Irish Sports
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... that you get to see who's been swimming with no clothes on, as they say. And unfortunately, when you're standing there with the tide lapping about your ankles and you take a look around, you won't be looking at Gisele Bundchen or Sofia Vergara. No. What you'll see is a bunch of lads like myself - the wrong side of forty and carrying a liitle bit of condition and displaying the after-effects of "shrinkage" (women know about shrinkage, don't they??!!!).
Yes. We're heading in to the final round of group games. And this is where we'll sort the men from the boys - the lads who won't dip their toe in the ocean without a wetsuit from the hard chaws who look forward to a bit of North Atlantic skinny-dipping. So do you bet on the narrative? Or on a team's true level of ability and their underlying form? Will you risk backing the likes of Mexico or Holland or Italy to win when they only need a draw? Surely you'd be mad to put any money on England or Spain when their minds are already on their summer holidays? And Cameroon and Honduras have just been brutal and have nothing to play for anyway? Good luck with trying to pick a bet and make a profit this week!
After all of that build-up it doesn't look like I'll be having any bets today myself. Not unless Cameroon drift to 80.0. Or money comes against Holland or Mexico and their odds end up greater than 3.0.
It's hard to believe that we're half way through the tournament already - 32 games played, 32 to go - and after the second round of group games I'm now a little bit in profit. Five winning bets out of twenty-one placed in the outright match markets for a profit of €18.70 at €10 level stakes (or a 8.9% return on the total amount staked). But I also had a losing asian handicap bet on the very first game so in reality I'm barely treading water. For comparison, by my reckoning, if you'd simply backed the outsider with €10 stakes at BF SP in each of the 32 games so far, you'd have €48.90 in profits (roi 15.28%).
For my own information I have also kept track of how I would have done if I'd backed my selections in the asian handicap market, taking odds of 2.0 or higher, and that would have given me a profit of €39.03 (roi 18.58%). But I have a hunch (and I'd like to be corrected if there are any probability experts out there) that if you did have a method of calculating odds that gave you an edge which persisted over hundreds of matches that it wouldn't make a difference whether you backed at longer or shorter odds on the outright market or at around about evens on the a/h, that your profits would end trend towards the same level either way. As I say that's just a hunch and I'd be interested to know for sure.
Good luck!
Yes. We're heading in to the final round of group games. And this is where we'll sort the men from the boys - the lads who won't dip their toe in the ocean without a wetsuit from the hard chaws who look forward to a bit of North Atlantic skinny-dipping. So do you bet on the narrative? Or on a team's true level of ability and their underlying form? Will you risk backing the likes of Mexico or Holland or Italy to win when they only need a draw? Surely you'd be mad to put any money on England or Spain when their minds are already on their summer holidays? And Cameroon and Honduras have just been brutal and have nothing to play for anyway? Good luck with trying to pick a bet and make a profit this week!
After all of that build-up it doesn't look like I'll be having any bets today myself. Not unless Cameroon drift to 80.0. Or money comes against Holland or Mexico and their odds end up greater than 3.0.
It's hard to believe that we're half way through the tournament already - 32 games played, 32 to go - and after the second round of group games I'm now a little bit in profit. Five winning bets out of twenty-one placed in the outright match markets for a profit of €18.70 at €10 level stakes (or a 8.9% return on the total amount staked). But I also had a losing asian handicap bet on the very first game so in reality I'm barely treading water. For comparison, by my reckoning, if you'd simply backed the outsider with €10 stakes at BF SP in each of the 32 games so far, you'd have €48.90 in profits (roi 15.28%).
For my own information I have also kept track of how I would have done if I'd backed my selections in the asian handicap market, taking odds of 2.0 or higher, and that would have given me a profit of €39.03 (roi 18.58%). But I have a hunch (and I'd like to be corrected if there are any probability experts out there) that if you did have a method of calculating odds that gave you an edge which persisted over hundreds of matches that it wouldn't make a difference whether you backed at longer or shorter odds on the outright market or at around about evens on the a/h, that your profits would end trend towards the same level either way. As I say that's just a hunch and I'd be interested to know for sure.
Good luck!
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Fair play on your thoughts on the WC so far Loligo,i,ve enjoyed them,you aren,t doing too bad.
Can imagine for others tis like a scene maybe Munch or Bosch would paint on Inchydoney beach,boats sinking,fat wans in two pieces pure white on the waters edge,people drowning being thrown bars of life bouy instead of the roundy thing,not at all pretty for fav backers. Like others finding it hard going myself at times as some very poor matches the last couple of days.Likes of Algeria,Iran, US Mexico doing well for the minnows,which isn,t a bad thing in a non punting sense. New phase now with some having nothing to play for and others fighting to qualify and or playing to top group for an easier 2nd rd match. In terms of today not sure what Spain we will see,think the Aussies could be up for it but no bet, with Croatia having to win they are my sole bet today at 2.8,be very tight as Mexico did well against Brazil. Haven,t seen DJ876 for a while,he,d be the fella in regards the probability odds, tend to think myself they are more innate but that's neither here nor there. Best of luck for the 2nd half. |
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I cant believe the price on Croatia this evening. They were very solid around 2.52-2.56 for days, now 2.94. Have they injury worries? I haven't seen any. Personally think they a cut above Mexico, and will get the win they need.
Also backed the Dutch against a limited Chile. They created very little in either match, and were lucky to win both. Everyone expects Brazil to slaughter Cameroon, but that is reflected in the overs/unders markets, so have had a bit on under 2.5 goals at 3.1. Got a bit of the 16-1 on Australia to beat Spain the other night, so hopefully they are as up for it as I think they will be. Spain should win, and have been nowhere near as bad as the results suggest, but with all they have achieved they might view this game more as a nuisance than a challenge. |
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I'd be pro Chile I think. Holland have only two players and one of them ain't playing. Much like Bayern, stop Robben and you stop Holland.
Chile have more to play for, work very hard, and have a very attacking formation. Shame Vidal misses out. Chile Draw NO Bet for me. |
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Chile also dealt with Australia with more ease than Netherlands did.
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Manchester United should be all over that Vidal and Sanchez as well even. Two lads perfectly suited to the English game.
Netherlands have De Guzman in midfield and Vlaar at the back, as said, they have two class players. At 30, Robben is still as good a winger as there is around. Agree that he is more important than RVP. No opinion on the match itself, could go any old way, as Vidal said, Chile play 'suicidal' football. |
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Am on a bad run. Sniffed a goal coming for the Dutch from a set piece and got out of that one, thankfully.
Robben probably the player of the tournament to date. Why doesn't someone kick him? We know he isn't that tough. Sacrifice a yellow, hope to slow him down. |
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Ozymandius 23 Jun 14 18:58
Am on a bad run. Sniffed a goal coming for the Dutch from a set piece and got out of that one, thankfully...Classic aftertiming if I ever saw it....  |
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Workrider.........He would remind you of a certain BOOM merchant who has gone into hiding.
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Yeah Rocket is keeping mum , Tony is on his trail Gant...
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Tony has him rumbled.
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Brazil 1.11. Crazy. They are likely to win, but not that likely!!
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Cameroon certainly dont deserve to be behind.
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Chile will beat Brazil.
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I don't think a whole lot of Chile either though Wildman. They were lucky to win their opening two games, creating very little, and were poor again today. Though the pressure will be cranking up on Brazil, so it certainly wouldn't be a surprise. Once Brazil met someone half decent, they be found out.
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Mexicans shading the other one,tense match,can see a big free for all in the 2nd half.
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Yeah, Croatia will have to get a bit more adventurous. Still fancy them.
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Possibility that Brazil don't want to win group. They may be keeping an eye on other game and consider that their prospects of winning WC would be better served by coming second in group. They may have a preference for playing Holland over Chile and then likely taking on C Rica or possibly Ivory Coast in qtr final. Just a thought.
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Brazil have beaten Chile 15 times in their last 16 meetings
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Handy win in the end for Mexico,tough opponents.
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Yeah, was thoroughly deserved.
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Diving in here and not even checking to see the tide is in or not,suppose last nights mistake was not factoring in the conditions as they clearly suited the Mexicans much better as the Croatian wilt in the 2nd half showed.
Quiet boy with todays matches, a small stake tilt at a 70,000/1 shot be my play with a yankee on Costa Rica,Italy,Columbia and Ivory Coast to be leading at ht and finish in a draw.(2 returns 250/1 approx). GL with your picks. |
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Howryanow Pa
At least watching the football is saving your from seeing the horrors down in Inchydoney! I'm taking the plunge as well. Uruguay (ie Suarez) should really be favourites against Italy so I'll have some of that 2/1 please. Also backing Japan and Greece later on. So yeah, essentially I'm doing the complete opposite of you! |
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Nyum Nyum Nyum Deeelish
I can't believe Suarez has done that again - after the season just past in England I genuinely thought he'd left that sort of carry-on behind him. He's some dopey eejit (and I'm a Liverpool fan) |
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Backed Japan at 3.8. Doesn't look like I'll get the 4.5 I want on Greece
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japs looking like they've had an extra chilli in their ramen tonight
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dopey eejit........loligo you must be the most polite person I have ever come across.
He's a fuc*in scumbag! |
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Ok. So he's a dopey fukcn scumbag eejit then!
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50/1 PLUS CHILE, will do for me ap.
Brazil are brutal.........whatever that outcome....... |
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That's not a bad bet, The Pecker. Brazil don't give the impression of being really well organised and capable of dominating, and look like they'll be found out. I just hope Chile play the same way against them as they did when they played Spain.
For me today, I'm definitely backing Nigeria, hoping for 12.0 but will take 11 or 10 before kick off. Honduras (and to a lesser extent Ecuador) may drift out to backable odds but are too short for me at the moment. |
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Played well loligo,Argentina have the front half sorted but work needed in defence.
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No joy with Nigeria in the end yesterday - Messi!
Today I've backed the US again, at 9.2 pre-match. And later on will be laying the Russians (hopefully they'll go to odds on first) and also backing Korea - they don't have much class but do have plenty of huff and puff. |
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So now it's getting more serious. The profits took a hit during the last round of group games - I'm just barely still in the black - standing at €5.14 up off 27 bets at a flat €10. The asian handicaps would have been in a better state - although down from +€39.08 to +€36.84. But anybody who stuck with backing outsiders blindly would have been hammered - going from +€48.90 to losses of €63.20 on 48x€10 bets in total.
Anyway. I'm no longer confident that I'll make enough to finance a trip to Rio for the final! But am continuing on with the experiment. I'm looking to get matched on Chile at 7.4 or higher. And will be backing Uruguay in the late match also. Good luck all. |
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Hard lines there Loligo, Chile playing very well, like to see them win the ET.
Against you with Uruguay,think they are very poor even if they had Saurez, thought the odds against was generous for the Colombians. Doing well to be in the black,not as good as that other cephalopod "Paul" in the last WC but not bad either.GL. |
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Columbia odds against is an early Christmas present.Will win comfortably imo
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I'm on anyway.
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I was on Brazil Columbia BTTS and both to win but Mr Webb has scuppered that particular bet!
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Its funny though..uUruguay have beaten England and Italy and are 3/1..Columbia have beaten nobody.
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Well depend what way you look at it oz,They put 3 past Greece who very rarely concede many goals,Japan were very poor,
Ivory Coast decent on their day,i think it's more to do with how they dispatched with these teams that make them favourites, That and the fact Hannibal Lecter isn't around,Oh and they have James Rodriguez  |
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I'm on them...but I will be surprised if it is comfortable. here's hoping!
COME ON BRASIL! |