’s to support Meladon (successfully) to win the Triumph Hurdle for Adrian Maxwell and the “ebullient” local hotelier Niall Flynn. It literally took them a week to get home.
Pat Flynn trains Gusty Rock (a superbly-bred King’s Theatre who needs good ground) for the same Flynn family (no relation) and he previously handled the brilliant Aries Girl for these same connections.
Gusty Rock strikes me as being completely unexposed although a handicap mark on the flat of 84 looks very challenging based on a solitary run at Leopardstown when third to Marchese Marconi. There was quiet support for him to win the 2m maiden hurdle here and I think this horse will go places-whether he’s good enough for all the top 2m events on the flat or over jumps in time remains to be seen. I also think that Flynn ran one of his eye-wateringly handicappers here two days later but more of that anon.

Remainder of Galway to follow.

The horses are running well and Close One and Blossom Gate gave me a very profitable long weekend.

The idea of this thread was to take an interest in horses that seemed to attract some pre-race support – either off- or on-course -  and it eventually morphed into horse-to-follow sequence if their back-story fitted my own esoteric criteria.

Of 31 highlighted to follow 7 (of 27) managed to win on their very next start at odds of 6/4 (Henson), 10/11 (Gusty Rock), 9/2 (Yulong Xiongba), 15/8 (Lady Mega), 7/1 (Close One), 18/1 (Blossom Gate) and, arguably, 9/1 (Dedoctorsdaughter) for a possible profit at level stakes. Many argue that “level stakes” is a questionable strategy but at least the process managed to find a few winners.

Just Succeed And Excel and Ernest Shackleton managed to score on runs other than their next start.

The closest I got to a very big payday was last weekend when I kept the faith with Ramone and he just failed at very long odds at the Curragh-this when his previous three losing efforts had included a nomination by Kevin Blake. I certainly believe that some trainers are far more adept than others at training handicappers and Bill Farrell fits this “bill” to a tee. Stronger Than Me from the same hay barn has yet to re-appear.

Of the remaining horses if you are looking for some interesting horses to follow closely I would suggest keeping an eye on the following probably for a few runs as they could easily score at long odds.

Ramone: primed to win but I fear the ground may now go on him.

Some Character: possibly put by after two disappointing runs on tough, hard ground. The trainer doesn’t waste his time training mules so he may be a back-end nursery story or a more patient 2015 number. It won't surprise me if he comes on in leaps and bounds eventually.

Lucent Dream: a question of keeping the faith and seeing what the trainer does next-particularly trip-wise.

King Schultz: can’t believe money from this source was misguided but may be another longer term project.

Brog Deas Nua: connections of the opinion recently that a big day out is ever closer.

Dudes And Diamonds: probably campaigned too ambitiously and will now have to sit and suffer until 10lbs is lost from the rating. Not impossible this could be as early as March/April next year.

Massini’s Trap: Nash remains convinced this horse has big days in him. Think Galway Hurdle or 2m “GPT” and races of that quality.

Mister Victor: “Hail Mary” selection.

Two fillies I was very interested in at the start of the season were Karl Burke’s Odeliz and Halford’s Mizzava. Both ran in the Danny Cordell recently and ran with some credit. I will be really keen on both on rain-softened ground before the season ends as both have bits of form entitling them to maximum respect. Odeliz deserves to win at the highest level and Mizzava has connections that will earnestly hope for pattern-race success after previous black-type placings.