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19 Jun 14
23:29
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Date Joined:
27 Sep 11
I haven't looked at many of the races in detail tomorrow, but one I am very interested in is Western Hymn in the King Edward.
He looked a horse with plenty of potential when heading to Epsom for the Derby. Indeed I backed him at 12-1 without Australia on the morning of the race, in the belief he was one of the only contenders who could possibly have troubled the winner. He didn't. But he had been backed into 10-1 in the main market, suggesting there were plenty who expected him to.
But although he wouldn't have got anywhere near the winner, he should have finished a bit closer. Suffering first from scrimmaging, and then totally not handling the downhill run and Tattenham corner, he finally organised himself over a furlong out, and finished his race very well. It was the first time he really had to race, and will have learnt a lot from it.
Bound to improve for the experience, and just as certain to appreciate Ascots more conventional track more, he looks very big at 6-1. There is nothing in this race that would have started anywhere near 10-1 for the Derby, including Adelaide, and he didn't do much there to temper enthusiasm in his future.
He looked a horse with plenty of potential when heading to Epsom for the Derby. Indeed I backed him at 12-1 without Australia on the morning of the race, in the belief he was one of the only contenders who could possibly have troubled the winner. He didn't. But he had been backed into 10-1 in the main market, suggesting there were plenty who expected him to.
But although he wouldn't have got anywhere near the winner, he should have finished a bit closer. Suffering first from scrimmaging, and then totally not handling the downhill run and Tattenham corner, he finally organised himself over a furlong out, and finished his race very well. It was the first time he really had to race, and will have learnt a lot from it.
Bound to improve for the experience, and just as certain to appreciate Ascots more conventional track more, he looks very big at 6-1. There is nothing in this race that would have started anywhere near 10-1 for the Derby, including Adelaide, and he didn't do much there to temper enthusiasm in his future.
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Jacks Revenge e/w in the last at 33/1 only play on the card for me.
Elsewhere, Aqua Ardens 4.45 Redcar should get the job done at 9/4.
Elsewhere, Aqua Ardens 4.45 Redcar should get the job done at 9/4.
Eagle Top for me Callit , cant see BUICK walking away from a winner , stable mate of your fancy , I'd say Buick is no fool and would not like someone else taking his thunder ..Backed it e/w @ 8.8 and 2.8 for the place...Off to limerick then Fota , a hard life indeed ...Good Luck..
2:30 – Albany Stakes
This looks a very good renewal of this contest with a host of really promising fillies a line up which could stand up to comparison with Wednesday’s Queen Mary.
Patience Alexander brings easily the best form into the race by virtue of her win at York, when she has the Queen Mary second, Tiggy Wiggy, in the runner up position in that contest. She sets the standard, but there are some really promising once raced fillies that are taking her on today and we are happy to oppose her.
Sexy Legs looks a classy daughter of Dutch Art that ran a really promising race on her debut at the Curragh just under a month ago, when she was second to Jeanne Girl. She should improve for the run and better ground and her trainer likes to target Ascot with his promising juvenile fillies.
However our selection is the Charlie Appleby trained Bitter Lake. She was very impressive on her Newmarket debut three weeks ago, when she overcame trouble in running to show a very smart turn of foot in winning by 1.25 lengths from Kinematic. The form does not look that solid as it stands, but this half sister to the Fillies Mile winner Lyric of Light, looked like a top class juvenile in the making and she is our pick at 11/1 with Bet365, who are paying 4 places each way.
3:05 – Wolferton Handicap
Bold Sniper is all the rage for this valuable handicap and his reappearance effort at Newmarket when 3rd over a trip that was too short for him, marks him down as the one to beat. He has been raised 3lb for that effort and will come on plenty for the run, while also enjoying the step up to 10 furlongs. However he is a quirky sort and would prefer 12 furlongs and is just not the sort of horse that we want to be taking short odds about.
Contributer and Saxo Jack are the two that interest us in this race. The former could still be nicely handicap based on his smart 3 year old form on a sound surface and he looked like he had progressed during the winner when quite an impressive winner of the Listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton in March. His 3rd to Noble Mission last time can be forgiven as he was outclassed and would probably have hated the ground. He looks to have a sound chance at 16/1.
Saxo Jack is also of major interest based on his 3 year old form for Ger Lyons when he was an impressive winner off 89 at Dundalk and then a really eye catching 4th at Newbury off 97 on his last run in September. He got into a state before that race and got blocked in his run, but stayed on strongly under hands and heels to finish 4th and promising to do much better when he gets the run of the race. He has raced 3 times in Dubai since then and won off a mark of 100 in January. Whether he will be better with a little bit of cut in the ground is the question, but he looks to be well enough handicapped off 105 and should play a hand in the finish. Rather than take on Bold Sniper though, it might be best to play in the without the favourite market with our selections.
Ascot 3:45 – King Edward VII Stakes
This race throws up the best bet of the day and our strongest bet since Anthem Alexander on Wednesday.
The horse that we really like is Adelaide. He is by Galileo out of a very smart mare that used to be trained by Ger Lyons. He looked good on his Leopardstown debut last season, ran a race full of promise on his return this season at Longchamp and was very impressive to the eye when winning a race that he was fully entitled to win, at the Curragh last time.
His two wins have been on soft or heavy ground, but he has the action of a horse that will be better on a decent surface. He looks like a horse that will travel well and has the ability to quicken off a decent pace. He could be very good and really should be winning this race with a bit to spare, before possibly stepping up in grade for something like the Coral Eclipse next time.
Eagle Top did it very nicely on his debut, but was disappointing next time (stories reported that he was coughing however). Snow Sky looks a little quirky and despite winning the Derby Trial at Lingfield last time, he may be better in a strongly run 10 furlong race, while the same could be said for Miners Lamp. The latter is a horse that is difficult to settle, but he looked to be at the end of his stamina limit last time over this trip at Newmarket and this might be too much for him.
However despite the promising colts that are in opposition, Adelaide looks like a Group 1 horse running against inferior opposition and he may not start at the 15/8 that is currently on offer, with 6/4 a possible SP.
4:25 – Coronation Stakes:
Despite being the headline race of the day, it is the one that makes the least appeal from a betting point of view. We have a market which features a John Oxx filly in My Titania, who is making her seasonal debut, racing against a number of fillies who have to leave some very disappointing runs in the 1,000 Guineas behind them, in Rizeena and Tapestry. The same can be said for the French filly Lesstalk In Paris, who ran no sort of race in the French equivalent.
Easily the most solid filly based on form this season is the Olly Stevens trained Lightning Queen and we were having a bet on the race, she would be our pick. However with so much uncertainty surrounding a number of the market principals, we are happy to watch this unfold without being financially tied to the outcome.
5:00 – Queens Vase:
This race is always an enthralling contest as we can see St Leger candidates, next year’s Gold Cup prospects and also horses that could be trying to break their maiden at Stratford and Ffos Las this time next year over obstacles.
Mark Johnston and Aidan O’Brien have dominated this race over the past 10 years with 4 wins for the former and 3 wins for the latter. The other two trainers to have landed the prize, Sir Michael Stoute (2) and Saeed Bin Suroor, are not represented this year.
Johnston relies on one horse this year in a race that he is usually mob handed in and Hartnell has looked like a stayer in the making on his runs as a juvenile and two starts this year. He looks fairly solid at 4/1 despite concerns that the ground may be on the fast side for him.
The market looks to be affording a little too much respect for the John Gosden trained Marzocco and despite his promising 2nd to Observational last time, he makes limited appeal at 9/4.
The Ballydoyle trained Century would have made plenty of appeal in the King Edward VII race, if he had been sent there instead of Adelaide. He ran a race full of promise in the Dee Stakes at Chester last time, when he was staying on very well after getting outpaced and not handling that greyhound track. If he stays the trip he will take a lot of beating, but there is a fair amount of speed on his dam side and there has to be a slight question mark about it.
The one horse that looks as though he could improve significantly for the step up to 2 miles is the Marco Botti trained Min Alemarat. He is a Galileo colt out of a half sister to Pilsudski and he has looked an out and out stayer on his 3 starts so far. In addition to this he has looked green and a slow learner, so the fact that he has earned a handicap mark of 92, with so much more improvement that could be forthcoming over staying distances, makes him a very interesting proposition at 8/1.
He trounced quite a weak field last time and that looks like a lovely warm up for a race such as this and his staying on 2nd to Wrangler on his previous outing, has been boosted by wins for the winner and the 3rd since. He is our pick each way, with so much upside to him over this distance.
5:35 – Buckingham Palace Stakes
A really difficult handicap to end proceedings, but Fort Knox is worth chancing, despite the fact that the results this week suggest that a low draw will be problematical.
He was a decent 3 year old for Johnny Murtagh last season, when he won his first start and ran with credit throughout the season. However he looks as though he could have improved significantly through the winter based on his effort at Newbury. He was held up off the pace by Ryan Moore and was travelling comfortably when getting absolutely no run at the 2 furlong marker. Moore had to carry him back, switch him to the stands side and then make his effort again. The response he got from his mount was extremely impressive as he sprinted home to grab second on the line. The winner Chill The Kite, franked the form in the Royal Hunt Cup and off a 1lb higher, Fort Knox looks very well in.
The concern here is the draw, as high numbers have been favoured all week. It is hoped that the watering might balance this out today, but Richard Hughes is probably going to have to try and get across to the stand side group, then track the pace and try and win his race in the final furlong. Even if he does not prove successful today, Fort Knox will be worth following off this mark and the 14/1 means we have to back him each way.
Of those drawn high, Horsted Keynes has looked really progressive and won with any amount in hand last time at Yarmouth. He has been saddled with an 11lb rise for that effort, but he could prove to be better than a handicapper and has to be given string consideration in this finale.
This looks a very good renewal of this contest with a host of really promising fillies a line up which could stand up to comparison with Wednesday’s Queen Mary.
Patience Alexander brings easily the best form into the race by virtue of her win at York, when she has the Queen Mary second, Tiggy Wiggy, in the runner up position in that contest. She sets the standard, but there are some really promising once raced fillies that are taking her on today and we are happy to oppose her.
Sexy Legs looks a classy daughter of Dutch Art that ran a really promising race on her debut at the Curragh just under a month ago, when she was second to Jeanne Girl. She should improve for the run and better ground and her trainer likes to target Ascot with his promising juvenile fillies.
However our selection is the Charlie Appleby trained Bitter Lake. She was very impressive on her Newmarket debut three weeks ago, when she overcame trouble in running to show a very smart turn of foot in winning by 1.25 lengths from Kinematic. The form does not look that solid as it stands, but this half sister to the Fillies Mile winner Lyric of Light, looked like a top class juvenile in the making and she is our pick at 11/1 with Bet365, who are paying 4 places each way.
3:05 – Wolferton Handicap
Bold Sniper is all the rage for this valuable handicap and his reappearance effort at Newmarket when 3rd over a trip that was too short for him, marks him down as the one to beat. He has been raised 3lb for that effort and will come on plenty for the run, while also enjoying the step up to 10 furlongs. However he is a quirky sort and would prefer 12 furlongs and is just not the sort of horse that we want to be taking short odds about.
Contributer and Saxo Jack are the two that interest us in this race. The former could still be nicely handicap based on his smart 3 year old form on a sound surface and he looked like he had progressed during the winner when quite an impressive winner of the Listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton in March. His 3rd to Noble Mission last time can be forgiven as he was outclassed and would probably have hated the ground. He looks to have a sound chance at 16/1.
Saxo Jack is also of major interest based on his 3 year old form for Ger Lyons when he was an impressive winner off 89 at Dundalk and then a really eye catching 4th at Newbury off 97 on his last run in September. He got into a state before that race and got blocked in his run, but stayed on strongly under hands and heels to finish 4th and promising to do much better when he gets the run of the race. He has raced 3 times in Dubai since then and won off a mark of 100 in January. Whether he will be better with a little bit of cut in the ground is the question, but he looks to be well enough handicapped off 105 and should play a hand in the finish. Rather than take on Bold Sniper though, it might be best to play in the without the favourite market with our selections.
Ascot 3:45 – King Edward VII Stakes
This race throws up the best bet of the day and our strongest bet since Anthem Alexander on Wednesday.
The horse that we really like is Adelaide. He is by Galileo out of a very smart mare that used to be trained by Ger Lyons. He looked good on his Leopardstown debut last season, ran a race full of promise on his return this season at Longchamp and was very impressive to the eye when winning a race that he was fully entitled to win, at the Curragh last time.
His two wins have been on soft or heavy ground, but he has the action of a horse that will be better on a decent surface. He looks like a horse that will travel well and has the ability to quicken off a decent pace. He could be very good and really should be winning this race with a bit to spare, before possibly stepping up in grade for something like the Coral Eclipse next time.
Eagle Top did it very nicely on his debut, but was disappointing next time (stories reported that he was coughing however). Snow Sky looks a little quirky and despite winning the Derby Trial at Lingfield last time, he may be better in a strongly run 10 furlong race, while the same could be said for Miners Lamp. The latter is a horse that is difficult to settle, but he looked to be at the end of his stamina limit last time over this trip at Newmarket and this might be too much for him.
However despite the promising colts that are in opposition, Adelaide looks like a Group 1 horse running against inferior opposition and he may not start at the 15/8 that is currently on offer, with 6/4 a possible SP.
4:25 – Coronation Stakes:
Despite being the headline race of the day, it is the one that makes the least appeal from a betting point of view. We have a market which features a John Oxx filly in My Titania, who is making her seasonal debut, racing against a number of fillies who have to leave some very disappointing runs in the 1,000 Guineas behind them, in Rizeena and Tapestry. The same can be said for the French filly Lesstalk In Paris, who ran no sort of race in the French equivalent.
Easily the most solid filly based on form this season is the Olly Stevens trained Lightning Queen and we were having a bet on the race, she would be our pick. However with so much uncertainty surrounding a number of the market principals, we are happy to watch this unfold without being financially tied to the outcome.
5:00 – Queens Vase:
This race is always an enthralling contest as we can see St Leger candidates, next year’s Gold Cup prospects and also horses that could be trying to break their maiden at Stratford and Ffos Las this time next year over obstacles.
Mark Johnston and Aidan O’Brien have dominated this race over the past 10 years with 4 wins for the former and 3 wins for the latter. The other two trainers to have landed the prize, Sir Michael Stoute (2) and Saeed Bin Suroor, are not represented this year.
Johnston relies on one horse this year in a race that he is usually mob handed in and Hartnell has looked like a stayer in the making on his runs as a juvenile and two starts this year. He looks fairly solid at 4/1 despite concerns that the ground may be on the fast side for him.
The market looks to be affording a little too much respect for the John Gosden trained Marzocco and despite his promising 2nd to Observational last time, he makes limited appeal at 9/4.
The Ballydoyle trained Century would have made plenty of appeal in the King Edward VII race, if he had been sent there instead of Adelaide. He ran a race full of promise in the Dee Stakes at Chester last time, when he was staying on very well after getting outpaced and not handling that greyhound track. If he stays the trip he will take a lot of beating, but there is a fair amount of speed on his dam side and there has to be a slight question mark about it.
The one horse that looks as though he could improve significantly for the step up to 2 miles is the Marco Botti trained Min Alemarat. He is a Galileo colt out of a half sister to Pilsudski and he has looked an out and out stayer on his 3 starts so far. In addition to this he has looked green and a slow learner, so the fact that he has earned a handicap mark of 92, with so much more improvement that could be forthcoming over staying distances, makes him a very interesting proposition at 8/1.
He trounced quite a weak field last time and that looks like a lovely warm up for a race such as this and his staying on 2nd to Wrangler on his previous outing, has been boosted by wins for the winner and the 3rd since. He is our pick each way, with so much upside to him over this distance.
5:35 – Buckingham Palace Stakes
A really difficult handicap to end proceedings, but Fort Knox is worth chancing, despite the fact that the results this week suggest that a low draw will be problematical.
He was a decent 3 year old for Johnny Murtagh last season, when he won his first start and ran with credit throughout the season. However he looks as though he could have improved significantly through the winter based on his effort at Newbury. He was held up off the pace by Ryan Moore and was travelling comfortably when getting absolutely no run at the 2 furlong marker. Moore had to carry him back, switch him to the stands side and then make his effort again. The response he got from his mount was extremely impressive as he sprinted home to grab second on the line. The winner Chill The Kite, franked the form in the Royal Hunt Cup and off a 1lb higher, Fort Knox looks very well in.
The concern here is the draw, as high numbers have been favoured all week. It is hoped that the watering might balance this out today, but Richard Hughes is probably going to have to try and get across to the stand side group, then track the pace and try and win his race in the final furlong. Even if he does not prove successful today, Fort Knox will be worth following off this mark and the 14/1 means we have to back him each way.
Of those drawn high, Horsted Keynes has looked really progressive and won with any amount in hand last time at Yarmouth. He has been saddled with an 11lb rise for that effort, but he could prove to be better than a handicapper and has to be given string consideration in this finale.
These are good write-ups if you have the time and interest to peruse them .
Only horse I have backed today is Hartnell , 9/2 .
Interesting racing today , but limited financial involvement .
Only horse I have backed today is Hartnell , 9/2 .
Interesting racing today , but limited financial involvement .
WD WR, was friendless in the market, Betfair SP of 17.5. I don't think Western Hymn would have got near that lad! Coolmore obviously though Adelaide was a steering job considering the weight of money, when he had looked short enough at morning prices. Could turn out to be a very dedent winner. Be interesting to see him line up at The Curragh.
Doubt it as it was the 3rd that the damage was done to, few nice winners on the thread,wd lads.
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